UFC 139 Results

This was a great card and from what I saw it did not disappoint.

Dan Henderson def. Maurcio Rua (unanimous)
What's a UFC event without controversy? Dan Henderson did very well for the first three rounds and then proceeded to shut it down and get his ass handed to him by Shogun Rua for the next ten minutes. Fortunately for him, the judges gave him 3 out of the 5 rounds and he got the unanimous decision. So where's the controversy? Well, if there was EVER an argument for a 10-8 (or even 10-7) round, Rua's utter dominance of Hendo in round #5 was it. Rua SLAUGHTERED Henderson for five full minutes. Shame on Rua for not finding a way to end it (submission, anyone?) but you HAD to give him 10-8 or better. Not ONE judge gave him the 10-8 margin, though, which would have made all the difference. I had it 47-47 and a draw - a fitting end to a fight that was so evenly matched overall. These guys deserve to go at it again. A win for Hendo was a bit disgraceful, considering how pathetic he looked for the final two rounds. And if he gets a TITLE SHOT after this?! Please. No one tuning in half way through could have possibly imagined the man on the bottom, getting relentlessly pummeled, could have POSSIBLY won that fight. Chalk another on up to bizarre judging. (0-1)

Wanderlei Silva def. Cung Le (TKO 2)
Wow. This was awesome. Silva looked tentative and nervous at first, and hung out on the periphery while Le measured him. But then Silva started letting his shots go and the tide turned quickly. Le has a questionable gas tank and Silva exploited it in the second round. In the end, Silva was just too much and Le was messed up. Great fight between two free swingers. (1-1)

Urijah Faber def. Brian Bowles (sub 2)
Give Faber credit for getting the submission against a tough opponent. Thanks to this, Faber will get YET ANOTHER title shot. Is there a fighter in MMA who gets more credit for wins than Faber? I dunno. Maybe other guys should get a shot once in a while? (1-2)

Martin Kampmann def. Rick Story (split)
Controversy again, in my mind. Story MAY have won round one, but who in their right mind had him winning one of the last two rounds? Kampmann clearly won those two. A split decision does not do Kampmann's win justice. This should have been at least 29-28 across the board. (2-2)

Stephan Bonnar def. Kyle Kingsbury (unanimous)
Bonnar fought smart (but dull) while Kingsbury honestly just did not show up. I thought Kingsbury would have an advantage in the wrestling department, but Bonnar flat-out schooled his less experienced opponent. Once Bonnar got on top, he used his underrated jiujitsu to secure the win. This was a big step back for Kingsbury. (2-3)

Ryan Bader def. Jason Brilz (KO 1)
Quick fight. Bader used his power, clipped Brilz behind the ear and it was all over. Puts Bader back on track. Look for him to get put back on the fast track with a much tougher opponent. (3-3)

Michael McDonald def. Alex Soto (KO 1)
McDonald looked great. He used his stand-up effectively and Soto got KTFO in under one minute. Things are looking up for the youngster. (4-3)

Chris Weidman def. Tom Lawlor (sub 1)
Weidman continues to surprise and look good. Lawlor is no push over, but Weidman seemed to finish him with ease. This kid has lots of potential. (5-3)

Gleison Tibau def. Rafael Dos Anjos (split)
Didn't see it. Fight metrics show Tibau got in more shots and a couple of take downs. (6-3)

Miguel Angel Torres def. Nick Pace (unanimous)
Didn't see it. Looks like it may have been the mismatch I expected. (7-3)

Seth Baczynski def. Matt Brown (sub 2)
This wasn't pretty, but it went the way I thought it would. Brown likes to swing and throw knees inside but he doesn't seem to have the complete game that is needed. He tends to get caught somehow and he did here, once again. Too bad. (8-3)

Danny Castillo def. Shamar Bailey (TKO 1)
Debatable early stoppage - especially with 8 seconds left in the round - but Bailey was pulling the turtle and was warned by the ref to fight back. Castillo pretty much dominated. (9-3)

Not bad!

UFC 139 Picks

I didn't bother making picks for UFC on Fox. It was a pretty crap card aside from the main event and the Henderson-Guida fight, which was awesome. Some people didn't give Dos Santos much of a chance against Velasquez, but it came as no surprise to me that he won. Velasquez had never really had his chin tested, except a bit against Kongo when he got rocked but recovered. I knew that if Dos Santos could stuff the takedowns he'd have a pretty good chance. Turns out he only had to stuff one before getting the big KO.

But now it's on to a real card - UFC 139. Let's get to it.

Dan Henderson vs. Maurcio Rua (light heavyweight)
So Hendo is back in the UFC and still can't seem to settle on a weight class. I think he'd have more success as a middleweight, personally, but if he wants to take on bigger guys, good for him. This is a huge fight for him. If he wins, he's right back in the title picture. If he loses, though, a lot of people will say he has lost it and point to his loss to Jake Shields as proof, despite his more recent victory over previously highly-touted Fedor Emelianenko. Rua is coming off his gimme win over Forrest Griffin (another no-win scenario fight for Griffin to take) and is looking to get back in the title hunt after getting smoked by current champ Jon Bones Jones. Both of these guys have power. Hendo has wrestling going for him, which appears to be a bit of a weakness for Rua. But Rua is smarter, more skilled, and has BJJ on his side. Can Hendo get Rua down? I dunno. I see this as a stand up war. I see Rua getting the decision. I'm picking Rua.

Cung Lee vs Wanderlei Silva (middleweight)
Silva has lost 6 of 8. Normally, that would get you kicked out of the UFC, but the UFC likes keeping legends around. This, again, falls into the category of guys getting fights for who they are not what they are. But Lee is not exactly a top level opponent at this time, so he has a chance. Lee has been away from MMA, pursuing an acting career. Frankly, the only reason we know his name is because he was a big fish in the small Strikeforce pond. For the most part, he has fought guys who couldn't cut it in the UFC. Sure, his record is good, but it's inflated, much like Fedor's. He's flashy and can throw punches and kicks from crazy angles, but can he withstand a Silva berserker attack. Silva isn't exactly known for fighting smart, so it remains to be seen if he can execute a proper gameplan. I could see Lee getting a decision, but Silva getting a KO. I don't like Silva's chances, but I'm gonna pick him anyway. I'm going with Silva.

Brian Bowles vs Urijah Faber (bantamweight)
This could be fight of the night. Talented, relentless guys in a speedy weight class. Faber is the name, but Bowles is the favourite in my mind. Frankly, I think Faber is overrated. Sure, he puts in the effort, but he seems to worry too much about putting on a good show and not enough about winning smart. I'm picking Bowles.

Martin Kampmann vs Rick Story (welterweight)
Another good fight. Both of these guys have done well and were on the rise before getting derailed. On paper, Kampmann is the more talented, well-rounded fighter. Story has shown, though, that he can overcome odds and upset favoured opponents. Still, I think Kampmann will fight smart and get the W. I'm picking Kampmann.

Stephan Bonnar vs Kyle Kingsbury (light heavyweight)
Another terrific match-up. This could be a war. Kingsbury is a beast, but does not necessarily fight smart. Bonnar is a relentless machine who takes punishment and keeps coming. This is not likely to be the prettiest fight of the night, but it's another FOTN candidate. If Kingsbury is smart, this could be a walk in the park - he just needs to take Bonnar down and keep him there. Boxing would be a mistake. I like Bonnar and all, but I'm picking Kingsbury in a disappointingly dull decision.

Ryan Bader vs Jason Brilz (light heavyweight)
How the mighty have fallen. Bader was considered a very strong up-and-comer until he ran into current champ Jon Jones and got slaughtered. Then the got submitted by a very fortunate Tito Ortiz and suddenly he's on the undercard. On paper, this is a mismatch in Bader's favour. He has more skills than Brilz, a better record, and he has beaten guys Brilz has lost to. So, no surprise, I'm picking Bader.

Michael McDonald vs Alex Soto (bantamweight)
Alex Soto is a replacement for Johnny Eduardo and is in tough against the more experienced McDonald. I'm picking McDonald.

Tom Lawlor vs Chris Weidman (middleweight)
Weidman is pretty raw, but has been impressive. Lawlor has talent, but has been upset more than once. Lawlor should have the experience edge, but he's fighting a guy who is also a wrestler, so he can't really rely on his top strength. I'm gonna go with the upset and pick Weidman.

Gleison Tibau vs Rafael Dos Anjos (lightweight)
Tibau is back again. I never know what to make of this guy. Sometimes he looks great, other times he looks awful. Dos Anjos is super talented at BJJ, but Tibau has some skills, too. Tibau is likely better ion the feet, though, which is where this fight will likely remain. Tough call. I'll pick the more experienced Tibau.

Miguel Angel Torres vs Nick Pace (bantamweight)
Speaking of fallen mighties...Holy cow. Torres was a big shot in WEC and a champ they thought would be on top forever. Suddenly he's near the bottom of the undercard? I guess losing 3 of 5 will do that. And how does a guys who is 38-4 get a fight against a guy who is 6-2? I thought they had commissions for this very reason. If Pace wins, I think it'll be a serious upset and perhaps the beginning of the end for Torres' long career. I'm picking Torres.

Matt Brown vs Seth Baczynski (welterweight)
Brown is a likable guy, but to be honest he simply isn't that good. After losing three in a row, he avoided being cut and got a win over John Howard. Baczynski is bigger than Brown and knows submissions - something by which Brown is prone to getting defeated. I'm picking Baczynski.

Shamar Bailey vs Danny Castillo (lightweight)
Bailey is known to TUF fans where he was favoured but did not reach the finals. Castillo does not have Bailey's celebrity, but he does have a more impressive resume, having fought some of the top dogs in the lightweight division. In fact, his only losses are against top guys, with the exception perhaps of Jacob Volkmann to whom he lost 29-28 on all cards. Both are wrestlers, but Castillo is also a striker. I'm gonna pick the upset and take Castillo.

Great card. I hope I get to see it!

UFC 103 Predictions

Ok, prediction time again. Let's see if I can do better than on the Fight Night this week.

Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort

Belfort is making his much-anticipated return to the UFC. The "Phenom" is trying to recapture some of his previous glory, but the UFC is not making it easy for him. Franklin may not seem super dangerous, but you can't knock the fact that he wins. Sure, he looked bad against Anderson Silva (twice) but who hasn't? The Dan Henderson fight was close, and Hendo certainly didn't dominate Franklin. Can Vitor knock out Franklin? I don't see it. As a result, I see Franklin getting a decision win.

Mirko Cro Cop vs. Junior Dos Santos

Dos Santos has looked dangerous while Cro Cop has been lacklustre to say the least in his UFC fights. As always, if Cro Cop can get the KO, he wins, but if it goes to a decision, I wouldn't bet on him. Hate to say it, but I'll take the younger Dos Santos to get the nod and the questions to heat up as to the relevance of Cro Cop in the UFC.

Martin Kampmann vs. Paul Daley

Don't know much about Daley. He's taking the fight on short notice, replacing the injured Mike Swick. Kampmann has been impressive, except in his loss to Marquardt. At welterweight? I'll take Kampmann nine times out of ten - except against GSP.

Josh Koscheck vs. Frank Trigg

I can't believe I'm gonna do this. I'm taking Koscheck. The guy comes off as a complete douche, but he's younger and faster than Trigg and I see Trigg getting a rough welcome in his UFC return. Trigg will be used as a stepping stone after this.

Tyson Griffin vs. Hermes Franca

Can't say I have much love for Franca after his positive drug test. Griffin has been impressive. Good speed and big heart. I'll take Griffin.

UNDERCARD

Efrain Escudero vs. Cole Miller - Efrain is undefeated but Miller is a tall, smart guy and has beaten some big names while Escudero is unproven. I'm picking Miller.

Drew McFedries vs. Tomasz Drwal - McFedries is dangerous as hell...for one round. Then he runs out of gas. Drwal is dangerous as hell, too, with many short fights on his resume, including some submissions. I'll take Drwal by submission in a short one.

Jim Miller vs. Steve Lopez - Don't know much about Lopez, other than he's been out of action for a while and this appears to be his UFC debut. That means nerves. That means a win for the more experienced Miller.

Rafaello Oliveira vs. Nik Lentz - Who? Oliveira has an impressive record, but Lentz has the better fight experience, I'd say. I'll pick Lentz.

Rick Story vs. Brian Foster - Foster has a good record, but Story has been a champ and has fought in the UFC at least once. I'll take Story.

Eliot Marshall vs. Jason Brilz - I like Marshall. Seemed like a decent talented guy on TUF. Brilz has a crazy record, though and has beaten some impressive names. This is tough. Marshall is much taller and should enjoy a reach advantage. Both are submission guys. Both have UFC experience. Against my better judgement, I'm gonna pick Marshall 'cause I like him.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Igor Pokrajac - Both guys have great records, but Vlad has faced the tougher guys and has been inside the octagon. I'll pick Matyushenko.

Rob Emerson vs. Rafael Dos Anjos - The loser may be out of the UFC. Or, rather, should be. Dos Anjos has lost both of his UFC fights, while Emerson has a less than impressive record and is getting face time thanks to his TUF appearance. Sure, he won a couple of UFC fights, but not impressively and has been dominated more often than not. I'll pick the unknown Dos Anjos.

Holy crap that's a lot of fights. Thirteen! I can't imagine ALL of the prelims will be shown in the one hour pre-PPV free telecast on Spike. It's a good move by the UFC, though.

UFC Changes Franklin 103 Match-up

Looks like someone at the UFC is listening.

I gave my two cents about the lack of logic behind Franklin-Henderson II scheduled for UFC 103 and it seems I may not have been the only one. The UFC has changed its mind and now has Franklin facing returning former champion Vitor Belfort.

The lack of logic in this one? It's being contested at a catchweight of 195.

Why?

Is the UFC trying to create a new division for Franklin? Why have him move from middleweight to light heavyweight if you're just going to have him competing at these catchweight levels? This doesn't help him move up the rankings nor prove his value to the light heavyweight division.

Maybe the UFC figures the division is already stacked and this keeps Franklin from getting pummeled by the likes of Forrest Griffin and Rampage Jackson.

Still, I'm looking forward to UFC 103 - it's shaping up to be an interesting card.

Stay tuned for UFC 101 predictions.

Franklin vs Henderson (again) at UFC 103

I don’t get it.

The UFC announced that Rich Franklin will get a rematch against Dan Henderson at UFC 103.

…Why?

As you may recall, the two met at UFC 93 to determine who would get to coach Team USA against team UK in The Ultimate Fighter 9. Henderson got the split decision nod. The scoring was a bit odd, as two judges had it 29-28 Hendo while the third had Franklin winning all three rounds. I seem to recall the fight being close, but I can’t remember what I thought of the decision. I think I agreed that Hendo won the fight…

Here’s the thing: what’s the point? I mean, sure, it’s a rematch of a close fight featuring two popular guys, but what’s the upside here? If Franklin wins, then it’s 1-1 and, what, we get a third fight? If Hendo wins, it’s yet another big step back for the former champ.

There seems to be some hinting that the winner will get a shot at Anderson Silva.

Huh?

This would seem to imply that the fight will take place at middleweight. Why is Franklin coming back down? And if he wins, who in their right mind wants to see him fight Silva AGAIN? So that he can get destroyed again? I thought the whole point of Franklin moving back up to light heavyweight was to get away from Silva and improve his odds of getting a belt. So why return to middleweight?

I just don’t get it.

Is the middleweight division THAT pathetic that we need to see Silva-Henderson II or Silva-Franklin III?

…Guess so.

I think the UFC was really banking on Bisping beating Henderson and earning a title shot overseas. Now they’re scrambling.

As stupid as it sounds (since he's lost 5 out of 6 fights - mostly at light heavy), wouldn't Henderson-Wanderlei make more sense? At least those two have split previous meetings, there's bad blood between Wanderlei and Anderson (if he earns a title fight), and Wanderlei WANTS to be a middleweight... The UFC wants to see a Wanderlei-Anderson fight. Wouldn't this be a good way to earn it in the proper weight class?

Right now, Franklin is on a road to ruin. He should stay at light heavyweight and not look back.

Nothing else makes sense.

UFC 100 - Results

Ok, let's see how I did...

Lesnar def. Mir - I picked Mir 'cause I figured he'd withstand the initial attack, better than he did last time. Well, I guess that didn't happen. I'm glad Lesnar won, but man he was a douche afterwards. Glad he apologized in the press conference. Props to Dana White for taking him to task. Lesnar can now play the villain champ, which will be good for UFC PPV buys - everyone will wanna see him lose. I picked wrong (0-1), but my fav won.

GSP def. Thiago Alves - Not a close fight. GSP dominated from the opening bell. He was on his back for about a minute only because he gave up position while going for a submission. Let's hope his injury isn't serious. I picked right (1-1).

Henderson def. Bisping - It went the way I thougth it would, aside from Bisping getting clobbered. Bisping inexplicably kept circling to the left, putting him in range of Henderson's killer right. That was certainly a highligh reel knockout. Was the follow-up shot overdoing it? Dunno. Sure, he could have pulle dup, but at least it was one shot, not the 5-10 some guys throw in after the guy is out. This is a serious speed bump in Bisping's title journey. Picked wrong, though I waffled back and forth and actually changed my pick at the last minute (1-2).

Fitch def. Thiago - Not a great fight. Fitch looked pretty good, but not as stellar as we've seen recently. He'll have to put together a few wins if he wants another title shot against GSP, who smoked his ass. Picked right (2-2).

Akiyama def. Belcher - I went back and forth on this one and changed my vote at the last minute. After doing some research, I figured Akiyama was overhyped and Belcher would squeeze it out with experience. It looked that way in the ring, too. Akiyama won the second round for sure, but I felt he lost the third and the first was a toss-up. Belcher and the announcers clearly thought Belcher had won. It suited UFC's purposes to see the new star, Akiyama, get the nod and he did. This may have been an example of reputation getting the edge. How one judge saw it 30-27 is beyond me. Picked wrong (2-3).

Coleman def. Bonnar - I have to see this to believe it. Bonnar ought to be let go from the UFC after this. He clearly is not improving, unlike other TUF alumni like Griffin and Evans. Picked wrong (2-4).

Miller def. Danzig - Wanna see this one too. Danzig is in trouble and may see his UFC career end prematurely. He's had tough bouts, but he hasn't impressed. Picked right (3-4).

Jones def. O'Brien - This guy is one to watch. Too bad we didn't get to. Picked right (4-4).

Kim def. Grant - Too bad the Canadian lost. Picked right (5-4).

Lawlor def. Dollaway - Yet another where I changed my vote at the last minute and paid for it. Definitely wanna see this. Dollaway is on his way out. Picked wrong (5-5).

Gugerty def. Grice - Grice was pissed after this one. Picked right (6-5).

So 2-3 on the main card (should have been 4-1) and 4-2 on the undercard. Not too bad, but no one's hiring me as an analyst at this rate!

Next up: Griffin vs. Silva and Penn vs. Florian. Ought to be interesting!

UFC 100 - Predictions

Brock Lesnar vs Frank Mir (heavyweight)

Lesnar has to learn how to finish. He can be overwhelming early, but if he has to go 25 minutes with Mir, odds are good Mir will find a way to submit the big man somehow. Mir won’t be surprised by Lesnar’s speed and power again, and ought to be able to weather the early storm.

My money’s on: Mir. I like Lesnar and hope he wins, but I just think Mir is smart enough to find some way to submit the monster.

Georges St. Pierre vs Thiago Alves (welterweight)

This ought to be interesting. Alves is powerful and that’s usually GSP’s game. GSP will use his reach and boxing to keep Thiago at bay and then maybe throw him on his ass when he has the advantage. It’ll be interesting to see if Thiago can take GSP down.

My money’s on: GSP. No way I bet against him. He’s too smart and too good. He only loses by fluke.

Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping (middleweight)

This could have been a main event fight, but with this being UFC 100, well… This is of course the Ultimate Fighter coaches match. Team UK clearly won the show, but who will win the final battle? Henderson is the vet but he really hasn’t been very impressive since coming over from Pride where he was a champ in two weight classes.

My money’s on: Bisping. I’ve been back and forth on this one. I think Henderson would have won if he were 5 years younger, but he just seems to have lost a step. I see Bisping winning a decision if it stays on the feet. Could be a pretty boring fight. Hope I’m wrong.

John Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago (welterweight)

I don’t know too much about Thiago, but Fitch is a beast. He was humbled by GSP, but who hasn’t been recently?

My money’s on: Fitch. He’s a warrior.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Alan Belcher (middleweight)

Akiyama has an impressive record, but Belcher has been the guy in the UFC trenches. He also enjoys a significant size advantage. The UFC will want Akiyama to get the nod so that they can start building him up. Both have beaten Denis Kang, which is no small feat.

My money’s on: Belcher. It’s about time he stepped up and lived up to the rep.

UNDERCARD

Mark Coleman vs. Stephan Bonnar (light heavyweight) - If Bonnar doesn’t win, he ought to quit. I mean, come on, Coleman? He’s ancient! I’m picking Bonnar. Could be a war.

Mac Danzig vs. Jim Miller (lightweight) – Danzig had momentum coming off the TUF win, but he’s been less than stellar since, to be honest. I’ll pick Miller.

Jon Jones vs. Jake O’Brien (light heavyweight) – Both have had impressive outings. I’ll go with the Martian Manhunter – Jones.

Dong Hyun Kim vs. TJ Grant (welterweight) – Don’t know too much about these guys, but Kim has been impressive and is undefeated. Anyone who can go to a split decision with Karo Parisyan deserves respect. I’ll pick Kim, even though Grant is Canadian.

CB Dollaway vs. Tom Lawlor (middleweight) – Features two TUF grads. On paper, Dollaway ought to be favoured, but he usually finds a way to make fights closer than they ought to be. Lawlor wasn’t impressive on the show. I’ll pick Dollaway in this one.

Matt Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty (lightweight) – Don’t know these guys. Normally I’d go with the height advantage or better record, but they’re not that different. Grice’s UFC results aren’t very impressive while Gugerty went almost three rounds with Spencer Fisher. I’ll take Gugerty.