UFC 125 Results

Okay, okay - I've been totally slacking. It's been busy at my paying job, so the volunteer work has had to take a back seat.

Pay me for this and I'll be posting like clockwork.

...Please!

Let's catch up with UFC 125. I didn't see it because of New Year's Eve celebrations out of town, but I did catch some stuff.

Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard (draw)
Wish I had seen this. Sounds like Maynard was smoking Edgar in the first round but failed to finish. Apparently it was easily a 10-8 round, maybe an unheard of 10-7. Either way, Maynard did not get the job done and may have gotten a bit too comfortable with his lead or may have even tired himself out a little. The draw sets up a rematch - their third fight, actually - with Edgar yet to secure a win over Maynard. Now that Maynard has a five rounder under his belt, the rematch bodes well for him. He may be the favourite in the next fight.

Brian Stann def. Chris Leben (TKO 1)
Looks like Leben went toe-to-toe again and lost. No style points for the guy. He just sticks his chin and fists out. Stann capitalized and was able to KO the troubled fighter. Kudos to him. Leben was on the rise and this is a nice feather in Stann's cap. Will the Leben-Wanderlei fight still happen?

Thiago Silva def. Brandon Vera (unanimous)
Vera was gien his walking papers after this one. A massive fall for a guy who came in with such promise and was boasting he'd be the first guy to hold the heavyweight and light-heavyweight belts at the same time. Not so much. He hasn't improved and looks timid in the octagon. That won't keep you employed at the new and improved UFC. Silva keeps looking good. his only major setbacks have been against future champs.

Hyun Dong Kim def. Nate Diaz (unanimous)
The stats suggest Diaz did well, but Kim got the nod. Another example of Diaz just not fighting smart? He needs to avoid getting taken down. He's way too comfortable there, but it never looks good in the judge's eyes to be on your back.

Clay Guida def. Takanori Gomi (sub 2)
Not surprising that the ultra slow Gomi could not keep pace with hyperactive Guida. Gomi has not impressed me and yet this win has people buzzing about a title shot for Guida. THIS fight? Well, maybe if he defeats Anthony Pettis in his next fight...

Jeremy Stevens def. Marcus Davis (KO 3)
Poor Davis. Apparently, he was clearly winning the fight until he got caught in the third round. The loss got him cut from the UFC even though he has always been a good performer and this was his first fight at lightweight. Tough break. No doubt a direct result of Zuffa merging the WEC with the mothership and the resulting surplus of lightweights in the UFC.

Dustin Poirier def. Josh Grispi (unanimous)
Ok.

Brad Tavares def. Phil Baroni (TKO 1)
F***ing retire already! What was this guy doing back in the UFC?!

Diego Nunes def. Mike Brown (split)
Remember when Mike Brown was a somebody?

Daniel Roberts def. Greg Soto (sub 1)
Ok.

Jacob Volkmann def. Antonio McKee (split)
Can't bet on Volkmann.

UFC 117 Silva v Sonnen Picks

Gonna be busy the next couple of days. Better get my picks in quick:

Anderson Silva vs Chael Sonnen (middleweight)
Much as I would love to see Sonnen win (or, rather, Silva lose), I just don't see it happening. Can Sonnen really lay and pray for FIVE rounds against Silva? I don't see it. I'm picking Silva.

Jon Fitch vs Thiago Alves II (welterweight)
Again? Has Alves earned it? I dunno. Seems to me Fitch is the real #1 contender in the division but considering he got hammered by GSP, it's tough to match him up with anyone. I think the obvious match is Fitch vs Jake Shields for the #1 spot, but it seems the UFC doesn't wanna run the risk of missing out on the anticipated GSP-Shields fight down the road. I'm picking Fitch again.

Clay Guida vs Rafael Dos Anjos (lightweight)
Could be exciting. Guida is a cardio machine. If this guy is high on life alone, he should be studied by scientists. I can see Guida smothering this guy and not getting submitted. I'm picking Guida.

Matt Hughes vs Ricardo Almeida (welterweight)
This is the fight I want to see. Is Hughes done? Having him fight Gracie wasn't gonna answer that question. But if he beats a real fighter like Alemeida then you have to put him back in the title mix. I'm gonna go against the grain and pick Almeida by decision.

Roy Nelson vs Junior Dos Santos (heavyweight)
Another great fight. Dos Santos is awesome, but Nelson is the Blob. Can Dos Santos avoid getting smothered and can he KO the Burger King? I think this is a tough one for Dos Santos. Nelson will be hungrier than usual 'cause a win here puts him in the title hunt for sure. Dos Santos will have to box and hope for a decision. Strange as it seems, I'm picking Nelson.

Dustin Hazelett vs Rick Story (welterweight)
I like both of these fighters. Story is more well-rounded, though and might be able to take down Hazelett while avoiding submissions. I'm picking Story.

Phil Davis vs Rodney Wallace (light heavyweight)
I can't believe I might miss this event... This could be another good one. Fireworks. Davis is incredible. I can't go against him. I'm picking Davis.

Tim Boetsch vs Todd Brown (heavyweight)
I don't know anything about Brown and don't have tie to look him up. I'm picking the Canadian - Boetsch.

Johny Hendricks vs Charlie Brenneman (welterweight)
Crazy card. Hendricks in a dark match? The guy is great. Don't know much about Brenneman. I'm picking Hendricks.

Stefan Struve vs Christian Morecraft (heavyweight)
Struve is a giant, but Morecraft is a big guy, too. Morecraft has a good record with quick finishes. Struve has a history of either winning, or losing by KO early. Just what Morecraft wants. I don't live Struve's chances, but maybe the UFC lights will intimidate Morecraft. I'll pick Struve by submission.

Wicked card. Let's hope it lives up to the hype.

UFC 112 "Invincible" = Disgraceful

UFC 112 went off on Saturday in Abu Dhabi, a significant event in the history of the organization. By the end of the event, it would become a public relations nightmare. The storm may calm over the coming days and weeks, but at the time it was clear that everyone outside of Anderson Silva’s camp thought the main event was a disgrace to the sport. Dana White was fuming.

I sincerely hope the UFC finds a way to punish the middleweight champ for his antics in the octagon and the embarrassment he brought to the sport on this massive stage. If I were the UFC president, I’d consider stripping Silva of the belt and creating a Sonnen vs Silva, Belfort vs Marquardt tourney for the right to claim the title. Even if Silva won the belt back, he’d have to earn it and the 6 months removed from the title of middleweight champ would be a clear message that this sort of crap would not be tolerated.

Anderson Silva def. Demian Maia (unanimous) – In case you missed it, Silva spent five rounds dancing away from Maia, acting like an ass and landing just enough jabs to bloody his opponent and retain his belt. Silva’s taunting of Maia was almost violent as he urged the challenger to attack him. Message to Anderson Silva: counterstriking is YOUR game. Forrest Griffin and Chris Leben proved that attacking you with reckless abandon is just this side of suicidal. Why does Maia have to play your game? How about you attack him and finish him if he is so unworthy? Let’s get something straight: this was another example of terrible match-making. Sure, the UFC might have had this particular pairing thrust upon them because Sonnen, Belfort and Marquardt were all unable to fight on this date (and apparently Silva insisted on fighting in Abu Dhabi) but there was little doubt that this fight would be a repeat of the Silva-Leites fight that set the stage for Leites’ exit from the UFC. How is a jiu-jitsu practitioner with no real power in his fists supposed to handle Silva if Silva won’t go to the ground? It’s called a stalemate. Boring as hell. Maia, to his credit, did attack Silva more in the later rounds and landed a few good shots on the champ. Silva even said afterwards that he was surprised by Maia’s power. Was Silva so scared that he decided to just jump on his bike and backpedal for the last 5 minutes? Maybe. I’m glad Dana White did not try to sugar-coat the facts with some PR spinning. In fact, he showed his anger before the fight was even over, giving the belt to Silva’s manager and telling him to put the belt on “the champ”. I’m praying this is not the end of this story and that Silva will be sanctioned somehow. (1-0)

Frankie Edgar def. BJ Penn (unanimous) – This was the shocker of the night. Did anyone see this coming? Penn was apparently a 7-1 favourite. But did Edgar deserve the decision? I dunno… See, I always believed that to be the champ you had to beat the champ. If it was a close fight and it went to decision, odds were the champ would retain. I look at Arlovski-Silvia III for the best example of this. In my mind, Arlovski won that fight on points, but it was close, lacklustre and went to decision with Silvia getting the nod. Ok, fine. So what about this fight? Well, Edgar spent the five rounds dancing and circling around Penn, trying to land punches and feigning takedowns here and there (at least, I assume they were feints because if they were real efforts he failed miserably). He did land one takedown in the 5th round (I think) which I felt would give him that round, but for the rest of the fight it was Penn who was landing the more effective strikes. Edgar threw far more punches, don’t get me wrong, but Penn’s were landing at a far greater rate, it seemed. Penn did seem to fade in rounds four and five, but even then he seemed to be getting the better of the exchanges. When the scores were announced, I was disappointed that one judge had the fight 50-45, meaning he didn’t think Edgar deserved even that one takedown round. I was floored when the unanimous decision was actually going Edgar’s way, meaning that HE was being given all five rounds by that one judge. Wow. So what happens now? Will Penn want to regain his belt or will he use this as an opportunity to move back up to welterweight? (Man, I hope not – at least not if it means an undeserved second rematch with GSP!) It would seem inconsistent with Penn’s ego to vacate the lightweight division without the title in his hands, so I’m betting on a rematch in a few months, with Penn moving on if he wins that night. If that isn’t the plan, look for lightweights to be positively salivating at the prospect of facing Edgar for the belt and not Penn. First up, the man who last beat Edgar – Gray Maynard. Boy, wouldn’t Kenny Florian be pissed, too, since Edgar didn’t have to go through him to get his shot. If Penn, like other champs who have lost their belt, is forced to take a redemption fight before getting a rematch, then I’d love to see him square off against the Energizer bunny, Clay Guida. (1-1)

Matt Hughes def. Renzo Gracie (TKO 3) – When the fight card was announced, I feared it might turn into a complete dud of an evening with three boring fights to end it off. Aside from the shock of Edgar’s win and the insanity of Silva’s behaviour, I was right. All three main event fights were uneventful, boring fights. The fact that this one actually ended before it went to the scorecards is testament to the fact that Renzo had no business inside the octagon. Before this fight, Gracie hadn’t fought in 3 years. By his own admission, he hadn’t trained in two and a half years leading up to the six months of training for this fight. That’s ridiculous. Why did the UFC even make this fight? The guy makes his UFC debut at 43? WTF? Matt Hughes fights once a year and this is the match-up you give him? What a waste of time. That said, it’s not like Hughes dominated Gracie. He landed very few clean shots, basically wearing his opponent down with kicks. But Gracie still looked terrible. He clearly did not have the gas for this fight and went down at every occasion simply from fatigue. One knockdown was clearly a phantom punch. Eventually, Herb Dean stepped in not because Hughes was threatening to hurt his defenseless opponent but because Gracie simply could not continue. Pathetic. And he has a six fight contract? Let’s hope the UFC cuts him. (2-1)

Rafael Dos Anjos def Terry Etim (sub 2) – Sure, the main events were garbage, but the prelims/undercard fights weren’t bad. Etim had Dos Anjos in serious trouble in the first round with a deep guillotine choke but Dos Anjos turned the tables in the second, securing an arm bar submission for the win. Good fight. (2-2)

Mark Munoz def. Kendall Grove (TKO 2) – This was another one where one guy dominated in the first but got put away in the next round. Munoz took a big uppercut in the first and was on queer street for the rest of the round. His wrestling saved him as he was able to tie up Grove against the cage and ride out the storm. He didn’t look much better in the second, but still managed to land a few shots that shook Grove and then he dropped some bombs from the top to draw the ref’s mercy. Grove’s soft chin was exposed again. (3-2)

Phil Davis def. Alexander Gustafsson (sub 1) – I’m not sure why I picked Gustafsson in this one. Davis was insanely impressive in his beatdown of Brian Stann though he did have holes in his game. Still, they weren’t holes Gustafsson was going to be able to take advantage of on his feet and once this went to the ground it was pretty much over. Davis secured an anaconda choke that had Gustafsson tapping with just 5 seconds left in the round. Ouch. (3-3)

Rick Story def. Nick Osipczak (split decision) – Apparently Story eked this one out after a tough battle with the always game Osipczak. Wish I had seen it. (4-3)

DeMarques Johnson def. Brad Blackburn (TKO 3) – Didn’t see it, but Johnson earned KO of the Night. (5-3)

Paul Kelly def. Matt Veach (sub 2) – Oh well, my underdog pick didn’t pan out. Kelly was very successful in his lightweight debut, finishing Veach with a guillotine. Veach’s face was a mess afterwards. I’m looking forward to seeing Kelly’s future lightweight matches. (5-4)

Jon Madsen def. Mostapha Al Turk (unanimous) – Ok, that’s three losses in three appearances for Al Turk. Surely this is the end of his UFC career. I thought he’d redeem himself, but I was wrong. Time to go. (5-5)

Paul Taylor vs John Gunderson – This fight didn’t happen for medical reasons. I was a bit confused as to the weight class for this fight and apparently Taylor was, too.

So a .500 record for the night. A couple of dogs didn’t pan out and you can’t blame me for not picking Edgar. Still, I thought I’d do better. Next time.

UFC Live: Vera vs Jones Results

Ok, let's see how I did...

Jon Jones def. Brandon Vera (TKO 1) – Jones keeps looking good. The fight itself, like a couple of others, was a bit of a dud, with Vera getting hurt by an elbow and essentially giving up without any sign of blood. He tried his hardest afterwards to sell the fact that he was hurt, though, which didn’t endear him to me. If you’re injured, you don’t have to sell it. I saw Dana White speak at the Toronto Eaton Centre on Tuesday and he didn’t exactly give Vera a vote of confidence, telling the crowd quite seriously that they’d have to think about what to do with Vera next. After another lackluster performance, I think he’s just one step removed from the door. Jones’ next fight will be against a big name like Griffin, Jackson, Evans, Silva or Couture to set him up for a title run next year. (1-0)

Junior Dos Santos def. Gabriel Gonzaga (KO 1) – Dos Santos is another guy who is burning up the charts. This guy is ready for prime time and his next fight could easily be a #1 contender’s fight against the likes of Velasquez, Carwin or Mir, depending on how ugly the picture gets with the ridiculous interim belt. Gonzaga is talented, but his chin has been tested a few times now and it has failed. (2-0)

Cheick Kongo def. Paul Buentello (sub 3) – Kongo looked great, but that’s probably due to the fact that Buentello was the perfect opponent for him. Buentello is a heavy hitter but has zero ground game or wrestling skills, it seems. Kongo was able to dodge any heavy shots and managed to get the fight to the ground where he pretty much lay on top of Buentello and wore him out with some G&P (the submission was due to strikes). Don’t be fooled though: Kongo is still far from being a top contender. Put him up against someone who knows what they’re doing on the ground and he’s screwed. (3-0)

Alessio Sakara def. James Irvin (TKO 1) – Perhaps the most disappointing fight of the night as Irvin cried “No mas” after getting a shot to the eye. If he doesn’t have some sort of severe fracture or dislocation, it would be pretty disappointing (in a sense) because it would mean he just wussed out and couldn’t fight through it. I wonder if his heart was in it. (3-1)

Clay Guida def. Shannon Gugerty (sub 2) – Guida is a monster. The guy just does not stop. He dominated Gugerty. Still, he can’t seem to pull off the big wins – when it matters the most. He’s clearly the gatekeeper to the upper echelons of the lightweight division, though. (4-1)

Vladimir Matyushenko def. Eliot Marshall (split) - I didn’t see this one. Can’t say I was surprised by the result. (5-1)

Darren Elkins def. Duane Ludwig (TKO 1) – This one was stopped 44 seconds in when Ludwig injured his ankle, so it hardly counts. What a waste of a training camp. (5-2)

John Howard def. Daniel Roberts (KO 1) – Roberts looked great, but Howard managed to get in the one heavy punch that turned out the lights. Too bad, ‘cause I sense Roberts is the greater talent. (5-3)

Brendan Schaub def. Chase Gormley (KO 1) – Zoinks, yo. Schaub kicked this guy’s ass like the guy owed him money. That boy has power. (6-3)

Mike Pierce def. Julio Paulino (unanimous) – Didn’t see it, but can’t say I’m surprised. (7-3)

Jason Brilz def. Eric Schafer (unanimous) – Didn’t see it. Again, not shocked. (8-3)

Whoa! 8-3 including that Ludwig dud? I’m definitely psychic.

Stay tuned for my UFC 111 picks – GSP vs Hardy!

UFC Live: Vera vs Jones picks

This is an event availble on regular cable tv (at least in Canada) whihc is pretty sweet, 'cause it's a decent card, unlike most Fight Night Live cards which feature TUF guys and one ok fight as a main event.

Let's get to the picks:

Brandon Vera vs Jon Jones (light heavyweight) - Remember when Vera was the next big thing? When he had a great record, was a young up and comer and appeared to be a threat in the heavyweight and light heavyweight divisions? Well, after some lackluster performances in his last - what - 5 fights, that seems like a long time ago. Now it's Jones who is the up and comer with the great record and appears to be a rising darling with the UFC. This fight could represent a transition in both fighters' careers. If Jones wins, we could see him move into the top flight of the UFC, ready to take on some of the contenders. Vera would be looking at his second straight loss, his fifth in nine fights, and 3-3 since moving to light heavyweight. I don't think he'd be in danger of getting cut, but his star would seriously lack some shine. He ought to be the favourite in this fight and yet fans have him as a 2-1 underdog. Is it over for Vera? It all depends on which Vera shows up. If Smart Vera shows up, he'll find the weaknesses in Jones' game and secure a takedown and submission. If Silly Vera shows up, he'll stand and bang and get knocked out. This is a tough one to call. Jones is scary, but we haven't seen Vera's chin tested and I don't know if Jones can handle Vera on the ground. I think this one might actually turn into a snooze fest after the first round, with Jones winning by decision after some modest ground and pound.

Junior Dos Santos vs Gabriel Gonzaga (heavyweight) - Gonzaga needs to get this one to the mat. If he stands and bangs I don't like his chances one bit. Dos Santos has tremendous power in his fists, moreso than Gonzaga who is no slouch himself. I'm picking Dos Santos by KO.

Cheick Kongo vs Paul Buentello (heavyweight) - I've never been a big fans of Buentello's. He's a guy who swings for the fences with his big gut sticking out and seems to lay eggs in the big fights. He's susceptible to submissions, but he's fortunate that his opponent on Sunday has no ground game whatsoever. Cheick Kongo is a big dude who made a splash upon his arrival in the UFC, but has also been unimpressive in recent fights (even in victory). Neither one of these guys strikes me as true MMA fighters or heavyweight contenders. Buentello might get the KO, but I'll pick Kongo to bore us with a decision. The loser should be halfway to the door.

Alessio Sakara vs James Irvin (middleweight) - This is a battle of returning fighters. Sakara's been away since August 2009 while Irvin's been away a month longer thanks to injury and a drug suspension. It also features Irvin's debut at 185, which is a bit of a surprise as that's Anderson Silva's weight class - the guy who clubbed him last time out. Both fighters need the win after so-so careers in the cage. Both seem to like to stand and trade, in which case I'd give Irvin the edge. It'll be interesting to see if Irvin can handle the weight drop, though. Still, I'll pull for him. Irvin by KO.

Clay Guida vs Shannon Gugerty (lightweight) - after an 18-3 start, Guida is 7-8 in his last 15. That's not good. But three times he's won Fight Of The Night honours and he's had lots of tough opposition. This guy simply does not stop. I can't see him losing to Gugerty who has a far less impressive resume and is simply filling in for Sean Sherk. I'm picking Guida.

Eliot Marshall vs Vladimir Matyushenko (light heavyweight) - I like Marshall, but I fear he may be outclassed by Matyushenko. The man from Belarus has a very impressive resume while Marshall is still pretty new to the game and has yet to face top competition. Clearly this is a test for Marshall, and I think his only hope is to outlast the older (39) Matyushenko. If this goes to the ground, it'll be interesting to see what Marshall's jiu-jitsu can do against the old wrestler. I see Matyushenko by dull decision.

Duane Ludwig vs Darren Elkins (lightweight?) - Elkins is listed as a welterweight on the UFC site...Not sure what class this is being fought in. Lightweight, I think. Ludwig is a capable fighter while Elkins is making his UFC debut. I'll take the experienced Ludwig.

John Howard vs Daniel Roberts (welterweight) - I've never heard of Roberts, but the guy is a submission machine. Howard is no slouch, either. He's on a 6 fight win streak, 3 in the UFC. This could be the best fight of the night. Howard tends to go to decision, though, while Roberts is a first round finisher. I'll pick the new guy, Roberts.

Brendan Schaub vs Chase Gormley (heavyweight) - Schaub will be looking to make up for his highlight reel loss to Roy Nelson in the TUF finale. Can't say I know much about Gormley. I like Schaub, so I'll pick him.

Mike Pierce vs Julio Paulino (welterweight) - although his record doesn't show it, Pierce has a much better resulme than Paulino, who seems to spend a lot of time fighting in Alaska. I'll pick Pierce.

Eric Schafer vs Jason Brilz (light heavyweight) - Schafer is good but has laid some eggs. Brilz is coming off a loss but is a wrestler with submission skills. That's always good. 17-2 is also good, though granted not against top flight competition. Still, I'll pick Brilz for fun.

UFC 107 Results - Penn survives the Nightmare

Alright, kiddies, let's see how it all went down:

BJ Penn def Diego Sanchez (TKO 5) - If you had told me that BJ would TKO Sanchez in round 5 I would have told you you were nuts. This seemed to be the least likely scenario based on BJ's gas tank and Diego's determination. But since it was a DOCTOR's stoppage, I understand. That was a crazy gash on Diego's forehead. I'm glad BJ was winning handily at the time or it might have been tragic. I didn't see the event, so I can't comment on how Diego was doing, but I understand BJ had things well in hand at that point. In the end, perhaps the fact that it was Diego's first fve rounder caught up to him a little, but a three rounder would have had the same result - BJ is still the champ. It appears that BJ was most impressive on Saturday. I'm somewhat surprised he was as effective as he was, even in rounds four and five. Good for him. As for Diego, this is his first loss in a while and he still has an incredible record and great potential, so we may see him back in the title mix soon. (0-1)

Frank Mir def Cheick Kongo (sub 1) - This appears to have been a non-fight. Was MIr that impressive or did Kongo suck that badly? I've never been all that impressed by Kongo, and have long felt he was overrated by the UFC, but what are you going to do with a depleted heavyweight division? Mir looked huge and is clearly hoping for Mir-Lesnar 3. He may never get it, based on health reports from the Lesnar camp, but he may get his shot at an interim title in the coming months. Look for him to take on the winner of Carwin-Velasquez. (1-1)

Jon Fitch def Mike Pierce (unanimous) - No big surprise, other than perhaps the fact that it went the distance. This is the problem with many of Fitch's recent fights. He needs to finish more. This doesn't appear to be the kind of fight that puts him back in title contention. (2-1)

Kenny Florian def Clay Guida - Wish I had seen this. Looks like the gash that Florian opened up on the side of Guida's head really made the difference. Guida was bleeding like a stuck pig. I'm shocked that Guida was stopped so easily. (2-2)

Stefan Struve def Paul Buentello (majority) - Looks like this was a close fight - perhaps closer than it ought to have been given that Struve apparently put it in cruise control late in the fight. I think the surprising thing was that Struve stood and banged it out with Buentello. I'm glad Struve won (a rare majority decision thanks to one 28-28 score). He seems to be a good kid. I doubt he'll go too far with his lankiness, but he makes for a fun fight to watch. (3-2)

Alan Belcher def Wilson Gouveia (TKO 1) - A bit of a surprising result (the quickness of it). Not sure where this leaves Gouveia. (4-2)

Matt Wiman def Shane Nelson (unanimous) - I hope both fighters impressed, but considering it went to decision... (5-2)

Johny Hendricks def Ricardo Funch (unanimous) - Another decision. Hendricks is still undefeated, so I wonder if he'll go up in competition. Watch out for this guy. (6-2)

Rousimar Palhares def Lucio Linhares (sub 2) - Palhares is a freak. If he can get by against bigger opponents watch out. He's dangerous. I'd like to see this one, just to see how he pulled off the heel hook. (7-2)

DeMarques Johnson def Edgar Garcia (sub 1) - Johnson pulled it off. Garcia dropped his second straight UFC fight, the only two blemishes on his record. Losing in the first round by submission never looks good. Wonder if we'll see this kid again. (7-3)

TJ Grant def Kevin Burns (TKO 1) - Nice to see the Canadian win. First round TKO makes it pretty impressive. Knockout of the Night? Doubly impressive. This ought to get him on another UFC card soon. (8-3)

Whoa: 8-3! That's pretty impressive, too! And had I picked the favourites in KenFLo and BJ I would have been almost perfect. Now we have a bit of a layoff (3 weeks is a layoff?!) before UFC 108 pits Rashad Evans against Thiago Silva on an otherwise less than impressive card.

Happy holidays.

UFC 107 Predictions

Another week, another UFC event - this time on PPV - and yet again, I'm gonna miss it. This time, even TiVo won't save me. F*ck!

It's shaping up to be a good one, too. And with the health of most elite UFC fighters these days being fragile at best, it may be the best collection of fights we'll see for a while.

Ok, my picks:

BJ Penn vs Diego Sanchez

Am I the only one who gives Sanchez even odds in this fight? Sanchez ought to be the bigger, stronger fighter and he has a wide range of skills, much like Penn. He's no rookie, either, and aside from a bad health stretch a while back, his record is pretty much spotless. He could have easily been undefeated at this point. Yet people seem to think he's a ridiculous underdog in this fight. Ridiculous? Maybe. Underdog? Not by much. If this fight goes into the third round and beyond, Sanchez's odds of winning increase exponentially. Sanchez doesn't seem to tire and Penn still has an anemic gas tank as we saw with GSP. I think Penn is the smarter fighter and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he gets a decision (I can't see him finishing Sanchez), but I'm gonna go balls out and pick Sanchez to pull off the "upset" and become the new lightweight champ.

Frank Mir vs Cheick Kongo

Kongo could lay and pray all night and try to blast Mir like Lesnar did, but I don't see it. I think Kongo will try to stand all night while Mir will be desperate to get this fight to the ground. If it does go to the mat, look for Mir to secure a submission. Otherwise, this could turn out to be yet another boring Kongo dance. I'm pulling for Mir.

Jon Fitch vs Mike Pierce

Pierce seems ok, but I don't think too many fighters are in Fitch's class. I think this fight will get Fitch back into contention and possibly set up a Fitch-Koschceck #1 contender's fight to face the GSP-Hardy winner.

Kenny Florian vs Clay Guida

A potential fight of the night battle between two guys who like to go and try to finish fights. Guida is a freak of nature with his cardio, so Florian will have his hands full. It's almost impossible to knock Guida out, so Florian will likely try to work the submissions, likely from the bottom as Guida uses his wrestling skills. I don't like Florian's odds in this one. I could see Guida getting the decision. Sorry, KenFlo.

Paul Buentello vs Stefan Struve

Buentello returns to the UFC. Can't say I was a fan of his the first time around. He was famously knocked out by Andrei Arlovski. Struve will have his usual massive height and reach advantage, so it'll be interesting to see if Buentello can get inside and use his power - otherwise, he's screwed. I could see Struve wearing Buentello out, and securing a submission in the third round. I'll pick him.

Alan Belcher vs Wilson Gouveia - Two guys who tend not to impress but somehow manage to get wins when you least expect them. Not sure who to pick here. Belcher works hard, at least, whereas Gouveia seems to fluke out knockouts. I'll pick...Belcher?

Matt Wiman vs Shane Nelson - I'm a fan of Wiman's so I'd like to see him get back on the winning track. Three losses in a row could be the end of him. I'll pick Wiman.

Johny Hendricks vs Ricardo Funch - Hendricks is good and Funch is a nobody who has fought no one of consequence. I'll take the experienced guy.

Rousimar Palhares vs Lucio Linhares - Palhares is awesome but needs to drop a weight class. He's too small at middleweight. He'll be six inches shorter than his opponent. Still, I'll pick him for fun.

DeMarques Johnson vs Edgar Garcia - Johnson didn't exactly overwhelm me with his talent on TUF, so I'll go with the darkhorse Garcia who will have something to prove after dropping his UFC debut (his only MMA loss).

Kevin Burns vs TJ Grant - Can't go against the Canadian in a toss up fight. I'll pick Grant.

I look forward to reading the results... *sigh*

TUF 9 Finale - Results

Let’s see:

Diego Sanchez def. Clay Guida (split decision)
James Wilks def. DaMarques Johnson (rear naked choke - 1)
Chris Lytle def. Kevin Burns (unanimous decision)
Ross Pearson def. Andre Winner (unanimous decision)
Joe Stevenson def. Nate Diaz (unanimous decision)
Melvin Guillard def. Gleison Tibau (split decision)
Brad Blackburn def. Edgar Garcia (split decision)
Tomasz Drwal def. Mike Ciesnolevicz (TKO – 1)
Nick Osipczak def. Frank Lester (rear naked choke - 1)
Jason Dent def. Cameron Dollar (anaconda choke – 1)

I thought Sanchez was going to get robbed in the decision based on previous judges’ scoring. While Sanchez was clearly delivering the majority of the punishment, Guida was on top for a good chunk of the decisive third round and usually top position is equated with winning. I assume, of course, that it was the third round that was decisive since Guida was on top for most of the second – but Sanchez delivered some brutal elbows in that round, so who knows which one swayed the third judge. Further clouding the issue is the fact that the UFC would benefit more from a Sanchez win as he is the more colourful character and would likely sell more tickets in a title fight than Guida. I’m not convinced judges aren’t influenced by this sort of thing. We can now look forward to a Sanchez vs Penn/Florian fight for the 155 belt in 4 months or so. It ought to be interesting either way, but, while I like Florian, I don’t think there’s much doubt a Sanchez-Penn match-up would be more desirable to the UFC and fans. After all, Sanchez humbled Florian once already (though in a different weight class) and it’s always more interesting to see an established champ defend the belt than first timers (see the light heavyweight division).

I also correctly predicted Wilks would beat Johnson. Wilks struck early, putting Johnson on the defensive and the American couldn’t get out of the round to gather himself. Despite a few decent exchanges, Wilks was clearly in control and got the much-deserved win. It’ll be interesting to see how he does going forward. I was impressed with Wilks’ skills.

I went 3-for-3 in the top portion of the card when Lytle got the nod over a game Kevin Burns. Lytle threw bombs from the opening seconds and didn’t let up until the horn sounded. I was really impressed with Lytle’s cardio, which allowed him to give it all for 15 minutes and was the difference in the fight; Burns was gassed and was in retreat mode for much of the third round. Lytle isn’t champ material, but he’s one of those guys who acts as a gatekeeper to the upper ranks – if you can beat him, you deserve top-flight fights. Burns just isn’t there yet.

I really wanted Ross Pearson to win, but I thought Andre Winner was going to squeeze out a decision. I thought these two would stand and trade shots, with Winner having the jab advantage. I didn’t expect that these guys would hug for 15 minutes with no intervention by the ref (have I mentioned how much most refs suck? Herb Dean is by far the worst with Mazzagatti second). For a TUF “title fight” this was a dud. The two competitors negated each other’s offence and the result was a fight too close to call; not enough happened to distinguish the two competitors. I thought it fair that the first two rounds would be split and the third would decide the outcome since no one seemed to deserve being up 2-0. That said, I thought Winner was getting the best of Pearson in the first two and might have gotten the nod as the result. But Pearson was a little more active in the third and, thanks to the split rounds, got the decision. I really wasn’t impressed, but am looking forward to seeing more of Pearson in the future to see what he really has to offer.

What was Nate Diaz thinking? His loss to Joe Stevenson was due to one thing – strategy. Diaz is the more talented fighter, but he allowed Stevenson to take him down and stay on top – which was enough to earn the victory. Stevenson really didn’t do much, but Diaz was happy to stay on his back and attempt submissions. What he should have done was stay on his feet as much as possible and pick Stevenson apart a la BJ Penn. Instead, he pulled guard, made no real attempt to get back up and tried…what? Kimoras? Come on… Diaz has pulled this kind of stupidity before and obviously needs new coaching ‘cause his current approach sucks. This is a serious speed bump for him. Both of these guys have careers going nowhere fast.

In the undercard, I went 1-4, but I blame part of that on bad info from the UFC website. Tomasz Drwal and Mike Ciesnolevicz were fighting at light heavyweight which explains the discrepancy in their stats. Ciesnolevicz failed to make weight, though, and the big cut he did make probably factored in his loss. I’d have to see the other fights to comment on them. I’d like to see the Guillard-Tibau fight, for one.

So 3-2 on the main card, 1-4 on the undercard, 4-4 with fighters I knew, 4-6 overall.

Let the hype and build-up to UFC 100 begin!

TUF 9 Finale - Predictions

The Ultimate Fighter 9 finale is Saturday night, so here are my picks:

MAIN CARD

Diego Sanchez vs Clay Guida (155)

I used to be a pretty big fan of Sanchez’s, but he’s gotten crazier and crazier it seems and his style is suffering. He used to be relentless and inventive in his attacks, but lately he seems to have become more one-dimensional, looking to knock people out with boxing. Diego’s strength is his wrestling/ground game and he should return to it going forward. That said, he could take advantage of his size to pick Guida apart.

My money’s on: Sanchez. I see this one going to decision with Sanchez squeaking out a victory on points based on his jab.

DaMarques Johnson Vs. James Wilks (170)

These guys are pretty evenly matched. Both are good strikers without having the best chins. This could end in a surprising knockout at any moment.

My money’s on: Wilks. I can see Wilks taking Johnson down and earning the win. It ought to be close, though.

Chris Lytle Vs. Kevin Burns (170)

I like both of these guys, but Lytle’s a warrior and ought to be able to use his experience to beat Burns.

My money’s on: Lytle.

Ross Pearson Vs. Andre Winner (155)

I quite like Pearson’s energy and style, but Winner’s got a size advantage. When in doubt, go with the taller guy.

My money’s on: Winner. Go figure. (If Pearson wins, am I still right?)

Joe Stevenson Vs. Nate Diaz (155)

Stevenson may be the most overrated fighter in the UFC. He’s pulled off some nice submissions against foolish opponents, but Diaz is no fool and definitely has the edge in the submission department. Look for Stevenson to try to take Diaz down (after Diaz outboxes him) and, if he does, for Diaz to find the submission.

My money’s on: Diaz – on the ground or on the feet. Diaz ought to fly to the upper echelon after this fight.

UNDERCARD

Melvin Guillard Vs. Gleison Tibau (155)

This one all depends on Guillard. If he’s smart, he could knock Tibau out. If he’s foolish, he’ll get submitted in a heartbeat. We’ve seen this before.

My money’s on: Tibau. I just think Guillard will find a way to screw this up and he’s been off for quite a while.

Brad Blackburn Vs. Edgar Garcia (170) – I’ll take undefeated Garcia.

Mike Ciesnolevicz Vs. Tomasz Drwal (heavyweight) – Why is 205lb Drwal fighting a heavyweight? I’ll take the bigger guy: Ciesnolevicz.

Nick Osipczak Vs. Frank Lester (170) – Back to the TUF guys. Osipczak has the size/reach advantage, but he doesn’t have the chin to handle Lester if he connects. I’ll pick Lester in this one, probably by TKO.

Jason Dent Vs. Cameron Dollar (155) – I haven’t been impressed with Dollar and Dent has determination. I’ll pick Dent.