UFC 121 Thoughts

Was pretty busy, so didn't have time to post my picks. Oops. I know you're all terribly disappointed.

I can give you my quick two cents, though.

Cain Velasquez def. Brock Lesnar (TKO 1)
This fight really exposed Lesnar's chin. He can throw a mean right hand, but he also cowers and covers up at the first sign of strong resistance. Not good. Lesnar need sot get punched in the face a few times by training partners to get over this impulse. His weaknesses seem to be psychological. you need to keep your wits about you when your opponent is standing over you dropping bombs. This is a tough task and requires significant mental discipline. So Velasquez is the new champ. Will it last? I dunno. He's good, but considering how much trouble he had against Cheick Kongo, you'll forgive me if I don't bestow godhood upon him. I could see him getting taken out by a wise veteran like Randy Couture or Frank Mir. Even Shane Carwin has to be foaming at the mouth. What's next for Lesnar? Well, some rest for one. But who else can this guy fight? I mean he's already beaten Couture, Carwin, Mir and Herring, so you can't really put him up against also-rans like Cro Cop or Barry or Kongo... So does Lesnar just keep getting title fights? He'll get a tune-up and, if he wins that, surely he'll get a rematch. But frankly he needs experience. Seven fights ain't much.

Jake Shields def. Martin Kampmann (split)
I wasn't surprised by the decision (unlike others) but I was not impressed by Shields. Does this fight earn him a title fight? Hell no. At least, not in my opinion. Dana White seems to think otherwise. Shields hasn't beaten anyone of significance in the UFC (Kampmann is tough, but not THAT tough) and his Strikeforce/EliteXC days can kiss my ass. How do these welterweights keep getting title fights without having to fight other top contenders? Shields should have to beat Fitch or Koscheck or Hardy or Alves or Hughes or SOMEONE who has fought for the title in the last five years before getting GSP. This is goofy.

Diego Sanchez def. Paulo Thiago (unanimous)
Would the real Diego Sanchez PLEASE stand up? Seriously. Diego has been LOST his last few fights, even if he got a title shot against Penn, but he shows up like a mofo against the very tough Thiago. Where has this guy been? Let's hope he keeps it up. He should still drop to lightweight in my opinion, though.

Matt Hamill def. Tito Ortiz (unanimous)
How long before the UFC cuts Ortiz? Who knows. He is a shadow of his former self, that's for sure. He needs a good camp. He needs someone to show him what he's doing wrong. His style is antiquated and isn't going to get him anywhere. He hasn't won a fight in four years and his two wins prior to that were over the geriatric Ken Shamrock. The UFC keeps Ortiz but cuts the very game Patrick Cote who is coming off an injury layoff and lost to a lay and prayer? Doesn't seem to make much sense... Hamill didn't look THAT good.

Brendan Schaub def. Gabriel Gonzaga (unanimous)
Pretty dull fight. Not a lot of leather thrown and Gonzaga didn't try hard enough to get this to the ground. not sure what his gameplan was.

Court McGee def. Ryan Jensen (sub 2)
McGee looked alright. Needs a lot more seasoning before he moves up the ladder.

Tom Lawlor def. Patrick Cote (unanimous)
Boring as hell. Cote couldn't get past Lawlor's ground game and the ref didn't stand them up enough to save him. Cote gets cut afterwards despite being two fights removed from a title fight (in which he was doing alright against Anderson Silva) and getting pile driven by Alan Belcher. Lawlor lays and prays his way to victory. Let's hope Cote can get his act together and come back.

Daniel Roberts def. Mike Guymon (sub 1)
Roberts looked good. Guymon looked lost.

Sam Stout def. Paul Taylor (split)
Didn't see it. I imagine it was a decent boxing match.

Chris Camozzi def. Dongi Yang (split)
Didn't see it.

Jon Madsen def. Gilbert Yvel (KO 1)
Yvel is in the UFC...why? He sucks. Seriously.

UFC Live: Vera vs Jones Results

Ok, let's see how I did...

Jon Jones def. Brandon Vera (TKO 1) – Jones keeps looking good. The fight itself, like a couple of others, was a bit of a dud, with Vera getting hurt by an elbow and essentially giving up without any sign of blood. He tried his hardest afterwards to sell the fact that he was hurt, though, which didn’t endear him to me. If you’re injured, you don’t have to sell it. I saw Dana White speak at the Toronto Eaton Centre on Tuesday and he didn’t exactly give Vera a vote of confidence, telling the crowd quite seriously that they’d have to think about what to do with Vera next. After another lackluster performance, I think he’s just one step removed from the door. Jones’ next fight will be against a big name like Griffin, Jackson, Evans, Silva or Couture to set him up for a title run next year. (1-0)

Junior Dos Santos def. Gabriel Gonzaga (KO 1) – Dos Santos is another guy who is burning up the charts. This guy is ready for prime time and his next fight could easily be a #1 contender’s fight against the likes of Velasquez, Carwin or Mir, depending on how ugly the picture gets with the ridiculous interim belt. Gonzaga is talented, but his chin has been tested a few times now and it has failed. (2-0)

Cheick Kongo def. Paul Buentello (sub 3) – Kongo looked great, but that’s probably due to the fact that Buentello was the perfect opponent for him. Buentello is a heavy hitter but has zero ground game or wrestling skills, it seems. Kongo was able to dodge any heavy shots and managed to get the fight to the ground where he pretty much lay on top of Buentello and wore him out with some G&P (the submission was due to strikes). Don’t be fooled though: Kongo is still far from being a top contender. Put him up against someone who knows what they’re doing on the ground and he’s screwed. (3-0)

Alessio Sakara def. James Irvin (TKO 1) – Perhaps the most disappointing fight of the night as Irvin cried “No mas” after getting a shot to the eye. If he doesn’t have some sort of severe fracture or dislocation, it would be pretty disappointing (in a sense) because it would mean he just wussed out and couldn’t fight through it. I wonder if his heart was in it. (3-1)

Clay Guida def. Shannon Gugerty (sub 2) – Guida is a monster. The guy just does not stop. He dominated Gugerty. Still, he can’t seem to pull off the big wins – when it matters the most. He’s clearly the gatekeeper to the upper echelons of the lightweight division, though. (4-1)

Vladimir Matyushenko def. Eliot Marshall (split) - I didn’t see this one. Can’t say I was surprised by the result. (5-1)

Darren Elkins def. Duane Ludwig (TKO 1) – This one was stopped 44 seconds in when Ludwig injured his ankle, so it hardly counts. What a waste of a training camp. (5-2)

John Howard def. Daniel Roberts (KO 1) – Roberts looked great, but Howard managed to get in the one heavy punch that turned out the lights. Too bad, ‘cause I sense Roberts is the greater talent. (5-3)

Brendan Schaub def. Chase Gormley (KO 1) – Zoinks, yo. Schaub kicked this guy’s ass like the guy owed him money. That boy has power. (6-3)

Mike Pierce def. Julio Paulino (unanimous) – Didn’t see it, but can’t say I’m surprised. (7-3)

Jason Brilz def. Eric Schafer (unanimous) – Didn’t see it. Again, not shocked. (8-3)

Whoa! 8-3 including that Ludwig dud? I’m definitely psychic.

Stay tuned for my UFC 111 picks – GSP vs Hardy!

UFC 102 Results

Missed the event on Saturday - I was busy getting wine spilled on me at a wedding...

Looks like I missed an entertaining one. Let's see how my predictions went:

Randy Couture Vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (heavyweight) - Sounds like this one lived up to the hype and then some. It appears Couture avoided a gauntlet of submissions to make it to the decision, but the judging wasn't really in doubt. Nog knocked The Natural down a couple of times, which was probably all the difference he needed. I'm a bit surprised that Nogueira got the better of the stand up. I hope they show this fight on UFC Unleashed soon. (0-1)

Keith Jardine Vs. Thiago Silva (light heavyweight) - Got this one right on, pretty much. Silva knocked out Jardine pretty quickly - a story we've seen from Jardine before. Let's hope this is the end of the Jardine title shot talk for a while. He really needs to develop a better arsenal. Being "unorthodox" only gets you so far. (1-1)

Chris Leben Vs. Jake Rosholt (middleweight) - What happened here? I hear Leben was winning the fight but got choked out in the third. Oops. (1-2)

Nate Marquardt Vs. Demian Maia (middleweight) - Wow. This was short-lived. I thought this could be fight of the night, but it was over before it started. Highlight reel finish puts a mark on Maia's record and puts Marquardt back in the title hunt. (2-2)

Brandon Vera Vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (light heavyweight) - I anticipated a better fight. I hear this one drew boos and was one of the few fights to go the distance. Apparently Soszynski did alright in his first fight against "top" competition. Let's hope he can learn from it and put something together for his next fight. Vera isn't making lots of friends these days with boring fights and lacklustre performances. I didn't see this one, but if you're drawing boos, you're drawing the ire of Dana White. (2-3)

Ed Herman Vs. Aaron Simpson (middleweight) - This one almost doesn't count because the fight ended on an injury to Herman. That's too bad 'cause it was a homecoming of sorts and no one likes to see a fight end like this. (2-4)

Gabriel Gonzaga Vs. Chris Tuchscherer (heavyweight) - I picked the newcomer in this one, but he didn't get the job done. (2-5)

Justin McCully Vs. Mike Russow (heavyweight) – The newcomer delivered in this one. I still don't know what Russow can do, though. (3-5)

Tim Hague Vs. Todd Duffee (heavyweight) – Yikes. 8 seconds? Yikes. Dunno if Hague will be invited back. Too bad. (3-6)

Nick Catone Vs. Mark Munoz (middleweight) – Sounds like this was a close decision, but Munoz pulled off the victory in the lighter weight class. (4-6)

Marcus Aurelio Vs. Evan Dunham (lightweight) – Fluked this one, too. No idea what this Dunham kid is like. (5-6)

Another event with a losing record. Ugh. But, like I said, the Herman fight ought not to count, really, and If I were picking with my head instead of my heart I'd have probably gone 8-3.

UFC 102 Predictions

OK, a little busy, but have to get my predictions in before the event on Saturday (which I’m going to miss – darn it!).

Randy Couture Vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (heavyweight)

Both are aging warriors, but Nogueira seems to be showing his age more than Captain America. Neither has looked spectacular in recent showings, though Couture lost to Lesnar (no shame there) while Nogeira hasn’t looked sharp in the octagon at all. Both are known for pulling off victories despite the odds. On paper Nogueira seems to have the edge in size and skill, but I can never count Randy out. He seems to always come in with a good game plan and I think he’ll find a way to squeeze this one out.

My money’s on: Couture.

Keith Jardine Vs. Thiago Silva (light heavyweight)

Frankly, I can’t believe people still talk about Jardine being “in the title mix”. He’s beaten some good fighters but he’s lost more than his fair share of fights and to guys one would expect an elite fighter to beat. He seems like a nice guy and I used to be a fan, but I’m getting a little tired of the unwarranted hype. I’m almost hoping Silva sends him packing to clear up the light heavy division. I can see Silva knocking Jardine out.

My money’s on: Silva.

Chris Leben Vs. Jake Rosholt (middleweight)

Leben is a psycho but a tough son of a gun. He’s always willing to bang, but can easily be outsmarted by a good game plan. Rosholt doesn’t seem like much, so if Leben wants to stick around, he had better find a way to knock this guy out.

My money’s on: Leben.

Nate Marquardt Vs. Demian Maia (middleweight)

Could be fight of the night. Probably the two most skilled guys on the card. I like Marquardt but for whatever reason he seems to come up a bit short in big fights. This is a doozy as it will probably be a #1 contenders fight. Maia is talented but has some holes – had Jason MacDonald fought a smarter fight against him, Maia probably would have lost. I don’t see Marquardt getting submitted.

My money’s on: Marquardt.

Brandon Vera Vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (light heavyweight)

I’m peeved I’m gonna miss this one. This could be great. I’m a fan of “The Polish Experiment” and like his style and humour. Vera got a big push when he first came to the UFC but has suffered some massive setbacks since. Is he once again ready for prime time? If he loses, he may very well be shown the door. I’m hoping Krzysztof pulls it off and keeps his streak alive.

My money’s on: Soszynski.

Ed Herman Vs. Aaron Simpson (middleweight)

Herman is talented but needs to learn greater discipline. He’s got the tools but needs to get his head straight and in the game. Don’t know much about this Simpson guy, but apparently he has some killer knockout power, winning all of his fights by KO/TKO. Look for Herman to shoot and test Simpson’s ground game.

My money’s on: Herman (if he’s smart).

Gabriel Gonzaga Vs. Chris Tuchscherer (heavyweight)

Gonzaga is another guy who got a big push early thanks to a big win over Cro Cop but has not been stellar since. His opponent has a terrific record (17-1) and will probably get an equally large push if he defeats Napao. I think this fight may come down to where it takes place. I’d give Gonzaga the edge on the ground, Tuchscherer the edge standing up.

My money’s on: Tuchscherer in a tough one – if he can overcome first UFC fight nerves.

Justin McCully Vs. Mike Russow (heavyweight) – Could be interesting. Both of these guys seem to have a good amount of submission wins, which is rare for heavyweights. I’ll pick Russow to pull it off in his UFC debut.

Tim Hague Vs. Todd Duffee (heavyweight) – No way I’m banking against the Canadian who had an impressive victory last time out. Duffee is undefeated in only 4 fights, but his last victory was over Assuerio Silva who is no slouch. I’m still picking Hague.

Nick Catone Vs. Mark Munoz (middleweight) – Looks like Munoz is looking to drop a weight class. Catone has lost to Tim Credeur while Munoz got bulldozed by Matt Hamill. What effect will the weight cut have on Munoz? The answer to that will probably determine the winner. I’ll bet on Munoz.

Marcus Aurelio Vs. Evan Dunham (lightweight) – Aurelio has gotten lots of praise coming into the UFC, but he’s lost against all the top guys he’s faced (Guida, Franca, Tyson Griffin). Once again, I’m picking the new guy, Dunham, to pull off the upset.

UFC 99 - Preview

This weekend, the UFC travels to Cologne, Germany for what ought to be a very entertaining card.

Rich Franklin vs Wanderlei Silva (195lbs)

This catch weight fight features two guys who need to win. There’s a reason this card is dubbed “The Comeback”. The winner will see their stock rise and perhaps even earn a title shot, whereas the loser will be facing retirement questions.

Silva is on his way down to middleweight (185 lbs) while Franklin has already started his transition to the light heavyweight division (205 lbs). If Silva can pull off the upset, he may very well get a title shot against bitter rival Anderson Silva, thanks in no small part to the fact that every other middleweight seems to be powerless against Silva. (Silva is like the Tiger Woods of that division - everyone is waiting for a serious challenger to appear from the wilderness.) If Franklin wins, he has de-throned a legend and puts himself in the light heavyweight title mix (if he wasn’t there already). The light heavyweight division is stacked, but title shots seem to be thrown around like tic tacs (Mauricio Rua…I’m looking in your direction…) so Franklin could easily see himself in a main event in three months or so.

My money’s on: Franklin. Wanderlei has crazy power, but not much reach. Franklin is younger, faster and smarter and will figure out a way to neutralize the disco-loving freak.

Cheick Kongo Vs. Cain Velasquez (205 lbs)

This fight could be the worst of the night if Kongo stays true to form. Despite wins, he probably hasn’t had a title shot because, quite frankly, he’s boring as hell. If he sits on Velasquez for three rounds, he may very well get the win, but a title shot? I dunno. I sense the UFC doesn’t like his style, either.

My money’s on: Kongo. Boooooooring.

Mike Swick Vs. Ben Saunders (170 lbs)

A battle of tall lanky guys that could end quick. Both of these guys seem to enjoy throwing. I wasn’t impressed with Saunders on the reality show, but he’s been looking pretty good since. I’m a fan of Swick’s though, and he needs this win.

My money’s on: Swick. I see an entertaining fight ending with Swick knocking Saunders on his ass.

Marcus Davis Vs. Dan Hardy (170 lbs)

This could be fight of the night. I like Davis’ style, but I like Hardy’s reach. Hardy has proven he has power, too, but Davis has heart. We’ve seen Davis get knocked on his butt and come back for the W; I don’t know if Hardy can do the same.

My money’s on: Davis. Hardy will give him a run for his money, but Davis will win if he can get inside or take Hardy down. If he wins, hopefully the UFC will give the ageing Davis a real name opponent before he retires!

Spencer Fisher Vs. Caol Uno (155 lbs)

Where the heck has Uno been? He ain’t the fighter he used to be, but maybe he’s still got some juice left in him. Spencer is proven winner, though, and can withstand the best opponents can dish out.

My money’s on: Fisher. Look for him to start moving up to the top of the ladder after this one. The UFC has denied this guy’s talent for too long.

Mirko Cro Cop Filipovic Vs. Mostapha Al Turk (205 lbs)

Talk about a must win. Cro Cop’s rep has taken a beating in the past coupe of years after losses to Gabriel Gonzaga (in spectacular fashion) and Cheick Kongo (boooooring). If the UFC is ever to see the dream card of Cro Cop fighting for a belt, he has to start wining fast. Al Turk is clearly a sacrificial lamb, but so was Gonzaga once upon a time.

My money’s on: Cro Cop. Barely. This could be another boring fight if the larger Al Turk takes Cro Cop down, but if it stays standing, Cro Cop could deliver a highlight finish or at least win on points via strikes. This is definitely the iffy fight of the night.

Other matches:

Terry Etim Vs. Justin Buchholz (155 lbs) – don’t know much about Buchholz, but Etim has impressed. I’m picking Etim.

Dennis Siver Vs. Dale Hartt (155 lbs) – Going with experience. That means Siver over Hartt.

Paul Taylor Vs. Peter Sobotta (170 lbs) – Sobotta doesn’t even have a photo on the UFC website. That doesn’t bode well. Taylor losing would be upset of the night material. Taking Taylor to smoke the new guy.

Paul Kelly Vs. Rolando Delgado (155 lbs) – I like Rolando, but the shy kid is gonna get slaughtered by the tough Kelly.

Denis Stojnic Vs. Stefan Struve (205 lbs) – Who versus who? Holy crap; Stojnic is 5’11” & 235 lbs while “Skyscraper" Struve is 238 lbs and – get this – 6’11”!! Wow. Both have impressive records which means I’m taking the giant who knows how to win.

John Hathaway Vs. Rick Story (170 lbs) – Two more strangers with good records, but I’ll take the undefeated guy who at least has a photo. That means Hathaway over Story.