UFC 121 Thoughts

Was pretty busy, so didn't have time to post my picks. Oops. I know you're all terribly disappointed.

I can give you my quick two cents, though.

Cain Velasquez def. Brock Lesnar (TKO 1)
This fight really exposed Lesnar's chin. He can throw a mean right hand, but he also cowers and covers up at the first sign of strong resistance. Not good. Lesnar need sot get punched in the face a few times by training partners to get over this impulse. His weaknesses seem to be psychological. you need to keep your wits about you when your opponent is standing over you dropping bombs. This is a tough task and requires significant mental discipline. So Velasquez is the new champ. Will it last? I dunno. He's good, but considering how much trouble he had against Cheick Kongo, you'll forgive me if I don't bestow godhood upon him. I could see him getting taken out by a wise veteran like Randy Couture or Frank Mir. Even Shane Carwin has to be foaming at the mouth. What's next for Lesnar? Well, some rest for one. But who else can this guy fight? I mean he's already beaten Couture, Carwin, Mir and Herring, so you can't really put him up against also-rans like Cro Cop or Barry or Kongo... So does Lesnar just keep getting title fights? He'll get a tune-up and, if he wins that, surely he'll get a rematch. But frankly he needs experience. Seven fights ain't much.

Jake Shields def. Martin Kampmann (split)
I wasn't surprised by the decision (unlike others) but I was not impressed by Shields. Does this fight earn him a title fight? Hell no. At least, not in my opinion. Dana White seems to think otherwise. Shields hasn't beaten anyone of significance in the UFC (Kampmann is tough, but not THAT tough) and his Strikeforce/EliteXC days can kiss my ass. How do these welterweights keep getting title fights without having to fight other top contenders? Shields should have to beat Fitch or Koscheck or Hardy or Alves or Hughes or SOMEONE who has fought for the title in the last five years before getting GSP. This is goofy.

Diego Sanchez def. Paulo Thiago (unanimous)
Would the real Diego Sanchez PLEASE stand up? Seriously. Diego has been LOST his last few fights, even if he got a title shot against Penn, but he shows up like a mofo against the very tough Thiago. Where has this guy been? Let's hope he keeps it up. He should still drop to lightweight in my opinion, though.

Matt Hamill def. Tito Ortiz (unanimous)
How long before the UFC cuts Ortiz? Who knows. He is a shadow of his former self, that's for sure. He needs a good camp. He needs someone to show him what he's doing wrong. His style is antiquated and isn't going to get him anywhere. He hasn't won a fight in four years and his two wins prior to that were over the geriatric Ken Shamrock. The UFC keeps Ortiz but cuts the very game Patrick Cote who is coming off an injury layoff and lost to a lay and prayer? Doesn't seem to make much sense... Hamill didn't look THAT good.

Brendan Schaub def. Gabriel Gonzaga (unanimous)
Pretty dull fight. Not a lot of leather thrown and Gonzaga didn't try hard enough to get this to the ground. not sure what his gameplan was.

Court McGee def. Ryan Jensen (sub 2)
McGee looked alright. Needs a lot more seasoning before he moves up the ladder.

Tom Lawlor def. Patrick Cote (unanimous)
Boring as hell. Cote couldn't get past Lawlor's ground game and the ref didn't stand them up enough to save him. Cote gets cut afterwards despite being two fights removed from a title fight (in which he was doing alright against Anderson Silva) and getting pile driven by Alan Belcher. Lawlor lays and prays his way to victory. Let's hope Cote can get his act together and come back.

Daniel Roberts def. Mike Guymon (sub 1)
Roberts looked good. Guymon looked lost.

Sam Stout def. Paul Taylor (split)
Didn't see it. I imagine it was a decent boxing match.

Chris Camozzi def. Dongi Yang (split)
Didn't see it.

Jon Madsen def. Gilbert Yvel (KO 1)
Yvel is in the UFC...why? He sucks. Seriously.

UFC 113 Montreal Picks

Not a lot of time to fart around today, so let's get to the picks for UFC 113 in Montreal.

Lyoto Machida vs Shogun Rua (light heavyweight) - This the "much anticipated" sequel to UFC 104 when a controversial decision prompted the UFC to grant an "immediate" rematch. As I said before, I didn't think Rua deserved the original title fight, but, hey, I don't get to pick the fights, so here we are. I'm not sure either of these guys are in the top two in this division, but circumstances have brought them here. I'm going to assume that Machida will be smarter this time and not be surprised by Rua's leg chops. I'll pick Machida. If Rua wins, every fighter who is Forrest Griffin or beaten Forrest Griffin will be chomping at the bit for a shot.

Josh Koscheck vs Paul Daley (welterweight) - If they stay on the feet, Daley will KO the loud-mouthed bleach blonde but if Koscheck can get the fight to the ground, look for him to lay and pray a decision. Koscheck is cocky enough to challenge Daley on his feet, so I'll pick Daley.

Sam Stout vs Jeremy Stephens (lightweight) - Can I really go against the Canadian? I dunno. Stout can be impressive, but at times he is predictable and one-dimensional. He tends to stand and box, but this is MMA not the WBC. Stephens is a spark plug. Still, I’ll pick Stout by decision.

Kimbo Slice vs Matt Mitrione (heavyweight) – Why does Kimbo fight at heavyweight and not light heavy? I don’t get it. He’s listed at 215, so can’t he cut 10 pounds? It puts him at a disadvantage against bigger, heavier guys. Mitrione isn’t the biggest heavyweight around, but he’s close enough. If Mitrione had serious wrestling skills, I’d pick him in a heartbeat, but he tends to stand and bang. He’s got the fists to back it up, too. My head says to pick Mitrione, but Kimbo needs this win and he is being fed his type of opponent. I’ll pick Kimbo for fun, but I wouldn’t lay money on it.

Patrick Cote vs Alan Belcher (middleweight) – Identical records, but Belcher is the bigger guy and has more skills. Belcher seems to always might mid-card guys whereas Cote has a little more time in the sun thanks to matches against Tito Ortiz, Anderson Silva and his TUF experience. When in doubt, go with the Canadian, I guess. I’ll pick Cote.

Joe Doerksen vs Tom Lawlor (middleweight) – Doerksen has an insane amount of experience and, well, he’s Canadian. Lawlor is a wrestler, Doerksen is a JJ guy. I’ll got with Team Canada again. Doerksen for the nod.

Marcus Davis vs Jonathan Goulet (welterweight) – I’m picking Davis. No doubt about it. If you’re betting on Goulet you have too much money to burn. Goulet does occasionally show up, but not recently in the UFC (though he did shockingly win Fight of the Night last time in Montreal – didn’t see it). His fights have been highlight reel fodder for his opponents. Make no mistake: Goulet is on the card ONLY because the event is in Montreal. I’m picking my boy Davis. Let’s hope this is the start of a new winning streak for him.

TJ Grant vs Johny Hendricks (welterweight) – Once again, I’m going to go against the Canadian. TJ Grant has a very decent record but Hendricks has been amazing and remains undefeated. I’m picking Hendricks.

Tim Hague vs Joey Beltran (heavyweight) – Which Hague will show up? The one who debuted with the UFC and choked a dude out or the one who got KO’d in 7 seconds? He was apparently robbed his last time out (didn’t see it) so here’s thinking he’ll be hungry and looking to finish. Beltran has an impressive record but his last fight against Rolles Gracie was far form impressive. I’ll pick Hague.

Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs Mike Guymon (welterweight) – Yoshida ended up on Koscheck’s highlight reel but he has a better record than that. Guymon really has zip on his resume though he has a decent record. I’ll pick Yoshida.

Jason MacDonald vs John Salter (middleweight) – MacDonald stepped in for David Loiseau who stepped in for Nick Catone. You gotta wonder what this does to Salter. When guys don’t get to prepare for a specific opponent, it’s all about your skill. MacDonald has more experience and he does have skills when he uses his head and sticks to his game plan. I’ll pick MacDonald.

UFC 101 Predictions

The UFC heads to Philadelphia on Friday for UFC 101.

Can it continue the heat and media buzz generated by UFC 100? I doubt it, but it's still shaping up to be a pretty good card.

The main event features BJ Penn vs Kenny Florian for the lightweight belt, but make no mistake: people are tuning in to see Forrest Griffin take on the seemingly unbeatable Anderson Silva in Griffin's light heavyweight class. I'm a big Griffin mark, but I do not like his chances in this one. At the end of the night, I'm either going to be elated or depressed. I guess we'll see.

Now for my predictions:

BJ Penn vs. Kenny Florian (lightweight)

This could be a really good fight. BJ likes to stand and bang when he can, but is known primarily for his jiu jitsu. Florian has good stand up and should enjoy a reach advantage. he's also well versed in jiu jitsu and could be on top if the fight hits the mat. If so, he's known for his finishing skills. Penn is still hurting from his destruction at the hands of GSP and could wilt if the fight isn't going his way. Penn is "the master" but he's also a big effing baby. Which Penn will shine through?

My money's on: Florian in a big upset. He doesn't look like much, but with the exception of Sherk's "lay and pray" strategy, Florian seems to be able to take what his opponents dish out and return the punishment in spades. I see a stand up battle at first, with Florian gradually taking the cardio advantage and punishing Penn on the mat.

Forrest Griffin vs. Anderson Silva (light heavyweight)

Silva is a beast at either middleweight or light heavyweight and has hands of stone. Griffin has terrific cardio and is always game, but has shown he can be knocked silly. Is it just a matter of time before he gets caught by the very accurate Brazilian and becomes another victim? Or will he come up with a strategy that will defy the odds and give him the biggest win of his life? (sorry, Rampage) I don't like Griffin's chances, but if you think I'm betting against him, you're nuts.

My money's on: Griffin. Not really, but I can't bet against him and don't want to "push". This would be a way bigger upset than the Florian victory. I give him a 10% shot at best.

Amir Sadollah Vs. Johny Hendricks (welterweight)

I like Sadollah and he has pulled off some surprising wins, but, really, he isn't THAT talented. CB Dollaway is way overrated. Hendricks has been plying his trade in WEC where the talent level isn't quite as high, but at least he has experience - and anyone who has a win by D'Arce Choke deserves respect.

My money's on: Hendricks. I like the look of this guy and think that after this win, the UFC will look to move him up the ladder.

Kendall Grove Vs. Ricardo Almeida (middleweight)

Grove was a guy I really wanted to watch after his TUF win, but he's been disappointing in his last few fights. He really got exposed by Jorge Rivera and Patrick Cote. Sure he has a win over former champ Evan Tanner, but Tanner was never that well rounded. Almeida, on the other hand, seems to be a guy who just doesn't deliver like he should. He's a talented guy, no doubt - he has a submission victory over Nate Marquardt - but he's never been that impressive (he has lost to Patrick Cote and Andrei Semenov).

My money's on: Almeida. If he doesn't beat Grove, send him packing.

Josh Neer Vs. Kurt Pellegrino (lightweight)

People seem to think highly of both of these fighters, but I haven't been that impressed. Pellegrino has lost to Nate Diaz, Joe Stevenson and Drew Fickett and beaten....who?... Rob Emerson? Thiago Tavares?... Junior Assuncao? Clearly he's not top notch. "The Dentist" Josh Neer has beaten a bunch of meatheads (Joe Stevenson and Melvin Guillard the possible exceptions) and lost to Nick AND Nate Diaz, Josh Burkman, Mark Miller, Drew Fickett and Spencer Fisher. Why is this fight on the main card?

My money's on: Neer. It's a toss up. Neer is bigger and more experienced, so there you go.

UNDERCARD

Shane Nelson Vs. Aaron Riley (lightweight) - Neither one has an impressive pedigree. Riley is far more experienced, but has lost to every significant fighter he's faced. This is a rematch set thanks to a controversial stoppage at UFC 96. I didn't see it, but I heard it was bad. Still, I'll take Nelson in the rematch, too.

Tamdan McCrory Vs. John Howard (welterweight) - I like this McCrory kid. If he can avoid those bloody armbars, it would seem he'd have a very promising career. I'll pick McCrory to submit Howard.

Thales Leites Vs. Alessio Sakara (middleweight) - Who would have thought a few months ago that we'd be seeing this fight buried in the undercard? These are two "name" guys who have fallen by the wayside. Leites looked promising at first, but put in such a stinker in his title fight against Anderson Silva that the UFC will probably toss him out on his ass if he lays another egg on Saturday. "Legionarius" was given much fanfare by the UFC commentators when he showed up, but he's been way way way less than impressive. He beat perennial punching bag Elvis Sinosic, but then dropped four of his next six UFC fights, including a devastating knockout by upstart Houton Alexander. How is this guy still in the UFC?! He should be shown the door if he loses Saturday. Oh, I guess my money's on Leites.

Matthew Riddle Vs. Dan Cramer (welterweight) - This ought to be fun. I like Riddle, so I'll pick him.

George Sotiropoulos Vs. George Roop (lightweight) - Some more TUF guys. I like Sotiropoulos, so I guess I'll pick him. He does seem to have the more impressive pedigree.

Jesse Lennox Vs. Danillo Villefort (welterweight) - I don't know these guys at all, so this is blind. Villefort is slightly bigger with Lennox having the slightly better record. He also has a significant number of submissions, so I'll take Lennox.

MMA Expo Toronto 2009

I checked out the MMA Expo at the International Centre on Sunday. I figured I’d probably spend a couple of hours in there – I ended up spending four.

It was a decent event, though it wasn’t exactly huge. The highlight, of course, was meeting some of MMA’s big stars in person, getting an autograph and a photo. It was nice to see guys making the effort to meet the fans and spread some love.

While I was there, I met:

Denis Kang
Jason MacDonald
Matt Hamill
James Irvin
Sean Sherk
Patrick Cote
Shonie Carter
Sam Stout
Arianny Celeste

Some were more personable than others (props to Shonie, Denis and Jason especially) but everyone was accommodating. I got them to sign my “Fighter” book – which now features a decent number of fighters’ autographs thanks to previous meetings with GSP, BJ Penn and Dana White.

Thiago Silva was supposed to be there, too, but I saw no sign of him (too bad because he’s featured in the book). Ditto Bill Mahood, Chris Horodecki, Carlos Newton and Frank Trigg.

Other than the celebs, there were vendors of all sorts, pushing things like supplements, gym memberships, equipment, apparel, vibrating “exercise” machines and videos.

There was also a jiu jitsu tourney taking place which was interesting to watch. Watching it live, you could really appreciate the difference between tournaments that use a gi compared to non-gi MMA.

Let’s hope MMA gets sanctioned in Ontario soon so that next year’s event can include some actual MMA action.