UFC 141 Results

Alistair Overeem def. Brock Lesnar (TKO 1)
Not sure what Brock's game plan was. He made one half-assed attempt at a takedown, but otherwise stood with the striker and paid for it. Brock can't take a punch, we all know that, but apparently the kicks were too much to handle as well. Didn't necessarily make Overeem look good, but we'll find out soon enough when he fights Junior Dos Santos for the belt. (1-0)

Nate Diaz def. Donald Cerrone (unanimous)
W.T.F....? What was Cerrone thinking? He took out Diaz's legs numerous times but refused to go to the ground with the BJJ guy. Was he THAT afraid? Or was he just pig-headed? Diaz has lost numerous fights by going to the ground but not being able to finish. Surely Cerrone could have avoided getting submitted, so... This should have been a walk for Cerrone, but he totally and utterly blew it. Brutal. (1-1)

Johny Hendricks def. Jon Fitch (KO 1)
Don't think anyone saw this coming. Hendrick is talented, but knocking out Fitch with his first punch? Not so much. Tough break for Fitch. This was obviously a fluke, but it still counts. Does it make Hendricks the #1 contender? Maybe. Not sure who else deserves it. Fitch would have been in that spot had he won, so... (1-2)

Alexander Gustafson def. Vladimir Matyushenko (KO 1)
Another quick one. Gustafson has power for a tall, lanky guy. Keep an eye on him. (2-2)

Jimy Hettes def. Nam Phan (unanimous)
Wow. Hettes dominated Phan and made him look like a child. I'm not sure Phan is a top guy, but Hettes certainly looked great. Multiple 10-8 rounds. Glad I picked him. (3-2)

Ross Pearson def. Junior Assuncao (unanimous)
Assuncao simply didn't show up. A poor performance. (3-3)

Danny Castillo def. Anthony Njokuani (split)
Takedowns won the day. Castillo didn't do much, just laid and prayed. Boring fight. (3-4)

Dong Hyun Kim def. Sean Pierson (unanimous)
Pierson is a nice guy, but perhaps not UFC calibre. Kim clearly won. (4-4)

Jacob Volkmann def. Efrain Escudero (unanimous)
Missed it. Looks like Volkmann dominated. (5-4)

Matthew Riddle vs Luis Ramos (welterweight)

This fight didn't happen as Riddle took ill just before the fight.

Diego Nunes def. Manny Gamburyan (unanimous)
Looks like Nunes dominated. (6-4)

Not the most entertaining night ever as lots of guys just didn't come prepared, it seemed. Lesnar, Cerrone, Assuncao just didn't have the right game plans.

UFC 141 Picks

Alright, quick and dirty. I'm on vacation and thinking hurts my brain.

Brock Lesnar vs Alistair Overeem (heavyweight)

Lesnar has very little chance in this one, I figure. Sure, he may get Overeem down and pound him, but I think it far more likely Overeem will punch Lesnar in the jaw and it'll be over. Overeem has way too much experience to get overwhelmed by Lesnar. I'm picking Overeem.

Nate Diaz vs Donald Cerrone (lightweight)

This could be a great scrap. I see Cerrone taking it though since he's the smarter fighter. A win here ought to put him in the title picture. An upset by Diaz would be huge for him, I think. I'm picking Cerrone.

Jon Fitch vs Johny Hendricks (welterweight)

The long layoff could really hurt Fitch in what ought to be a great fight. I like both of these guys, but Fitch is a machine. Assuming he comes back 100%, I think he gets the better of the very game Hendricks. I'm picking Fitch.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs Alexander Gustafson (light heavyweight)

Every time I count the Janitor out he surprises me. But Gustafson has a promising career ahead of him and this is a good test. I'm picking Gustafson.

Nam Phan vs Jimy Hettes (featherweight)

Jimy who? You might think that, but this guy is actually undefeated and is a submissions machine. Phan is decent but has flaws. He has way more experience but I'm gonna bet he underestimates his opponent and gets submitted. That's my upset special of the night. I'm picking Hettes.

Ross Pearson vs Junior Assuncao (featherweight)

I like Pearson and Asuncao has disappointed me in the past. But this is a featherweight fight. Pearson ought to have the standup advantage but if Assuncao can get this to the ground, he has a very good chance. This is a tough call. I'm gonna pick Assuncao in a bit of an upset.

Anthony Njokuani vs Danny Castillo (lightweight)

I'm getting tired. I'm picking Njokuani.

Dong Hyun Kim vs Sean Pierson (welterweight)

Hate going against the Canadian, but... I'm picking Kim.

Jacob Volkmann vs Efrain Escudero (lightweight)

Escudero has stumbled a bit since winning TUF8, even getting cut from the UFC. He is a replacement for an injured fighter in this one. Volkmann has disappointed me in the past. This is a matchup of wrestlers, but I could see Volkmann getting the submission. I'm picking Volkmann.

Matthew Riddle vs Luis Ramos (welterweight)

Ramos is essentially a nobody, but he has a better record than Riddle. With 3 losses in his last 5 fights, this could be do or die for Riddle in the UFC. I think he dies. I'm picking Ramos.

Manny Gamburyan vs Diego Nunes (featherweight)

Gamburyan lost my respect with that BS with Jeff Cox so I like it when he fights good fighters - it means I can pick against him. I'm picking Nunes.

UFC 127 Results

I missed this event, so I'm just going off reports and what I caught via the Interwebs.

BJ Penn vs Jon Fitch (majority draw)
Majority draw? What's up with that? Two had it 28-28, one had it 29-28. Was there really a 10-8 round for Penn? Probably not, which means two judges had it 29-28, really, for Penn, but since one round was 10-8 Fitch, it was 28-28. Ugh. (0-0-1)

Michael Bisping def. Jorge Rivera (TKO 2)
The only fight I did see. Hard to judge this one, 'cause there's no telling what impact that CRAZY illegal knee had on Rivera. He looked a little lost after that, just kinda winging his punches and not able to take the slightest abuse. Bisping isn't known for his power and yet he had Rivera wilting easily. Wonder what the docs thought of his condition. (0-1-1)

Dennis Siver def. George Sotiropoulos (TKO 2)
Bugger. George had little to gain and much to lose in this fight. And he lost. Bad first round cost him. (0-2-1)

Brian Ebersole def. Chris Lytle (unanimous)
Lytle couldn't finish him, so he lost yet another decision. (0-3-1)

Kyle Noke def. Chris Camozzi (sub 1)
Didn't see it. (1-3-1)

Ross Pearson def. Spencer Fisher (unanimous)
Gotta wonder if Spencer has lost a step. Bit of a surprise that the vet got beat. (1-4-1)

Alexander Gustafsson def. James Te Huna def. (sub 1)
Gustafsson impresses again. Bit of a mismatch, really. (2-4-1)

Nick Ring def. Riki Fukuda (unanimous)
Ring is good enough to finish guys. He needs to do that to stick around and get noticed. (3-4-1)

Anthony Perosh def. Tom Blackledge (sub 1)
Another quick one for Perosh. (4-4-1)

Tiequan Zhang def. Jason Reinhardt (sub 1)
Is Reinhardt a choker? Crazy good record, but loses both of his UFC fights in lightning quick submissions. WTFH? (4-5-1)

Mark Hunt def. Chris Tuchscherer (KO 2)
Maybe I didn't give Hunt enough props. Dominated the tough guy. (4-6-1)

Curt Warburton def. Maciej Jewtuszko (unanimous)
Stats tell a different story. Strange. (4-7-1)

Ugh. Crappy record.

UFC 127 Penn vs Fitch Picks

In a bit of a hurry, so gonna have to make this quick.

BJ Penn vs Jon Fitch (welterweight)
I honestly don't know how Penn earned this number one contender's fight. He loses to GSP and Hughes, drops to lightweight, gets another crack at GSP for some bizarro reason, gets slaughtered, loses his lightweight title to Frankie Edgar, loses AGAIN to Edgar to prove it wasn't a fluke, moves back up to welterweight and beats Hughes - a fighter who can't seem to beat any top ten fighter these days - and he gets this fight as a reward? WTF? How about beating some real fighters first? Fitch, meanwhile, has stayed in the top 5, beaten tough guys, but still hasn't earned a rematch with GSP, probably because he got smoked the last time out. Since losing to GSP, he has beaten Thiago Alves, Paulo Thiago, Ben Saunders and Mike Pierce. Penn has beaten Hughes. WTF? If Penn wins, he theoretically gets GSP for a third time (though that won't happen, whether GSP wins or loses). Penn getting a shot only makes sense if GSP beats Jake Shields, moves up to middleweight and vacates the belt. THEN a victorious Penn might deserve to fight for the title against...uh...who? Penn might jab Fitch to death the way GSP did, but if Fitch fights smart, he'll take this to the ground and wear Penn out. I'm picking Fitch.

Michael Bisping vs Jorge Rivera (middleweight)
Two fighters who have never really been to the top of the middleweight heap. Bisping hasn't improved all that much since his UFC debut. He still has no KO power to speak of, relying on a quick pace to get him through his fights. This is usually accomplished by running backwards and getting decisions. Rivera, on the other hand, is on his way up in the twilight of his career. A top guy? No, not really, but dangerous. If Rivera catches Bisping, it may end quick. If Bisping can keep his distance and fight his usual fight, he could get the decision. I'm gonna go with the upset and pick Rivera.

George Sotiropoulos vs Dennis Siver (lightweight)
This is a step back for George. He deserves to be ranked higher than Siver, which means he probably has more to lose than to gain from this fight. If he can submit Siver quickly, maybe he gets more respect from the match makers. I'm picking Sotiropoulos.

Chris Lytle vs Brian Ebersole (welterweight)
Lytle's original opponent (highly-touted Carlos Condit) had to back out, so in steps the experienced but relatively unknown Ebersole. Ebersole's biggest win may have been his recent decision nod over former UFC champ Carlos Newton; not exactly a top dog these days. He seems like a relatively dangerous fighter with submission skills, but I'm still picking Lytle.

Kyle Noke vs Chris Camozzi (middleweight)
A TUF reunion. Camozzi has a decent record, but Noke has fought tougher guys. He holds a win over George Sotiropoulos (a loss, too) and Brian Ebersole who is fighting Lytle. I'm picking Noke.

Ross Pearson vs Spencer Fisher (lightweight)
This could be fun. Pearson has done well, but Fisher is a tough test. Fisher has had a tough time recently, it seems, but is coming off a win, whereas Pearson is coming off a loss. Fisher lost to Siver, while Pearson beat him. Toss up. I feel a war coming, with a decision in the balance... I'm picking Fisher.

James Te Huna vs Alexander Gustafsson (light heavyweight)
Gustafsson is super dangerous, having only lost to Phil Davis by choke (no shame there). Otherwise, he destroys guys in the first or second round. Te Huna is decent, too, but hasn't faced anyone tough. I'm picking Gustafsson.

Nick Ring vs Riki Fukuda (middleweight)
Gotta go with the Canadian in this one. I'm picking Ring.

Anthony Perosh vs Tom Blackledge (light heavyweight)
Who? Both are 10-6. Perosh is a BJJ guy who wins or loses fast, Blackledge is a banger who wins or loses fast. I've heard of Perosh. I'll pick Perosh.

Tiequan Zhang vs Jason Reinhardt (featherweight)
The lighter boys. Reinhardt was undefeated until he fought Joe Lauzon at lightweight in his UFC debut. Tough start. ALL of his wins were in the FIRST ROUND. Wow. Zhang is 12-1 with some WEC experience. I like Reinhardt, so I'll pull for him.

Mark Hunt vs Chris Tuchscherer (heavyweight)
BIG boys. Chris has a good record, but, from what I understand, ought to be 0-3 in the UFC, what with his controversial win over Tim Hague. Hunt is coming off 6 straight losses (against some top Strikeforce guys, mind you) but SOMEHOW is getting a UFC spot. WTF? Oh...he's from New Zealand and the card is in Australia. See, this is where the UFC gets itself in trouble. Hunt has NO BUSINESS on this card. The UFC promotes itself as the best of the best and they bring in this guy? I call bullshit. I'm picking Tuchscherer.

Maciej Jewtuszko vs Curt Warburton (lightweight)
Who? MJ is a tough dude with an unblemished record. CW is a British banger who can knock you out, but has been submitte din less than a minute. I'm picking Jewtusko.

And I'm outta here!

UFC 117 Results

Yup. It lived up to the hype. Damn, 'cause I missed it. Caught some fights on the interwebs after, but it's not the same. My social life is killing me!

Anderson Silva vs Chael Sonnen (middleweight)
I cannot BELIEVE Sonnen blew this. He was kicking Silva's ass for 23 minutes and then gets caught with a punch to the face and a triangle choke? Are you kidding me? Dude. The f**k? I don't care if Silva had rib issues. That doesn't explain getting punched and knocked down. It doesn't explain getting taken down with double legs repeatedly. Styles make fights and I've long said the style to beat Silva is wrestling. Sonnen had all the tools but had a brain fart and kissed it away. (1-0)

Jon Fitch vs Thiago Alves II (welterweight)
Fitch proved once again that he's a level above Alves. After the long lay off, Alves wasn't ready or qualified to take a #1 contender's fight. (2-0)

Clay Guida vs Rafael Dos Anjos (lightweight)
Too bad Dos Anjos broke his jaw. Still, it looked like Guida was in control. (3-0)

Matt Hughes vs Ricardo Almeida (welterweight)
Hughes caught Almeida with a nice punch and Almeida couldn't recover. Otherwise, no way he gets submitted by Hughes. Too bad it didn't last longer. It didn't really answer any of the questions going in. (3-1)

Roy Nelson vs Junior Dos Santos (heavyweight)
I said Dos Santos would need to box his way to a decision and he did. Nelson took some serious shots and held his own against a recognized contender. I picked the upset, but it didn't quite pan out. (3-2)

Dustin Hazelett vs Rick Story (welterweight)
Story has been looking good. Too bad for Hazelett. (4-2)

Phil Davis vs Rodney Wallace (light heavyweight)
Davis is awesome. Too bad I missed it. (5-2)

Tim Boetsch vs Todd Brown (heavyweight)
Picking the Canadian paid off for once - besides GSP, of course. (6-2)

Johny Hendricks vs Charlie Brenneman (welterweight)
Missed it. Hendricks needs some tougher opponents. (7-2)

Stefan Struve vs Christian Morecraft (heavyweight)
Struve was in trouble until Morecraft decided to get into a jab fest with a guy with crazy long arms. Bad idea. (8-2)

Wow: 8-2. Not bad at all. Had I gone with the favourites in those two matches I would have had the perfect night. Bring on the next PPV! (and let's hope I get to see it!!)

UFC 117 Silva v Sonnen Picks

Gonna be busy the next couple of days. Better get my picks in quick:

Anderson Silva vs Chael Sonnen (middleweight)
Much as I would love to see Sonnen win (or, rather, Silva lose), I just don't see it happening. Can Sonnen really lay and pray for FIVE rounds against Silva? I don't see it. I'm picking Silva.

Jon Fitch vs Thiago Alves II (welterweight)
Again? Has Alves earned it? I dunno. Seems to me Fitch is the real #1 contender in the division but considering he got hammered by GSP, it's tough to match him up with anyone. I think the obvious match is Fitch vs Jake Shields for the #1 spot, but it seems the UFC doesn't wanna run the risk of missing out on the anticipated GSP-Shields fight down the road. I'm picking Fitch again.

Clay Guida vs Rafael Dos Anjos (lightweight)
Could be exciting. Guida is a cardio machine. If this guy is high on life alone, he should be studied by scientists. I can see Guida smothering this guy and not getting submitted. I'm picking Guida.

Matt Hughes vs Ricardo Almeida (welterweight)
This is the fight I want to see. Is Hughes done? Having him fight Gracie wasn't gonna answer that question. But if he beats a real fighter like Alemeida then you have to put him back in the title mix. I'm gonna go against the grain and pick Almeida by decision.

Roy Nelson vs Junior Dos Santos (heavyweight)
Another great fight. Dos Santos is awesome, but Nelson is the Blob. Can Dos Santos avoid getting smothered and can he KO the Burger King? I think this is a tough one for Dos Santos. Nelson will be hungrier than usual 'cause a win here puts him in the title hunt for sure. Dos Santos will have to box and hope for a decision. Strange as it seems, I'm picking Nelson.

Dustin Hazelett vs Rick Story (welterweight)
I like both of these fighters. Story is more well-rounded, though and might be able to take down Hazelett while avoiding submissions. I'm picking Story.

Phil Davis vs Rodney Wallace (light heavyweight)
I can't believe I might miss this event... This could be another good one. Fireworks. Davis is incredible. I can't go against him. I'm picking Davis.

Tim Boetsch vs Todd Brown (heavyweight)
I don't know anything about Brown and don't have tie to look him up. I'm picking the Canadian - Boetsch.

Johny Hendricks vs Charlie Brenneman (welterweight)
Crazy card. Hendricks in a dark match? The guy is great. Don't know much about Brenneman. I'm picking Hendricks.

Stefan Struve vs Christian Morecraft (heavyweight)
Struve is a giant, but Morecraft is a big guy, too. Morecraft has a good record with quick finishes. Struve has a history of either winning, or losing by KO early. Just what Morecraft wants. I don't live Struve's chances, but maybe the UFC lights will intimidate Morecraft. I'll pick Struve by submission.

Wicked card. Let's hope it lives up to the hype.

UFC 111 Results - Oh, and Boston Pizza Sucks

UFC 111 is in the books.

I tried to watch it with friends at the local Boston Pizza, but when fight time came, the signal was lost as if they’d never ordered it. The crowd was not happy. The manager assured us it would start momentarily and that other bars were in the same boat, but that was a bold faced lie. After 45 minutes we left (paying full price for our order, no less!) and booked it to my place to order it in. Turned out to be a better night that way anyways. F*ck you very much, Boston Pizza. You’ve lost my business for good, along with many fight fans in the Yonge & Eglinton neighbourhood, I imagine. Hope it was worth it to ya.

So, let’s review, shall we?

Georges St-Pierre def. Dan Hardy (unanimous) – This was a compete mismatch and highlighted why Hardy was not quite ready for prime time. The UFC clearly erred in giving the Brit a title shot before he was anywhere near ready. Sure, he may have punching power which was displayed in so-so wins, but he has no real ground game and he’s nowhere near GSP’s class. Hardy needs to measure himself against the likes of Fitch, Alves and Koscheck before he can lay claim to the #1 contender’s spot. GSP dominated from beginning to end. I can’t believe the judges did not score more 10-8 rounds. Give Hardy credit for not tapping out to a couple of sick submissions. In the end, he may have gained more fans as a result, but the night suffered for it. The result was never in doubt. (1-0)

Shane Carwin def. Frank Mir (KO 1) – Is Mir all talk? Sure, he beat a sick Nogueira and a lackluster Kongo, but despite all of his posturing he can’t seem to win when it matters most. I really thought he’d put in a better performance, but Carwin relied on the tried and true Lesnar playbook and beat Mir with some wrestling and ground and pound. I’m glad Carwin pulled it off so that we don’t have to see Lesnar-Mir III. Carwin came out unscathed, so we will likely see him face Lesnar in June. That leaves Cain Velasquez without a dance partner. Personally, I hope that means we’ll see Velasquez vs Dos Santos to see who gets the next title shot. (2-0)

Kurt Pellegrino def. Fabricio Camoes (sub 2) – I was a bit distracted during this fight, so I can’t recall too much of it. I don’t recall this fight turning my crank. There was one cool moment, though, when Pellegrino, fighting off a rear naked choke, did a front summersault and slammed Camoes’ head on the mat. I thought Camoes was going to go out right then and there, but he showed some heart and fought his way back into the match before finally getting submitted. (3-0)

Jon Fitch def. Been Saunders (unanimous) – This was one of the fights we missed thanks to Boston Pizza’s incompetence. Sounds like it wasn’t close, with Fitch keeping Saunders on the ground most of the fight. Predictable. (4-0)

Jim Miller def. Mark Bocek (lightweight) – We missed this fight too. I hear this one was close, with some thinking Bocek was robbed. (4-1)

Nate Diaz def. Rory Markham (TKO 1) – Not sure what happened with Markham but this was not an impressive performance. I’m shocked Diaz was able to overwhelm Markham so easily on the feet since he was coming up from lightweight and is still not a big guy. I’m still not convinced Diaz will find much success at 170, but he sure looked good on Saturday. (4-2)

Ricardo Almeida def. Matt Brown (sub 2) – Brown held his own for a while, but in the end, Almeida’s wrestling and jiu-jitsu were simply too good. Brown can turn in some exciting fights when it stays on the feet, but his ground game is clearly a weakness. (5-2)

Jared Hamman def. Rodney Wallace (unanimous) – Ths was a bit of a ugly slugfest. Entertaining, sure, but hardly top calibre stuff. Both fighters blew up early and were fist-swinging zombies by the end. Wallace seemed more tired, though, and likely lost the decision as a result. (6-2)

Matthew Riddle def. Greg Soto (DQ 3) – I’m glad Riddle got the win, though I pegged his opponent to get the decision. It seems there was an illegal upkick (?) in this one that halted the action in the third and prompted the DQ. It seems Riddle was leading the fight at the time, so it isn’t as controversial as it might have been. Still, a bad win to decide a fight. (6-3)

Oops…Looks like I missed a fight somehow(?).

Rousimar Palhares def. Tomasz Drwal (sub 1) – I’m fairly certain I would have picked Palhares in this one, but we won’t count that. Palhares looked awesome as he locked in a sick heel hook after knocking Drwal down. Not since Andrei Arlovski have I seen a guy go for that move as his first option. It was a bit bizarre, and very risky, but it worked – and I don’t think Drwal will be walking around for a while.

So 6-3 on the fights I picked. Not bad at all. Seems my luck is turning around.

The busy month continues as this Wednesday features another Fight Night Live and the debut of the new season of The Ultimate Fighter. Sweet.

Stay tuned for picks.

UFC 111 GSP vs Hardy Picks

UFC 111 takes place in Newark, NJ on Saturday. It features two title fights (kinda) and some sleeper fights in the undercard.

Let’s break it down:

Georges St-Pierre vs Dan Hardy (welterweight) – Hardy has a puncher’s chance. That’s it. GSP so ridiculously outclasses Hardy it isn’t funny. No way Hardy deserves this title shot, since he hasn’t fought anybody in the top five of the welterweight division. How do you get a title fight without fighting Fitch, Alves or even Koscheck? Hardy (barely) beat Marcus Davis (split decision) who, despite an 11-fight winning streak, appeared nowhere on the UFC’s title radar, and Mike Swick who hadn’t fought any tough guys himself. This is the sort of thing that makes you wonder about the UFC’s match making. Is Hardy getting the shot because of who he is (a colourful character) or what he is (a true contender – which he isn’t)? Still, Hardy has a chance of winning. Anybody can win on any given day. The point is, if he wins, has he earned it? I don’t think so. It’ll be Matt Serra all over again, with people salivating at the chance to un-seat Hardy who has shown no ground game. I think GSP ought to win, and I really, really hope he does since it would be a shame to repeat the Serra fiasco.

Frank Mir vs Shane Carwin (heavyweight) – Shane Carwin is a nice guy. He is also undefeated at 11-0. Good for him. But he is another guy who simply has not earned his shot. Who has he beaten? Gabriel Gonzaga? Great. Nice job. But Gonzaga was winning that fight and Gonzaga isn’t exactly setting the UFC on fire with losses to Randy Couture, Fabricio Werdum and Junior Dos Santos. Is Gonzaga really the guy that is the benchmark for heavyweight title contenders? I don’t think so. But that just goes to show how thin the heavyweight division has become. Get one big win and you’re in title contention. Why is the UFC bothering with this interim title crap if Lesnar is back? When his health was in doubt, ok, it made sense. But now? In the end, this fight is exactly what it should be – a contender’s fight. Whoever wins is probably deserving of a shot – at least, more deserving than they are now. Do we really wan to see Lesnar-Mir III, though? That would account for half of Lesnar’s matches… As for the fight at hand, I think Mir will win, but I’d like to see Carwin pull it off, so I’ll bet on Carwin.

Kurt Pellegrino vs Fabricio Camoes (lightweight) – Why is this fight on the main card? I’ve never been a big fan of Pellegrino and who the hell is Camoes? There are better fights on the card. Camoes makes his UFC debut, while Pellegrino is 6-3 in the UFC. Both of these guys tend to win by submission, with Pellegrino having more experience and tougher fights. I’ll pick Pellegrino.

Jon Fitch vs Been Saunders (welterweight) – Thiago Alves had to pull out of his rematch with Fitch (again) due to injury (again). So instead, we get Saunders who was supposed to fight Jake Ellenberger (I guess the UFC really wanted Fitch on the card) and is coming off a devastating win over Marcus Davis. Saunders is a nice guy and is obviously talented, but he’s out of his league with Fitch. Fitch is unstoppable and has a crazy record; his only loss in his last 20 fights was to GSP and while the champ pushed him around for five rounds, Fitch refused to quit. Although Fitch hasn’t prepared for Saunders (who has a completely different style than Alves) I’ll pick Fitch.

Jim Miller vs Mark Bocek (lightweight) – Both of these guys are impressive and both have lost to Frank Edgar (no shame there). Both seem to like submissions. Tough one to call. I’ll cheer for the Canadian, I guess: Bocek.

Nate Diaz vs Rory Markham (welterweight) – Diaz makes his debut at 170, which to me is an odd move (although, having lost 3 of 4, perhaps he was hoping the move would extend his life span in the UFC). It seems to me his style is much better suited to lightweight, where his reach was formidable. At 170 he’ll be facing even stronger guys who will be able to lay and pray. Diaz’s weak point is clearly his game plans. He either needs a new coach or he needs to smarten up. You can’t win if you stay on your back unless you submit your opponent. Markham is a KO specialist who will try to keep this one on its feet. Look for Diaz’s chin to be tested. I’ll pick Markham if he can keep this on its feet.

Ricardo Almeida vs Matt Brown (welterweight) – Almeida is making his debut at 170 as well. He’s a talented guy, but has gone to decision a few too many times for my liking. Not sure why he’s dropping down in weight when the middleweight division seems so thin. I like Brown but he is susceptible to submissions, which happens to be Almeida’s specialty. Anybody who can submit Nate Marquardt is impressive. I don’t like Brown’s chances. I’ll pick Almeida.

Rodney Wallace vs Jared Hamman (light heavyweight) – Who? Two former football players with similar records, both coming off losses in their UFC debuts. Wallace tends to go to decision while Hamman knocks guys out quick. I’ll pick Hamman.

Matthew Riddle vs Greg Soto (welterweight) – Another welterweight fight. Soto will be the hometown favourite in his UFC debut. He has a better record and more experience than Riddle who has shown some promise. I don’t like Riddle’s chances, though I’ll secretly be cheering for him. My head says Soto.

Man, I hope GSP is still champ come Monday…

UFC 107 Results - Penn survives the Nightmare

Alright, kiddies, let's see how it all went down:

BJ Penn def Diego Sanchez (TKO 5) - If you had told me that BJ would TKO Sanchez in round 5 I would have told you you were nuts. This seemed to be the least likely scenario based on BJ's gas tank and Diego's determination. But since it was a DOCTOR's stoppage, I understand. That was a crazy gash on Diego's forehead. I'm glad BJ was winning handily at the time or it might have been tragic. I didn't see the event, so I can't comment on how Diego was doing, but I understand BJ had things well in hand at that point. In the end, perhaps the fact that it was Diego's first fve rounder caught up to him a little, but a three rounder would have had the same result - BJ is still the champ. It appears that BJ was most impressive on Saturday. I'm somewhat surprised he was as effective as he was, even in rounds four and five. Good for him. As for Diego, this is his first loss in a while and he still has an incredible record and great potential, so we may see him back in the title mix soon. (0-1)

Frank Mir def Cheick Kongo (sub 1) - This appears to have been a non-fight. Was MIr that impressive or did Kongo suck that badly? I've never been all that impressed by Kongo, and have long felt he was overrated by the UFC, but what are you going to do with a depleted heavyweight division? Mir looked huge and is clearly hoping for Mir-Lesnar 3. He may never get it, based on health reports from the Lesnar camp, but he may get his shot at an interim title in the coming months. Look for him to take on the winner of Carwin-Velasquez. (1-1)

Jon Fitch def Mike Pierce (unanimous) - No big surprise, other than perhaps the fact that it went the distance. This is the problem with many of Fitch's recent fights. He needs to finish more. This doesn't appear to be the kind of fight that puts him back in title contention. (2-1)

Kenny Florian def Clay Guida - Wish I had seen this. Looks like the gash that Florian opened up on the side of Guida's head really made the difference. Guida was bleeding like a stuck pig. I'm shocked that Guida was stopped so easily. (2-2)

Stefan Struve def Paul Buentello (majority) - Looks like this was a close fight - perhaps closer than it ought to have been given that Struve apparently put it in cruise control late in the fight. I think the surprising thing was that Struve stood and banged it out with Buentello. I'm glad Struve won (a rare majority decision thanks to one 28-28 score). He seems to be a good kid. I doubt he'll go too far with his lankiness, but he makes for a fun fight to watch. (3-2)

Alan Belcher def Wilson Gouveia (TKO 1) - A bit of a surprising result (the quickness of it). Not sure where this leaves Gouveia. (4-2)

Matt Wiman def Shane Nelson (unanimous) - I hope both fighters impressed, but considering it went to decision... (5-2)

Johny Hendricks def Ricardo Funch (unanimous) - Another decision. Hendricks is still undefeated, so I wonder if he'll go up in competition. Watch out for this guy. (6-2)

Rousimar Palhares def Lucio Linhares (sub 2) - Palhares is a freak. If he can get by against bigger opponents watch out. He's dangerous. I'd like to see this one, just to see how he pulled off the heel hook. (7-2)

DeMarques Johnson def Edgar Garcia (sub 1) - Johnson pulled it off. Garcia dropped his second straight UFC fight, the only two blemishes on his record. Losing in the first round by submission never looks good. Wonder if we'll see this kid again. (7-3)

TJ Grant def Kevin Burns (TKO 1) - Nice to see the Canadian win. First round TKO makes it pretty impressive. Knockout of the Night? Doubly impressive. This ought to get him on another UFC card soon. (8-3)

Whoa: 8-3! That's pretty impressive, too! And had I picked the favourites in KenFLo and BJ I would have been almost perfect. Now we have a bit of a layoff (3 weeks is a layoff?!) before UFC 108 pits Rashad Evans against Thiago Silva on an otherwise less than impressive card.

Happy holidays.

UFC 107 Predictions

Another week, another UFC event - this time on PPV - and yet again, I'm gonna miss it. This time, even TiVo won't save me. F*ck!

It's shaping up to be a good one, too. And with the health of most elite UFC fighters these days being fragile at best, it may be the best collection of fights we'll see for a while.

Ok, my picks:

BJ Penn vs Diego Sanchez

Am I the only one who gives Sanchez even odds in this fight? Sanchez ought to be the bigger, stronger fighter and he has a wide range of skills, much like Penn. He's no rookie, either, and aside from a bad health stretch a while back, his record is pretty much spotless. He could have easily been undefeated at this point. Yet people seem to think he's a ridiculous underdog in this fight. Ridiculous? Maybe. Underdog? Not by much. If this fight goes into the third round and beyond, Sanchez's odds of winning increase exponentially. Sanchez doesn't seem to tire and Penn still has an anemic gas tank as we saw with GSP. I think Penn is the smarter fighter and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he gets a decision (I can't see him finishing Sanchez), but I'm gonna go balls out and pick Sanchez to pull off the "upset" and become the new lightweight champ.

Frank Mir vs Cheick Kongo

Kongo could lay and pray all night and try to blast Mir like Lesnar did, but I don't see it. I think Kongo will try to stand all night while Mir will be desperate to get this fight to the ground. If it does go to the mat, look for Mir to secure a submission. Otherwise, this could turn out to be yet another boring Kongo dance. I'm pulling for Mir.

Jon Fitch vs Mike Pierce

Pierce seems ok, but I don't think too many fighters are in Fitch's class. I think this fight will get Fitch back into contention and possibly set up a Fitch-Koschceck #1 contender's fight to face the GSP-Hardy winner.

Kenny Florian vs Clay Guida

A potential fight of the night battle between two guys who like to go and try to finish fights. Guida is a freak of nature with his cardio, so Florian will have his hands full. It's almost impossible to knock Guida out, so Florian will likely try to work the submissions, likely from the bottom as Guida uses his wrestling skills. I don't like Florian's odds in this one. I could see Guida getting the decision. Sorry, KenFlo.

Paul Buentello vs Stefan Struve

Buentello returns to the UFC. Can't say I was a fan of his the first time around. He was famously knocked out by Andrei Arlovski. Struve will have his usual massive height and reach advantage, so it'll be interesting to see if Buentello can get inside and use his power - otherwise, he's screwed. I could see Struve wearing Buentello out, and securing a submission in the third round. I'll pick him.

Alan Belcher vs Wilson Gouveia - Two guys who tend not to impress but somehow manage to get wins when you least expect them. Not sure who to pick here. Belcher works hard, at least, whereas Gouveia seems to fluke out knockouts. I'll pick...Belcher?

Matt Wiman vs Shane Nelson - I'm a fan of Wiman's so I'd like to see him get back on the winning track. Three losses in a row could be the end of him. I'll pick Wiman.

Johny Hendricks vs Ricardo Funch - Hendricks is good and Funch is a nobody who has fought no one of consequence. I'll take the experienced guy.

Rousimar Palhares vs Lucio Linhares - Palhares is awesome but needs to drop a weight class. He's too small at middleweight. He'll be six inches shorter than his opponent. Still, I'll pick him for fun.

DeMarques Johnson vs Edgar Garcia - Johnson didn't exactly overwhelm me with his talent on TUF, so I'll go with the darkhorse Garcia who will have something to prove after dropping his UFC debut (his only MMA loss).

Kevin Burns vs TJ Grant - Can't go against the Canadian in a toss up fight. I'll pick Grant.

I look forward to reading the results... *sigh*

UFC 100 - Results

Ok, let's see how I did...

Lesnar def. Mir - I picked Mir 'cause I figured he'd withstand the initial attack, better than he did last time. Well, I guess that didn't happen. I'm glad Lesnar won, but man he was a douche afterwards. Glad he apologized in the press conference. Props to Dana White for taking him to task. Lesnar can now play the villain champ, which will be good for UFC PPV buys - everyone will wanna see him lose. I picked wrong (0-1), but my fav won.

GSP def. Thiago Alves - Not a close fight. GSP dominated from the opening bell. He was on his back for about a minute only because he gave up position while going for a submission. Let's hope his injury isn't serious. I picked right (1-1).

Henderson def. Bisping - It went the way I thougth it would, aside from Bisping getting clobbered. Bisping inexplicably kept circling to the left, putting him in range of Henderson's killer right. That was certainly a highligh reel knockout. Was the follow-up shot overdoing it? Dunno. Sure, he could have pulle dup, but at least it was one shot, not the 5-10 some guys throw in after the guy is out. This is a serious speed bump in Bisping's title journey. Picked wrong, though I waffled back and forth and actually changed my pick at the last minute (1-2).

Fitch def. Thiago - Not a great fight. Fitch looked pretty good, but not as stellar as we've seen recently. He'll have to put together a few wins if he wants another title shot against GSP, who smoked his ass. Picked right (2-2).

Akiyama def. Belcher - I went back and forth on this one and changed my vote at the last minute. After doing some research, I figured Akiyama was overhyped and Belcher would squeeze it out with experience. It looked that way in the ring, too. Akiyama won the second round for sure, but I felt he lost the third and the first was a toss-up. Belcher and the announcers clearly thought Belcher had won. It suited UFC's purposes to see the new star, Akiyama, get the nod and he did. This may have been an example of reputation getting the edge. How one judge saw it 30-27 is beyond me. Picked wrong (2-3).

Coleman def. Bonnar - I have to see this to believe it. Bonnar ought to be let go from the UFC after this. He clearly is not improving, unlike other TUF alumni like Griffin and Evans. Picked wrong (2-4).

Miller def. Danzig - Wanna see this one too. Danzig is in trouble and may see his UFC career end prematurely. He's had tough bouts, but he hasn't impressed. Picked right (3-4).

Jones def. O'Brien - This guy is one to watch. Too bad we didn't get to. Picked right (4-4).

Kim def. Grant - Too bad the Canadian lost. Picked right (5-4).

Lawlor def. Dollaway - Yet another where I changed my vote at the last minute and paid for it. Definitely wanna see this. Dollaway is on his way out. Picked wrong (5-5).

Gugerty def. Grice - Grice was pissed after this one. Picked right (6-5).

So 2-3 on the main card (should have been 4-1) and 4-2 on the undercard. Not too bad, but no one's hiring me as an analyst at this rate!

Next up: Griffin vs. Silva and Penn vs. Florian. Ought to be interesting!

UFC 100 - Predictions

Brock Lesnar vs Frank Mir (heavyweight)

Lesnar has to learn how to finish. He can be overwhelming early, but if he has to go 25 minutes with Mir, odds are good Mir will find a way to submit the big man somehow. Mir won’t be surprised by Lesnar’s speed and power again, and ought to be able to weather the early storm.

My money’s on: Mir. I like Lesnar and hope he wins, but I just think Mir is smart enough to find some way to submit the monster.

Georges St. Pierre vs Thiago Alves (welterweight)

This ought to be interesting. Alves is powerful and that’s usually GSP’s game. GSP will use his reach and boxing to keep Thiago at bay and then maybe throw him on his ass when he has the advantage. It’ll be interesting to see if Thiago can take GSP down.

My money’s on: GSP. No way I bet against him. He’s too smart and too good. He only loses by fluke.

Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping (middleweight)

This could have been a main event fight, but with this being UFC 100, well… This is of course the Ultimate Fighter coaches match. Team UK clearly won the show, but who will win the final battle? Henderson is the vet but he really hasn’t been very impressive since coming over from Pride where he was a champ in two weight classes.

My money’s on: Bisping. I’ve been back and forth on this one. I think Henderson would have won if he were 5 years younger, but he just seems to have lost a step. I see Bisping winning a decision if it stays on the feet. Could be a pretty boring fight. Hope I’m wrong.

John Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago (welterweight)

I don’t know too much about Thiago, but Fitch is a beast. He was humbled by GSP, but who hasn’t been recently?

My money’s on: Fitch. He’s a warrior.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Alan Belcher (middleweight)

Akiyama has an impressive record, but Belcher has been the guy in the UFC trenches. He also enjoys a significant size advantage. The UFC will want Akiyama to get the nod so that they can start building him up. Both have beaten Denis Kang, which is no small feat.

My money’s on: Belcher. It’s about time he stepped up and lived up to the rep.

UNDERCARD

Mark Coleman vs. Stephan Bonnar (light heavyweight) - If Bonnar doesn’t win, he ought to quit. I mean, come on, Coleman? He’s ancient! I’m picking Bonnar. Could be a war.

Mac Danzig vs. Jim Miller (lightweight) – Danzig had momentum coming off the TUF win, but he’s been less than stellar since, to be honest. I’ll pick Miller.

Jon Jones vs. Jake O’Brien (light heavyweight) – Both have had impressive outings. I’ll go with the Martian Manhunter – Jones.

Dong Hyun Kim vs. TJ Grant (welterweight) – Don’t know too much about these guys, but Kim has been impressive and is undefeated. Anyone who can go to a split decision with Karo Parisyan deserves respect. I’ll pick Kim, even though Grant is Canadian.

CB Dollaway vs. Tom Lawlor (middleweight) – Features two TUF grads. On paper, Dollaway ought to be favoured, but he usually finds a way to make fights closer than they ought to be. Lawlor wasn’t impressive on the show. I’ll pick Dollaway in this one.

Matt Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty (lightweight) – Don’t know these guys. Normally I’d go with the height advantage or better record, but they’re not that different. Grice’s UFC results aren’t very impressive while Gugerty went almost three rounds with Spencer Fisher. I’ll take Gugerty.