UFC 131 Picks

Ok, I've been slacking off here. I got married about a month ago and have been sidetracked. Sorry, folks!

So let's get our 131 picks in before the event starts, shall we?

Junior Dos Santos vs. Shane Carwin (heavyweight)
This was supposed to be Dos Santos vs Lesnar, the battle of the two Ultimate Fighter coaches, but Lesnar's stomach problems flared up so he's out til the new year. In steps Carwin and this becomes arguably a better fight. Power vs power. Thing is, Carwin has power for one round, it seems, while Dos Santos can go longer. So the question is whether Dos Santos can get the fight beyond the first round and whether Carwin will have any gas if it does. Dos Santos is tough and has dynamite in his hands, but Carwin has plutonium in his. These guys have identical records and while Dos Santos is two inches taller, Carwin is 30lbs heavier and has a surprising two inch reach advantage. When these two throw bombs, those tiny two inches could make all the difference. I like both of these guys, and while I don’t like Carwin’s chances beyond the first round, I think this fight won’t last that long. I’m picking Carwin to either KO Dos Santos or use his wrestling to get the fight to the ground and pound his way to victory.

Kenny Florian vs. Diego Nunes (featherweight)

Florian makes his debut at 145lbs versus the WEC vet. Nunes is dangerous, with his only loss by decision – but that’s the thing: he often goes to decision. Florian does a much better job of finishing and will have the edge on the ground. They have similar styles, but Florian should have the size advantage. This is not an easy fight for Florian, but I guess he didn’t want to waste any time getting into title contention at 145. I’m picking Florian.

Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman (heavyweight)

This is the third ranked fight? Really? Not much of a card, I guess. Might explain the lack of a sell-out in Vancouver. Ok, based on Wikipedia, I’d say Einemo looks very impressive. Not a ton of experience, but he’s a very good BJJ guy who has made guys tap out due to strikes. Nice. Herman has a lot of experience, but nothing very notable. He knocks guys out fast. This could be fun. I was gonna pick the better BJJ guy, but Herman’s a wrestler, which means he ought to be able to avoid the ground and swing for the fences. I’ll pick Herman.

Demian Maia vs. Mark Munoz (middleweight)

Could be interesting, could be boring. Maia is a BJJ ace, while Munoz has power. Being a wrestler, Munoz might be able to avoid the ground where Maia is almost lights out. I don’t like Maia’s chances if he stands and boxes with Munoz. This style match-up would seem to favour Munoz. Maia is smart, though – I think he’ll find a way. I’ll pick Maia.

Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha (lightweight)

I like Cerrone. He always brings the fight. Rocha is a dangerous BJJ guy, but Cerrone will likely stand and bang out a victory. I’ll pick Cerrone.

Sam Stout vs. Yves Edwards (lightweight)

Stout is another entertaining fighter, though he’s a bit one dimensional these days. He pretty much just stands and bangs, without much KO power. Edwards has a crazy amount of experience but has won only 10 of his last 18 fights over 6 years. Not bad, not great. He’s dangerous on the ground, but I don’t imagine Stout will engage him there. This could be fight of the night. I’m gonna pick Edwards by submission.

Jesse Bongfeldt vs. Chris Weidman (middleweight)

Bongfeldt is Canadian and although he does not have a ton of accolades or international experience and is listed as a karate fighter, he has shown that he can finish guys on the ground. Weidman is still pretty green, though he does have a win over Alessio Sakara.I'll pick the Canadian - Bongfeldt.

Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Mike Massenzio (light heavyweight)

Soszynski needs this one. Massenzio is a replacement, fighting a bit above his weight. I'll pick Soszynski.

Nick Ring vs. James Head (middleweight)

Ring won a controversial one last time out, so he needs a clean win here to silence the critics. Head has a decent record, but is making his UFC debut while Ring has been there before. I'll pick Ring by decision.

Dustin Poirier vs. Jason Young (featherweight)

Poirier has the better record, better experience and can submit. I'll pick Poirier.

Joey Beltran vs. Aaron Rosa (heavyweight)

I'm not a fan of Beltran's. He has a decent record, but is coming off two losses and his last win was a controversial one over Tim Hague. Rosa, though, is green to the UFC and is a bit large so he may gas. I like his BJJ experience in this one, though. I'll pick Rosa for the upset.

Darren Elkins vs. Michihiro Omigawa (featherweight)

Not a big fan of Omigawa. I expect Elkins will lay and pray to victory. I'll pick Elkins.

UFC 117 Results

Yup. It lived up to the hype. Damn, 'cause I missed it. Caught some fights on the interwebs after, but it's not the same. My social life is killing me!

Anderson Silva vs Chael Sonnen (middleweight)
I cannot BELIEVE Sonnen blew this. He was kicking Silva's ass for 23 minutes and then gets caught with a punch to the face and a triangle choke? Are you kidding me? Dude. The f**k? I don't care if Silva had rib issues. That doesn't explain getting punched and knocked down. It doesn't explain getting taken down with double legs repeatedly. Styles make fights and I've long said the style to beat Silva is wrestling. Sonnen had all the tools but had a brain fart and kissed it away. (1-0)

Jon Fitch vs Thiago Alves II (welterweight)
Fitch proved once again that he's a level above Alves. After the long lay off, Alves wasn't ready or qualified to take a #1 contender's fight. (2-0)

Clay Guida vs Rafael Dos Anjos (lightweight)
Too bad Dos Anjos broke his jaw. Still, it looked like Guida was in control. (3-0)

Matt Hughes vs Ricardo Almeida (welterweight)
Hughes caught Almeida with a nice punch and Almeida couldn't recover. Otherwise, no way he gets submitted by Hughes. Too bad it didn't last longer. It didn't really answer any of the questions going in. (3-1)

Roy Nelson vs Junior Dos Santos (heavyweight)
I said Dos Santos would need to box his way to a decision and he did. Nelson took some serious shots and held his own against a recognized contender. I picked the upset, but it didn't quite pan out. (3-2)

Dustin Hazelett vs Rick Story (welterweight)
Story has been looking good. Too bad for Hazelett. (4-2)

Phil Davis vs Rodney Wallace (light heavyweight)
Davis is awesome. Too bad I missed it. (5-2)

Tim Boetsch vs Todd Brown (heavyweight)
Picking the Canadian paid off for once - besides GSP, of course. (6-2)

Johny Hendricks vs Charlie Brenneman (welterweight)
Missed it. Hendricks needs some tougher opponents. (7-2)

Stefan Struve vs Christian Morecraft (heavyweight)
Struve was in trouble until Morecraft decided to get into a jab fest with a guy with crazy long arms. Bad idea. (8-2)

Wow: 8-2. Not bad at all. Had I gone with the favourites in those two matches I would have had the perfect night. Bring on the next PPV! (and let's hope I get to see it!!)

UFC 117 Silva v Sonnen Picks

Gonna be busy the next couple of days. Better get my picks in quick:

Anderson Silva vs Chael Sonnen (middleweight)
Much as I would love to see Sonnen win (or, rather, Silva lose), I just don't see it happening. Can Sonnen really lay and pray for FIVE rounds against Silva? I don't see it. I'm picking Silva.

Jon Fitch vs Thiago Alves II (welterweight)
Again? Has Alves earned it? I dunno. Seems to me Fitch is the real #1 contender in the division but considering he got hammered by GSP, it's tough to match him up with anyone. I think the obvious match is Fitch vs Jake Shields for the #1 spot, but it seems the UFC doesn't wanna run the risk of missing out on the anticipated GSP-Shields fight down the road. I'm picking Fitch again.

Clay Guida vs Rafael Dos Anjos (lightweight)
Could be exciting. Guida is a cardio machine. If this guy is high on life alone, he should be studied by scientists. I can see Guida smothering this guy and not getting submitted. I'm picking Guida.

Matt Hughes vs Ricardo Almeida (welterweight)
This is the fight I want to see. Is Hughes done? Having him fight Gracie wasn't gonna answer that question. But if he beats a real fighter like Alemeida then you have to put him back in the title mix. I'm gonna go against the grain and pick Almeida by decision.

Roy Nelson vs Junior Dos Santos (heavyweight)
Another great fight. Dos Santos is awesome, but Nelson is the Blob. Can Dos Santos avoid getting smothered and can he KO the Burger King? I think this is a tough one for Dos Santos. Nelson will be hungrier than usual 'cause a win here puts him in the title hunt for sure. Dos Santos will have to box and hope for a decision. Strange as it seems, I'm picking Nelson.

Dustin Hazelett vs Rick Story (welterweight)
I like both of these fighters. Story is more well-rounded, though and might be able to take down Hazelett while avoiding submissions. I'm picking Story.

Phil Davis vs Rodney Wallace (light heavyweight)
I can't believe I might miss this event... This could be another good one. Fireworks. Davis is incredible. I can't go against him. I'm picking Davis.

Tim Boetsch vs Todd Brown (heavyweight)
I don't know anything about Brown and don't have tie to look him up. I'm picking the Canadian - Boetsch.

Johny Hendricks vs Charlie Brenneman (welterweight)
Crazy card. Hendricks in a dark match? The guy is great. Don't know much about Brenneman. I'm picking Hendricks.

Stefan Struve vs Christian Morecraft (heavyweight)
Struve is a giant, but Morecraft is a big guy, too. Morecraft has a good record with quick finishes. Struve has a history of either winning, or losing by KO early. Just what Morecraft wants. I don't live Struve's chances, but maybe the UFC lights will intimidate Morecraft. I'll pick Struve by submission.

Wicked card. Let's hope it lives up to the hype.

UFC Live: Vera vs Jones Results

Ok, let's see how I did...

Jon Jones def. Brandon Vera (TKO 1) – Jones keeps looking good. The fight itself, like a couple of others, was a bit of a dud, with Vera getting hurt by an elbow and essentially giving up without any sign of blood. He tried his hardest afterwards to sell the fact that he was hurt, though, which didn’t endear him to me. If you’re injured, you don’t have to sell it. I saw Dana White speak at the Toronto Eaton Centre on Tuesday and he didn’t exactly give Vera a vote of confidence, telling the crowd quite seriously that they’d have to think about what to do with Vera next. After another lackluster performance, I think he’s just one step removed from the door. Jones’ next fight will be against a big name like Griffin, Jackson, Evans, Silva or Couture to set him up for a title run next year. (1-0)

Junior Dos Santos def. Gabriel Gonzaga (KO 1) – Dos Santos is another guy who is burning up the charts. This guy is ready for prime time and his next fight could easily be a #1 contender’s fight against the likes of Velasquez, Carwin or Mir, depending on how ugly the picture gets with the ridiculous interim belt. Gonzaga is talented, but his chin has been tested a few times now and it has failed. (2-0)

Cheick Kongo def. Paul Buentello (sub 3) – Kongo looked great, but that’s probably due to the fact that Buentello was the perfect opponent for him. Buentello is a heavy hitter but has zero ground game or wrestling skills, it seems. Kongo was able to dodge any heavy shots and managed to get the fight to the ground where he pretty much lay on top of Buentello and wore him out with some G&P (the submission was due to strikes). Don’t be fooled though: Kongo is still far from being a top contender. Put him up against someone who knows what they’re doing on the ground and he’s screwed. (3-0)

Alessio Sakara def. James Irvin (TKO 1) – Perhaps the most disappointing fight of the night as Irvin cried “No mas” after getting a shot to the eye. If he doesn’t have some sort of severe fracture or dislocation, it would be pretty disappointing (in a sense) because it would mean he just wussed out and couldn’t fight through it. I wonder if his heart was in it. (3-1)

Clay Guida def. Shannon Gugerty (sub 2) – Guida is a monster. The guy just does not stop. He dominated Gugerty. Still, he can’t seem to pull off the big wins – when it matters the most. He’s clearly the gatekeeper to the upper echelons of the lightweight division, though. (4-1)

Vladimir Matyushenko def. Eliot Marshall (split) - I didn’t see this one. Can’t say I was surprised by the result. (5-1)

Darren Elkins def. Duane Ludwig (TKO 1) – This one was stopped 44 seconds in when Ludwig injured his ankle, so it hardly counts. What a waste of a training camp. (5-2)

John Howard def. Daniel Roberts (KO 1) – Roberts looked great, but Howard managed to get in the one heavy punch that turned out the lights. Too bad, ‘cause I sense Roberts is the greater talent. (5-3)

Brendan Schaub def. Chase Gormley (KO 1) – Zoinks, yo. Schaub kicked this guy’s ass like the guy owed him money. That boy has power. (6-3)

Mike Pierce def. Julio Paulino (unanimous) – Didn’t see it, but can’t say I’m surprised. (7-3)

Jason Brilz def. Eric Schafer (unanimous) – Didn’t see it. Again, not shocked. (8-3)

Whoa! 8-3 including that Ludwig dud? I’m definitely psychic.

Stay tuned for my UFC 111 picks – GSP vs Hardy!

UFC Live: Vera vs Jones picks

This is an event availble on regular cable tv (at least in Canada) whihc is pretty sweet, 'cause it's a decent card, unlike most Fight Night Live cards which feature TUF guys and one ok fight as a main event.

Let's get to the picks:

Brandon Vera vs Jon Jones (light heavyweight) - Remember when Vera was the next big thing? When he had a great record, was a young up and comer and appeared to be a threat in the heavyweight and light heavyweight divisions? Well, after some lackluster performances in his last - what - 5 fights, that seems like a long time ago. Now it's Jones who is the up and comer with the great record and appears to be a rising darling with the UFC. This fight could represent a transition in both fighters' careers. If Jones wins, we could see him move into the top flight of the UFC, ready to take on some of the contenders. Vera would be looking at his second straight loss, his fifth in nine fights, and 3-3 since moving to light heavyweight. I don't think he'd be in danger of getting cut, but his star would seriously lack some shine. He ought to be the favourite in this fight and yet fans have him as a 2-1 underdog. Is it over for Vera? It all depends on which Vera shows up. If Smart Vera shows up, he'll find the weaknesses in Jones' game and secure a takedown and submission. If Silly Vera shows up, he'll stand and bang and get knocked out. This is a tough one to call. Jones is scary, but we haven't seen Vera's chin tested and I don't know if Jones can handle Vera on the ground. I think this one might actually turn into a snooze fest after the first round, with Jones winning by decision after some modest ground and pound.

Junior Dos Santos vs Gabriel Gonzaga (heavyweight) - Gonzaga needs to get this one to the mat. If he stands and bangs I don't like his chances one bit. Dos Santos has tremendous power in his fists, moreso than Gonzaga who is no slouch himself. I'm picking Dos Santos by KO.

Cheick Kongo vs Paul Buentello (heavyweight) - I've never been a big fans of Buentello's. He's a guy who swings for the fences with his big gut sticking out and seems to lay eggs in the big fights. He's susceptible to submissions, but he's fortunate that his opponent on Sunday has no ground game whatsoever. Cheick Kongo is a big dude who made a splash upon his arrival in the UFC, but has also been unimpressive in recent fights (even in victory). Neither one of these guys strikes me as true MMA fighters or heavyweight contenders. Buentello might get the KO, but I'll pick Kongo to bore us with a decision. The loser should be halfway to the door.

Alessio Sakara vs James Irvin (middleweight) - This is a battle of returning fighters. Sakara's been away since August 2009 while Irvin's been away a month longer thanks to injury and a drug suspension. It also features Irvin's debut at 185, which is a bit of a surprise as that's Anderson Silva's weight class - the guy who clubbed him last time out. Both fighters need the win after so-so careers in the cage. Both seem to like to stand and trade, in which case I'd give Irvin the edge. It'll be interesting to see if Irvin can handle the weight drop, though. Still, I'll pull for him. Irvin by KO.

Clay Guida vs Shannon Gugerty (lightweight) - after an 18-3 start, Guida is 7-8 in his last 15. That's not good. But three times he's won Fight Of The Night honours and he's had lots of tough opposition. This guy simply does not stop. I can't see him losing to Gugerty who has a far less impressive resume and is simply filling in for Sean Sherk. I'm picking Guida.

Eliot Marshall vs Vladimir Matyushenko (light heavyweight) - I like Marshall, but I fear he may be outclassed by Matyushenko. The man from Belarus has a very impressive resume while Marshall is still pretty new to the game and has yet to face top competition. Clearly this is a test for Marshall, and I think his only hope is to outlast the older (39) Matyushenko. If this goes to the ground, it'll be interesting to see what Marshall's jiu-jitsu can do against the old wrestler. I see Matyushenko by dull decision.

Duane Ludwig vs Darren Elkins (lightweight?) - Elkins is listed as a welterweight on the UFC site...Not sure what class this is being fought in. Lightweight, I think. Ludwig is a capable fighter while Elkins is making his UFC debut. I'll take the experienced Ludwig.

John Howard vs Daniel Roberts (welterweight) - I've never heard of Roberts, but the guy is a submission machine. Howard is no slouch, either. He's on a 6 fight win streak, 3 in the UFC. This could be the best fight of the night. Howard tends to go to decision, though, while Roberts is a first round finisher. I'll pick the new guy, Roberts.

Brendan Schaub vs Chase Gormley (heavyweight) - Schaub will be looking to make up for his highlight reel loss to Roy Nelson in the TUF finale. Can't say I know much about Gormley. I like Schaub, so I'll pick him.

Mike Pierce vs Julio Paulino (welterweight) - although his record doesn't show it, Pierce has a much better resulme than Paulino, who seems to spend a lot of time fighting in Alaska. I'll pick Pierce.

Eric Schafer vs Jason Brilz (light heavyweight) - Schafer is good but has laid some eggs. Brilz is coming off a loss but is a wrestler with submission skills. That's always good. 17-2 is also good, though granted not against top flight competition. Still, I'll pick Brilz for fun.