Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares

You know, I kinda hate picking these Fight Night fights 'cause most fights involve at least one guy I've never heard of or know little about. Last time out, I think I got killed in my predictions. Oh well, let's take another shot at this:

Nate Marquardt vs Rousimar Palhares (middleweight)
This is a big step up for Palhares. Sure, he's beaten Ivan Salaverry and Jeremy Horn, but they weren't title contenders at the time (Marquardt has beaten both as well). And he did lose to Dan Henderson who was on his way to title contention. Nate Marquardt is too smart to get submitted and is likely too big for Palhares to handle. I'm picking Marquardt.

Efrain Escudero vs Charles Oliveira (lightweight)
Good match up featuring two up and comers with great records. Folks know Escudero from TUF, but who's the other guy, right? Oliveira has an unblemished record and finishes fights. Although I could see Efrain laying and praying a victory, I'm gonna pick the upset and take Oliveira.

Jim Miller vs Gleison Tibau (lightweight)
Tibau is good and has lost to some decent fighters, but Miller is a beast and has lost to Gray Maynard and Frank Edgar - the top two dogs in the division. I bet Miller finds a way to win. I'm picking Miller.

Ross Pearson vs Cole Miller (lightweight)
Another good match up. Miller is the tall finesse guy whereas Pearson likes to stand and bang. Pearson is no joke on the ground, but I don't think he can hang with Miller. If it goes to the ground, I've got Miller. I think it will, so, yup: I'm picking Miller.

Yves Edwards vs John Gunderson (lightweight)
Edwards is a journeyman whose best days are likely behind him. Gunderson is hardly a stud, so this is a bit of a crappy match up. It's a toss up, really. No way I'm picking a guy who claims his discipline is "thugitsu". Eff that. I'm picking Gunderson.

Jared Hamman vs Kyle Kingsbury (light heavyweight)
Kingsbury, who had a stint on TUF, hasn't exactly been impressive, but the UFC has kept him around. Hamman is no big whoop (and he certainly doesn't look like much), but has won Fight of the Night, which means he's got some stones. I don't like either guy particularly, but Hamman has the better record, and I'll assume there's a reason. I'll pick Hamman.

Tomasz Drwal vs Dave Branch (middleweight)
Dave who? Oh right, this is the guy who got slammed by Gerald Harris. Ok. Drwal on the other hand has fought some decent opponents and has come out with a decent record. He's susceptible to submissions, but I still think he'll take it. I'll take Drwal.

Rich Attonito vs Rafael Natal (middleweight)
Attonito didn't exactly turn my crank during TUF, but he was a sympathetic character so here he is. Natal doens't have a profile pic on the UFC website - not a good sign. He does have some impressive wins, though, including one over Travis Lutter by TKO. I'm gonna pick another dark horse and go with Natal.

TJ Waldburger vs David Mitchell (welterweight?)
...Who? For better or for worse, Waldburger's fights don't last long. Mitchell is another guy with no profile pic - and no Wikipedia entry! - but he has an unblemished record and finishes fights fast - usually by submission. Sure, let's pick another dark horse and take Mitchell. Let's hope they steal the show.

Brian Foster vs Forrest Petz (welterweight)
Petz has a good record but has lost every fight against a significant opponent. Brian Foster likes to keep his nights short and has won most of those fights. I'll pick Foster.

UFC 114 Picks

Weird card. This is one of those cards that doesn't look like much on the surface, but I'm betting will actually surprise some folks and provide decent entertainment.

Quinton Rampage Jackson vs Rashad Evans (light heavyweight)
This is the long-awaited fight stemming from The Ultimate Fighter season where these two acted as coaches. The fight was delayed 'cause Jackson took a role in the A-Team movie, much to the disgust and chagrin of the UFC who had gone to the trouble of booking the event in Memphis, Jackson's hometown. Who will win the fight? Hard to say. Both guys have power, Rashad has wrestling skills and speed, so he should get the nod. But Jackson is one of those guys who can end the night with one quick punch as we saw against Wanderlei and others. Jackson has been off for a long time, though, so there's no telling what kind fo shape he'll be in. I can see this fight being dull as hell if Evans can take Jackson down and stay on top. I could also see this fight ending with a highlight-reel knockout. There's a lot on the line here, as the winner is expected to get the first shot at champion Rua. For that reason, I bet Rashad plays it smart, keeps his distance, then takes Jackson down with a quick shot. Jackson, as we saw against Griffin, has zero ability to get off his back. Rashad will do that for 15 minutes and get the nod. Boring, but effective. I'm picking Evans.

Michael Bisping vs Dan Miller (middleweight)
Michael Bisping is the favourite, having had bigger fights and having been a star on TUF. Don't count Miller out, though. Sure, he's coming off two losses, but they were to Demian Maia and Chael Sonnen who are title contenders. Bisping isn't quite in that class, despite what he might think. Before that, Miller had reeled off three straight wins to kick off his UFC career, two by first round submission. We haven't seen Bisping on his back much (at least not conscious) so it's hard to say how he'd fare if Miller got him down. I'm going with the upset. I bet Miller, who can push the pace just like Bisping, gets Bisping down and submits him or earns the decision. I'll take Miller.

Todd Duffee vs Mike Russow (heavyweight)
Duffee holds the UFC record for fastest knockout (7 seconds) and it may not have been a fluke. He has a 15-second win and a 16-second win. Wow. This guy has crazy power. Russow, though, has a great record himself and tends to submit guys in the first round. So the question may be whether Russow can get Duffee on the ground. I'm gonna say...yes. Again, I'm gonna pick the dog and go with Russow by submission. I bet experience pays off in this one.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs Jason Brilz (light heavyweight)
This one is a bit of a disappointment, of course, as it was supposed to be Nogueira versus Forrest Griffin. Nogueira is one of the UFC's new darlings and he hasn't disappointed yet. He has a terrific record (18-3) including wins over Dan Henderson, Luiz Cane, Vladimir Matyushenko, and two over Strikeforce Heavyweight champ Alistair Overeem. Brilz, on the other hand, is no pushover. He's at 18-2, though his fights have been mostly agianst mid-carders. This could be a great fight. If Brilz wins, it'd be a huge launching pad for him. But I don't see it happeneing. I'm picking Nogueira.

Diego Sanchez vs John Hathaway (welterweight)
I have no idea why Diego is back at welterweight. Lightweight seemed perfect for him and he was clearly on the rise there. A loss to BJ Penn is no tragedy and he might have been right back in the mix if the UFC staged a Sanchez-Florian rematch. Inexplicably, he has jumped back up to welterweight where he is a small fish in a very big pond, ruled by the biggest shark in the aquarium, GSP. Honestly, WTF? Diego seems to have lost a bit of steam recently, going to decision far too often after previously overwhleming his opponents. Hathaway has a perfect record, but hasn't fought anyone anywhere near Diego's status. This is a huge fight for him. If he wins, he'll be in title contention quick. If Diego wins, I'm not sure the same holds true (unless the UFC is desperate for new opponents for GSP). If Diego loses...well...zoinks, yo. I'm betting Diego finds a way to win this one, if only by experience.

Amir Sadollah vs Dong Hyun Kim (welterweight)
Amir was the surprising winner of TUF 7 and has gone 2-1 since with some impressive cardio work. Kim is "The Stun Gun" and although he was impressive in his debut, has been less than spectacular since. His loss to Karo Parisyan was overtruned after Karo tested positive for banned painkillers, so he maintains his undefeated record (12-0-1 [1]). Still, I'm gonna bet Kim finds a way to overwhelm Sadollah and finish him before it reaches a decision. I'm picking Kim.

Efrain Escudero vs Dan Lauzon (lightweight)
Another TUF winner in Escudero. He has looked pretty good, but is coming off a loss. Lauzon is the brother of TUF competitor Joe Lauzon, but hasn't impressed me all tnat much, despite his record. Both of these fighters are known for their submission skills and ending fights early. This could be the fight of the night. I'll pick Escudero.

Melvin Guillard vs Waylon Rowe (lightweight)
Guillard was a rising star once upon a time. Rowe doesn't even have a Wikipedia page. That gives you some idea how much Guillard's stock has fallen. Both of these guys are known for their KO power. This could be a barnburner and over quick. Since Guillard doesn't have to worry about submissions, he may actually win this one (and not undeservedly, like he did against Ronnys Torres). I'll pick Guillard.

Luiz Cane vs Cyrille Diabate (light heavyweight)
Cane will be looking to rebound form his loss to Little Nog. I'd never heard of Diabate, but he has a good record and has fought some big names (and lost, mind you). Still, I'm gonna pick Cane.

Aaron Riley vs Joe Brammer (lightweight)
Riley is one of those fighters who is tough to peg. He looks good once, then crap the next. Brammer has a nice record to start his career but has lost to the only name he's faced. I'm gonna pick Riley on experience.

Jesse Forbes vs Ryan Jensen (middleweight?)
A lot was expected from Forbes as he competed in TUF 3, but he hasn't lived up to the hype (certainly not his own!). He's been fighting in the smaller circuits for a while, ammassing a respectable record (13-4). Jensen has had a rough go recently, going 3-5 after being 11-1. But he was thrown to the wolves in his early UFC days, losing to Demian Maia and Thales Leites. I'm not sure how he has managed to stick around this second time around, going 1-2 in his last three UFC fights. This is one of those fights where the winner earns a reprieve and the loser goes home, I bet. Neither of these guys is used to going the distance, so this could be another quick one. I'll pick...Jensen.

Who you got?

UFC 113 Montreal Picks

Not a lot of time to fart around today, so let's get to the picks for UFC 113 in Montreal.

Lyoto Machida vs Shogun Rua (light heavyweight) - This the "much anticipated" sequel to UFC 104 when a controversial decision prompted the UFC to grant an "immediate" rematch. As I said before, I didn't think Rua deserved the original title fight, but, hey, I don't get to pick the fights, so here we are. I'm not sure either of these guys are in the top two in this division, but circumstances have brought them here. I'm going to assume that Machida will be smarter this time and not be surprised by Rua's leg chops. I'll pick Machida. If Rua wins, every fighter who is Forrest Griffin or beaten Forrest Griffin will be chomping at the bit for a shot.

Josh Koscheck vs Paul Daley (welterweight) - If they stay on the feet, Daley will KO the loud-mouthed bleach blonde but if Koscheck can get the fight to the ground, look for him to lay and pray a decision. Koscheck is cocky enough to challenge Daley on his feet, so I'll pick Daley.

Sam Stout vs Jeremy Stephens (lightweight) - Can I really go against the Canadian? I dunno. Stout can be impressive, but at times he is predictable and one-dimensional. He tends to stand and box, but this is MMA not the WBC. Stephens is a spark plug. Still, I’ll pick Stout by decision.

Kimbo Slice vs Matt Mitrione (heavyweight) – Why does Kimbo fight at heavyweight and not light heavy? I don’t get it. He’s listed at 215, so can’t he cut 10 pounds? It puts him at a disadvantage against bigger, heavier guys. Mitrione isn’t the biggest heavyweight around, but he’s close enough. If Mitrione had serious wrestling skills, I’d pick him in a heartbeat, but he tends to stand and bang. He’s got the fists to back it up, too. My head says to pick Mitrione, but Kimbo needs this win and he is being fed his type of opponent. I’ll pick Kimbo for fun, but I wouldn’t lay money on it.

Patrick Cote vs Alan Belcher (middleweight) – Identical records, but Belcher is the bigger guy and has more skills. Belcher seems to always might mid-card guys whereas Cote has a little more time in the sun thanks to matches against Tito Ortiz, Anderson Silva and his TUF experience. When in doubt, go with the Canadian, I guess. I’ll pick Cote.

Joe Doerksen vs Tom Lawlor (middleweight) – Doerksen has an insane amount of experience and, well, he’s Canadian. Lawlor is a wrestler, Doerksen is a JJ guy. I’ll got with Team Canada again. Doerksen for the nod.

Marcus Davis vs Jonathan Goulet (welterweight) – I’m picking Davis. No doubt about it. If you’re betting on Goulet you have too much money to burn. Goulet does occasionally show up, but not recently in the UFC (though he did shockingly win Fight of the Night last time in Montreal – didn’t see it). His fights have been highlight reel fodder for his opponents. Make no mistake: Goulet is on the card ONLY because the event is in Montreal. I’m picking my boy Davis. Let’s hope this is the start of a new winning streak for him.

TJ Grant vs Johny Hendricks (welterweight) – Once again, I’m going to go against the Canadian. TJ Grant has a very decent record but Hendricks has been amazing and remains undefeated. I’m picking Hendricks.

Tim Hague vs Joey Beltran (heavyweight) – Which Hague will show up? The one who debuted with the UFC and choked a dude out or the one who got KO’d in 7 seconds? He was apparently robbed his last time out (didn’t see it) so here’s thinking he’ll be hungry and looking to finish. Beltran has an impressive record but his last fight against Rolles Gracie was far form impressive. I’ll pick Hague.

Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs Mike Guymon (welterweight) – Yoshida ended up on Koscheck’s highlight reel but he has a better record than that. Guymon really has zip on his resume though he has a decent record. I’ll pick Yoshida.

Jason MacDonald vs John Salter (middleweight) – MacDonald stepped in for David Loiseau who stepped in for Nick Catone. You gotta wonder what this does to Salter. When guys don’t get to prepare for a specific opponent, it’s all about your skill. MacDonald has more experience and he does have skills when he uses his head and sticks to his game plan. I’ll pick MacDonald.

UFC news: Liddell vs Franklin + Penn-Edgar rematch?

Bit of news hitting the wires this morning.

UFC 115

The UFC has released the fight card for UFC 115 taking place in Vancouver, BC. This is another big deal event as it marks the debut of the UFC in Western Canada. Vancouver is only the second city in Canada to host a UFC event, which has made rabid Toronto fans quite envious, to be sure.

The card was supposed to feature a battle between the latest TUF coaches, which everyone presumed to mean Chuck vs Tito III. But a strange thing happened on the way to the octagon as rumours and leaked photos suggested Tito was off the show and Rich Franklin had taken his place. Then, it was made public that Ortiz had been hospitalized. Still, Dana White told all who would listen that the Tito-Chuck fight was still on. Whether this was just a ploy to avoid spoiling the TUF season surprises or his actual belief, I don't know, but it has been confirmed that Tito is out and Franklin is in for UFC 115.

Some are greeting the announcement with disappointment, but, to be honest, I think this makes for a more interesting fight. Liddell-Ortiz III wasn't going to settle anything since Chuck was up 2-0. Besides, Ortiz hasn't been relevant for quite some time while Rich Franklin has still been fighting top dogs and is making a bid for a light heavyweight title shot in the future - something Ortiz was likely never to get.

Franklin is best at middleweight, if you ask me, but he was never going to reclaim the belt while Anderson Silva was patrolling those waters. Now, if Silva moves up to light heavyweight...

But that's another story.

In the meantime, a Chuck-Rich fight is an interesting proposition. Both are popular fighters and former champions. A few years ago, this fight seemed unlikely to ever happen (being in different weight classes), but fortunes have changed for both men and this main event offers them an opportunity to get back into the light heavyweight conversation. There's a lot at stake here. The winner will be elevated in the rankings, while the loser will face retirement questions. UFC 115 will mark a turning point - and that's why it matters.

But the disappointment being expressed at 115 isn't limited to the main event. The undercard is a bit underwhelming on the surface.

Cro Cop vs Barry - Mirko simply isn't the same fighter in recent years.
Thiago vs Kampmann - Ok, but not sexy.
Condit vs MacDonald - Condit is known, MacDonald not so much.
Griffin vs Dunham - Ok, not great.
Danzig vs Wiman - Two inconsistent fighters.
Rothwell vs Yvel - Finally some fireworks! But may not be broadcast. Oh.
Wilks vs Sobotta - Wilks is known, Sobotta not so much.
Funch vs Patrick - Never a good sign when the website doesn't have a photo.
Pyle vs Lennox - Pyle is known, Lennox not so much.

Ok, so it isn't the sexiest card we've ever seen. But let's not bury it just yet. Sometimes these cards end up having the best fights. All of these fighters, known or not, will be looking to make an impression. None of these fighters are the cream of their weight class crop, but that means they won't be complacent. They need the wins. I bet the Thiago-Kampmann fight will be terrific.

Still, one would have hoped that the UFC would have made more of an effort to make the card a monster, it being a new market and all. The problem, of course, is that many of the top dogs in the UFC have fought recently and there are only so many fighters available for this June event.

Let's hope the fighters surprise us and put on a terrific show.

Penn vs Edgar rematch?

Normally, when a champ loses their belt, they are forced to earn a tune-up victory before getting a rematch with the new champion. GSP did this with Koscheck, Hughes did this with Alves (he lost), Liddell did this with Jardine (lost), Couture did this with Van Arsdale, and then there's Griffin, Rampage, Evans, etc etc.

But it seems that the UFC is in talks to reunite BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar in the octagon for the lightweight belt. Edgar, you'll recall, won the belt from Penn at UFC 112 in Abu Dhabi in a stunner of an upset and with some questioning the judging. The "controversy" surrounding this one, though, does not appear to be on the same scale as the Mauricio Rua vs Lyoto Machida judging that prompted the perhaps ill-advised (it was a snoozefest, to be honest) rematch to be scheduled for Montreal at 113.

So why the immediate rematch? Is the UFC catering to Penn who had been built up as the "greatest lightweight of all time" in recent months? Does it have anything to do with Penn's rumoured desire to leave the division (with the belt) and move up to 170? Does the UFC lack confidence in the marketability of Edgar vs Maynard? Is the lightweight division so thin that no other match-up is palatable?

Who knows.

I'd love to hear the explanation, though. The real explanation.

UFC 112 : Silva vs Maia in Abu Dhabi

This has been an insanely busy few weeks for the UFC, and it all culminates with UFC 112 in Abu Dhabi.

This is going to be an open air event, which ought to pose some new and interesting challenges for some of the fighters. It will be a 7pm local start time, so it’s hard to say if the sun will be a factor – even a bright reflection could be distracting. Temperature and humidity may also play a part in these fights. This could turn into something out of a Pro Line commercial.

Alright, let’s get to the picks.

Anderson Silva vs Demian Maia (middleweight) – Anyone who tells you they think Maia will win is lying or an imbecile. Sure, Maia has a chance, but there’s no way anyone would bet on it without some serious odds – and even then a win would be like wining the lottery. We’ve seen what Silva does with jiu jitsu guys: he stands and bangs and when they fall down to try to lure him into their guard, Silva politely invites them to stand back up. The last jiu jitsu guy to try that got booted out of the UFC soon afterwards for one of the most lacklustre efforts ever seen (with the notable exception of Kalib Starnes, of course). Add in the fact that Maia’s chin has previously been exposed thanks to Nate Marquardt and this has all the makings of a walk in the park for Silva and a very very boring fight. Silva will win.

BJ Penn vs Frankie Edgar (lightweight) – Another fight featuring a massive underdog but in this one he has at least a puncher’s chance. Edgar is an up-tempo spirited fighter but I’m not sure he’s anywhere near ready for the likes of BJ Penn. He has beaten some great fighters (Mark Bocek, Jim Miller, Spencer Fisher, Tyson Griffin, Sean Sherk), with his only loss against Gray Maynard – the guy most likely to get the next shot (and probably should have gotten this one). Penn is a well-rounded fighter looking to get yet another re-match against GSP for the welterweight crown when, really, he should be focusing on the belt he has. It’s sad that people are already talking about Penn having “cleaned out” the lightweight division when he has only defeated Kenny Florian, Diego Sanchez and Sean Sherk since earning the crown. Is that all the lightweight division has to offer? Sure, Sanchez and Florian are top dogs, but 3 defenses do not make for a “cleaning out” if you ask me. The problem is that Florian is acting as a bodyguard, protecting Penn from challenges by the likes of Clay Guida, Roger Huerta and even Takanori Gomi by defeating these guys before they can get their hands on Penn. Personally, I’d love to see a Penn-Guida fight to see if Penn could handle the intensity. For now, while I’d love to see Edgar take the Ego from Hilo down a notch, I’m picking Penn to win.

Matt Hughes vs Renzo Gracie (welterweight) – This is strictly a stunt fight. That’s to say that it was made not because these guys are on equal footing but because of their names and rivalry. Hughes defeated a geriatric Royce Gracie back in 2006 and now I guess cousin Renzo is out for revenge. Good luck with that. If Hughes, once dubbed the most dominant welterweight champion in UFC history, can’t defeat the likes of Renzo Gracie then he ought to retire. Renzo hasn’t fought in 3 years and has only 6 fights since 2001. He’s riding a three fight win streak, but against has-beens Pat Miletich and Carlos Newton and a DQ win over Frank Shamrock. Before that, he’d lost 6 of 7. I don’t know what Hughes thinks of these fights the UFC has been giving him (one fight per year?) since he lost his belt to GSP, but they certainly aren’t the ones that will get him back in contention. I’m picking Hughes to ground and pound his way to a decision.

Terry Etim vs Rafael Dos Anjos (lightweight) – This could be a very good fight and might steal the show. Dos Anjos has dangerous jiu jitsu while Etim is a well-rounded fighter with, I feel, a more impressive history. I imagine this will be fast-paced and lots of fun. I’m picking Etim.

Kendall Grove vs Mark Munoz (middleweight) – I like Grove, but he has always been one of those “on the bubble” fighters to me. He looks great in some fights and absolutely horrendous in others. He’s susceptible to knockouts and that’s Munoz’s game. I gotta say I like Munoz in this one if he can get inside.

Alexander Gustafsson vs Phil Davis (light heavyweight) – This is another candidate for fight of the night and features a battle of the unbeatens. I’m betting this one ends in a TKO early. Davis is the only one with a name on his record (a very impressive mauling of Brian Stann) but Gustafsson has more fights and tends to end them faster. Not to mention that he, too, has a wrestling background and ought to be able to defend against any Davis takedown attempts. I’ll pick Gustafsson.

Paul Taylor vs John Gunderson (welterweight?) – Can’t say I know much about Gunderson (listed as a lightweight), but Taylor always puts on a good performance (he has earned Fight of the Night three times in eight UFC fights). While he has an impressive record, Gunderson’s only fight of note is a loss to Bart Palaszewski three years ago. Taylor is susceptible to submissions, though, and Gunderson is a sub specialist. Tough call… I like Taylor, but I’ll pick Gunderson for the upset.

Nick Osipczak vs Rick Story (welterweight) – Nick doesn’t have many fights on his record, but he was impressive at times on The Ultimate Fighter. Story has been fairly impressive so far in the UFC and his wrestling background may prove to be the difference. I like Nick, but I’m going to pick the more experienced Story.

DeMarques Johnson vs Brad Blackburn (welterweight) – This is a tough one to pick because neither one of these fighters has been particularly impressive. Johnson famously lost the TUF finale to James Wilks while Blackburn has a mediocre record including a loss to Amir Sadollah. Johnson ought to pose similar problems as Sadollah did for Blackburn, with perhaps even better jiu jitsu. I’ll take Johnson.

Paul Kelly vs Matt Veach (lightweight) – Kelly is another Brit who puts on good shows. In fact, he defeated Paul Taylor in a Fight of the Night match-up a couple of years ago. He has had mixed success in the UFC, though, losing to Marcus Davis and, in his last fight, Dennis Siver via highlight spinning back kick. Veach was undefeated until he ran into Paul Kelly in his last fight. SO Kelly beat Taylor who beat Veach. Does that make Kelly the favourite? Probably. Kelly tends to go to decision, though, whereas Veach is a finisher. I’m gonna go against the odds and pick Veach in this one.

Jon Madsen vs Mostapha Al Turk (heavyweight) – The only heavyweight fight on the card and it’s a dark match. This is another tough one to call. Al Turk has more experience, but has had mediocre outings recently, losing to Cheick Kongo and Mirko Cro Cop (thanks to a poke in the eye). Madsen was only so-so on TUF. Both like to bang, but Madsen has a wrestling background and would be wise to use it. If Turk loses, surely it will mean his exit from the UFC, thin division or no. Against my better judgement, I’ll pick Al Turk to redeem himself and earn a reprieve.

Whoa - 11 fights, including two title fights. That's one packed card. Will it be a boring, predictable one, or will one of these underdogs shock the world?

Fight Night Live : Florian vs Gomi Results

Kenny Florian def. Takanori Gomi (sub3) – Takanori Gomi? More like Tacky Origami. The Japanese import was either overhyped or he folded under the UFC pressure. Can’t say I was impressed. He was barely a threat to Florian who seemed to be in awe of his opponent in the pre-fight build-up. Sure, Gomi had some dangerous swings, but they were wild and are ineffective against a mixed martial artist who knows the game. It’ll be a while before Gomi gets his desired rematch against Penn, I think. Florian, while essentially unchallenged, still managed to prove he is one of the very best in the lightweight division. (1-0)

Roy Nelson def. Stefan Struve (KO 1) – I picked Struve for fun, but I knew Nelson would probably squish him. I was a bit surprised he got such a clean knockout, though. I thought Struve would be smarter and use his reach to keep Nelson at bay until a takdown came, but Struve looked like an amateur. When you have an insane reach advantage, you don’t fight on the inside. Silly. (1-1)

Jorge Rivera def. Nate Quarry (TKO 2) – Another one where my pick disappointed. Quarry never looked like he was into this one, backing off and crumpling at the slightest touch. It didn’t look like Jorge was putting that much power into his shots, but Quarry went down like a $2 whore. Pretty stunning, actually. (1-2)

Ross Pearson def. Dennis Siver (unanimous) – Pearson looked good. He was faster than Siver and more effective than the kickboxer. It was a smart, steady, skilled victory and yet still managed to entertain. The fight was closer than the verdict would suggest, but Pearson certainly deserved the nod. (2-2)

Andre Winner def. Rafaello Oliveira (unanimous) – This was a dark match, so I can’t really comment. Apparently Winner controlled the fight. (3-2)

Jacob Volkmann def. Ronys Torres (split) – I hear this one was ugly and the scores (30-27, 30-27 and 28-29) would seem to support that. I’m surprised Torres couldn’t pull this one out. I wouldn’t mind seeing it. I thought Torres would outclass Volkmann for sure. (3-3)

Nik Lentz def. Rob Emerson (unanimous) – Dunno if Emerson will survive the next round of cuts. (4-3)

Gleison Tibau def. Caol Uno (TKO 1) – Caol Uno is a shadow of his former self. Seriously. He looked pathetic. It’s hard to believe this guy was once considered a serious threat in the UFC. Tibau should be fighting tougher guys. (5-3)

Yushin Okami def. Lucio Linhares (TKO 2) – Okami picked Linhares apart in this one, avoiding takedown attempts and using his precision striking to great effect. Linhares was cut so badly that the ref stopped the fight in the second round. It’ll be interesting to see if the UFC decides to give Okami another title push after this and pit him against top dogs. (6-3)

Gerald Harris def. Mario Miranda (TKO 1) – Looks like this might have been the most entertaining fight with two guys trying to knock each other’s heads off. Harris managed to get the upper hand and finished his opponent within the first round. (7-3)

Charlie Brenneman def. Jason High (unanimous) – This might have been a fun one to watch, too, with the two newcomers putting on a spirited show. High couldn’t secure a pair of guillotines and Brenneman got the decision on points. (7-4)

Another event, another winning record (7-4). Not bad.

TUF 11 kicked off last night as well. Some impressive fighters. Let’s see how it plays out.

Big event coming up on April 10. Stay tuned for picks.

UFC Fight Night : Florian vs Gomi Picks

Another week, another Fight Night. Busy times for the UFC. Ok, let’s have a look at this one…

Kenny Florian vs Takanori Gomi (lightweight) – I can’t say I know much about Gomi, but apparently he’s a legend in the Japanese circuit (and Pride). He has lost to BJ Penn and Nick Diaz, but has wins over Jens Pulver, Duane Ludwig and Marcus Aurelio. 31-5-1NC is a very impressive record, but this will be his debut in the cage, which is a much different animal than the Pride fighting ring. Florian, meanwhile, has really come into his own following his days on The Ultimate Fighter. He has lost to Sean Sherk and BJ Penn, both title fights. Wins over the likes of Clay Guida, Roger Huerta, Joe Stevenson, Din Thomas and Sam Stout put Florian deservedly in the top ranks of the lightweight division. I’d love to see a rematch with Diego Sanchez someday before a rematch with BJ Penn. This is a tough fight to call having never seen Gomi fight. I’ll pick Florian.

Roy Nelson vs Stefan Struve (heavyweight) – If Struve were ever able to cut weight to 205 he’d be a force, but at heavyweight he is susceptible to the sheer weight of his opponents. I like the kid and hope he wins, but I can see Nelson getting inside, taking him down and lying on top of the poor helpless bastard. My brain says to pick Nelson, but I'm gonna go with the upset special and root for Struve.

Nate Quarry vs Jorge Rivera (middleweight) –Not sure how Jorge has managed to stick around the UFC for this long. He’s not going anywhere within the division and seems to lose at least every other fight (3 of 8 actually). Jorge seems to like to stand and bang which is Quarry’s strong suit, too. I like Quarry and his power, so I’ll pick him.

Ross Pearson vs Dennis Siver (lightweight) – Siver is no joke. He can win on his feet or the ground and has a very decent record. Pearson is a fan fav from TUF 9. I like his style and relentless attack. This should be a very entertaining fight. I like Pearson, so I’ll pick him.

Andre Winner vs Rafaello Oliveira (lightweight) – Andre Winner looked good during TUF 9, but his opponent is no slouch himself and has a better record. Both of these guys tend to go to decision. Oliveira is known for pushing the pace. Tough call. I’ll pick Winner for fun.

Jacob Volkmann vs Ronys Torres (welterweight) – Torres looked awesome his last time out (a decision loss to Melvin Guillard) while Volkmann was less than impressive. I’ll pick Torres.

Rob Emerson vs Nik Lentz (lightweight) – I’m not sure how a guy with a 9-8 record stays in the UFC – unless of course he was on TUF. Emerson is 2-2-1NC in the UFC and that’s if you buy the double KO decision rendered at the TUF 5 finale. If you ignore the 2-6 start to his career, maybe he looks a little better. I like Emerson, but I won’t pick him to win this fight. I’ll pick Lentz.

Caol Uno vs Gleison Tibau (lightweight) – Caol Uno is a shadow of his former self (3-4-1 in his last 8 against mid-card fighters). It’s sad, really. Tibau, meanwhile, is a stud with decent success against tough opponents (7-4 in the UFC). I’ll pick Tibau.

Yushin Okami vs Lucio Linhares (middleweight) – Okami has a very respectable; record in the UFC (7-2) but has lost key fights against Rich Franklin and Chael Sonnen that have set him back from title shots. He doesn’t have the most exciting style, often boxing his way to a decision. Linhares, meanwhile, has fought mostly in M-1 and lost his UFC debut last time out (to Rousimar Palhares). He has no significant victories, but very seldom goes to a decision. So it appears the winner will be largely determined by when the fight ends. A decision will likely go to Okami, while a submission would go to Linhares. Since Okami is the wrestler, he ought o be able to decide where the fight takes place. That means standing, that means a decision, that means Okami will likely win.

Gerald Harris vs Mario Miranda (middleweight) – …Who? Research, research research… Ok, Harris is listed as a wrestler but most of his fights end with him getting a submission or a knockout. Clearly, this guy has skills – and a 14-2 record. Miranda, meanwhile, is undefeated (11-0) with a variety of finishes. He also has a wrestling background. Interesting. Neither has fought anyone of note, but this is Miranda’s UFC debut, while Harris has a UFC victory and KO of the Night honours. Impressive. I’ll pick Harris to spoil Miranda’s party and record.

Charlie Brenneman vs Jason High (welterweight) – Another battle of good records and UFC debutants. High has a victory over Kevin Burns, granted by doctor stoppage. Brenneman tends to win by TKO or decision, while High has a fair number of submissions and has made it to the DREAM welterweight Grand Prix finals. I’ll pick High.

With no heavyweights or even light heavyweights on the card, this ought to be an exciting, fast-paced event. We’ll see.

Note also: The Ultimate Fighter XI (Liddell vs Ortiz) starts tonight!

UFC Live: Vera vs Jones picks

This is an event availble on regular cable tv (at least in Canada) whihc is pretty sweet, 'cause it's a decent card, unlike most Fight Night Live cards which feature TUF guys and one ok fight as a main event.

Let's get to the picks:

Brandon Vera vs Jon Jones (light heavyweight) - Remember when Vera was the next big thing? When he had a great record, was a young up and comer and appeared to be a threat in the heavyweight and light heavyweight divisions? Well, after some lackluster performances in his last - what - 5 fights, that seems like a long time ago. Now it's Jones who is the up and comer with the great record and appears to be a rising darling with the UFC. This fight could represent a transition in both fighters' careers. If Jones wins, we could see him move into the top flight of the UFC, ready to take on some of the contenders. Vera would be looking at his second straight loss, his fifth in nine fights, and 3-3 since moving to light heavyweight. I don't think he'd be in danger of getting cut, but his star would seriously lack some shine. He ought to be the favourite in this fight and yet fans have him as a 2-1 underdog. Is it over for Vera? It all depends on which Vera shows up. If Smart Vera shows up, he'll find the weaknesses in Jones' game and secure a takedown and submission. If Silly Vera shows up, he'll stand and bang and get knocked out. This is a tough one to call. Jones is scary, but we haven't seen Vera's chin tested and I don't know if Jones can handle Vera on the ground. I think this one might actually turn into a snooze fest after the first round, with Jones winning by decision after some modest ground and pound.

Junior Dos Santos vs Gabriel Gonzaga (heavyweight) - Gonzaga needs to get this one to the mat. If he stands and bangs I don't like his chances one bit. Dos Santos has tremendous power in his fists, moreso than Gonzaga who is no slouch himself. I'm picking Dos Santos by KO.

Cheick Kongo vs Paul Buentello (heavyweight) - I've never been a big fans of Buentello's. He's a guy who swings for the fences with his big gut sticking out and seems to lay eggs in the big fights. He's susceptible to submissions, but he's fortunate that his opponent on Sunday has no ground game whatsoever. Cheick Kongo is a big dude who made a splash upon his arrival in the UFC, but has also been unimpressive in recent fights (even in victory). Neither one of these guys strikes me as true MMA fighters or heavyweight contenders. Buentello might get the KO, but I'll pick Kongo to bore us with a decision. The loser should be halfway to the door.

Alessio Sakara vs James Irvin (middleweight) - This is a battle of returning fighters. Sakara's been away since August 2009 while Irvin's been away a month longer thanks to injury and a drug suspension. It also features Irvin's debut at 185, which is a bit of a surprise as that's Anderson Silva's weight class - the guy who clubbed him last time out. Both fighters need the win after so-so careers in the cage. Both seem to like to stand and trade, in which case I'd give Irvin the edge. It'll be interesting to see if Irvin can handle the weight drop, though. Still, I'll pull for him. Irvin by KO.

Clay Guida vs Shannon Gugerty (lightweight) - after an 18-3 start, Guida is 7-8 in his last 15. That's not good. But three times he's won Fight Of The Night honours and he's had lots of tough opposition. This guy simply does not stop. I can't see him losing to Gugerty who has a far less impressive resume and is simply filling in for Sean Sherk. I'm picking Guida.

Eliot Marshall vs Vladimir Matyushenko (light heavyweight) - I like Marshall, but I fear he may be outclassed by Matyushenko. The man from Belarus has a very impressive resume while Marshall is still pretty new to the game and has yet to face top competition. Clearly this is a test for Marshall, and I think his only hope is to outlast the older (39) Matyushenko. If this goes to the ground, it'll be interesting to see what Marshall's jiu-jitsu can do against the old wrestler. I see Matyushenko by dull decision.

Duane Ludwig vs Darren Elkins (lightweight?) - Elkins is listed as a welterweight on the UFC site...Not sure what class this is being fought in. Lightweight, I think. Ludwig is a capable fighter while Elkins is making his UFC debut. I'll take the experienced Ludwig.

John Howard vs Daniel Roberts (welterweight) - I've never heard of Roberts, but the guy is a submission machine. Howard is no slouch, either. He's on a 6 fight win streak, 3 in the UFC. This could be the best fight of the night. Howard tends to go to decision, though, while Roberts is a first round finisher. I'll pick the new guy, Roberts.

Brendan Schaub vs Chase Gormley (heavyweight) - Schaub will be looking to make up for his highlight reel loss to Roy Nelson in the TUF finale. Can't say I know much about Gormley. I like Schaub, so I'll pick him.

Mike Pierce vs Julio Paulino (welterweight) - although his record doesn't show it, Pierce has a much better resulme than Paulino, who seems to spend a lot of time fighting in Alaska. I'll pick Pierce.

Eric Schafer vs Jason Brilz (light heavyweight) - Schafer is good but has laid some eggs. Brilz is coming off a loss but is a wrestler with submission skills. That's always good. 17-2 is also good, though granted not against top flight competition. Still, I'll pick Brilz for fun.

UFC 109 Predictions

Ok, so UFC 109 is this weekend - better get my picks in so you can all mock me later, right?

Randy Couture vs Mark Coleman - Oh man, this is what it's come to, eh? Sure, it's a fight between legends, but it'll do nothing for two guys who are supposedly looking to make themselves relevant again. Who cares if an old guy beats an old guy? How does that move you up the rankings? Randy has more to lose than Coleman, that's for sure. I'll pick Randy to win. Look for the loser to contemplate retirement.

Nate Marquardt vs Chael Sonnen - I don't see how Sonnen has earned this, but if the UFC wants to give him a push, this is certainly one way to do it. Marquardt is super talented and can beat anybody if he puts things together. I'll pick Marquardt.

Mike Swick vs Paulo Thiago - This could be the fight of the night. Expect these two to go fast and furious. Thiago has been impressive, but I like Swick too much to bet against him. Here's hoping he rebounds from his poor showing against Dan Hardy.

Demien Maia vs Dan Miller - Both of these guys are solid and have submission skills, but Maia is super dangerous on the ground and has beaten better fighters. If it gets there, look for him to eventually sink in a submission. Miller has to play it smart if he hopes to get the W. If Maia wins, look for him to get a title shot soon, possibly right after Marquardt.

Matt Serra vs Frank Trigg - Another battle between fighters who are looking at their best days in the rear view mirror. I can't believe Trigg is back. How many chances can the UFC give this guy? He has zero drawing power these days. Sure, he might beat the smaller Serra, but what does that do for the UFC? Here's hoping Serra gets the submission and Trigg retires for good.

Mac Danzig vs Justin Buchholz - Danzig is a fine fighter but just hasn't lived up to his billing. He won TUF easily due to his superior experience (it wasn't fair, really) but that hasn't translated into much in the big show. He has lost his last 3 fights and 5 of his last 7. He hasn't beaten anyone of consequence (except maybe Mark Bocek). If he loses tomorrow, look for his name in the next round of UFC cuts. Fortunately for Danzig, I think he'll actually pull it off.

Melvin Guillard vs Ronnys Torres - Guillard had better knock Torres out in a hurry or he's in trouble. If this fight goes to the ground, it's over. I don't know much about Torres, but he has a sick record and can submit you in a variety of ways. Guillard has proven he knows jack about the ground game. I'm picking Torres in his UFC debut.

Phillipe Nover vs Rob Emerson - Normally, I'd pick Nover in a heartbeat, but he's been injured while Emerson has been amassing experience. Emerson was useless on TUF but has since shown some significant improvement and powerful hands. This is a hard one to pick. Nover is probably the favourite, but I'll pick Emerson.

Brian Stann vs Phil Davis - This fight features a couple of guys with heavy hands. It could end early, but Davis is also a proven wrestler and may choose to take it to the ground. If so, look for him to get the win. Stann has way more experience, though, and may be calmer than the newcomer Davis. Tough call, but I guess I'll take Stann.

Tim Hague vs Chris Tuchscherer - I don't like the Canadian's chances, especially coming off his 7 second KO loss last time out. I imagine Tuchscherer will win, but I won't bet against the Canadian guy. I'll pick Hague in an upset.

Rolles Gracie vs Joey Beltran - Beltran has more experience, but never EVER bet against a man named Gracie. I'll pick the inexperienced Rolles.

Ok, let's see how I do!

UFC 107 Results - Penn survives the Nightmare

Alright, kiddies, let's see how it all went down:

BJ Penn def Diego Sanchez (TKO 5) - If you had told me that BJ would TKO Sanchez in round 5 I would have told you you were nuts. This seemed to be the least likely scenario based on BJ's gas tank and Diego's determination. But since it was a DOCTOR's stoppage, I understand. That was a crazy gash on Diego's forehead. I'm glad BJ was winning handily at the time or it might have been tragic. I didn't see the event, so I can't comment on how Diego was doing, but I understand BJ had things well in hand at that point. In the end, perhaps the fact that it was Diego's first fve rounder caught up to him a little, but a three rounder would have had the same result - BJ is still the champ. It appears that BJ was most impressive on Saturday. I'm somewhat surprised he was as effective as he was, even in rounds four and five. Good for him. As for Diego, this is his first loss in a while and he still has an incredible record and great potential, so we may see him back in the title mix soon. (0-1)

Frank Mir def Cheick Kongo (sub 1) - This appears to have been a non-fight. Was MIr that impressive or did Kongo suck that badly? I've never been all that impressed by Kongo, and have long felt he was overrated by the UFC, but what are you going to do with a depleted heavyweight division? Mir looked huge and is clearly hoping for Mir-Lesnar 3. He may never get it, based on health reports from the Lesnar camp, but he may get his shot at an interim title in the coming months. Look for him to take on the winner of Carwin-Velasquez. (1-1)

Jon Fitch def Mike Pierce (unanimous) - No big surprise, other than perhaps the fact that it went the distance. This is the problem with many of Fitch's recent fights. He needs to finish more. This doesn't appear to be the kind of fight that puts him back in title contention. (2-1)

Kenny Florian def Clay Guida - Wish I had seen this. Looks like the gash that Florian opened up on the side of Guida's head really made the difference. Guida was bleeding like a stuck pig. I'm shocked that Guida was stopped so easily. (2-2)

Stefan Struve def Paul Buentello (majority) - Looks like this was a close fight - perhaps closer than it ought to have been given that Struve apparently put it in cruise control late in the fight. I think the surprising thing was that Struve stood and banged it out with Buentello. I'm glad Struve won (a rare majority decision thanks to one 28-28 score). He seems to be a good kid. I doubt he'll go too far with his lankiness, but he makes for a fun fight to watch. (3-2)

Alan Belcher def Wilson Gouveia (TKO 1) - A bit of a surprising result (the quickness of it). Not sure where this leaves Gouveia. (4-2)

Matt Wiman def Shane Nelson (unanimous) - I hope both fighters impressed, but considering it went to decision... (5-2)

Johny Hendricks def Ricardo Funch (unanimous) - Another decision. Hendricks is still undefeated, so I wonder if he'll go up in competition. Watch out for this guy. (6-2)

Rousimar Palhares def Lucio Linhares (sub 2) - Palhares is a freak. If he can get by against bigger opponents watch out. He's dangerous. I'd like to see this one, just to see how he pulled off the heel hook. (7-2)

DeMarques Johnson def Edgar Garcia (sub 1) - Johnson pulled it off. Garcia dropped his second straight UFC fight, the only two blemishes on his record. Losing in the first round by submission never looks good. Wonder if we'll see this kid again. (7-3)

TJ Grant def Kevin Burns (TKO 1) - Nice to see the Canadian win. First round TKO makes it pretty impressive. Knockout of the Night? Doubly impressive. This ought to get him on another UFC card soon. (8-3)

Whoa: 8-3! That's pretty impressive, too! And had I picked the favourites in KenFLo and BJ I would have been almost perfect. Now we have a bit of a layoff (3 weeks is a layoff?!) before UFC 108 pits Rashad Evans against Thiago Silva on an otherwise less than impressive card.

Happy holidays.

UFC 107 Predictions

Another week, another UFC event - this time on PPV - and yet again, I'm gonna miss it. This time, even TiVo won't save me. F*ck!

It's shaping up to be a good one, too. And with the health of most elite UFC fighters these days being fragile at best, it may be the best collection of fights we'll see for a while.

Ok, my picks:

BJ Penn vs Diego Sanchez

Am I the only one who gives Sanchez even odds in this fight? Sanchez ought to be the bigger, stronger fighter and he has a wide range of skills, much like Penn. He's no rookie, either, and aside from a bad health stretch a while back, his record is pretty much spotless. He could have easily been undefeated at this point. Yet people seem to think he's a ridiculous underdog in this fight. Ridiculous? Maybe. Underdog? Not by much. If this fight goes into the third round and beyond, Sanchez's odds of winning increase exponentially. Sanchez doesn't seem to tire and Penn still has an anemic gas tank as we saw with GSP. I think Penn is the smarter fighter and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he gets a decision (I can't see him finishing Sanchez), but I'm gonna go balls out and pick Sanchez to pull off the "upset" and become the new lightweight champ.

Frank Mir vs Cheick Kongo

Kongo could lay and pray all night and try to blast Mir like Lesnar did, but I don't see it. I think Kongo will try to stand all night while Mir will be desperate to get this fight to the ground. If it does go to the mat, look for Mir to secure a submission. Otherwise, this could turn out to be yet another boring Kongo dance. I'm pulling for Mir.

Jon Fitch vs Mike Pierce

Pierce seems ok, but I don't think too many fighters are in Fitch's class. I think this fight will get Fitch back into contention and possibly set up a Fitch-Koschceck #1 contender's fight to face the GSP-Hardy winner.

Kenny Florian vs Clay Guida

A potential fight of the night battle between two guys who like to go and try to finish fights. Guida is a freak of nature with his cardio, so Florian will have his hands full. It's almost impossible to knock Guida out, so Florian will likely try to work the submissions, likely from the bottom as Guida uses his wrestling skills. I don't like Florian's odds in this one. I could see Guida getting the decision. Sorry, KenFlo.

Paul Buentello vs Stefan Struve

Buentello returns to the UFC. Can't say I was a fan of his the first time around. He was famously knocked out by Andrei Arlovski. Struve will have his usual massive height and reach advantage, so it'll be interesting to see if Buentello can get inside and use his power - otherwise, he's screwed. I could see Struve wearing Buentello out, and securing a submission in the third round. I'll pick him.

Alan Belcher vs Wilson Gouveia - Two guys who tend not to impress but somehow manage to get wins when you least expect them. Not sure who to pick here. Belcher works hard, at least, whereas Gouveia seems to fluke out knockouts. I'll pick...Belcher?

Matt Wiman vs Shane Nelson - I'm a fan of Wiman's so I'd like to see him get back on the winning track. Three losses in a row could be the end of him. I'll pick Wiman.

Johny Hendricks vs Ricardo Funch - Hendricks is good and Funch is a nobody who has fought no one of consequence. I'll take the experienced guy.

Rousimar Palhares vs Lucio Linhares - Palhares is awesome but needs to drop a weight class. He's too small at middleweight. He'll be six inches shorter than his opponent. Still, I'll pick him for fun.

DeMarques Johnson vs Edgar Garcia - Johnson didn't exactly overwhelm me with his talent on TUF, so I'll go with the darkhorse Garcia who will have something to prove after dropping his UFC debut (his only MMA loss).

Kevin Burns vs TJ Grant - Can't go against the Canadian in a toss up fight. I'll pick Grant.

I look forward to reading the results... *sigh*

The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale - Predictions

Okay, better get these in quick before I get too busy again.

Roy Nelson vs Brendan Schaub - If it stays up, Schaub takes it, but if Big (Fat) Country gets on top of Schaub on the ground, it could be all over. I doubt Schaub could buck Nelson the way he did Marcus Jones. I think Nelson will win by smothering, I hate to say.

Matt Hamill vs Jon Jones - I like Hamill but he's stubborn. He seems ot refuse to use his wrestling skills in favour of slugging. If it stays up, I see Jones taking it, but if Hamill is smart he'll use his wrestling and get the win. I'll go with Hamill, though I don't like his odds.

Kimbo Slice vs Houston Alexander - I don't know how much weight cutting Kimbo had to do, this being a catchweight fight. Houston will be bigger than usual, being a light heavyweight by trade. Houston doesn't have the best technique and he is being given this fight for one reason: to stand and bang. Can he out-bang the internet sensation? I wouldn't be shocked. But I expect he'll leg kick Kimbo to death. I'll take Houston. If Kimbo loses, well, that may be the end of his mystique after a disappointing showing on TUF.

Frank Edgar vs Matt Veach - Can't say I remember Veach. Which means I don't like his odds against Edgar. I'll pick Edgar.

Marcus Jones vs Matt Mitrione - I like Marcus Jones and I hope he keeps fighting. I expect he'll get some motivation after kicking Mitrione's ass. I think this'll be a cakewalk for Jones once he gets Mitrione down.

Darrill Schoonover vs James McSweeney - McSweeney's a douche. This is a bully vs bullied fight. I think McSweeney is the better fighter... Guess I'll have to pick him. Darn it.

Jon Madsen vs Justin Wren - I'll take Wren.

Brian Stann vs Rodney Wallace - Who? Stann it is.

John Howard vs Dennis Hallman - Can Hallman's record possibly be correct? 64-12-2? Seriously? AND he has beaten Matt Hughes TWICE? Ok, sure - I'll take him.

Mark Bocek vs Joe Brammer - I've heard of Bocek, never heard of Brammer. Bocek it is.

UFC 104 Predictions

Time for predictions once again. I can't say this card fascinates me, but I still wouldn't wanna miss it.

Lyoto Machida Vs. Mauricio Rua - I'm blown away that this fight is even happening for the light heavyweight belt. Machida got his shot without fighting any real top flight competition (Ortiz before he left? untested Silva?) in his weight class (he has wins over Rich Franklin and BJ Penn) and Rua has received an even easier road to the title. Rua lost to Griffin, was crap against geriatric Mark Coleman, and beat Chuck Liddell at a time in his career where he was SO dangerous that Dana White promptly retired him after the fight. Honestly: what the f*ck? The light heavy division is stacked with talent and yet these guys get byes to the top. I call bullshit. Anyhow, I pick Machida to beat Rua.

Cain Velasquez Vs. Ben Rothwell - This fight could be boring as hell if it turns into a wrestling match. It could also end in dramatic fashion if Rothwell can catch Velasquez and tag the chin that Cheick Kongo exposed. Neither is deserving of a title shot, of course, though Velasquez is the latest UFC poster boy. Rothwell has a lot of experience and could pull off the "upset". He's certainly the biggest test of Velasquez's short career. I'll pick Rothwell to shatter Dana White's dreams.

Gleison Tibau Vs. Josh Neer - Both of these fighters have good reputations, but haven't been able to break into the top ranks of MMA, due to disappointing losses to upper-middle guys. Both have submission skills but Neer has more KO power. That could be the difference. My gut says Tibau, but my head says Neer. I usually go wrong when I don't go with my heart... I'll go with my head again. I'll pick Neer.

Joe Stevenson Vs. Spencer Fisher - I used to quite like Joe "Daddy" Stevenson but he just hasn't evolved and has never lived up to the potential he showed in TUF. Fisher is a warrior. I'll pick Fisher.

Anthony Johnson Vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida - Yoshida has only beaten some so-so guys and got blasted by Josh Koscheck. Johnson is one scary dude. I'll pick Johnson.

Ryan Bader Vs. Eric Schafer - This could be another boring one. Bader is badass but is a pretty straight forward wrestler. Eric "The Red" is riding a four fight win streak but has always been one of those guys who just hasn't lived up to the hype. He might have the experience to outsmart Bader, though. Tough call. I like Bader, so I'll take him.

Antoni Hardonk Vs. Pat Barry - Hardonk is another underachiever. He has lost to McCully, Kongo and Mir, while beating no one of significance. Like Hardonk, Barry has a kickboxing background and has finished opponents with kicks. He isn't very experienced, but he seems like a scary guy. I'll pick Barry in another "upset". I just can't pick Hardonk.

Yushin Okami Vs. Chael Sonnen - both guys came in with big buzz but haven't quite lived up to the hype. Okami has at least pulled out some ugly victories, but Sonnen has been the poster boy for those who dismissed the WEC as a farm team organization. The guy just doesn't do it for me. I'll pick Okami in another boring decision.

Jorge Rivera Vs. Rob Kimmons - Why Rivera keeps getting face time in the UFC is a bit of a mystery. He really isn't all that good; inconsistent to say the least. He seems to alternate wins and losses, sometimes beating middle of the road guys, but often losing to anyone decent. Kimmons has an impressive record, but seems to lose all of his biggest matches. He has a crazy number of submissions on his resume, though, and so I'll give him the edge against the average Rivera. I'll pick Kimmons.

Kyle Kingsbury Vs. Razak Al-Hassan - Two guys trying to make names for themselves in the UFC and in danger of getting cut if they don't. Kingsbury was a TUF 8 cast member, but didn't impress. Al-Hassan is also making his second appearance in the UFC, after a spectacular loss almost a year ago to Steve Cantwell in which Al-Hassan had his arm broken...and still didn't tap. It was nasty. This one is a toss-up to me, but I'll pick Al-Hassan just 'cause of his guts.

Stefan Struve Vs. Chase Gormley - I can't wait to see this giant fight again to see just what he has to offer. He's 6'11"!! That's nuts. Gormley is making his UFC debut and that usually does not bode well, perfect record or not. Struve is a submission machine while Gormley seems more well-rounded. Another pick-'em, so I'll go with Struve for fun.

This doesn't appear to be an exciting card. I hope that I'll be pleasantly surprised.

TUF 10 Episode 3 - Kimbo Tested

So here we are at episode 3 of The Ultimate Fighter X and we got our chance to see the legendary Kimbo Slice in the octagon.

It would be a big test - literally - as he would be taking on former IFL heavyweight champ Roy "Big Country" Nelson. Some said this match-up would have been fitting for a pay-per-view.

I think a lot of people would have been asking for their money back. And it probably says something about how foolish Elite XC was for sinking all their hopes into the Kimbo pool.

The fight didn't live up to the hype.

Neslon is a big fat fuck. He's hardly a fighter. I mean, the guy is not tall for a heavyweight, yet he tested the weight limit, weighing in at 264 lbs. It's all stomach, baby.

But that's all he needed against the inexperienced brawler. Nelson managed to get Kimbo down, then rested his big belly on the poor street fighter who could not free himself from The Blob.

Nelson was clearly upset that the referee (Herb Dean) did not stop the fight before the end of the first round when he had Kimbo in a crucifix-like position and dropped...uh...marshmallows on Kimbo's head.

I mean, let's face it - they were hardly bricks.

The second round went much the same way. Kimbo landed a couple of decent shots but fell under Nelson's weight again and, this time, the ref stopped the fight when Nelson landed another couple of dozen marshmallow shots to Kimbo's head.

Was Kimbo "defenseless"? Maybe. But was he in danger? Hardly.

Frankly, the ref should have let the fight continue. I mean, what's the criteria here? Do you have to "intelligently defend" yourself when you're in no danger? If Nelson can't finish properly from that position I say let him tire himself out and see what happens.

It was a terrible display by both Kimbo and Nelson. Neither would fare well in the UFC with this skills. The fact Nelson sees himself as the favourite is either a commentary on his ego or on the lack of talent on this season of TUF.

I fear it may be both.

So far this season is one big country dud.

UFC 103 Predictions

Ok, prediction time again. Let's see if I can do better than on the Fight Night this week.

Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort

Belfort is making his much-anticipated return to the UFC. The "Phenom" is trying to recapture some of his previous glory, but the UFC is not making it easy for him. Franklin may not seem super dangerous, but you can't knock the fact that he wins. Sure, he looked bad against Anderson Silva (twice) but who hasn't? The Dan Henderson fight was close, and Hendo certainly didn't dominate Franklin. Can Vitor knock out Franklin? I don't see it. As a result, I see Franklin getting a decision win.

Mirko Cro Cop vs. Junior Dos Santos

Dos Santos has looked dangerous while Cro Cop has been lacklustre to say the least in his UFC fights. As always, if Cro Cop can get the KO, he wins, but if it goes to a decision, I wouldn't bet on him. Hate to say it, but I'll take the younger Dos Santos to get the nod and the questions to heat up as to the relevance of Cro Cop in the UFC.

Martin Kampmann vs. Paul Daley

Don't know much about Daley. He's taking the fight on short notice, replacing the injured Mike Swick. Kampmann has been impressive, except in his loss to Marquardt. At welterweight? I'll take Kampmann nine times out of ten - except against GSP.

Josh Koscheck vs. Frank Trigg

I can't believe I'm gonna do this. I'm taking Koscheck. The guy comes off as a complete douche, but he's younger and faster than Trigg and I see Trigg getting a rough welcome in his UFC return. Trigg will be used as a stepping stone after this.

Tyson Griffin vs. Hermes Franca

Can't say I have much love for Franca after his positive drug test. Griffin has been impressive. Good speed and big heart. I'll take Griffin.

UNDERCARD

Efrain Escudero vs. Cole Miller - Efrain is undefeated but Miller is a tall, smart guy and has beaten some big names while Escudero is unproven. I'm picking Miller.

Drew McFedries vs. Tomasz Drwal - McFedries is dangerous as hell...for one round. Then he runs out of gas. Drwal is dangerous as hell, too, with many short fights on his resume, including some submissions. I'll take Drwal by submission in a short one.

Jim Miller vs. Steve Lopez - Don't know much about Lopez, other than he's been out of action for a while and this appears to be his UFC debut. That means nerves. That means a win for the more experienced Miller.

Rafaello Oliveira vs. Nik Lentz - Who? Oliveira has an impressive record, but Lentz has the better fight experience, I'd say. I'll pick Lentz.

Rick Story vs. Brian Foster - Foster has a good record, but Story has been a champ and has fought in the UFC at least once. I'll take Story.

Eliot Marshall vs. Jason Brilz - I like Marshall. Seemed like a decent talented guy on TUF. Brilz has a crazy record, though and has beaten some impressive names. This is tough. Marshall is much taller and should enjoy a reach advantage. Both are submission guys. Both have UFC experience. Against my better judgement, I'm gonna pick Marshall 'cause I like him.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Igor Pokrajac - Both guys have great records, but Vlad has faced the tougher guys and has been inside the octagon. I'll pick Matyushenko.

Rob Emerson vs. Rafael Dos Anjos - The loser may be out of the UFC. Or, rather, should be. Dos Anjos has lost both of his UFC fights, while Emerson has a less than impressive record and is getting face time thanks to his TUF appearance. Sure, he won a couple of UFC fights, but not impressively and has been dominated more often than not. I'll pick the unknown Dos Anjos.

Holy crap that's a lot of fights. Thirteen! I can't imagine ALL of the prelims will be shown in the one hour pre-PPV free telecast on Spike. It's a good move by the UFC, though.

UFC Fight Night - Diaz vs Guillard

Fight Night tomorrow night. Guess I should get my picks in quick.

Ok, here goes:

Nate Diaz vs Melvin Guillard – Diaz has to be way smarter than in his previous fights. Fortunately, Guillard is a banger with not much of a game plan, so it seems he may have been hand-picked to get Diaz back on track. I’ll pick Diaz.

Gray Maynard vs Roger Huerta – Much has been made of the fact that Huerta is on his way out of the UFC and MMA to pursue acting, so it seems likely that his heart isn’t 100% in this. If that’s the case, this might be an easy night for Maynard who is on a roll and on his way to a title match someday. If he beats Huerta, look for him to get a shot sooner rather than later. I’ll pick Maynard.

Carlos Condit vs Jake Ellenberger – Jake who? Condit is a former WEC champ who is being groomed by the UFC, likely the reason he’s facing a no name on the main card of a Fight Night. Ellenberger has a respectable record and a fair number of KO/TKOs, but I don’t know him from Adam, so I’ll go with Condit.

Nate Quarry vs Tim Credeur - I like Quarry, so I’ll be pulling for him. Credeur seems like a decent guy but his fighting style isn’t exactly flawless. He ought to give Quarry headaches if it goes to the ground (being more well-rounded), but I sense Quarry will pick him apart and get the TKO. I’ll pick Quarry.

Steve Cantwell vs. Brian Stann – This is actually the third time these two have fought, having split previous stoppages. Stann has power, but Cantwell has submissions and since these two are familiar with each other, I don’t expect Cantwell to get caught again. I’ll pick Cantwell.

Chris Wilson vs. Mike Pyle – Tough call. Wilson beat Rory Markham while Pyle lost to him. Pyle has some tough fights, though, including a loss to Rampage Jackson and a win over Jon Fitch. He also trains with Forrest Griffin and Gray Maynard, so you know he has a work ethic. I’m leaning towards Wilson…

CB Dollaway vs. Jay Silva – Sweet lord, why is CB Dollaway still in the UFC? Someone must STILL think his TUF loss was a fluke. I hope he loses just so that he can go somewhere else to get some experience. He doesn’t look like much, but I’ll pull for Silva. I sense he’s a sacrificial lamb, though.

Sam Stout vs. Phillipe Nover – I like Nover, but bet against a Canadian? Not if I can help it. Besides, Stout has way more octagon experience than the TUF alumnus, so I’m figuring this could be a quick one. Stout.

Jeremy Stephens vs. Justin Buchholz – Stephens doesn’t really turn my crank. I’ve been underwhelmed by his performances, despite some highlight wins. Buchholz’s fights don’t last and he seems to have a more impressive win/loss profile than Stephens, with some submissions thrown in. I’ll pick Buchholz.

Brock Larson vs. Mike Pierce – Brock was supposed to make a run in the UFC. Pierce is being fed to the lions, I suspect. I’ll pick Larson.

Ryan Jensen vs. Steve Steinbeiss – Yikes. Neither of these guys has an impressive history. I’ll pick the more experienced Jensen.

UFC 101 - Results : Penn defends, Griffin humiliated

Well, you can’t say I didn’t call it.

Sure, I wasn’t willing to “bet” against my boy Forrest, but I knew when the fight was first announced that he’d get trounced by Anderson Silva.

I was right.

It wasn’t even close.

They say styles make fights, and this was a complete mismatch. Griffin is a puncher with a relatively weak chin and no knockout power. How the hell was he supposed to beat a guy who has awesome stand up and has insane knockout power? His only hope was to clinch and use his weight to try to take Silva down – that strategy was nowhere to be seen.

The UFC sold some tickets and some PPVs, but in the process, they may have spoiled one of their golden geese by exposing Griffin’s weak chin and, essentially, humiliating him in front of millions.

Griffin certainly didn’t help matters by running out of the ring and, as some are stating, the arena. There were some reports that he ran to the back to get medical attention for a broken jaw and loss of hearing, but those reports appear to be false. I’d still like to hear Griffin’s take on the fight and reason for bolting. I thought he had learned from the fiasco that followed the Keith Jardine fight (another fight that shouldn’t have happened – for completely different reasons), but I guess not. He lost a little bit of my respect, but I’m still hoping there’s a decent explanation.

Who should Silva fight? The obvious choice is champion Lyoto Machida, but apparently that won’t happen since they’re training partners and “like brothers”. Machida is a high calibre fighter with skills similar to Silva’s – hard to hit with good knockout power. Clearly, Silva ought to remain in the light heavyweight division, so if he doesn’t fight the champ… Other “tune-up” fight opponents might include Rampage, Rashad Evans or, get this, Randy Couture. Rampage and Rashad are big guys with good chins and knockout power. Randy, on the other hand, would challenge Silva in close and is known for brilliant strategizing.

If the UFC had big brass balls, though, they’d put Silva in with Lesnar and set up a clash of titans. I’d give Silva even odds against the inexperienced Lesnar - at least.

Ok, let’s move on to the results from UFC 101:

BJ Penn def. Kenny Florian (sub 4) – I thought Florian might pull off the upset, but I didn’t count on a stupid strategy of single-leg takedown attempts and cage hugging. This was clearly not working. I don’t know if Florian was trying to take a page out of training partner GSP’s book, but let’s just say he’s no GSP. Florian had to take Penn down or, failing that, stick to leg kicks all night long and wear down the champ until he could pounce into a ground and pound game. Instead, Florian got outboxed by Penn and hugged his leg while Penn punished him. Seriously. WTF? (picked wrong 0-1)

Silva def. Griffin (TKO 1) – See above. Not even close. This was a non-fight from the start. Had Griffin won it would have been the biggest upset in UFC history. (picked “wrong” 0-2)

Johny Hendricks def. Amir Sadollah (TKO 1) – Despite what some may think, this was a good stoppage. Sadollah was out of it, defenceless (he was on all fours and not looking at his opponent) and at risk of injury. Hendricks looked pretty good in this brief bout. I’m looking forward to his next fight. (picked right 1-2)

Ricardo Almeida def. Kendall Grove (Unan Dec) – Grove was never really in this, except for an arm bar that was set up when he illegally grabbed the cage for leverage (which the ref either missed or dismissed). It drives me nuts when refs don’t call cage grabbing when it leads to a submission opportunity. I’ve seen it a number of times. Anyhow, Almeida didn’t look great, but we ought to see more of him after this. Grove, well, I think he’s out of his league in the UFC, but I’m sure they’ll keep him around due to his name recognition. (picked right 2-2)

Kurt Pellegrino def. Josh Neer (Unan Dec) – I missed most of this fight, but hear it was pretty dull. Looked like a lot of laying and praying in the third. (picked wrong 2-3)

UNDERCARD

Aaron Riley def. Shane Nelson (Unan Dec) – This was the famous rematch. Neither fighter was very impressive, but Riley got the nod, justifiably. (picked wrong 2-4)

John Howard def. Tamdan McCrory (Split Dec) – Wish I’d seen this. Sounds like it was a decent fight, but Howard wore McCrory down late. (picked wrong 2-5)

Alessio Sakara def. Thales Leites (Split Dec) – If reports are true, both of these guys should be kicked out of the UFC as I suggested. I hear it was a crazy boring fight and the fans booed. Thales Leites is coming off a title shot, for Pete’s sake, which goes to show how thin the middleweight division is. (picked wrong 2-6)

Matthew Riddle def. Dan Cramer (Unan Dec) – Would have liked to have seen this, too. (picked right 3-6)

George Sotiropoulos def. George Roop (Sub 2) – George looked good, but should have finished sooner. He had boatloads of opportunities and completely outclassed Roop on the ground. Looking forward to seeing more of him. (picked right 4-6)

Jesse Lennox def. Danillo Villefort (TKO 3) – I picked this blind, so can’t take too much credit. (picked right 5-6)

Ok, so the divining rod let me down, but considering I didn’t really pick Forrest to win, it was more like 6-5 than 5-6. I’ll try to do better next time.

UFC 101 Predictions

The UFC heads to Philadelphia on Friday for UFC 101.

Can it continue the heat and media buzz generated by UFC 100? I doubt it, but it's still shaping up to be a pretty good card.

The main event features BJ Penn vs Kenny Florian for the lightweight belt, but make no mistake: people are tuning in to see Forrest Griffin take on the seemingly unbeatable Anderson Silva in Griffin's light heavyweight class. I'm a big Griffin mark, but I do not like his chances in this one. At the end of the night, I'm either going to be elated or depressed. I guess we'll see.

Now for my predictions:

BJ Penn vs. Kenny Florian (lightweight)

This could be a really good fight. BJ likes to stand and bang when he can, but is known primarily for his jiu jitsu. Florian has good stand up and should enjoy a reach advantage. he's also well versed in jiu jitsu and could be on top if the fight hits the mat. If so, he's known for his finishing skills. Penn is still hurting from his destruction at the hands of GSP and could wilt if the fight isn't going his way. Penn is "the master" but he's also a big effing baby. Which Penn will shine through?

My money's on: Florian in a big upset. He doesn't look like much, but with the exception of Sherk's "lay and pray" strategy, Florian seems to be able to take what his opponents dish out and return the punishment in spades. I see a stand up battle at first, with Florian gradually taking the cardio advantage and punishing Penn on the mat.

Forrest Griffin vs. Anderson Silva (light heavyweight)

Silva is a beast at either middleweight or light heavyweight and has hands of stone. Griffin has terrific cardio and is always game, but has shown he can be knocked silly. Is it just a matter of time before he gets caught by the very accurate Brazilian and becomes another victim? Or will he come up with a strategy that will defy the odds and give him the biggest win of his life? (sorry, Rampage) I don't like Griffin's chances, but if you think I'm betting against him, you're nuts.

My money's on: Griffin. Not really, but I can't bet against him and don't want to "push". This would be a way bigger upset than the Florian victory. I give him a 10% shot at best.

Amir Sadollah Vs. Johny Hendricks (welterweight)

I like Sadollah and he has pulled off some surprising wins, but, really, he isn't THAT talented. CB Dollaway is way overrated. Hendricks has been plying his trade in WEC where the talent level isn't quite as high, but at least he has experience - and anyone who has a win by D'Arce Choke deserves respect.

My money's on: Hendricks. I like the look of this guy and think that after this win, the UFC will look to move him up the ladder.

Kendall Grove Vs. Ricardo Almeida (middleweight)

Grove was a guy I really wanted to watch after his TUF win, but he's been disappointing in his last few fights. He really got exposed by Jorge Rivera and Patrick Cote. Sure he has a win over former champ Evan Tanner, but Tanner was never that well rounded. Almeida, on the other hand, seems to be a guy who just doesn't deliver like he should. He's a talented guy, no doubt - he has a submission victory over Nate Marquardt - but he's never been that impressive (he has lost to Patrick Cote and Andrei Semenov).

My money's on: Almeida. If he doesn't beat Grove, send him packing.

Josh Neer Vs. Kurt Pellegrino (lightweight)

People seem to think highly of both of these fighters, but I haven't been that impressed. Pellegrino has lost to Nate Diaz, Joe Stevenson and Drew Fickett and beaten....who?... Rob Emerson? Thiago Tavares?... Junior Assuncao? Clearly he's not top notch. "The Dentist" Josh Neer has beaten a bunch of meatheads (Joe Stevenson and Melvin Guillard the possible exceptions) and lost to Nick AND Nate Diaz, Josh Burkman, Mark Miller, Drew Fickett and Spencer Fisher. Why is this fight on the main card?

My money's on: Neer. It's a toss up. Neer is bigger and more experienced, so there you go.

UNDERCARD

Shane Nelson Vs. Aaron Riley (lightweight) - Neither one has an impressive pedigree. Riley is far more experienced, but has lost to every significant fighter he's faced. This is a rematch set thanks to a controversial stoppage at UFC 96. I didn't see it, but I heard it was bad. Still, I'll take Nelson in the rematch, too.

Tamdan McCrory Vs. John Howard (welterweight) - I like this McCrory kid. If he can avoid those bloody armbars, it would seem he'd have a very promising career. I'll pick McCrory to submit Howard.

Thales Leites Vs. Alessio Sakara (middleweight) - Who would have thought a few months ago that we'd be seeing this fight buried in the undercard? These are two "name" guys who have fallen by the wayside. Leites looked promising at first, but put in such a stinker in his title fight against Anderson Silva that the UFC will probably toss him out on his ass if he lays another egg on Saturday. "Legionarius" was given much fanfare by the UFC commentators when he showed up, but he's been way way way less than impressive. He beat perennial punching bag Elvis Sinosic, but then dropped four of his next six UFC fights, including a devastating knockout by upstart Houton Alexander. How is this guy still in the UFC?! He should be shown the door if he loses Saturday. Oh, I guess my money's on Leites.

Matthew Riddle Vs. Dan Cramer (welterweight) - This ought to be fun. I like Riddle, so I'll pick him.

George Sotiropoulos Vs. George Roop (lightweight) - Some more TUF guys. I like Sotiropoulos, so I guess I'll pick him. He does seem to have the more impressive pedigree.

Jesse Lennox Vs. Danillo Villefort (welterweight) - I don't know these guys at all, so this is blind. Villefort is slightly bigger with Lennox having the slightly better record. He also has a significant number of submissions, so I'll take Lennox.