UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann Results

Pretty darn good event last night. Let's see how I did.

Diego Sanchez def. Martin Kampmann (unanimous)
Crazy. Kampmann kinda gave this one away because he let doubt creep into the minds of the judges. he should have run away with this fight. He massacred Sanchez in the first round, but let up a bit in the second and third. Even though he probably won the stand-up in those rounds in terms of accuracy, Sanchez was more ferocious, coming forward, throwing flurries and getting the odd takedown after numerous stuffs. This planted the seed in the judges' minds that maybe Sanchez deserved rounds two and three - hende the decision. If you looked at the fighters' faces after the fight you would have thought the judges were crazy. Sanchez was beaten to a pulp, much like he was by BJ Penn. But somehow he got the decision. I was on the fence as to whether he won those rounds, but I think this lends credence to the idea that there must be a score instituted for who wins the fight overall. Kampmann lost the fight because of the ten point must system. He deserved the win, and he should have won. This is a massive setback for him because Sanchez really isn't going anywhere in this division. Sanchez looked small and pudgy. He should be at lightweight. (0-1)

Mark Munoz def. CB Dollaway (TKO 1)

Some people thought this might have been stopped early, but Dolloway was clearly on dream street. Quick but good stoppage. Once again, Dolloway loks less than stellar. (1-1)

Chris Weidman def. Alessio Sakara (unanimous)
Another fight more lost than won. Sakara should have won this easily, but he let Weidman get on top and just smother him. Sakara was clearly the better fighter on the feet, but he let this one slip away. But I picked it! (2-1)

Brian Bowles def. Damacio Page (KO 1)

Page was winning this fight on the feet until Bowles caught him, put him down and then grabbed his neck. (3-1)

Danny Castillo def. Joe Stevenson (unanimous)

Seriously... Joe Daddy has to go, daddy. (3-2)

Cyrille Diabate def. Steve Cantwell (unanimous)
This one was never much in doubt. Cantwell couldn't get inside and take the big guy down or get a decent shot in. Diabate coasted to victory. Both of these guys looked awful. (4-2)

Shane Roller def. Thiago Tavares (KO 2)

See if this sounds familiar: Tavares was winning this fight on the feet until Roller caught him. Story of the night. This one was spectacular, though, as Roller knocked Tavares falt off his feet a la Franklin-Quarry. (5-2)

Takeya Mizugaki def. Reuben Duran (split)

Picking the underdog almost paid off again...except it didn't. Oh well. Didn't see it. (5-3)

Dongi Yang def.Rob Kimmons (TKO 2)

This time it did pay off. Yang demonstrated his power. Didn't see it. (6-3)

Rousimar Palhares def. Dave Branch (sub 2)

A kneebar win? Wish I'd seen it. Palhares is SICK on the ground. (7-3)

Igor Pokrajac def. Todd Brown (TKO 1)

Brown couldn't come out for the second round after getting his bell rung good. Not sure Pokrajac is the real deal, but he looked decent. (8-3)

Huh. 8-3 and a controversial decision in the main event. 9-2 is pretty amazing, I'd say.

UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann Picks

This is actually a pretty decent card for a free event. Some tough choices. Let's have a look...

Diego Sanchez vs Martin Kampmann (welterweight)

There's a lot on the line in the match-up. Two guys who have been highly touted in the past but who are not on the way up and can't seem to win the big fights to get into title contendership. Sure, Sanchez fought for the title, but that was at lightweight where he was a monster. He got beaten up badly by BJ Penn, and yet he has decided to return to welterweight - a bad decision if you ask me. Earlier, he had lost big welterweight fights to Josh Koshcheck (did he even show up?) and Jon Fitch (split decision), and lost his return to welterweight against John Hathaway (unanimous decision). If he were a lightweight, he'd be a top 5 guy. At welterweight, he probably isn't top ten. That could change if he can upset Kampmann who is another dangerous guy who is snake-bitten when it comes to big fights. He lost spectacularly to Paul Daley, a win that earned Daley a #1 contenders bought against Josh Koshcheck. Then, after rebounding with a pair of victories, he lost a controversial split decision to Jake Shields - a win that earned Shields a title shot. If Kampmann loses, it'll be another big step backwards when he seems to be on the cusp of a title fight. If Sanchez loses, I think he'd have to consider a return to lightweight, especially now that Penn is not the champ and seems to be on the verge of retirement. Sanchez's best hopes of a title are at lightweight. In this fight, I'm picking Kampmann.

CB Dollaway vs Mark Munoz (middleweight)

Munoz is kind of a small middleweight - at least in stature. He has size around his waist. He also has heavy hands. Dollaway, on the other hand, is a talented guy with a brain problem - he just does not have the right attitude and does not fight smart, it seems. He is good at submissions, though, and can finish guys off quick. Munoz is a BJJ guy, though, so Dollaway won't be able to take advantage of his opponent's ignorance in this department. Though their records are similar, Munoz has faced tougher opposition. I could see Munoz getting a TKO, or Dollaway getting a decision. Will it go the distance? Let's hope not. I'll pick Munoz.

Alessio Sakara vs Chris Weidman (middleweight)

Weidman comes in as an injury replacement. He is only 4-0 so this is a BIG step up. Sakara is ok, but not great. He seems to have problems with power punchers (with the exception of James Irvin) and Weidman seems to fit the bill. Sakara has fought some tough opposition, but no one in the top ten. What do you say we go for the massive upset in this one and pick Weidman?

Brian Bowles vs Damacio Page (bantamweight)

Don't know much about these WEC guys, other than Bowles was champion at one point. Strangely, this is a rematch of a fight Bowles won easily in the first round. So why fight again? Dunno. Doesn't seem as though Page has earned it. I'm picking Bowles.

Joe Stevenson vs Danny Castillo (lightweight)

How is it that Joe Daddy still has a job with the UFC? Only 3 wins in his last 8 fights and two straight losses. Surely this is yet another "last chance". It might work out for him, though, as he fights a former WEC guy who will no doubt be a bit intimidated by the big show (though this is only a Fight Night Live). Styles match up well, too, as both are wrestlers who like to stand and fight. Castillo seems to have better KO power, but Stevenson is hard to take out. I like Stevenson in this one.

Steve Cantwell vs Cyrille Diabate (light heavyweight)

This could be fun. Diabate is a tall guy who can finish guys off fast, but he seems to lack aggressiveness - he relies on his opponents making a mistake. He looked great in his debut, awful in his sophomore fight. I'm gonna pick Diabate in this one and hope he picks up his game.

Thiago Tavares vs Shane Roller (lightweight)

Another UFC versus WEC match-up. Roller has a rep, but this is still a step up. Tavares' three losses were all Fight of the Night and he has faced tougher competition. Roller has faced the best of the WEC with mixed success. Roller is very dangerous, though, and can finish guys fast. Both like submissions, but Roller is a wrestler while Tavares is a BJJ guy. That should mean Roller will decide where this fight takes place. On the feet, Roller seems more dangerous. Dunno if it's an upset, but I'll pick Roller.

Takeya Mizugaki vs Reuben Duran (bantamweight)

Who? Hm... Ok, Mizugaki has WEC experience, but with mixed results. Duran doesn't even have a Wikipedia page. When in doubt, go with the known guy. But... Mizugaki goes to decision way too often. Duran is a finisher. I'll pick Duran. Underdog again!

Rob Kimmons vs Dongi Yang (middleweight)

Well, I've heard of Kimmons... He has a decent record but zero significant wins. Yang has decent power, it seems, but lost to Chris Camozzi in his UFC debut. Not good. Still, in the night of upsets, I'll pick Yang.

Rousimar Palhares vs Dave Branch (middleweight)

Palhares gets no respect. This guy is INSANELY dangerous on the ground. Branch is a bigger guy and is also a BJJ black belt. But is he on the same level as Palhares? I doubt it. Look for Branch to keep it standing and hope for a decision. He should have a significant reach advantage. Still, I'll pick Palhares.

Igor Pokrajac vs Todd Brown (light heavyweight)

Pokrajac has one win in 4 UFC fights yet still has a job. Brown is 15-2 but no significant fights except a loss in his UFC debut. Who to pick....? Toss up. I'll go with the fitter looking Pokrajac.

Ok, maybe it isn't such a great card. Let's hope it surprises us!

UFC 121 Thoughts

Was pretty busy, so didn't have time to post my picks. Oops. I know you're all terribly disappointed.

I can give you my quick two cents, though.

Cain Velasquez def. Brock Lesnar (TKO 1)
This fight really exposed Lesnar's chin. He can throw a mean right hand, but he also cowers and covers up at the first sign of strong resistance. Not good. Lesnar need sot get punched in the face a few times by training partners to get over this impulse. His weaknesses seem to be psychological. you need to keep your wits about you when your opponent is standing over you dropping bombs. This is a tough task and requires significant mental discipline. So Velasquez is the new champ. Will it last? I dunno. He's good, but considering how much trouble he had against Cheick Kongo, you'll forgive me if I don't bestow godhood upon him. I could see him getting taken out by a wise veteran like Randy Couture or Frank Mir. Even Shane Carwin has to be foaming at the mouth. What's next for Lesnar? Well, some rest for one. But who else can this guy fight? I mean he's already beaten Couture, Carwin, Mir and Herring, so you can't really put him up against also-rans like Cro Cop or Barry or Kongo... So does Lesnar just keep getting title fights? He'll get a tune-up and, if he wins that, surely he'll get a rematch. But frankly he needs experience. Seven fights ain't much.

Jake Shields def. Martin Kampmann (split)
I wasn't surprised by the decision (unlike others) but I was not impressed by Shields. Does this fight earn him a title fight? Hell no. At least, not in my opinion. Dana White seems to think otherwise. Shields hasn't beaten anyone of significance in the UFC (Kampmann is tough, but not THAT tough) and his Strikeforce/EliteXC days can kiss my ass. How do these welterweights keep getting title fights without having to fight other top contenders? Shields should have to beat Fitch or Koscheck or Hardy or Alves or Hughes or SOMEONE who has fought for the title in the last five years before getting GSP. This is goofy.

Diego Sanchez def. Paulo Thiago (unanimous)
Would the real Diego Sanchez PLEASE stand up? Seriously. Diego has been LOST his last few fights, even if he got a title shot against Penn, but he shows up like a mofo against the very tough Thiago. Where has this guy been? Let's hope he keeps it up. He should still drop to lightweight in my opinion, though.

Matt Hamill def. Tito Ortiz (unanimous)
How long before the UFC cuts Ortiz? Who knows. He is a shadow of his former self, that's for sure. He needs a good camp. He needs someone to show him what he's doing wrong. His style is antiquated and isn't going to get him anywhere. He hasn't won a fight in four years and his two wins prior to that were over the geriatric Ken Shamrock. The UFC keeps Ortiz but cuts the very game Patrick Cote who is coming off an injury layoff and lost to a lay and prayer? Doesn't seem to make much sense... Hamill didn't look THAT good.

Brendan Schaub def. Gabriel Gonzaga (unanimous)
Pretty dull fight. Not a lot of leather thrown and Gonzaga didn't try hard enough to get this to the ground. not sure what his gameplan was.

Court McGee def. Ryan Jensen (sub 2)
McGee looked alright. Needs a lot more seasoning before he moves up the ladder.

Tom Lawlor def. Patrick Cote (unanimous)
Boring as hell. Cote couldn't get past Lawlor's ground game and the ref didn't stand them up enough to save him. Cote gets cut afterwards despite being two fights removed from a title fight (in which he was doing alright against Anderson Silva) and getting pile driven by Alan Belcher. Lawlor lays and prays his way to victory. Let's hope Cote can get his act together and come back.

Daniel Roberts def. Mike Guymon (sub 1)
Roberts looked good. Guymon looked lost.

Sam Stout def. Paul Taylor (split)
Didn't see it. I imagine it was a decent boxing match.

Chris Camozzi def. Dongi Yang (split)
Didn't see it.

Jon Madsen def. Gilbert Yvel (KO 1)
Yvel is in the UFC...why? He sucks. Seriously.

UFC 114 Picks

Weird card. This is one of those cards that doesn't look like much on the surface, but I'm betting will actually surprise some folks and provide decent entertainment.

Quinton Rampage Jackson vs Rashad Evans (light heavyweight)
This is the long-awaited fight stemming from The Ultimate Fighter season where these two acted as coaches. The fight was delayed 'cause Jackson took a role in the A-Team movie, much to the disgust and chagrin of the UFC who had gone to the trouble of booking the event in Memphis, Jackson's hometown. Who will win the fight? Hard to say. Both guys have power, Rashad has wrestling skills and speed, so he should get the nod. But Jackson is one of those guys who can end the night with one quick punch as we saw against Wanderlei and others. Jackson has been off for a long time, though, so there's no telling what kind fo shape he'll be in. I can see this fight being dull as hell if Evans can take Jackson down and stay on top. I could also see this fight ending with a highlight-reel knockout. There's a lot on the line here, as the winner is expected to get the first shot at champion Rua. For that reason, I bet Rashad plays it smart, keeps his distance, then takes Jackson down with a quick shot. Jackson, as we saw against Griffin, has zero ability to get off his back. Rashad will do that for 15 minutes and get the nod. Boring, but effective. I'm picking Evans.

Michael Bisping vs Dan Miller (middleweight)
Michael Bisping is the favourite, having had bigger fights and having been a star on TUF. Don't count Miller out, though. Sure, he's coming off two losses, but they were to Demian Maia and Chael Sonnen who are title contenders. Bisping isn't quite in that class, despite what he might think. Before that, Miller had reeled off three straight wins to kick off his UFC career, two by first round submission. We haven't seen Bisping on his back much (at least not conscious) so it's hard to say how he'd fare if Miller got him down. I'm going with the upset. I bet Miller, who can push the pace just like Bisping, gets Bisping down and submits him or earns the decision. I'll take Miller.

Todd Duffee vs Mike Russow (heavyweight)
Duffee holds the UFC record for fastest knockout (7 seconds) and it may not have been a fluke. He has a 15-second win and a 16-second win. Wow. This guy has crazy power. Russow, though, has a great record himself and tends to submit guys in the first round. So the question may be whether Russow can get Duffee on the ground. I'm gonna say...yes. Again, I'm gonna pick the dog and go with Russow by submission. I bet experience pays off in this one.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs Jason Brilz (light heavyweight)
This one is a bit of a disappointment, of course, as it was supposed to be Nogueira versus Forrest Griffin. Nogueira is one of the UFC's new darlings and he hasn't disappointed yet. He has a terrific record (18-3) including wins over Dan Henderson, Luiz Cane, Vladimir Matyushenko, and two over Strikeforce Heavyweight champ Alistair Overeem. Brilz, on the other hand, is no pushover. He's at 18-2, though his fights have been mostly agianst mid-carders. This could be a great fight. If Brilz wins, it'd be a huge launching pad for him. But I don't see it happeneing. I'm picking Nogueira.

Diego Sanchez vs John Hathaway (welterweight)
I have no idea why Diego is back at welterweight. Lightweight seemed perfect for him and he was clearly on the rise there. A loss to BJ Penn is no tragedy and he might have been right back in the mix if the UFC staged a Sanchez-Florian rematch. Inexplicably, he has jumped back up to welterweight where he is a small fish in a very big pond, ruled by the biggest shark in the aquarium, GSP. Honestly, WTF? Diego seems to have lost a bit of steam recently, going to decision far too often after previously overwhleming his opponents. Hathaway has a perfect record, but hasn't fought anyone anywhere near Diego's status. This is a huge fight for him. If he wins, he'll be in title contention quick. If Diego wins, I'm not sure the same holds true (unless the UFC is desperate for new opponents for GSP). If Diego loses...well...zoinks, yo. I'm betting Diego finds a way to win this one, if only by experience.

Amir Sadollah vs Dong Hyun Kim (welterweight)
Amir was the surprising winner of TUF 7 and has gone 2-1 since with some impressive cardio work. Kim is "The Stun Gun" and although he was impressive in his debut, has been less than spectacular since. His loss to Karo Parisyan was overtruned after Karo tested positive for banned painkillers, so he maintains his undefeated record (12-0-1 [1]). Still, I'm gonna bet Kim finds a way to overwhelm Sadollah and finish him before it reaches a decision. I'm picking Kim.

Efrain Escudero vs Dan Lauzon (lightweight)
Another TUF winner in Escudero. He has looked pretty good, but is coming off a loss. Lauzon is the brother of TUF competitor Joe Lauzon, but hasn't impressed me all tnat much, despite his record. Both of these fighters are known for their submission skills and ending fights early. This could be the fight of the night. I'll pick Escudero.

Melvin Guillard vs Waylon Rowe (lightweight)
Guillard was a rising star once upon a time. Rowe doesn't even have a Wikipedia page. That gives you some idea how much Guillard's stock has fallen. Both of these guys are known for their KO power. This could be a barnburner and over quick. Since Guillard doesn't have to worry about submissions, he may actually win this one (and not undeservedly, like he did against Ronnys Torres). I'll pick Guillard.

Luiz Cane vs Cyrille Diabate (light heavyweight)
Cane will be looking to rebound form his loss to Little Nog. I'd never heard of Diabate, but he has a good record and has fought some big names (and lost, mind you). Still, I'm gonna pick Cane.

Aaron Riley vs Joe Brammer (lightweight)
Riley is one of those fighters who is tough to peg. He looks good once, then crap the next. Brammer has a nice record to start his career but has lost to the only name he's faced. I'm gonna pick Riley on experience.

Jesse Forbes vs Ryan Jensen (middleweight?)
A lot was expected from Forbes as he competed in TUF 3, but he hasn't lived up to the hype (certainly not his own!). He's been fighting in the smaller circuits for a while, ammassing a respectable record (13-4). Jensen has had a rough go recently, going 3-5 after being 11-1. But he was thrown to the wolves in his early UFC days, losing to Demian Maia and Thales Leites. I'm not sure how he has managed to stick around this second time around, going 1-2 in his last three UFC fights. This is one of those fights where the winner earns a reprieve and the loser goes home, I bet. Neither of these guys is used to going the distance, so this could be another quick one. I'll pick...Jensen.

Who you got?

UFC 107 Results - Penn survives the Nightmare

Alright, kiddies, let's see how it all went down:

BJ Penn def Diego Sanchez (TKO 5) - If you had told me that BJ would TKO Sanchez in round 5 I would have told you you were nuts. This seemed to be the least likely scenario based on BJ's gas tank and Diego's determination. But since it was a DOCTOR's stoppage, I understand. That was a crazy gash on Diego's forehead. I'm glad BJ was winning handily at the time or it might have been tragic. I didn't see the event, so I can't comment on how Diego was doing, but I understand BJ had things well in hand at that point. In the end, perhaps the fact that it was Diego's first fve rounder caught up to him a little, but a three rounder would have had the same result - BJ is still the champ. It appears that BJ was most impressive on Saturday. I'm somewhat surprised he was as effective as he was, even in rounds four and five. Good for him. As for Diego, this is his first loss in a while and he still has an incredible record and great potential, so we may see him back in the title mix soon. (0-1)

Frank Mir def Cheick Kongo (sub 1) - This appears to have been a non-fight. Was MIr that impressive or did Kongo suck that badly? I've never been all that impressed by Kongo, and have long felt he was overrated by the UFC, but what are you going to do with a depleted heavyweight division? Mir looked huge and is clearly hoping for Mir-Lesnar 3. He may never get it, based on health reports from the Lesnar camp, but he may get his shot at an interim title in the coming months. Look for him to take on the winner of Carwin-Velasquez. (1-1)

Jon Fitch def Mike Pierce (unanimous) - No big surprise, other than perhaps the fact that it went the distance. This is the problem with many of Fitch's recent fights. He needs to finish more. This doesn't appear to be the kind of fight that puts him back in title contention. (2-1)

Kenny Florian def Clay Guida - Wish I had seen this. Looks like the gash that Florian opened up on the side of Guida's head really made the difference. Guida was bleeding like a stuck pig. I'm shocked that Guida was stopped so easily. (2-2)

Stefan Struve def Paul Buentello (majority) - Looks like this was a close fight - perhaps closer than it ought to have been given that Struve apparently put it in cruise control late in the fight. I think the surprising thing was that Struve stood and banged it out with Buentello. I'm glad Struve won (a rare majority decision thanks to one 28-28 score). He seems to be a good kid. I doubt he'll go too far with his lankiness, but he makes for a fun fight to watch. (3-2)

Alan Belcher def Wilson Gouveia (TKO 1) - A bit of a surprising result (the quickness of it). Not sure where this leaves Gouveia. (4-2)

Matt Wiman def Shane Nelson (unanimous) - I hope both fighters impressed, but considering it went to decision... (5-2)

Johny Hendricks def Ricardo Funch (unanimous) - Another decision. Hendricks is still undefeated, so I wonder if he'll go up in competition. Watch out for this guy. (6-2)

Rousimar Palhares def Lucio Linhares (sub 2) - Palhares is a freak. If he can get by against bigger opponents watch out. He's dangerous. I'd like to see this one, just to see how he pulled off the heel hook. (7-2)

DeMarques Johnson def Edgar Garcia (sub 1) - Johnson pulled it off. Garcia dropped his second straight UFC fight, the only two blemishes on his record. Losing in the first round by submission never looks good. Wonder if we'll see this kid again. (7-3)

TJ Grant def Kevin Burns (TKO 1) - Nice to see the Canadian win. First round TKO makes it pretty impressive. Knockout of the Night? Doubly impressive. This ought to get him on another UFC card soon. (8-3)

Whoa: 8-3! That's pretty impressive, too! And had I picked the favourites in KenFLo and BJ I would have been almost perfect. Now we have a bit of a layoff (3 weeks is a layoff?!) before UFC 108 pits Rashad Evans against Thiago Silva on an otherwise less than impressive card.

Happy holidays.

UFC 107 Predictions

Another week, another UFC event - this time on PPV - and yet again, I'm gonna miss it. This time, even TiVo won't save me. F*ck!

It's shaping up to be a good one, too. And with the health of most elite UFC fighters these days being fragile at best, it may be the best collection of fights we'll see for a while.

Ok, my picks:

BJ Penn vs Diego Sanchez

Am I the only one who gives Sanchez even odds in this fight? Sanchez ought to be the bigger, stronger fighter and he has a wide range of skills, much like Penn. He's no rookie, either, and aside from a bad health stretch a while back, his record is pretty much spotless. He could have easily been undefeated at this point. Yet people seem to think he's a ridiculous underdog in this fight. Ridiculous? Maybe. Underdog? Not by much. If this fight goes into the third round and beyond, Sanchez's odds of winning increase exponentially. Sanchez doesn't seem to tire and Penn still has an anemic gas tank as we saw with GSP. I think Penn is the smarter fighter and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he gets a decision (I can't see him finishing Sanchez), but I'm gonna go balls out and pick Sanchez to pull off the "upset" and become the new lightweight champ.

Frank Mir vs Cheick Kongo

Kongo could lay and pray all night and try to blast Mir like Lesnar did, but I don't see it. I think Kongo will try to stand all night while Mir will be desperate to get this fight to the ground. If it does go to the mat, look for Mir to secure a submission. Otherwise, this could turn out to be yet another boring Kongo dance. I'm pulling for Mir.

Jon Fitch vs Mike Pierce

Pierce seems ok, but I don't think too many fighters are in Fitch's class. I think this fight will get Fitch back into contention and possibly set up a Fitch-Koschceck #1 contender's fight to face the GSP-Hardy winner.

Kenny Florian vs Clay Guida

A potential fight of the night battle between two guys who like to go and try to finish fights. Guida is a freak of nature with his cardio, so Florian will have his hands full. It's almost impossible to knock Guida out, so Florian will likely try to work the submissions, likely from the bottom as Guida uses his wrestling skills. I don't like Florian's odds in this one. I could see Guida getting the decision. Sorry, KenFlo.

Paul Buentello vs Stefan Struve

Buentello returns to the UFC. Can't say I was a fan of his the first time around. He was famously knocked out by Andrei Arlovski. Struve will have his usual massive height and reach advantage, so it'll be interesting to see if Buentello can get inside and use his power - otherwise, he's screwed. I could see Struve wearing Buentello out, and securing a submission in the third round. I'll pick him.

Alan Belcher vs Wilson Gouveia - Two guys who tend not to impress but somehow manage to get wins when you least expect them. Not sure who to pick here. Belcher works hard, at least, whereas Gouveia seems to fluke out knockouts. I'll pick...Belcher?

Matt Wiman vs Shane Nelson - I'm a fan of Wiman's so I'd like to see him get back on the winning track. Three losses in a row could be the end of him. I'll pick Wiman.

Johny Hendricks vs Ricardo Funch - Hendricks is good and Funch is a nobody who has fought no one of consequence. I'll take the experienced guy.

Rousimar Palhares vs Lucio Linhares - Palhares is awesome but needs to drop a weight class. He's too small at middleweight. He'll be six inches shorter than his opponent. Still, I'll pick him for fun.

DeMarques Johnson vs Edgar Garcia - Johnson didn't exactly overwhelm me with his talent on TUF, so I'll go with the darkhorse Garcia who will have something to prove after dropping his UFC debut (his only MMA loss).

Kevin Burns vs TJ Grant - Can't go against the Canadian in a toss up fight. I'll pick Grant.

I look forward to reading the results... *sigh*

TUF 9 Finale - Results

Let’s see:

Diego Sanchez def. Clay Guida (split decision)
James Wilks def. DaMarques Johnson (rear naked choke - 1)
Chris Lytle def. Kevin Burns (unanimous decision)
Ross Pearson def. Andre Winner (unanimous decision)
Joe Stevenson def. Nate Diaz (unanimous decision)
Melvin Guillard def. Gleison Tibau (split decision)
Brad Blackburn def. Edgar Garcia (split decision)
Tomasz Drwal def. Mike Ciesnolevicz (TKO – 1)
Nick Osipczak def. Frank Lester (rear naked choke - 1)
Jason Dent def. Cameron Dollar (anaconda choke – 1)

I thought Sanchez was going to get robbed in the decision based on previous judges’ scoring. While Sanchez was clearly delivering the majority of the punishment, Guida was on top for a good chunk of the decisive third round and usually top position is equated with winning. I assume, of course, that it was the third round that was decisive since Guida was on top for most of the second – but Sanchez delivered some brutal elbows in that round, so who knows which one swayed the third judge. Further clouding the issue is the fact that the UFC would benefit more from a Sanchez win as he is the more colourful character and would likely sell more tickets in a title fight than Guida. I’m not convinced judges aren’t influenced by this sort of thing. We can now look forward to a Sanchez vs Penn/Florian fight for the 155 belt in 4 months or so. It ought to be interesting either way, but, while I like Florian, I don’t think there’s much doubt a Sanchez-Penn match-up would be more desirable to the UFC and fans. After all, Sanchez humbled Florian once already (though in a different weight class) and it’s always more interesting to see an established champ defend the belt than first timers (see the light heavyweight division).

I also correctly predicted Wilks would beat Johnson. Wilks struck early, putting Johnson on the defensive and the American couldn’t get out of the round to gather himself. Despite a few decent exchanges, Wilks was clearly in control and got the much-deserved win. It’ll be interesting to see how he does going forward. I was impressed with Wilks’ skills.

I went 3-for-3 in the top portion of the card when Lytle got the nod over a game Kevin Burns. Lytle threw bombs from the opening seconds and didn’t let up until the horn sounded. I was really impressed with Lytle’s cardio, which allowed him to give it all for 15 minutes and was the difference in the fight; Burns was gassed and was in retreat mode for much of the third round. Lytle isn’t champ material, but he’s one of those guys who acts as a gatekeeper to the upper ranks – if you can beat him, you deserve top-flight fights. Burns just isn’t there yet.

I really wanted Ross Pearson to win, but I thought Andre Winner was going to squeeze out a decision. I thought these two would stand and trade shots, with Winner having the jab advantage. I didn’t expect that these guys would hug for 15 minutes with no intervention by the ref (have I mentioned how much most refs suck? Herb Dean is by far the worst with Mazzagatti second). For a TUF “title fight” this was a dud. The two competitors negated each other’s offence and the result was a fight too close to call; not enough happened to distinguish the two competitors. I thought it fair that the first two rounds would be split and the third would decide the outcome since no one seemed to deserve being up 2-0. That said, I thought Winner was getting the best of Pearson in the first two and might have gotten the nod as the result. But Pearson was a little more active in the third and, thanks to the split rounds, got the decision. I really wasn’t impressed, but am looking forward to seeing more of Pearson in the future to see what he really has to offer.

What was Nate Diaz thinking? His loss to Joe Stevenson was due to one thing – strategy. Diaz is the more talented fighter, but he allowed Stevenson to take him down and stay on top – which was enough to earn the victory. Stevenson really didn’t do much, but Diaz was happy to stay on his back and attempt submissions. What he should have done was stay on his feet as much as possible and pick Stevenson apart a la BJ Penn. Instead, he pulled guard, made no real attempt to get back up and tried…what? Kimoras? Come on… Diaz has pulled this kind of stupidity before and obviously needs new coaching ‘cause his current approach sucks. This is a serious speed bump for him. Both of these guys have careers going nowhere fast.

In the undercard, I went 1-4, but I blame part of that on bad info from the UFC website. Tomasz Drwal and Mike Ciesnolevicz were fighting at light heavyweight which explains the discrepancy in their stats. Ciesnolevicz failed to make weight, though, and the big cut he did make probably factored in his loss. I’d have to see the other fights to comment on them. I’d like to see the Guillard-Tibau fight, for one.

So 3-2 on the main card, 1-4 on the undercard, 4-4 with fighters I knew, 4-6 overall.

Let the hype and build-up to UFC 100 begin!

TUF 9 Finale - Predictions

The Ultimate Fighter 9 finale is Saturday night, so here are my picks:

MAIN CARD

Diego Sanchez vs Clay Guida (155)

I used to be a pretty big fan of Sanchez’s, but he’s gotten crazier and crazier it seems and his style is suffering. He used to be relentless and inventive in his attacks, but lately he seems to have become more one-dimensional, looking to knock people out with boxing. Diego’s strength is his wrestling/ground game and he should return to it going forward. That said, he could take advantage of his size to pick Guida apart.

My money’s on: Sanchez. I see this one going to decision with Sanchez squeaking out a victory on points based on his jab.

DaMarques Johnson Vs. James Wilks (170)

These guys are pretty evenly matched. Both are good strikers without having the best chins. This could end in a surprising knockout at any moment.

My money’s on: Wilks. I can see Wilks taking Johnson down and earning the win. It ought to be close, though.

Chris Lytle Vs. Kevin Burns (170)

I like both of these guys, but Lytle’s a warrior and ought to be able to use his experience to beat Burns.

My money’s on: Lytle.

Ross Pearson Vs. Andre Winner (155)

I quite like Pearson’s energy and style, but Winner’s got a size advantage. When in doubt, go with the taller guy.

My money’s on: Winner. Go figure. (If Pearson wins, am I still right?)

Joe Stevenson Vs. Nate Diaz (155)

Stevenson may be the most overrated fighter in the UFC. He’s pulled off some nice submissions against foolish opponents, but Diaz is no fool and definitely has the edge in the submission department. Look for Stevenson to try to take Diaz down (after Diaz outboxes him) and, if he does, for Diaz to find the submission.

My money’s on: Diaz – on the ground or on the feet. Diaz ought to fly to the upper echelon after this fight.

UNDERCARD

Melvin Guillard Vs. Gleison Tibau (155)

This one all depends on Guillard. If he’s smart, he could knock Tibau out. If he’s foolish, he’ll get submitted in a heartbeat. We’ve seen this before.

My money’s on: Tibau. I just think Guillard will find a way to screw this up and he’s been off for quite a while.

Brad Blackburn Vs. Edgar Garcia (170) – I’ll take undefeated Garcia.

Mike Ciesnolevicz Vs. Tomasz Drwal (heavyweight) – Why is 205lb Drwal fighting a heavyweight? I’ll take the bigger guy: Ciesnolevicz.

Nick Osipczak Vs. Frank Lester (170) – Back to the TUF guys. Osipczak has the size/reach advantage, but he doesn’t have the chin to handle Lester if he connects. I’ll pick Lester in this one, probably by TKO.

Jason Dent Vs. Cameron Dollar (155) – I haven’t been impressed with Dollar and Dent has determination. I’ll pick Dent.