UFC Rio (134) Results

Hm. Think I took a bath on this one... Let's see.

Anderson Silva def. Yushin Okami (KO 2)
Honestly. What are these guys thinking? I'm big, I'm a wrestler, I think I'll stand and bang with Anderson Silva. Are you f***ing retarded? Think. We know wrestling works against Silva - why do people insist on standing back and waiting to be knocked out? Ridiculous. Waste of a fight. (1-0)

Mauricio Rua def. Forrest Griffin (KO 1)
Again, what was this guy thinking? Griffin should have taken down Rua fast and worn him out, but instead stands with another heavy hitter and gets put on his ass. Way to go. Anyone else think Forrest might retire soon? Although I'm not sure what else he'd do... (1-1)

Minotauro Nogueira def. Brendan Schaub (KO 1)
Schaub had Nogueira hurt but couldn't finish before getting caught. Schaub doesn't make the leap into the top echelon of the division, but still looked like he could hang with Nogueira. (1-2)

Edson Barboza def. Ross Pearson (split)
Finally an upset that paid off. Pearson pressed the action, but Barboza had the more effective strikes, I thought. I gave it to him on a thin decision. (2-2)

Stanislav Nedkov def. Luiz Cane (TKO 1)
Cane looked good early and had Nedkov on the ropes but did not finish and got caught. (2-3)

Thiago Tavares def. Spencer Fisher (TKO 2)
Fisher is in trouble, dropping too many of these fights. The stoppage may have been premature, what with Fisher taking no damage (though he was turtled), but he wasn't exactly lighting up Tavares. (2-4)

Rousimar Palhares def. Dan Miller (unanimous)
Palhares looked as good as you can without finishing a fight. He didn't seem to go for too many submissions but he beat the crap out of Miller for most of the fight and got either two 10-8s or an unheard-of 10-7 from one judge. (3-4)

Paulo Thiago def. David Mitchell (unanimous)
Didn't see it, but it sounds like Thiago dominated. (4-4)

Raphael Assuncao def. Johnny Eduardo (unanimous)
Assuncao didn't impress much, it seems, but got the nod in the end. The fight might have been closer than the scorecards suggested. These failed upsets are killing me! (4-5)

Yuri Alcantara def. Felipe Arantes (unanimous)
Whatever. (5-5)

Yves Jabouin def. Ian Loveland (split)
This fight was close, it seems, with Loveland providing wrestling while Jabouin looked for highlight finishes. Strangely, Jabouin gets the decision despite one judge giving all three rounds to Loveland. (6-5)

Somehow I missed the Erick Silva vs Luis Ramos fight in my picks. This had a wicked KO with Silva getting the win.

So, 6-5 is not terrible and better than I thought I was going to do, considering many of my upsets didn't pan out. I'm not gonna celebrate, though. :P

UFC Rio picks

So apparently this event is so cool that they aren't giving it a number? Whatever. (It's UFC 134) Let's get to the picks.

Anderson Silva vs Yushin Okami (middleweight)
It's nearly impossible to go against Silva these days, especially because few fighters in the division have the tools to beat him. Sonnen is at least one fight away, so Silva gets another sacrifice. Does Okami have a chance? Sure, if he presses the action. But I bet he gets KTFO before he gets close. I'm picking Silva.

Forrest Griffin vs Mauricio Rua (light heavyweight)
I hate betting against Griffin, but I don't like his chances in this one. Rua is coming off big fights while Griffin has been MIA promoting books and such. Still, I'll pick Forrest just so that I don't root against him.

Brendan Schaub vs Minotauro Nogueira (heavyweight)
Schaub has KO power and that's his key to victory. He won't outwrestle Nogueira and he certainly can't BJJ the guy. Can Nog get Schaub down? Maybe. But I think Nogueira is way past his prime these days and Schaub will connect. I'm picking Schaub in the upset.

Ross Pearson vs Edson Barboza (lightweight)
I like Pearson, but he isn't god's gift to MMA. Barboza is relatively unknown but TKO's guys with kicks! That's crazy. This ought to be a slugfest and I'm picking Barboza.

Luiz Cane vs Stanislav Nedkov (heavyweight)
Stanislov who? The guy hasn't fought in over a year and was rarely fighting before that. Great record, but you'd think he'd need more seasoning... Anyhow, he's a BJJ black belt and knocks guys out fast. But with the ring rust... Cane is dangerous but has underperformed in the past. He, too, is a BJJ black belt with KO power. Not sure where to go here. I'll pick experience and go with Cane.

Thiago Tavares vs Spencer Fisher (lightweight)
Could be fight of the night. Both of these guys were impressive a few years ago, but have fallen on hard times since. I expect this to go to decision with Fisher getting the nod.

Rousimar Palhares vs Dan Miller (middleweight)
Both of these guys have black belts in BJJ but Palhares is on a different level. His kneebars and ankle locks are sick. Can Miller avoid them? We'll see. I'll pick Palhares.

Paulo Thiago vs David Mitchell (welterweight)
Thiago was a rising star not so long ago, but has lost two in a row - usually signifying a must win match. Mitchell is a submissions guy who won a decision in his UFC debut. I think he's being thrown to the wolves here, though - I'll pick Thiago.

Raphael Assuncao vs Johnny Eduardo (featherweight)
Assuncao is a bit of a name, though he has lost a few recently. Eduardo is a nobody but has a string of victories and is used to fighting in Brazil. Neither of these guys blows me away. I'll go with the upset again and pick Eduardo.

Yuri Alcantara vs Felipe Arantes (featherweight)
This is getting ridiculous. The UFC featherweight division is so thin that neither of these guys has a profile on the website. Alcantara has a sick record and finishes guys fast. Arantes doesn't even appear on Wikipedia. Fuck that guy, I'm picking Alcantara.

Yves Jabouin vs Ian Loveland (bantamweight)
Loveland has been doing well recently and has some power, but gets submitted easily. Good thing for him, Jabouin is a striker, too. Jabouin really needs a win. Since I hate going against Canadians, even transplanted ones, I'll pick Jabouin.

UFC 121 Thoughts

Was pretty busy, so didn't have time to post my picks. Oops. I know you're all terribly disappointed.

I can give you my quick two cents, though.

Cain Velasquez def. Brock Lesnar (TKO 1)
This fight really exposed Lesnar's chin. He can throw a mean right hand, but he also cowers and covers up at the first sign of strong resistance. Not good. Lesnar need sot get punched in the face a few times by training partners to get over this impulse. His weaknesses seem to be psychological. you need to keep your wits about you when your opponent is standing over you dropping bombs. This is a tough task and requires significant mental discipline. So Velasquez is the new champ. Will it last? I dunno. He's good, but considering how much trouble he had against Cheick Kongo, you'll forgive me if I don't bestow godhood upon him. I could see him getting taken out by a wise veteran like Randy Couture or Frank Mir. Even Shane Carwin has to be foaming at the mouth. What's next for Lesnar? Well, some rest for one. But who else can this guy fight? I mean he's already beaten Couture, Carwin, Mir and Herring, so you can't really put him up against also-rans like Cro Cop or Barry or Kongo... So does Lesnar just keep getting title fights? He'll get a tune-up and, if he wins that, surely he'll get a rematch. But frankly he needs experience. Seven fights ain't much.

Jake Shields def. Martin Kampmann (split)
I wasn't surprised by the decision (unlike others) but I was not impressed by Shields. Does this fight earn him a title fight? Hell no. At least, not in my opinion. Dana White seems to think otherwise. Shields hasn't beaten anyone of significance in the UFC (Kampmann is tough, but not THAT tough) and his Strikeforce/EliteXC days can kiss my ass. How do these welterweights keep getting title fights without having to fight other top contenders? Shields should have to beat Fitch or Koscheck or Hardy or Alves or Hughes or SOMEONE who has fought for the title in the last five years before getting GSP. This is goofy.

Diego Sanchez def. Paulo Thiago (unanimous)
Would the real Diego Sanchez PLEASE stand up? Seriously. Diego has been LOST his last few fights, even if he got a title shot against Penn, but he shows up like a mofo against the very tough Thiago. Where has this guy been? Let's hope he keeps it up. He should still drop to lightweight in my opinion, though.

Matt Hamill def. Tito Ortiz (unanimous)
How long before the UFC cuts Ortiz? Who knows. He is a shadow of his former self, that's for sure. He needs a good camp. He needs someone to show him what he's doing wrong. His style is antiquated and isn't going to get him anywhere. He hasn't won a fight in four years and his two wins prior to that were over the geriatric Ken Shamrock. The UFC keeps Ortiz but cuts the very game Patrick Cote who is coming off an injury layoff and lost to a lay and prayer? Doesn't seem to make much sense... Hamill didn't look THAT good.

Brendan Schaub def. Gabriel Gonzaga (unanimous)
Pretty dull fight. Not a lot of leather thrown and Gonzaga didn't try hard enough to get this to the ground. not sure what his gameplan was.

Court McGee def. Ryan Jensen (sub 2)
McGee looked alright. Needs a lot more seasoning before he moves up the ladder.

Tom Lawlor def. Patrick Cote (unanimous)
Boring as hell. Cote couldn't get past Lawlor's ground game and the ref didn't stand them up enough to save him. Cote gets cut afterwards despite being two fights removed from a title fight (in which he was doing alright against Anderson Silva) and getting pile driven by Alan Belcher. Lawlor lays and prays his way to victory. Let's hope Cote can get his act together and come back.

Daniel Roberts def. Mike Guymon (sub 1)
Roberts looked good. Guymon looked lost.

Sam Stout def. Paul Taylor (split)
Didn't see it. I imagine it was a decent boxing match.

Chris Camozzi def. Dongi Yang (split)
Didn't see it.

Jon Madsen def. Gilbert Yvel (KO 1)
Yvel is in the UFC...why? He sucks. Seriously.

UFC 115 Results

I missed this one, but let's see how I did.

Rich Franklin def. Chuck Liddell (KO 1)
I switched my pick and chose Liddell 'cause I didn't wanna root for his demise. But it came, and in surprising fashion as Franklin got the KO. Liddell's chin is glass now and he ought to retire. Too bad. (0-1)

Mirko Cro Cop Filipovic def. Pat Barry (sub 3)
Shocking ending as Cro Cop gets a submission. It looks like this was an entertaining fight, though, with the sluggers doing just that for the majority of the three rounds. Eventually, it was Barry who withered and the vet took over. Good for him. Barry will rebound. (0-2)

Martin Kampmann def. Paulo Thiago (unanimous)
Ouch. (0-3)

Ben Rothwell def. Gilbert Yvel (unanimous)
Finally - a win! (1-3)

Carlos Condit def. Rory MacDonald (TKO 3)
Apparently MacDonald was winning until he got finished in the third with 7 seconds left! Ouch. (2-3)

Evan Dunham def. Tyson Griffin (split)
I'm sorry I missed these fights. (3-3)

Matt Wiman def. Mac Danzig (sub 1)
Controversy here as Danzig didn't tap. Yves Lavigne thought Danzig was out, but the guillotine was only covering one side. The thing is, though, that Danzig did not respond when Lavigne tried to determine whether he was unconcious. That lack of response prompted Lavigne to watch out for the fighter's safety and he stopped the fight. A rematch is in the works for sure, giving Danzig a reprieve from the chopping block. He's clearly not a top-notch fighter, though. (4-3)

Mario Miranda def. David Loiseau (TKO 2)
Again, I was pulling for a guy who wasn't likely to win. Too bad for Loiseau. (4-4)

James Wilks def. Peter Sobotta (unanimous)
Didn't see it. (5-4)

Claude Patrick def. Ricardo Funch (sub 2)
Patrick looked pretty good, I have to say. (6-4)

Mike Pyle def. Jesse Lennox (sub 3)
Didn't see it. (7-4)

Didn't do well on the main card, but not bad overall.

UFC 115 Picks

Unfortunately, I'm likely to miss this one, so my post-fight analysis may be lacking, but I'm still gonna put in some picks.

Chuck Liddell vs Rich Franklin (light heavyweight)
This is a tough fight. It’s the end of the line for one of these two fighters. There’s very little upside. If Franklin wins, he beat the semi-retired Liddell and it does little to move him up the 205 ladder. If Chuck wins, he beat a guy who really hasn’t established himself as a light heavyweight so it probably doesn’t get him in title contention quickly enough to reclaim the belt before retirement claims him. It would also be devastating for Franklin’s career. His best hope after that would be to drop back down to 185 and hope Anderson Silva moves up to 205. This fight ends in one of two ways: Liddell KO or Franklin by decision. Any other way, and I’d be pretty shocked. Liddell’s style is poorly suited to getting enough points to score a decision and Franklin rarely KOs an opponent. Franklin managed to survive against the berserker attack of Wanderlei Silva, but Liddell is much more precise, patient striker. Can Liddell catch Franklin within 15 minutes? Tough call. Franklin doesn’t have the best chin, so one big shot might be enough. It’s 50/50 in my book, but I’ll pick…Liddell for fun (just 'cause if he loses, it's over).

Mirko Cro Cop Filipovic vs Pat Barry (heavyweight)
Cro Cop’s heart has seemingly disappeared, but for once he’s fighting a guy who is smaller than he is – that means he has a chance. But Barry has insane power. This ought to be fun. I’ll pick Barry.

Paulo Thiago vs Martin Kampmann (welterweight)
Could be Fight of the Night. These guys are smart, skilled and usually put on a good show. Thiago’s only loss is to Jon Fitch by decision – no shame there. He KO’d Koscheck who is now getting a title fight (how do you figure?). Kampmann also has a stellar record. I’m gonna pick Thiago.

Ben Rothwell vs Gilbert Yvel (heavyweight)
A battle of two underachievers. Rothwell was an IFL champ but has lost to Cain Velasquez in his UFC debut and Andrei Arlovski not long before that. Yvel has a decent record, but has fought lots of guys who were smaller than him (and lost some). He looked like garbage against Junior Dos Santos. These guys need to make an impression if they wanna stick around in the UFC. Look for the KO and look for Rothwell to get it.

Carlos Condit vs Rory MacDonald (welterweight)
Condit was a big deal in the WEC. So far, I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid. He represents a massive step up for MacDonald, though. Both guys have decent records and lots of submission victories. I hate to go against the Canadian, but I bet Condit the veteran finds a way to stay clamer and secure the submission. I’m picking Condit.

Tyson Griffin vs Evan Dunham (lightweight)
Both of these guys have a wrestling background, but Dunham has jiu jitsu to boot. They both have great records with impressive victories, but Dunham is undefeated and finishes fights whereas Griffin goes to a decision far too often. I’m picking Dunham.

Mac Danzig vs Matt Wiman (lightweight)
Danzig has some horseshoes up his butt to still be around in the UFC. But he’s a TUF darling, so it shouldn’t be that much of a surprise, I guess. Wiman was on the “TUF for losers” season, and came out looking pretty good, but he, too, is in danger of getting cut if he doesn’t get his act together. Both have lost to Jim Miller, with some nice wins and tough losses thrown in. I don’t know if Wiman can pull it off, but I’ll pulling for him ‘cause I’m sick of Danzig. I got Wiman.

David Loiseau vs Mario Miranda (middleweight)
I’m gonna be pulling for Loiseau, but let’s see if he has a chance. Miranda has a great record with a couple of notable wins but nothing too special. Loiseau has been doing well outside of the UFC but hasn’t had much success in the octagon lately. This is his big chance to make a splash in front of a partisan Canadian crowd. Miranda is a wrestler and jiu jitsu guy which is very dangerous and could mean a decision loss for Loiseau. Still, like I said, I’m pulling for him, so I got Loiseau.

James Wilks vs Peter Sobotta (welterweight)
Both have submissions skills but Sobotta also has power. Wilks seems slightly larger but that likely won’t be much of a factor. This could turn into a wrestling match, in which case Wilks’ muay thai could come into play. I’m gonna pick Wilks.

Ricardo Funch vs Claude Patrick (welterweight)
And now the silly picks. I don’t know much about either of these two. They have decent records but Patrick has loads of submissions. I’ll pick the Canadian and go with Patrick.

Mike Pyle vs Jesse Lennox (welterweight)
Despite a nice record, Pyle has lost just about every big fight he’s been in. Sure, he beat Jon Fitch, but that was in Fitch’s first pro fight and it was at 205 lbs. Of course Pyle’s first fight was against Rampage Jackson! Lennox, meanwhile has had only one semi-meaningful fight, losing to Rick Story. I’m picking the more experienced Pyle.

Could be a fun event, even though there aren't too many big names attached.