UFC 141 Results

Alistair Overeem def. Brock Lesnar (TKO 1)
Not sure what Brock's game plan was. He made one half-assed attempt at a takedown, but otherwise stood with the striker and paid for it. Brock can't take a punch, we all know that, but apparently the kicks were too much to handle as well. Didn't necessarily make Overeem look good, but we'll find out soon enough when he fights Junior Dos Santos for the belt. (1-0)

Nate Diaz def. Donald Cerrone (unanimous)
W.T.F....? What was Cerrone thinking? He took out Diaz's legs numerous times but refused to go to the ground with the BJJ guy. Was he THAT afraid? Or was he just pig-headed? Diaz has lost numerous fights by going to the ground but not being able to finish. Surely Cerrone could have avoided getting submitted, so... This should have been a walk for Cerrone, but he totally and utterly blew it. Brutal. (1-1)

Johny Hendricks def. Jon Fitch (KO 1)
Don't think anyone saw this coming. Hendrick is talented, but knocking out Fitch with his first punch? Not so much. Tough break for Fitch. This was obviously a fluke, but it still counts. Does it make Hendricks the #1 contender? Maybe. Not sure who else deserves it. Fitch would have been in that spot had he won, so... (1-2)

Alexander Gustafson def. Vladimir Matyushenko (KO 1)
Another quick one. Gustafson has power for a tall, lanky guy. Keep an eye on him. (2-2)

Jimy Hettes def. Nam Phan (unanimous)
Wow. Hettes dominated Phan and made him look like a child. I'm not sure Phan is a top guy, but Hettes certainly looked great. Multiple 10-8 rounds. Glad I picked him. (3-2)

Ross Pearson def. Junior Assuncao (unanimous)
Assuncao simply didn't show up. A poor performance. (3-3)

Danny Castillo def. Anthony Njokuani (split)
Takedowns won the day. Castillo didn't do much, just laid and prayed. Boring fight. (3-4)

Dong Hyun Kim def. Sean Pierson (unanimous)
Pierson is a nice guy, but perhaps not UFC calibre. Kim clearly won. (4-4)

Jacob Volkmann def. Efrain Escudero (unanimous)
Missed it. Looks like Volkmann dominated. (5-4)

Matthew Riddle vs Luis Ramos (welterweight)

This fight didn't happen as Riddle took ill just before the fight.

Diego Nunes def. Manny Gamburyan (unanimous)
Looks like Nunes dominated. (6-4)

Not the most entertaining night ever as lots of guys just didn't come prepared, it seemed. Lesnar, Cerrone, Assuncao just didn't have the right game plans.

UFC 141 Picks

Alright, quick and dirty. I'm on vacation and thinking hurts my brain.

Brock Lesnar vs Alistair Overeem (heavyweight)

Lesnar has very little chance in this one, I figure. Sure, he may get Overeem down and pound him, but I think it far more likely Overeem will punch Lesnar in the jaw and it'll be over. Overeem has way too much experience to get overwhelmed by Lesnar. I'm picking Overeem.

Nate Diaz vs Donald Cerrone (lightweight)

This could be a great scrap. I see Cerrone taking it though since he's the smarter fighter. A win here ought to put him in the title picture. An upset by Diaz would be huge for him, I think. I'm picking Cerrone.

Jon Fitch vs Johny Hendricks (welterweight)

The long layoff could really hurt Fitch in what ought to be a great fight. I like both of these guys, but Fitch is a machine. Assuming he comes back 100%, I think he gets the better of the very game Hendricks. I'm picking Fitch.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs Alexander Gustafson (light heavyweight)

Every time I count the Janitor out he surprises me. But Gustafson has a promising career ahead of him and this is a good test. I'm picking Gustafson.

Nam Phan vs Jimy Hettes (featherweight)

Jimy who? You might think that, but this guy is actually undefeated and is a submissions machine. Phan is decent but has flaws. He has way more experience but I'm gonna bet he underestimates his opponent and gets submitted. That's my upset special of the night. I'm picking Hettes.

Ross Pearson vs Junior Assuncao (featherweight)

I like Pearson and Asuncao has disappointed me in the past. But this is a featherweight fight. Pearson ought to have the standup advantage but if Assuncao can get this to the ground, he has a very good chance. This is a tough call. I'm gonna pick Assuncao in a bit of an upset.

Anthony Njokuani vs Danny Castillo (lightweight)

I'm getting tired. I'm picking Njokuani.

Dong Hyun Kim vs Sean Pierson (welterweight)

Hate going against the Canadian, but... I'm picking Kim.

Jacob Volkmann vs Efrain Escudero (lightweight)

Escudero has stumbled a bit since winning TUF8, even getting cut from the UFC. He is a replacement for an injured fighter in this one. Volkmann has disappointed me in the past. This is a matchup of wrestlers, but I could see Volkmann getting the submission. I'm picking Volkmann.

Matthew Riddle vs Luis Ramos (welterweight)

Ramos is essentially a nobody, but he has a better record than Riddle. With 3 losses in his last 5 fights, this could be do or die for Riddle in the UFC. I think he dies. I'm picking Ramos.

Manny Gamburyan vs Diego Nunes (featherweight)

Gamburyan lost my respect with that BS with Jeff Cox so I like it when he fights good fighters - it means I can pick against him. I'm picking Nunes.

UFC 135 Results

Didn't get to see this event - just a couple of fights on the web or in the prelim show. Let's see how ugly it got.

Jon Jones def. Rampage Jackson (sub 4)
Rampage is ridiculously one-dimensional, and despite his claims of being better prepared and in great shape, he demonstrated once again that he is a one-trick pony. Stay away from the big punches and you can pretty much guarantee yourself a win over Jackson. Jones used his reach to score and finally ended the fight with a rear naked choke. No surprise. (1-0)

Josh Koshcheck def. Matt Hughes (KO 1)
Honestly, is anyone still interested in seeing Hughes fight? Once again HUghes got knocked out early by a decent opponent. If Hughes isn't facing a has been or never was, that's pretty much the tune these days. Time to retire, Matt. Seriously. (2-0)

Travis Browne def. Rob Broughton (unanimous)
Didn't see it. (3-0)

Nate Diaz def. Takanori Gomi (sub 1)
Gomi had 4 punches land. FOUR. GTFO of the UFC, man. Why is Gomi around? (4-0)

Mark Hunt def. Ben Rothwell (unanimous)
Looks like this one might have been surprisingly one-sided. Rothwell is really stalling in the UFC. Hunt wins again? (4-1)

Tony Ferguson def. Aaron Riley (TKO 1)
Ferguson looked good. Broke Riley's jaw, forcing a stoppage after round one. Too bad. (5-1)

Tim Boetsch def. Nick Ring (unanimous)
Not sure what Ring's game plan was here. He backed away from Boetsch all night long. Was he trying to tire him out? Boetsch seemed better in all categories and Ring had nothing. (5-2)

Junior Assuncao def. Eddie Yagin (unanimous)
Didn't see it. (6-2)

Takeya Mizugaki def. Cole Escovedo (KO 2)
Didn't see it. (6-3)

James Te Huna def. Ricardo Romero (KO 1)
Romero...WTF? He looked AWFUL. Poor takedown attempts lead to him getting hammer fisted into unconsciousness. Brutal. I imagine he'll get cut. (6-4)

So 6-4. Not bad. 7-3 really, if you count the fact I actually called Boetsch's win but chose not to go against the Canadian. :P Doesn't that count for something?

UFC 135 Picks

This looks like an ok card. Not great.

Rampage Jackson vs Jon Jones (light heavyweight)
Rampage seems like an interesting, decent guy, but he is WAY beyond his prime and has never impressed me in a UFC fight. He is terribly one-dimensional and not even that good at the one thing he does best: stand-up. Sure, he has great knock out power, but he has to connect first. Jones won't give him that chance. Expect a lot of kicks and takedowns and Rampage to lose a very lopsided decision. I'm taking Jones.

Matt Hughes vs Josh Koshcheck (welterweight)
Hughes is another one who is way past his best-before date. he might have a couple of ok fights left in him, but he is getting outclassed badly by anyone of any talent (Penn, GSP, Alves) and getting wins against has-beens and never-weres (Serra, Gracie, Almeida). He hasn't had an impressive win in 4 years. That's a long time, folks. Hughes is a better fighter than Koscheck who is generally overrated, but Koscheck ought to be much faster. I think that'll make the difference. I expect this one to stay on the feet and Koscheck to clip Hughes sometime within 15 minutes. Expect Hughes to reconsider his career after this one. I'm taking Koscheck.

Travis Browne vs Rob Broughton (heavyweight)
This is the third ranked fight? Yikes. Broughton is a Brit with some submission skills, but Browne is a BJJ guy with power. Browne has also faced MUCH tougher competition. I'm taking Browne.

Nate Diaz vs Takanori Gomi (lightweight)
A battle of underachievers. Diaz has talent but lacks brains and a game plan. Gomi came into the UFC with much fanfare but has not impressed me. He is 1-2 in the UFC and prone to submissions. You know who is great at submissions? Diaz. But he has to get him down first. If Diaz stays on his feet he might be in trouble and if it goes to a decision expect it to go Gomi's way. Diaz is 3-5 in his last eight, all losses by decision, all wins by submission. By all accounts Diaz is a douche; but he's a talented douche. Gomi appears to be neither. I'll take Diaz.

Ben Rothwell vs Mark Hunt (heavyweight)
More big boys. Rothwell is a former IFL champ who hasn't done much in the UFC, though his 2009 loss was to future champ Cain Velasquez (which may or may not have been stopped early). He's 31-7 but only 29 and has some big names on his resume. Hunt had an impressive win his last time out after I had written him off. Still, the guys has LOSING RECORD in MMA. How is he in the UFC? Sure, he has a better kickboxing record, but even that is only hit and miss. He has split decision wins over Cro Cop and Wanderlei Silva but those guys are tiny in comparison and that was 7 years ago. I can't pick this guy. I'm picking Rothwell.

Tony Ferguson vs Aaron Riley (lightweight)
I like Ferguson, a TUF champ, but he may be in over his head here. Riley has an impressive record, but can't seem to get the big wins. This is a test for Ferguson. Riley usually goes to decision, while Ferguson has only gone the distance twice in this 13-fight career. I'm picking Ferguson.

Nick Ring vs Tim Boetsch (middleweight)
Ring has a perfect record (though that includes a bizarre win over Riki Fukuda) but Boetsch has way more experience and much bigger names on his resume. At 13-4, Boetsch is no pushover. I think Boetsch is gonna take this one, but I don't wanna bet against the Canadian, so I'll take Ring.

Junior Assuncao vs Eddie Yagin (featherweight)
Assuncao is dropping down for this one. This marks his return to the UFC after a four year and eight fight absence. Both of these guys have decent records and like submissions. Assuncao is much taller, though and should have the advantage on the feet. I'll take Assuncao.

Takeya Mizugaki vs Cole Escovedo (bantamweight)
I can't remember the last time I weighed 135... High school? Escovedo is a former WEC featherweight champ but has fallen on harder times since and has lost three of his last four. Mizugaki did well in Japan, but had a harder time in the WEC. He has won against so-so guys, lost to all the top guys. Is Escovedo a top guy? Not anymore, but I like his chances better. I'm picking Escovedo.

James Te Huna vs Ricardo Romero (light heavyweight)
Te Huna is a submissoins guy who seems to prefer striking these days. Romero is a talented up and comer who lost quickly and badly his last time out. This is a tough one to pick as both guys show potential and are well matched. Te Huna is the wrestler, though, and that would normally give the edge. I'm gonna buck that trend, though, and pick Romero.

UFC 125 Results

Okay, okay - I've been totally slacking. It's been busy at my paying job, so the volunteer work has had to take a back seat.

Pay me for this and I'll be posting like clockwork.

...Please!

Let's catch up with UFC 125. I didn't see it because of New Year's Eve celebrations out of town, but I did catch some stuff.

Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard (draw)
Wish I had seen this. Sounds like Maynard was smoking Edgar in the first round but failed to finish. Apparently it was easily a 10-8 round, maybe an unheard of 10-7. Either way, Maynard did not get the job done and may have gotten a bit too comfortable with his lead or may have even tired himself out a little. The draw sets up a rematch - their third fight, actually - with Edgar yet to secure a win over Maynard. Now that Maynard has a five rounder under his belt, the rematch bodes well for him. He may be the favourite in the next fight.

Brian Stann def. Chris Leben (TKO 1)
Looks like Leben went toe-to-toe again and lost. No style points for the guy. He just sticks his chin and fists out. Stann capitalized and was able to KO the troubled fighter. Kudos to him. Leben was on the rise and this is a nice feather in Stann's cap. Will the Leben-Wanderlei fight still happen?

Thiago Silva def. Brandon Vera (unanimous)
Vera was gien his walking papers after this one. A massive fall for a guy who came in with such promise and was boasting he'd be the first guy to hold the heavyweight and light-heavyweight belts at the same time. Not so much. He hasn't improved and looks timid in the octagon. That won't keep you employed at the new and improved UFC. Silva keeps looking good. his only major setbacks have been against future champs.

Hyun Dong Kim def. Nate Diaz (unanimous)
The stats suggest Diaz did well, but Kim got the nod. Another example of Diaz just not fighting smart? He needs to avoid getting taken down. He's way too comfortable there, but it never looks good in the judge's eyes to be on your back.

Clay Guida def. Takanori Gomi (sub 2)
Not surprising that the ultra slow Gomi could not keep pace with hyperactive Guida. Gomi has not impressed me and yet this win has people buzzing about a title shot for Guida. THIS fight? Well, maybe if he defeats Anthony Pettis in his next fight...

Jeremy Stevens def. Marcus Davis (KO 3)
Poor Davis. Apparently, he was clearly winning the fight until he got caught in the third round. The loss got him cut from the UFC even though he has always been a good performer and this was his first fight at lightweight. Tough break. No doubt a direct result of Zuffa merging the WEC with the mothership and the resulting surplus of lightweights in the UFC.

Dustin Poirier def. Josh Grispi (unanimous)
Ok.

Brad Tavares def. Phil Baroni (TKO 1)
F***ing retire already! What was this guy doing back in the UFC?!

Diego Nunes def. Mike Brown (split)
Remember when Mike Brown was a somebody?

Daniel Roberts def. Greg Soto (sub 1)
Ok.

Jacob Volkmann def. Antonio McKee (split)
Can't bet on Volkmann.

UFC 118 Results

Ok, let's see how I did on the predictions:

Frankie Edgar def. BJ Penn (unanimous)

Like I said, I was shocked when Edgar got the nod the first time, but this one was a no-doubter. I'd be interested to hear whether or not Penn had any illness or injuries coming into this fight because the minute I saw him he didn't seem right. Was he nervous? Sick? Was he wearing coloured contact lenses? He looked like a different man. It showed in the fight, too, as he had no answer for The Answer and looked completely out of it. So now there's talk of him moving back up to welterweight? What for? So he can killed again by GSP? Why run away from the lightweight division where only one man seems capable of beating him, only to take on bigger guys and yet another man he can't beat? Stay at lightweight, BJ. (0-1)

Randy Couture def James Toney (Sub 1)

This was over as soon as Couture got Toney down,just as everyone predicted. The only drama was in the first 13 seconds. The rest was academic. Why in the world would the UFC want more boxers to come over to MMA? Unless they train for years and become multi-disciplined, it's just another waste of everyone's time. This fight was a joke. (1-1)

Demian Maia def. Mario Miranda (unanimous)

Maia clearly outclassed Miranda who was an overhyped substitute. In this battle fo jiu-jitsu practitioners, Maia looked incredible. (2-1)

Gray Maynard def. Kenny Florian (unanimous)

This was the real main event as it had the most drama. These two have been on a collision course for a while and Maynard finally got to prove that he deserves the title shot. His fights might be boring as hell, but you can't argue with results. Edgar vs Maynard ought to be interesting as it pits two wrestlers against each other. Edgar is by far the better boxer so Maynard will have to try to challenge Edgar's wrestling skills if he is to have a snowball's chance of winning. (3-1)

Nate Diaz def. Marcus Davis (Sub 3)

This was a bit sad to watch as Davis was getting pummeled by Diaz. The problem, though, is that Davis was clearly cut by an accidental clash of heads. That put Davis at a disadvantage in the striking game and Diaz took advantage. When Davis was forced to the ground, it was over. Davis is entertaining, but this likely spells the end of any title shot hopes he might have had. Diaz, on the other hand, will be groomed for a title run. (4-1)

Joe Lauzon def. Gabe Ruediger (Sub 1)

Wow. Lauzon looked awesome. Ruediger was beyond outclassed. He was supposed to have turned his career around and be on the comeback trail, but this ended that in a hurry. Lauzon was at his jiu-jitsu best. Unbelievably good. (5-1)

Nik Lentz def. Andre Winner (unanimous)

Hardly a barn-burner, but Lentz clearly earned the win. Winner looked lost. (6-1)

Dan Miller vs John Salter (middleweight)

Miller looked solid as always. (7-1)

Nick Osipczak vs Greg Soto (welterweight)

Didn't see it. (8-1)

Mike Pierce vs Amilcar Alves (welterweight)

Pierce submitted Alves. Wow. Guess my upset special didn't pan out. (8-2)

8-2! Not bad...

UFC 118 Picks

UFC 118 promises to be interesting if not comical. It features the return match between BJ Penn and the man who (shockingly) took his title, Frankie Edgar – but it also features a ridiculous match-up between hall of famer Randy Couture and boxing legend James Toney.

Whatever.

Let’s get to the picks:

Frankie Edgar vs BJ Penn (lightweight)

I was shocked when Edgar got the nod the first time. Sure, he got a takedown or two, but overall I thought Penn won the boxing match-up, despite Edgar being more active. Add in the fact that Penn was the champ and I thought for sure he’d get the decision. Now we’ll see the real contest. Penn won’t take Edgar lightly and he’ll be hungrier than in their first meeting. I’m not sure what Penn can do differently other than use his jab more effectively to keep Edgar at a distance and maybe score a knockdown or two. Edgar has the tools to beat Penn, but I just don’t see it happening this time. I’m picking Penn.

Randy Couture vs James Toney (heavyweight)

How does this fight get sanctioned? I thought the gaming commission would have to agree that the fighters are evenly matched and of similar experience. Experience in a boxing ring is not experience in a cage. Couture ought to win this fight in under a minute and by submission. Of course there’s always the possibility that Toney will crack Couture in the jaw before the Natural can take him down. There’s no way Toney makes it beyond the second round before completely gassing out, so, barring that first punch knockout, I’m picking Couture.

Demian Maia vs Mario Miranda (middleweight)

Mario who? How did this guy earn a fight against a top contender? Well, he has a nice record, for one, but is 1-1 in the UFC, losing to Gerald Harris by TKO but then turning the tables on David Loiseau. I like Loiseau but he’s not exactly a top guy. So is this meant to be a rebound fight for Maia so he can get back on track toward a title shot? Who knows what Joe Silva is thinking (see Toney fight). Miranda has power, but Maia is a ground god. I’m still gonna pick Maia.

Kenny Florian vs Gray Maynard (lightweight)

This is the fight I want to see. This will likely determine who gets the next title shot. I like both of these guys, but it’s Maynard’s time. KenFlo has had his chances and Maynard already has a win over champ Frankie Edgar (which is why he should have had first crack and Penn should have had to win one before getting a rematch – like most deposed champs do). A win by Florian makes the division messy; does he get a THIRD shot? I’m gonna be pulling for Maynard.

Nate Diaz vs Marcus Davis (welterweight)

Still not sure what Diaz is doing at welterweight. He ought to drop back down and take his chances against the lightweights. I can’t see him going very far at welterweight where the fighters are bigger and smarter. That said, Marcus Davis is almost tailor-made for Diaz. Davis is a boxer who has decent but not spectacular ground skills. If the fight goes to the ground, Diaz ought to be able to submit the Irish Hand Grenade. On the feet, Diaz will have a reach advantage and might be able to keep Davis from landing anything too devastating. As we’ve seen with Ben Saunders and Mike Swick, Davis does not do well against taller opponents. I don’t like his chances here. I like Davis and Diaz is a bit of a douche, but my brain tells me to go with Diaz.

Joe Lauzon vs Gabe Ruediger (lightweight)

WTF? What is Ruediger doing back in the UFC? The guy drops out of the Ultimate Fighter for not making weight, gets schooled in the octagon when he does get the chance and somehow he gets a fight against the talented Joe Lauzon? I guess winning 6 fights in a row (and a title) against nobodies will do that for you. Still, Lauzon ought to walk through this guy unless he has re-invented himself. I’m picking Lauzon.

Andre Winner vs Nik Lentz (lightweight)

Night of the lightweights, I guess. Both of these guys tend to go to decision. Lentz has faced and beaten tougher competition, though. Winner is decent, but I think he might lack some seasoning. I’m picking Lentz.

Dan Miller vs John Salter (middleweight)

Dan Miller on the undercard? Not getting a lot of respect. Sure, he’s lost three in a row, but two were against guys who then fought for the title and one was against UFC darling Michael Bisping who is certainly being groomed for an eventual title shot. (and all three were decisions) He’s a talented guy. Salter has a nice record, but one win was over Jason MacDonald due to injury, which ought to not count in my books. I’m betting Miller’s experience proves the difference. I’m picking Miller.

Nick Osipczak vs Greg Soto (welterweight)

Both of these guys have decent records for newbies, and both have fought Matt Riddle. Osipczak won by TKO while Soto was DQ’d for an illegal upkick. I don’t know Soto very well, and I like Nick so I’ll pick Osipczak.

Mike Pierce vs Amilcar Alves (welterweight)

Alves doesn’t have a pic up on the UFC page, which is never a good sign. He has a great record though and finishes guys off fast, usually by submission. Pierce is a wrestler and tends to win by decision; he’s also had some tough opponents in the UFC. He has the experience edge, for sure. Can the wrestler smother the jiu-jitsu practitioner or can the Brazilian get the submission? I’m gonna go with the upset and pick Alves.

Let's hope I actually get to SEE this one...

UFC 111 Results - Oh, and Boston Pizza Sucks

UFC 111 is in the books.

I tried to watch it with friends at the local Boston Pizza, but when fight time came, the signal was lost as if they’d never ordered it. The crowd was not happy. The manager assured us it would start momentarily and that other bars were in the same boat, but that was a bold faced lie. After 45 minutes we left (paying full price for our order, no less!) and booked it to my place to order it in. Turned out to be a better night that way anyways. F*ck you very much, Boston Pizza. You’ve lost my business for good, along with many fight fans in the Yonge & Eglinton neighbourhood, I imagine. Hope it was worth it to ya.

So, let’s review, shall we?

Georges St-Pierre def. Dan Hardy (unanimous) – This was a compete mismatch and highlighted why Hardy was not quite ready for prime time. The UFC clearly erred in giving the Brit a title shot before he was anywhere near ready. Sure, he may have punching power which was displayed in so-so wins, but he has no real ground game and he’s nowhere near GSP’s class. Hardy needs to measure himself against the likes of Fitch, Alves and Koscheck before he can lay claim to the #1 contender’s spot. GSP dominated from beginning to end. I can’t believe the judges did not score more 10-8 rounds. Give Hardy credit for not tapping out to a couple of sick submissions. In the end, he may have gained more fans as a result, but the night suffered for it. The result was never in doubt. (1-0)

Shane Carwin def. Frank Mir (KO 1) – Is Mir all talk? Sure, he beat a sick Nogueira and a lackluster Kongo, but despite all of his posturing he can’t seem to win when it matters most. I really thought he’d put in a better performance, but Carwin relied on the tried and true Lesnar playbook and beat Mir with some wrestling and ground and pound. I’m glad Carwin pulled it off so that we don’t have to see Lesnar-Mir III. Carwin came out unscathed, so we will likely see him face Lesnar in June. That leaves Cain Velasquez without a dance partner. Personally, I hope that means we’ll see Velasquez vs Dos Santos to see who gets the next title shot. (2-0)

Kurt Pellegrino def. Fabricio Camoes (sub 2) – I was a bit distracted during this fight, so I can’t recall too much of it. I don’t recall this fight turning my crank. There was one cool moment, though, when Pellegrino, fighting off a rear naked choke, did a front summersault and slammed Camoes’ head on the mat. I thought Camoes was going to go out right then and there, but he showed some heart and fought his way back into the match before finally getting submitted. (3-0)

Jon Fitch def. Been Saunders (unanimous) – This was one of the fights we missed thanks to Boston Pizza’s incompetence. Sounds like it wasn’t close, with Fitch keeping Saunders on the ground most of the fight. Predictable. (4-0)

Jim Miller def. Mark Bocek (lightweight) – We missed this fight too. I hear this one was close, with some thinking Bocek was robbed. (4-1)

Nate Diaz def. Rory Markham (TKO 1) – Not sure what happened with Markham but this was not an impressive performance. I’m shocked Diaz was able to overwhelm Markham so easily on the feet since he was coming up from lightweight and is still not a big guy. I’m still not convinced Diaz will find much success at 170, but he sure looked good on Saturday. (4-2)

Ricardo Almeida def. Matt Brown (sub 2) – Brown held his own for a while, but in the end, Almeida’s wrestling and jiu-jitsu were simply too good. Brown can turn in some exciting fights when it stays on the feet, but his ground game is clearly a weakness. (5-2)

Jared Hamman def. Rodney Wallace (unanimous) – Ths was a bit of a ugly slugfest. Entertaining, sure, but hardly top calibre stuff. Both fighters blew up early and were fist-swinging zombies by the end. Wallace seemed more tired, though, and likely lost the decision as a result. (6-2)

Matthew Riddle def. Greg Soto (DQ 3) – I’m glad Riddle got the win, though I pegged his opponent to get the decision. It seems there was an illegal upkick (?) in this one that halted the action in the third and prompted the DQ. It seems Riddle was leading the fight at the time, so it isn’t as controversial as it might have been. Still, a bad win to decide a fight. (6-3)

Oops…Looks like I missed a fight somehow(?).

Rousimar Palhares def. Tomasz Drwal (sub 1) – I’m fairly certain I would have picked Palhares in this one, but we won’t count that. Palhares looked awesome as he locked in a sick heel hook after knocking Drwal down. Not since Andrei Arlovski have I seen a guy go for that move as his first option. It was a bit bizarre, and very risky, but it worked – and I don’t think Drwal will be walking around for a while.

So 6-3 on the fights I picked. Not bad at all. Seems my luck is turning around.

The busy month continues as this Wednesday features another Fight Night Live and the debut of the new season of The Ultimate Fighter. Sweet.

Stay tuned for picks.

UFC 111 GSP vs Hardy Picks

UFC 111 takes place in Newark, NJ on Saturday. It features two title fights (kinda) and some sleeper fights in the undercard.

Let’s break it down:

Georges St-Pierre vs Dan Hardy (welterweight) – Hardy has a puncher’s chance. That’s it. GSP so ridiculously outclasses Hardy it isn’t funny. No way Hardy deserves this title shot, since he hasn’t fought anybody in the top five of the welterweight division. How do you get a title fight without fighting Fitch, Alves or even Koscheck? Hardy (barely) beat Marcus Davis (split decision) who, despite an 11-fight winning streak, appeared nowhere on the UFC’s title radar, and Mike Swick who hadn’t fought any tough guys himself. This is the sort of thing that makes you wonder about the UFC’s match making. Is Hardy getting the shot because of who he is (a colourful character) or what he is (a true contender – which he isn’t)? Still, Hardy has a chance of winning. Anybody can win on any given day. The point is, if he wins, has he earned it? I don’t think so. It’ll be Matt Serra all over again, with people salivating at the chance to un-seat Hardy who has shown no ground game. I think GSP ought to win, and I really, really hope he does since it would be a shame to repeat the Serra fiasco.

Frank Mir vs Shane Carwin (heavyweight) – Shane Carwin is a nice guy. He is also undefeated at 11-0. Good for him. But he is another guy who simply has not earned his shot. Who has he beaten? Gabriel Gonzaga? Great. Nice job. But Gonzaga was winning that fight and Gonzaga isn’t exactly setting the UFC on fire with losses to Randy Couture, Fabricio Werdum and Junior Dos Santos. Is Gonzaga really the guy that is the benchmark for heavyweight title contenders? I don’t think so. But that just goes to show how thin the heavyweight division has become. Get one big win and you’re in title contention. Why is the UFC bothering with this interim title crap if Lesnar is back? When his health was in doubt, ok, it made sense. But now? In the end, this fight is exactly what it should be – a contender’s fight. Whoever wins is probably deserving of a shot – at least, more deserving than they are now. Do we really wan to see Lesnar-Mir III, though? That would account for half of Lesnar’s matches… As for the fight at hand, I think Mir will win, but I’d like to see Carwin pull it off, so I’ll bet on Carwin.

Kurt Pellegrino vs Fabricio Camoes (lightweight) – Why is this fight on the main card? I’ve never been a big fan of Pellegrino and who the hell is Camoes? There are better fights on the card. Camoes makes his UFC debut, while Pellegrino is 6-3 in the UFC. Both of these guys tend to win by submission, with Pellegrino having more experience and tougher fights. I’ll pick Pellegrino.

Jon Fitch vs Been Saunders (welterweight) – Thiago Alves had to pull out of his rematch with Fitch (again) due to injury (again). So instead, we get Saunders who was supposed to fight Jake Ellenberger (I guess the UFC really wanted Fitch on the card) and is coming off a devastating win over Marcus Davis. Saunders is a nice guy and is obviously talented, but he’s out of his league with Fitch. Fitch is unstoppable and has a crazy record; his only loss in his last 20 fights was to GSP and while the champ pushed him around for five rounds, Fitch refused to quit. Although Fitch hasn’t prepared for Saunders (who has a completely different style than Alves) I’ll pick Fitch.

Jim Miller vs Mark Bocek (lightweight) – Both of these guys are impressive and both have lost to Frank Edgar (no shame there). Both seem to like submissions. Tough one to call. I’ll cheer for the Canadian, I guess: Bocek.

Nate Diaz vs Rory Markham (welterweight) – Diaz makes his debut at 170, which to me is an odd move (although, having lost 3 of 4, perhaps he was hoping the move would extend his life span in the UFC). It seems to me his style is much better suited to lightweight, where his reach was formidable. At 170 he’ll be facing even stronger guys who will be able to lay and pray. Diaz’s weak point is clearly his game plans. He either needs a new coach or he needs to smarten up. You can’t win if you stay on your back unless you submit your opponent. Markham is a KO specialist who will try to keep this one on its feet. Look for Diaz’s chin to be tested. I’ll pick Markham if he can keep this on its feet.

Ricardo Almeida vs Matt Brown (welterweight) – Almeida is making his debut at 170 as well. He’s a talented guy, but has gone to decision a few too many times for my liking. Not sure why he’s dropping down in weight when the middleweight division seems so thin. I like Brown but he is susceptible to submissions, which happens to be Almeida’s specialty. Anybody who can submit Nate Marquardt is impressive. I don’t like Brown’s chances. I’ll pick Almeida.

Rodney Wallace vs Jared Hamman (light heavyweight) – Who? Two former football players with similar records, both coming off losses in their UFC debuts. Wallace tends to go to decision while Hamman knocks guys out quick. I’ll pick Hamman.

Matthew Riddle vs Greg Soto (welterweight) – Another welterweight fight. Soto will be the hometown favourite in his UFC debut. He has a better record and more experience than Riddle who has shown some promise. I don’t like Riddle’s chances, though I’ll secretly be cheering for him. My head says Soto.

Man, I hope GSP is still champ come Monday…

Fight Night Results

Missed this one while in Cuba. Sorry, folks.

Let's recap:

Gray Maynard def. Nate Diaz (Split) - Tough one to call. I'm glad Maynard won, but I'm not sure he quite earned it. I might have had Diaz at 29-28. The first round was close and the next two were split. How one judge had it 30-27 Maynard is beyond me and shows the UFC needs to do SOMETHING about the judging.

Evan Dunham def. Efrain Escudero (sub 3) - Escudero suffered his first pro loss. He looked good in the first, but faded a little and then got submitted nicely.

Aaron Simpson def. Tom Lawlor (Split) - Lawlor started off well, but was overwhlemed after the first.

Amir Sadollah def. Brad Blackburn (Unanimous) - Sadollah keeps winning, but I'm not sure he's ready for top-flight competition. He looks like he's barely pulling these out, sometimes.

Chris Leben def. Jay Silva (Unanimous) - Missed it.

Rick Story def. Jesse Lennox (Majority) - Ok...sure. Didn't see it.

Thiago Tavares vs Nick Lentz (Majority Draw) - Really? Ok. Didn't see it.

Rory MacDonald def. Mike Guymon (sub 1) - Didn't se it.

Rafael Dos Anjos def. Kyle Bradley (Unanimous) - Too bad for Bradley.

Gerald Harris def. John Salter (TKO 3) - Nope.

Nick Catone def. Jesse Forbes (Split) - Uh...when's the replay?

Next up: the battle of the old timers at UFC 109 - Randy Couture vs Mark Coleman. I'll try to make it, I swear.

UFC Fight Night results

Ok let's see...

Nate Diaz def. Melvin Guillard (Sub 2) - I had this one pretty much figured. Guillard gave Diaz fits at first with his power, but got cocky. What a moron. He started off playing it smart, even when he was taken down, but clearly got away from the game plan when he tried a silly possum game and missed, stumbling into Diaz's guard and the easy finish. You'd think a guy with that many fights would be smarter. Guillard's a buffoon. (1-0)

Gray Maynard def. Roger Huerta (split) – I had this one 29-28 Maynard, but apparently two judges wanted to run Huerta out of the UFC as emphatically as possible and didn't give him a single round. Good fight, though. (2-0)

Carlos Condit def. Jake Ellenberger (split) – I was surprised this was split. Condit got smashed in the first round, but I thought he clearly won the next two. Still, I wasn't very impressed with him and don't expect him to get far in the UFC. (3-0)

Nate Quarry def. Tim Credeur (unanimous) - Fight of the night. These two guys laid into each other. I was surprised by Credeur's stand-up and I bet Quarry was, too. Quarry demontrated he had superior power, though, and that made the difference. He still has to work on passing guard. (4-0)

UNDERCARD:

Brian Stann def. Steve Cantwell (unanimous) – Another decision. I thought Cantwell might get a submission, but since it went the distance, it isn't surprising that Stann got the nod. (4-1)

Mike Pyle def. Chris Wilson (sub 3) – I guess I picked Wilson. Oops. Should have known not to bet against a guy who trains with Griffin and Maynard. (4-2)

CB Dollaway def. Jay Silva (unanimous) – Ugh. Oh well, didn't get my wish. I knew the odds were long. Dollaway won and may stick around. Yay. (4-3)

Jeremy Stephens def. Justin Buchholz (TKO 1) – Stephens will stick around for a while after this, I guess. Like I said, Buchholz's fights don't last, one way or the other. He may be on his way out. (4-4)

Mike Pierce def. Brock Larson (unanimous) – This was a shocker. Gotta see this. Yet another decision. Might have been a very boring fight for those in attendance. (4-5)

Ryan Jensen def. Steve Steinbeiss (TKO 1) – Finally got one right on the undercard. Geez. (5-5)

Sam Stout vs. Phillipe Nover didn't happen because Nover suffered some sort of seizure before the fight. Bummer. Hope he's alright, but he needs to get that checked out and fixed. That's twice now.

So, perfect (4-0) on the main card and a disgusting 1-5 on the undercard. Well, at least I can pick the big boys right.

UFC 103 picks tomorrow!

UFC Fight Night - Diaz vs Guillard

Fight Night tomorrow night. Guess I should get my picks in quick.

Ok, here goes:

Nate Diaz vs Melvin Guillard – Diaz has to be way smarter than in his previous fights. Fortunately, Guillard is a banger with not much of a game plan, so it seems he may have been hand-picked to get Diaz back on track. I’ll pick Diaz.

Gray Maynard vs Roger Huerta – Much has been made of the fact that Huerta is on his way out of the UFC and MMA to pursue acting, so it seems likely that his heart isn’t 100% in this. If that’s the case, this might be an easy night for Maynard who is on a roll and on his way to a title match someday. If he beats Huerta, look for him to get a shot sooner rather than later. I’ll pick Maynard.

Carlos Condit vs Jake Ellenberger – Jake who? Condit is a former WEC champ who is being groomed by the UFC, likely the reason he’s facing a no name on the main card of a Fight Night. Ellenberger has a respectable record and a fair number of KO/TKOs, but I don’t know him from Adam, so I’ll go with Condit.

Nate Quarry vs Tim Credeur - I like Quarry, so I’ll be pulling for him. Credeur seems like a decent guy but his fighting style isn’t exactly flawless. He ought to give Quarry headaches if it goes to the ground (being more well-rounded), but I sense Quarry will pick him apart and get the TKO. I’ll pick Quarry.

Steve Cantwell vs. Brian Stann – This is actually the third time these two have fought, having split previous stoppages. Stann has power, but Cantwell has submissions and since these two are familiar with each other, I don’t expect Cantwell to get caught again. I’ll pick Cantwell.

Chris Wilson vs. Mike Pyle – Tough call. Wilson beat Rory Markham while Pyle lost to him. Pyle has some tough fights, though, including a loss to Rampage Jackson and a win over Jon Fitch. He also trains with Forrest Griffin and Gray Maynard, so you know he has a work ethic. I’m leaning towards Wilson…

CB Dollaway vs. Jay Silva – Sweet lord, why is CB Dollaway still in the UFC? Someone must STILL think his TUF loss was a fluke. I hope he loses just so that he can go somewhere else to get some experience. He doesn’t look like much, but I’ll pull for Silva. I sense he’s a sacrificial lamb, though.

Sam Stout vs. Phillipe Nover – I like Nover, but bet against a Canadian? Not if I can help it. Besides, Stout has way more octagon experience than the TUF alumnus, so I’m figuring this could be a quick one. Stout.

Jeremy Stephens vs. Justin Buchholz – Stephens doesn’t really turn my crank. I’ve been underwhelmed by his performances, despite some highlight wins. Buchholz’s fights don’t last and he seems to have a more impressive win/loss profile than Stephens, with some submissions thrown in. I’ll pick Buchholz.

Brock Larson vs. Mike Pierce – Brock was supposed to make a run in the UFC. Pierce is being fed to the lions, I suspect. I’ll pick Larson.

Ryan Jensen vs. Steve Steinbeiss – Yikes. Neither of these guys has an impressive history. I’ll pick the more experienced Jensen.

UFC 101 Predictions

The UFC heads to Philadelphia on Friday for UFC 101.

Can it continue the heat and media buzz generated by UFC 100? I doubt it, but it's still shaping up to be a pretty good card.

The main event features BJ Penn vs Kenny Florian for the lightweight belt, but make no mistake: people are tuning in to see Forrest Griffin take on the seemingly unbeatable Anderson Silva in Griffin's light heavyweight class. I'm a big Griffin mark, but I do not like his chances in this one. At the end of the night, I'm either going to be elated or depressed. I guess we'll see.

Now for my predictions:

BJ Penn vs. Kenny Florian (lightweight)

This could be a really good fight. BJ likes to stand and bang when he can, but is known primarily for his jiu jitsu. Florian has good stand up and should enjoy a reach advantage. he's also well versed in jiu jitsu and could be on top if the fight hits the mat. If so, he's known for his finishing skills. Penn is still hurting from his destruction at the hands of GSP and could wilt if the fight isn't going his way. Penn is "the master" but he's also a big effing baby. Which Penn will shine through?

My money's on: Florian in a big upset. He doesn't look like much, but with the exception of Sherk's "lay and pray" strategy, Florian seems to be able to take what his opponents dish out and return the punishment in spades. I see a stand up battle at first, with Florian gradually taking the cardio advantage and punishing Penn on the mat.

Forrest Griffin vs. Anderson Silva (light heavyweight)

Silva is a beast at either middleweight or light heavyweight and has hands of stone. Griffin has terrific cardio and is always game, but has shown he can be knocked silly. Is it just a matter of time before he gets caught by the very accurate Brazilian and becomes another victim? Or will he come up with a strategy that will defy the odds and give him the biggest win of his life? (sorry, Rampage) I don't like Griffin's chances, but if you think I'm betting against him, you're nuts.

My money's on: Griffin. Not really, but I can't bet against him and don't want to "push". This would be a way bigger upset than the Florian victory. I give him a 10% shot at best.

Amir Sadollah Vs. Johny Hendricks (welterweight)

I like Sadollah and he has pulled off some surprising wins, but, really, he isn't THAT talented. CB Dollaway is way overrated. Hendricks has been plying his trade in WEC where the talent level isn't quite as high, but at least he has experience - and anyone who has a win by D'Arce Choke deserves respect.

My money's on: Hendricks. I like the look of this guy and think that after this win, the UFC will look to move him up the ladder.

Kendall Grove Vs. Ricardo Almeida (middleweight)

Grove was a guy I really wanted to watch after his TUF win, but he's been disappointing in his last few fights. He really got exposed by Jorge Rivera and Patrick Cote. Sure he has a win over former champ Evan Tanner, but Tanner was never that well rounded. Almeida, on the other hand, seems to be a guy who just doesn't deliver like he should. He's a talented guy, no doubt - he has a submission victory over Nate Marquardt - but he's never been that impressive (he has lost to Patrick Cote and Andrei Semenov).

My money's on: Almeida. If he doesn't beat Grove, send him packing.

Josh Neer Vs. Kurt Pellegrino (lightweight)

People seem to think highly of both of these fighters, but I haven't been that impressed. Pellegrino has lost to Nate Diaz, Joe Stevenson and Drew Fickett and beaten....who?... Rob Emerson? Thiago Tavares?... Junior Assuncao? Clearly he's not top notch. "The Dentist" Josh Neer has beaten a bunch of meatheads (Joe Stevenson and Melvin Guillard the possible exceptions) and lost to Nick AND Nate Diaz, Josh Burkman, Mark Miller, Drew Fickett and Spencer Fisher. Why is this fight on the main card?

My money's on: Neer. It's a toss up. Neer is bigger and more experienced, so there you go.

UNDERCARD

Shane Nelson Vs. Aaron Riley (lightweight) - Neither one has an impressive pedigree. Riley is far more experienced, but has lost to every significant fighter he's faced. This is a rematch set thanks to a controversial stoppage at UFC 96. I didn't see it, but I heard it was bad. Still, I'll take Nelson in the rematch, too.

Tamdan McCrory Vs. John Howard (welterweight) - I like this McCrory kid. If he can avoid those bloody armbars, it would seem he'd have a very promising career. I'll pick McCrory to submit Howard.

Thales Leites Vs. Alessio Sakara (middleweight) - Who would have thought a few months ago that we'd be seeing this fight buried in the undercard? These are two "name" guys who have fallen by the wayside. Leites looked promising at first, but put in such a stinker in his title fight against Anderson Silva that the UFC will probably toss him out on his ass if he lays another egg on Saturday. "Legionarius" was given much fanfare by the UFC commentators when he showed up, but he's been way way way less than impressive. He beat perennial punching bag Elvis Sinosic, but then dropped four of his next six UFC fights, including a devastating knockout by upstart Houton Alexander. How is this guy still in the UFC?! He should be shown the door if he loses Saturday. Oh, I guess my money's on Leites.

Matthew Riddle Vs. Dan Cramer (welterweight) - This ought to be fun. I like Riddle, so I'll pick him.

George Sotiropoulos Vs. George Roop (lightweight) - Some more TUF guys. I like Sotiropoulos, so I guess I'll pick him. He does seem to have the more impressive pedigree.

Jesse Lennox Vs. Danillo Villefort (welterweight) - I don't know these guys at all, so this is blind. Villefort is slightly bigger with Lennox having the slightly better record. He also has a significant number of submissions, so I'll take Lennox.

TUF 9 Finale - Results

Let’s see:

Diego Sanchez def. Clay Guida (split decision)
James Wilks def. DaMarques Johnson (rear naked choke - 1)
Chris Lytle def. Kevin Burns (unanimous decision)
Ross Pearson def. Andre Winner (unanimous decision)
Joe Stevenson def. Nate Diaz (unanimous decision)
Melvin Guillard def. Gleison Tibau (split decision)
Brad Blackburn def. Edgar Garcia (split decision)
Tomasz Drwal def. Mike Ciesnolevicz (TKO – 1)
Nick Osipczak def. Frank Lester (rear naked choke - 1)
Jason Dent def. Cameron Dollar (anaconda choke – 1)

I thought Sanchez was going to get robbed in the decision based on previous judges’ scoring. While Sanchez was clearly delivering the majority of the punishment, Guida was on top for a good chunk of the decisive third round and usually top position is equated with winning. I assume, of course, that it was the third round that was decisive since Guida was on top for most of the second – but Sanchez delivered some brutal elbows in that round, so who knows which one swayed the third judge. Further clouding the issue is the fact that the UFC would benefit more from a Sanchez win as he is the more colourful character and would likely sell more tickets in a title fight than Guida. I’m not convinced judges aren’t influenced by this sort of thing. We can now look forward to a Sanchez vs Penn/Florian fight for the 155 belt in 4 months or so. It ought to be interesting either way, but, while I like Florian, I don’t think there’s much doubt a Sanchez-Penn match-up would be more desirable to the UFC and fans. After all, Sanchez humbled Florian once already (though in a different weight class) and it’s always more interesting to see an established champ defend the belt than first timers (see the light heavyweight division).

I also correctly predicted Wilks would beat Johnson. Wilks struck early, putting Johnson on the defensive and the American couldn’t get out of the round to gather himself. Despite a few decent exchanges, Wilks was clearly in control and got the much-deserved win. It’ll be interesting to see how he does going forward. I was impressed with Wilks’ skills.

I went 3-for-3 in the top portion of the card when Lytle got the nod over a game Kevin Burns. Lytle threw bombs from the opening seconds and didn’t let up until the horn sounded. I was really impressed with Lytle’s cardio, which allowed him to give it all for 15 minutes and was the difference in the fight; Burns was gassed and was in retreat mode for much of the third round. Lytle isn’t champ material, but he’s one of those guys who acts as a gatekeeper to the upper ranks – if you can beat him, you deserve top-flight fights. Burns just isn’t there yet.

I really wanted Ross Pearson to win, but I thought Andre Winner was going to squeeze out a decision. I thought these two would stand and trade shots, with Winner having the jab advantage. I didn’t expect that these guys would hug for 15 minutes with no intervention by the ref (have I mentioned how much most refs suck? Herb Dean is by far the worst with Mazzagatti second). For a TUF “title fight” this was a dud. The two competitors negated each other’s offence and the result was a fight too close to call; not enough happened to distinguish the two competitors. I thought it fair that the first two rounds would be split and the third would decide the outcome since no one seemed to deserve being up 2-0. That said, I thought Winner was getting the best of Pearson in the first two and might have gotten the nod as the result. But Pearson was a little more active in the third and, thanks to the split rounds, got the decision. I really wasn’t impressed, but am looking forward to seeing more of Pearson in the future to see what he really has to offer.

What was Nate Diaz thinking? His loss to Joe Stevenson was due to one thing – strategy. Diaz is the more talented fighter, but he allowed Stevenson to take him down and stay on top – which was enough to earn the victory. Stevenson really didn’t do much, but Diaz was happy to stay on his back and attempt submissions. What he should have done was stay on his feet as much as possible and pick Stevenson apart a la BJ Penn. Instead, he pulled guard, made no real attempt to get back up and tried…what? Kimoras? Come on… Diaz has pulled this kind of stupidity before and obviously needs new coaching ‘cause his current approach sucks. This is a serious speed bump for him. Both of these guys have careers going nowhere fast.

In the undercard, I went 1-4, but I blame part of that on bad info from the UFC website. Tomasz Drwal and Mike Ciesnolevicz were fighting at light heavyweight which explains the discrepancy in their stats. Ciesnolevicz failed to make weight, though, and the big cut he did make probably factored in his loss. I’d have to see the other fights to comment on them. I’d like to see the Guillard-Tibau fight, for one.

So 3-2 on the main card, 1-4 on the undercard, 4-4 with fighters I knew, 4-6 overall.

Let the hype and build-up to UFC 100 begin!

TUF 9 Finale - Predictions

The Ultimate Fighter 9 finale is Saturday night, so here are my picks:

MAIN CARD

Diego Sanchez vs Clay Guida (155)

I used to be a pretty big fan of Sanchez’s, but he’s gotten crazier and crazier it seems and his style is suffering. He used to be relentless and inventive in his attacks, but lately he seems to have become more one-dimensional, looking to knock people out with boxing. Diego’s strength is his wrestling/ground game and he should return to it going forward. That said, he could take advantage of his size to pick Guida apart.

My money’s on: Sanchez. I see this one going to decision with Sanchez squeaking out a victory on points based on his jab.

DaMarques Johnson Vs. James Wilks (170)

These guys are pretty evenly matched. Both are good strikers without having the best chins. This could end in a surprising knockout at any moment.

My money’s on: Wilks. I can see Wilks taking Johnson down and earning the win. It ought to be close, though.

Chris Lytle Vs. Kevin Burns (170)

I like both of these guys, but Lytle’s a warrior and ought to be able to use his experience to beat Burns.

My money’s on: Lytle.

Ross Pearson Vs. Andre Winner (155)

I quite like Pearson’s energy and style, but Winner’s got a size advantage. When in doubt, go with the taller guy.

My money’s on: Winner. Go figure. (If Pearson wins, am I still right?)

Joe Stevenson Vs. Nate Diaz (155)

Stevenson may be the most overrated fighter in the UFC. He’s pulled off some nice submissions against foolish opponents, but Diaz is no fool and definitely has the edge in the submission department. Look for Stevenson to try to take Diaz down (after Diaz outboxes him) and, if he does, for Diaz to find the submission.

My money’s on: Diaz – on the ground or on the feet. Diaz ought to fly to the upper echelon after this fight.

UNDERCARD

Melvin Guillard Vs. Gleison Tibau (155)

This one all depends on Guillard. If he’s smart, he could knock Tibau out. If he’s foolish, he’ll get submitted in a heartbeat. We’ve seen this before.

My money’s on: Tibau. I just think Guillard will find a way to screw this up and he’s been off for quite a while.

Brad Blackburn Vs. Edgar Garcia (170) – I’ll take undefeated Garcia.

Mike Ciesnolevicz Vs. Tomasz Drwal (heavyweight) – Why is 205lb Drwal fighting a heavyweight? I’ll take the bigger guy: Ciesnolevicz.

Nick Osipczak Vs. Frank Lester (170) – Back to the TUF guys. Osipczak has the size/reach advantage, but he doesn’t have the chin to handle Lester if he connects. I’ll pick Lester in this one, probably by TKO.

Jason Dent Vs. Cameron Dollar (155) – I haven’t been impressed with Dollar and Dent has determination. I’ll pick Dent.