UFC Fight Night - Diaz vs Guillard

Fight Night tomorrow night. Guess I should get my picks in quick.

Ok, here goes:

Nate Diaz vs Melvin Guillard – Diaz has to be way smarter than in his previous fights. Fortunately, Guillard is a banger with not much of a game plan, so it seems he may have been hand-picked to get Diaz back on track. I’ll pick Diaz.

Gray Maynard vs Roger Huerta – Much has been made of the fact that Huerta is on his way out of the UFC and MMA to pursue acting, so it seems likely that his heart isn’t 100% in this. If that’s the case, this might be an easy night for Maynard who is on a roll and on his way to a title match someday. If he beats Huerta, look for him to get a shot sooner rather than later. I’ll pick Maynard.

Carlos Condit vs Jake Ellenberger – Jake who? Condit is a former WEC champ who is being groomed by the UFC, likely the reason he’s facing a no name on the main card of a Fight Night. Ellenberger has a respectable record and a fair number of KO/TKOs, but I don’t know him from Adam, so I’ll go with Condit.

Nate Quarry vs Tim Credeur - I like Quarry, so I’ll be pulling for him. Credeur seems like a decent guy but his fighting style isn’t exactly flawless. He ought to give Quarry headaches if it goes to the ground (being more well-rounded), but I sense Quarry will pick him apart and get the TKO. I’ll pick Quarry.

Steve Cantwell vs. Brian Stann – This is actually the third time these two have fought, having split previous stoppages. Stann has power, but Cantwell has submissions and since these two are familiar with each other, I don’t expect Cantwell to get caught again. I’ll pick Cantwell.

Chris Wilson vs. Mike Pyle – Tough call. Wilson beat Rory Markham while Pyle lost to him. Pyle has some tough fights, though, including a loss to Rampage Jackson and a win over Jon Fitch. He also trains with Forrest Griffin and Gray Maynard, so you know he has a work ethic. I’m leaning towards Wilson…

CB Dollaway vs. Jay Silva – Sweet lord, why is CB Dollaway still in the UFC? Someone must STILL think his TUF loss was a fluke. I hope he loses just so that he can go somewhere else to get some experience. He doesn’t look like much, but I’ll pull for Silva. I sense he’s a sacrificial lamb, though.

Sam Stout vs. Phillipe Nover – I like Nover, but bet against a Canadian? Not if I can help it. Besides, Stout has way more octagon experience than the TUF alumnus, so I’m figuring this could be a quick one. Stout.

Jeremy Stephens vs. Justin Buchholz – Stephens doesn’t really turn my crank. I’ve been underwhelmed by his performances, despite some highlight wins. Buchholz’s fights don’t last and he seems to have a more impressive win/loss profile than Stephens, with some submissions thrown in. I’ll pick Buchholz.

Brock Larson vs. Mike Pierce – Brock was supposed to make a run in the UFC. Pierce is being fed to the lions, I suspect. I’ll pick Larson.

Ryan Jensen vs. Steve Steinbeiss – Yikes. Neither of these guys has an impressive history. I’ll pick the more experienced Jensen.

UFC 101 Predictions

The UFC heads to Philadelphia on Friday for UFC 101.

Can it continue the heat and media buzz generated by UFC 100? I doubt it, but it's still shaping up to be a pretty good card.

The main event features BJ Penn vs Kenny Florian for the lightweight belt, but make no mistake: people are tuning in to see Forrest Griffin take on the seemingly unbeatable Anderson Silva in Griffin's light heavyweight class. I'm a big Griffin mark, but I do not like his chances in this one. At the end of the night, I'm either going to be elated or depressed. I guess we'll see.

Now for my predictions:

BJ Penn vs. Kenny Florian (lightweight)

This could be a really good fight. BJ likes to stand and bang when he can, but is known primarily for his jiu jitsu. Florian has good stand up and should enjoy a reach advantage. he's also well versed in jiu jitsu and could be on top if the fight hits the mat. If so, he's known for his finishing skills. Penn is still hurting from his destruction at the hands of GSP and could wilt if the fight isn't going his way. Penn is "the master" but he's also a big effing baby. Which Penn will shine through?

My money's on: Florian in a big upset. He doesn't look like much, but with the exception of Sherk's "lay and pray" strategy, Florian seems to be able to take what his opponents dish out and return the punishment in spades. I see a stand up battle at first, with Florian gradually taking the cardio advantage and punishing Penn on the mat.

Forrest Griffin vs. Anderson Silva (light heavyweight)

Silva is a beast at either middleweight or light heavyweight and has hands of stone. Griffin has terrific cardio and is always game, but has shown he can be knocked silly. Is it just a matter of time before he gets caught by the very accurate Brazilian and becomes another victim? Or will he come up with a strategy that will defy the odds and give him the biggest win of his life? (sorry, Rampage) I don't like Griffin's chances, but if you think I'm betting against him, you're nuts.

My money's on: Griffin. Not really, but I can't bet against him and don't want to "push". This would be a way bigger upset than the Florian victory. I give him a 10% shot at best.

Amir Sadollah Vs. Johny Hendricks (welterweight)

I like Sadollah and he has pulled off some surprising wins, but, really, he isn't THAT talented. CB Dollaway is way overrated. Hendricks has been plying his trade in WEC where the talent level isn't quite as high, but at least he has experience - and anyone who has a win by D'Arce Choke deserves respect.

My money's on: Hendricks. I like the look of this guy and think that after this win, the UFC will look to move him up the ladder.

Kendall Grove Vs. Ricardo Almeida (middleweight)

Grove was a guy I really wanted to watch after his TUF win, but he's been disappointing in his last few fights. He really got exposed by Jorge Rivera and Patrick Cote. Sure he has a win over former champ Evan Tanner, but Tanner was never that well rounded. Almeida, on the other hand, seems to be a guy who just doesn't deliver like he should. He's a talented guy, no doubt - he has a submission victory over Nate Marquardt - but he's never been that impressive (he has lost to Patrick Cote and Andrei Semenov).

My money's on: Almeida. If he doesn't beat Grove, send him packing.

Josh Neer Vs. Kurt Pellegrino (lightweight)

People seem to think highly of both of these fighters, but I haven't been that impressed. Pellegrino has lost to Nate Diaz, Joe Stevenson and Drew Fickett and beaten....who?... Rob Emerson? Thiago Tavares?... Junior Assuncao? Clearly he's not top notch. "The Dentist" Josh Neer has beaten a bunch of meatheads (Joe Stevenson and Melvin Guillard the possible exceptions) and lost to Nick AND Nate Diaz, Josh Burkman, Mark Miller, Drew Fickett and Spencer Fisher. Why is this fight on the main card?

My money's on: Neer. It's a toss up. Neer is bigger and more experienced, so there you go.

UNDERCARD

Shane Nelson Vs. Aaron Riley (lightweight) - Neither one has an impressive pedigree. Riley is far more experienced, but has lost to every significant fighter he's faced. This is a rematch set thanks to a controversial stoppage at UFC 96. I didn't see it, but I heard it was bad. Still, I'll take Nelson in the rematch, too.

Tamdan McCrory Vs. John Howard (welterweight) - I like this McCrory kid. If he can avoid those bloody armbars, it would seem he'd have a very promising career. I'll pick McCrory to submit Howard.

Thales Leites Vs. Alessio Sakara (middleweight) - Who would have thought a few months ago that we'd be seeing this fight buried in the undercard? These are two "name" guys who have fallen by the wayside. Leites looked promising at first, but put in such a stinker in his title fight against Anderson Silva that the UFC will probably toss him out on his ass if he lays another egg on Saturday. "Legionarius" was given much fanfare by the UFC commentators when he showed up, but he's been way way way less than impressive. He beat perennial punching bag Elvis Sinosic, but then dropped four of his next six UFC fights, including a devastating knockout by upstart Houton Alexander. How is this guy still in the UFC?! He should be shown the door if he loses Saturday. Oh, I guess my money's on Leites.

Matthew Riddle Vs. Dan Cramer (welterweight) - This ought to be fun. I like Riddle, so I'll pick him.

George Sotiropoulos Vs. George Roop (lightweight) - Some more TUF guys. I like Sotiropoulos, so I guess I'll pick him. He does seem to have the more impressive pedigree.

Jesse Lennox Vs. Danillo Villefort (welterweight) - I don't know these guys at all, so this is blind. Villefort is slightly bigger with Lennox having the slightly better record. He also has a significant number of submissions, so I'll take Lennox.