UFC 141 Picks

Alright, quick and dirty. I'm on vacation and thinking hurts my brain.

Brock Lesnar vs Alistair Overeem (heavyweight)

Lesnar has very little chance in this one, I figure. Sure, he may get Overeem down and pound him, but I think it far more likely Overeem will punch Lesnar in the jaw and it'll be over. Overeem has way too much experience to get overwhelmed by Lesnar. I'm picking Overeem.

Nate Diaz vs Donald Cerrone (lightweight)

This could be a great scrap. I see Cerrone taking it though since he's the smarter fighter. A win here ought to put him in the title picture. An upset by Diaz would be huge for him, I think. I'm picking Cerrone.

Jon Fitch vs Johny Hendricks (welterweight)

The long layoff could really hurt Fitch in what ought to be a great fight. I like both of these guys, but Fitch is a machine. Assuming he comes back 100%, I think he gets the better of the very game Hendricks. I'm picking Fitch.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs Alexander Gustafson (light heavyweight)

Every time I count the Janitor out he surprises me. But Gustafson has a promising career ahead of him and this is a good test. I'm picking Gustafson.

Nam Phan vs Jimy Hettes (featherweight)

Jimy who? You might think that, but this guy is actually undefeated and is a submissions machine. Phan is decent but has flaws. He has way more experience but I'm gonna bet he underestimates his opponent and gets submitted. That's my upset special of the night. I'm picking Hettes.

Ross Pearson vs Junior Assuncao (featherweight)

I like Pearson and Asuncao has disappointed me in the past. But this is a featherweight fight. Pearson ought to have the standup advantage but if Assuncao can get this to the ground, he has a very good chance. This is a tough call. I'm gonna pick Assuncao in a bit of an upset.

Anthony Njokuani vs Danny Castillo (lightweight)

I'm getting tired. I'm picking Njokuani.

Dong Hyun Kim vs Sean Pierson (welterweight)

Hate going against the Canadian, but... I'm picking Kim.

Jacob Volkmann vs Efrain Escudero (lightweight)

Escudero has stumbled a bit since winning TUF8, even getting cut from the UFC. He is a replacement for an injured fighter in this one. Volkmann has disappointed me in the past. This is a matchup of wrestlers, but I could see Volkmann getting the submission. I'm picking Volkmann.

Matthew Riddle vs Luis Ramos (welterweight)

Ramos is essentially a nobody, but he has a better record than Riddle. With 3 losses in his last 5 fights, this could be do or die for Riddle in the UFC. I think he dies. I'm picking Ramos.

Manny Gamburyan vs Diego Nunes (featherweight)

Gamburyan lost my respect with that BS with Jeff Cox so I like it when he fights good fighters - it means I can pick against him. I'm picking Nunes.

UFC 139 Results

This was a great card and from what I saw it did not disappoint.

Dan Henderson def. Maurcio Rua (unanimous)
What's a UFC event without controversy? Dan Henderson did very well for the first three rounds and then proceeded to shut it down and get his ass handed to him by Shogun Rua for the next ten minutes. Fortunately for him, the judges gave him 3 out of the 5 rounds and he got the unanimous decision. So where's the controversy? Well, if there was EVER an argument for a 10-8 (or even 10-7) round, Rua's utter dominance of Hendo in round #5 was it. Rua SLAUGHTERED Henderson for five full minutes. Shame on Rua for not finding a way to end it (submission, anyone?) but you HAD to give him 10-8 or better. Not ONE judge gave him the 10-8 margin, though, which would have made all the difference. I had it 47-47 and a draw - a fitting end to a fight that was so evenly matched overall. These guys deserve to go at it again. A win for Hendo was a bit disgraceful, considering how pathetic he looked for the final two rounds. And if he gets a TITLE SHOT after this?! Please. No one tuning in half way through could have possibly imagined the man on the bottom, getting relentlessly pummeled, could have POSSIBLY won that fight. Chalk another on up to bizarre judging. (0-1)

Wanderlei Silva def. Cung Le (TKO 2)
Wow. This was awesome. Silva looked tentative and nervous at first, and hung out on the periphery while Le measured him. But then Silva started letting his shots go and the tide turned quickly. Le has a questionable gas tank and Silva exploited it in the second round. In the end, Silva was just too much and Le was messed up. Great fight between two free swingers. (1-1)

Urijah Faber def. Brian Bowles (sub 2)
Give Faber credit for getting the submission against a tough opponent. Thanks to this, Faber will get YET ANOTHER title shot. Is there a fighter in MMA who gets more credit for wins than Faber? I dunno. Maybe other guys should get a shot once in a while? (1-2)

Martin Kampmann def. Rick Story (split)
Controversy again, in my mind. Story MAY have won round one, but who in their right mind had him winning one of the last two rounds? Kampmann clearly won those two. A split decision does not do Kampmann's win justice. This should have been at least 29-28 across the board. (2-2)

Stephan Bonnar def. Kyle Kingsbury (unanimous)
Bonnar fought smart (but dull) while Kingsbury honestly just did not show up. I thought Kingsbury would have an advantage in the wrestling department, but Bonnar flat-out schooled his less experienced opponent. Once Bonnar got on top, he used his underrated jiujitsu to secure the win. This was a big step back for Kingsbury. (2-3)

Ryan Bader def. Jason Brilz (KO 1)
Quick fight. Bader used his power, clipped Brilz behind the ear and it was all over. Puts Bader back on track. Look for him to get put back on the fast track with a much tougher opponent. (3-3)

Michael McDonald def. Alex Soto (KO 1)
McDonald looked great. He used his stand-up effectively and Soto got KTFO in under one minute. Things are looking up for the youngster. (4-3)

Chris Weidman def. Tom Lawlor (sub 1)
Weidman continues to surprise and look good. Lawlor is no push over, but Weidman seemed to finish him with ease. This kid has lots of potential. (5-3)

Gleison Tibau def. Rafael Dos Anjos (split)
Didn't see it. Fight metrics show Tibau got in more shots and a couple of take downs. (6-3)

Miguel Angel Torres def. Nick Pace (unanimous)
Didn't see it. Looks like it may have been the mismatch I expected. (7-3)

Seth Baczynski def. Matt Brown (sub 2)
This wasn't pretty, but it went the way I thought it would. Brown likes to swing and throw knees inside but he doesn't seem to have the complete game that is needed. He tends to get caught somehow and he did here, once again. Too bad. (8-3)

Danny Castillo def. Shamar Bailey (TKO 1)
Debatable early stoppage - especially with 8 seconds left in the round - but Bailey was pulling the turtle and was warned by the ref to fight back. Castillo pretty much dominated. (9-3)

Not bad!

UFC 139 Picks

I didn't bother making picks for UFC on Fox. It was a pretty crap card aside from the main event and the Henderson-Guida fight, which was awesome. Some people didn't give Dos Santos much of a chance against Velasquez, but it came as no surprise to me that he won. Velasquez had never really had his chin tested, except a bit against Kongo when he got rocked but recovered. I knew that if Dos Santos could stuff the takedowns he'd have a pretty good chance. Turns out he only had to stuff one before getting the big KO.

But now it's on to a real card - UFC 139. Let's get to it.

Dan Henderson vs. Maurcio Rua (light heavyweight)
So Hendo is back in the UFC and still can't seem to settle on a weight class. I think he'd have more success as a middleweight, personally, but if he wants to take on bigger guys, good for him. This is a huge fight for him. If he wins, he's right back in the title picture. If he loses, though, a lot of people will say he has lost it and point to his loss to Jake Shields as proof, despite his more recent victory over previously highly-touted Fedor Emelianenko. Rua is coming off his gimme win over Forrest Griffin (another no-win scenario fight for Griffin to take) and is looking to get back in the title hunt after getting smoked by current champ Jon Bones Jones. Both of these guys have power. Hendo has wrestling going for him, which appears to be a bit of a weakness for Rua. But Rua is smarter, more skilled, and has BJJ on his side. Can Hendo get Rua down? I dunno. I see this as a stand up war. I see Rua getting the decision. I'm picking Rua.

Cung Lee vs Wanderlei Silva (middleweight)
Silva has lost 6 of 8. Normally, that would get you kicked out of the UFC, but the UFC likes keeping legends around. This, again, falls into the category of guys getting fights for who they are not what they are. But Lee is not exactly a top level opponent at this time, so he has a chance. Lee has been away from MMA, pursuing an acting career. Frankly, the only reason we know his name is because he was a big fish in the small Strikeforce pond. For the most part, he has fought guys who couldn't cut it in the UFC. Sure, his record is good, but it's inflated, much like Fedor's. He's flashy and can throw punches and kicks from crazy angles, but can he withstand a Silva berserker attack. Silva isn't exactly known for fighting smart, so it remains to be seen if he can execute a proper gameplan. I could see Lee getting a decision, but Silva getting a KO. I don't like Silva's chances, but I'm gonna pick him anyway. I'm going with Silva.

Brian Bowles vs Urijah Faber (bantamweight)
This could be fight of the night. Talented, relentless guys in a speedy weight class. Faber is the name, but Bowles is the favourite in my mind. Frankly, I think Faber is overrated. Sure, he puts in the effort, but he seems to worry too much about putting on a good show and not enough about winning smart. I'm picking Bowles.

Martin Kampmann vs Rick Story (welterweight)
Another good fight. Both of these guys have done well and were on the rise before getting derailed. On paper, Kampmann is the more talented, well-rounded fighter. Story has shown, though, that he can overcome odds and upset favoured opponents. Still, I think Kampmann will fight smart and get the W. I'm picking Kampmann.

Stephan Bonnar vs Kyle Kingsbury (light heavyweight)
Another terrific match-up. This could be a war. Kingsbury is a beast, but does not necessarily fight smart. Bonnar is a relentless machine who takes punishment and keeps coming. This is not likely to be the prettiest fight of the night, but it's another FOTN candidate. If Kingsbury is smart, this could be a walk in the park - he just needs to take Bonnar down and keep him there. Boxing would be a mistake. I like Bonnar and all, but I'm picking Kingsbury in a disappointingly dull decision.

Ryan Bader vs Jason Brilz (light heavyweight)
How the mighty have fallen. Bader was considered a very strong up-and-comer until he ran into current champ Jon Jones and got slaughtered. Then the got submitted by a very fortunate Tito Ortiz and suddenly he's on the undercard. On paper, this is a mismatch in Bader's favour. He has more skills than Brilz, a better record, and he has beaten guys Brilz has lost to. So, no surprise, I'm picking Bader.

Michael McDonald vs Alex Soto (bantamweight)
Alex Soto is a replacement for Johnny Eduardo and is in tough against the more experienced McDonald. I'm picking McDonald.

Tom Lawlor vs Chris Weidman (middleweight)
Weidman is pretty raw, but has been impressive. Lawlor has talent, but has been upset more than once. Lawlor should have the experience edge, but he's fighting a guy who is also a wrestler, so he can't really rely on his top strength. I'm gonna go with the upset and pick Weidman.

Gleison Tibau vs Rafael Dos Anjos (lightweight)
Tibau is back again. I never know what to make of this guy. Sometimes he looks great, other times he looks awful. Dos Anjos is super talented at BJJ, but Tibau has some skills, too. Tibau is likely better ion the feet, though, which is where this fight will likely remain. Tough call. I'll pick the more experienced Tibau.

Miguel Angel Torres vs Nick Pace (bantamweight)
Speaking of fallen mighties...Holy cow. Torres was a big shot in WEC and a champ they thought would be on top forever. Suddenly he's near the bottom of the undercard? I guess losing 3 of 5 will do that. And how does a guys who is 38-4 get a fight against a guy who is 6-2? I thought they had commissions for this very reason. If Pace wins, I think it'll be a serious upset and perhaps the beginning of the end for Torres' long career. I'm picking Torres.

Matt Brown vs Seth Baczynski (welterweight)
Brown is a likable guy, but to be honest he simply isn't that good. After losing three in a row, he avoided being cut and got a win over John Howard. Baczynski is bigger than Brown and knows submissions - something by which Brown is prone to getting defeated. I'm picking Baczynski.

Shamar Bailey vs Danny Castillo (lightweight)
Bailey is known to TUF fans where he was favoured but did not reach the finals. Castillo does not have Bailey's celebrity, but he does have a more impressive resume, having fought some of the top dogs in the lightweight division. In fact, his only losses are against top guys, with the exception perhaps of Jacob Volkmann to whom he lost 29-28 on all cards. Both are wrestlers, but Castillo is also a striker. I'm gonna pick the upset and take Castillo.

Great card. I hope I get to see it!

UFC 138 Results

Ok, let's check the results...

Mark Munoz def. Chris Leben (TKO 2)
Cut or no cut, you could tell Leben's heart was not in this one. He said afterwards that he just didn't have the mad-on for Munoz like he normally does because he likes Munoz too much. Leben could have continued, surely - Koscheck fought for 4 rounds with a busted orbital bone - but he quit. Based on his comments after the fight, Leben is considering retirement. (1-0)

Renan Barao def. Brad Pickett (sub1)
Pickett was chucking leather, but Barao was more accurate. When he finally clipped Pickett with the big knee, it was just a matter of time before he found a way to finish the fight. Barao looked pretty good. (2-0)

Thiago Alves def. Papy Abedi (sub 1)
Another one where big shots led to a submission. Alves didn't look great but he got the win. Abedi didn't look bad, he just bit off more than he could chew in his UFC debut. (3-0)

Terry Etim def. Edward Faaloloto (sub 1)
Mismatch. Etim was the much better, smarter fighter and won easily. (4-0)

Anthony Perosh def. Cyrille Diabate (sub 2)
Neither one of these guys looked good. Diabate was doing well in the stand up, but once it went to the ground he was lost. (4-1)

John Maguire def. Justin Edwards (unanimous)
Ugly, boring fight. Maguire laid and prayed to victory. Boring as hell. (4-2)

Michihiro Omigawa def. Jason Young (unanimous)
Another boring fight dominated by wrestling and position. Omigawa did little, but Young did less. (4-3)

Phil De Vries def. Rob Broughton (unanimous)
Missed most of this one, but De Vries looked dominant. (5-3)

Che Mills def. Chris Cope (TKO 1)
Mills looked great against an admittedly mediocre Cope. We will see more of Mills. (6-3)

Chris Cariaso def. Vaughan Lee (split)
Didn't see it. (7-3)

Not bad.

UFC 138 Picks

Coming very quickly on the heels of UFC 137 and just before the UFC makes its big splash on network TV comes this forgotten PPV. Except it really isn't a PPV because it's airing for free over here - dunno if the English are being hosed for this Birmingham-based event. Consider that Chris Leben and Mark Munoz are the main event and it gives you some idea of how ugly this little stepchild is. Anyhow, let's get to the picks.

Chris Leben vs Mark Munoz (middleweight)
Both of these guys show some promise but are frustratingly inconsistent. Leben has a great chin and can throw bombs, but tends to lose the big fights. In fact, he's coming off a big loss to Brian Stann - a fight that propelled Stann into a #1 contenders fight - followed by an impressive and quick win over aging vet Wanderlei Silva. Munoz is a wrestler with power who is perhaps bets known for getting KTFO by Matt Hamill back in 2009. Turns out that that KO is one of only two losses on his resume, though, so he's doing pretty well. I could see Munoz taking Leben down and getting the decision, though this is scheduled to go five rounds (the first non-title five rounder in UFC history). Can Munoz really avoid standing a trading with Leben for five rounds? If they trade, who comes out on top? Do either of these guys have the gas tank to go five rounds? See, that's where the difference lies. I think Munoz can handle a longer fight, while Leben tends to gas. If Munoz fights smart and takes Leben down, he stands an even better chance of wearing out the Crippler. I'm taking Munoz.

Brad Pickett vs Renan Barao (bantamweight)
Ok, bad sign: I don't recognize either of these guys and it's the co-main event. Sure, they're bantamweights, but... Pickett is a veteran with a good record. Barao has little UFC experience but is undefeated in 26 straight! That's insane, even if he is fighting meatheads. Both claim to have BJJ skills, but something tells me Barao's is a bit more legit. Pickett will have the stand-up advantage, one would think, but Barao has a few KO's himself. Pickett seems like the wise choice, but I'm gonna go with another upset and pick Barao.

Thiago Alves vs Papy Abedi (welterweight)
I guess Alves has fallen on hard times - never heard of his opponent. Abedi may have a perfect 8-0 record, but he doesn't have a single name on his resume. I just can't pick him even though Alves is struggling. I'm picking Alves.

Terry Etim vs Edward Faaloloto (lightweight)
I'm not sure what Faaloloto is doing in the UFC or why he is fighting a guy like Etim. Etim ought to wipe the floor with this guy and send him packing. Faaloloto winning would certainly be the upset of the night. I'm picking Etim.

Cyrille Diabate vs Anthony Perosh (light heavyweight)
Perosh doesn't look like much, but he ain't bad. Diabate shows promise when he's aggressive. Perosh has a habit of getting KO'd against bangers and that's Diabate's style. I'm picking Diabate.

John Maguire vs Justin Edwards (welterweight)
Tough call. I know very little about Maguire who is making his UFC debut other than he has been a champ in other promotions but has fought a bunch of nobodys. He has a good record, though. Edwards is relatively new to the game but is doing well at 7-1. He has had a harder time against the top competition since graduating to the UFC, but that's one step further than Maguire. Dunno if it's an upset, but I'll pick Edwards.

Michihiro Omigawa vs Jason Young (featherweight)
Neither of these guys is impressive. Omigawa loses lots of decisions and Young is susceptible to submissions. Omigawa has more experience, but a lower winning percentage. He can't seem to beat anyone who has competed in the UFC. I'll pick the young guy - Young.

Rob Broughton vs Phil De Vries (heavyweight)
I like Broughton but De Vries looks a bit scary for a heavyweight. He's British but seems to have sick submissions skills. WTF is a "brabo choke"? (oh - looks like an anaconda choke) I'm gonan go with the dark horse again and pick De Vries.

Chris Cope vs Che Mills (welterweight)
Cope did alright on TUF while Mills is a nobody. This card is stacked with them. Some eagle-eyed folk might recognize Mills from TUF US vs UK where he lost an elimination fight on the debut episode and never got into the house. He lost to eventual winner James Wilkes, though, so perhaps that bodes well. He actually had Wilkes on his back, but got caught in a leg lock. Since then, he has done alright. I predict this'll be a free swinging affair, but I like Mills' chances. I'm picking Mills.

Chris Cariaso vs Vaughan Lee (bantamweight)
Neither of these guys seems all that impressive. Go figure on this card. I'll pick the guy with experience - Cariaso.

Man, this card is UGLY. Let's hope it's a good show.

UFC 137 Results

Missed almost all of this event, catching only the end of the Mitrione/Kongo snoozefest and the main event. I catch the Sportsnet prelims, though.

Nick Diaz def. BJ Penn (unanimous)
Penn looked ok in the first round, but wilted as he is apt to doing and Diaz pummeled him for the next two rounds. Both looked pretty messed up afterwards, but Diaz clearly earned the nod. As a bonus for shooting his mouth off, Diaz gets a title shot against GSP. Makes sense, right? I didn't think so, either. But see, this is marketing for you. A GSP/Diaz fight will garner more PPV buys than GSP/Condit. But is that the way the UFC should be conducting business? Shouldn't the top contender get the shot every time? Is Diaz the top contender? Dana White says Condit stepped aside, but I sense that might not be 100% accurate. Time will tell, I guess. (1-0)

Cheick Kongo def. Matt Mitrione (unanimous)
Seems this was boring as hell. All I saw was the third round where Kongo laid and prayed. Woopie. Seems Kongo didn't bring the heat. Surprised? Me neither. I was hoping Mitrione woudl score the upset, but it wasn't to be. Another boring win for Kongo. (1-1)

Roy Nelson def. Mirko Filipovic (TKO 3)
Like Penn, Cro Cop may be done. Let's hope so. He has nothing left in the tank. That much is obvious. He can't deal with the cage or his age. (2-1)

Scott Jorgensen def. Jeff Curran (unanimous)
Looks like Jorgensen did well. (3-1)

Hatsu Hioki def. George Roop (split)
Controversial. Came down to the first round. Roop did well in the stand-up, but got taken down hard. Guess two of the judges saw that as more significant. (4-1)

Donald Cerrone def. Dennis Siver (TKO 1)
Boy did Cerrone look good. I'm stunned he put Siver on the mat with power, but he did and then choked him out as I expected. (4-1)

Bart Palaszewski def. Tyson Griffin (TKO 1)
Griffin missed weight. By a lot. He was sick, apparently, and let's hope so 'cause this looked bad. I bet he'll get cut. He no-showed on this one. (5-1)

Brandon Vera def. Eliot Marshall (unanimous)
Neither of these guys looked all that impressive, but Vera certainly earned the nod. He almost had his arm broken in the process, as Marshall caught him in a late arm bar. I guess Vera will stick around a while longer. (6-1)

Ramsey Nijem def. Dan Downes (unanimous)
Didn't see it. (6-2)

Francis Carmont def. Chris Camozzi (unanimous)
Good start for Canadian? (7-2)

Clifford Starks def. Dustin Jacoby (unanimous)
Didn't see it. (7-3)

Hey 7-3 is not bad.

UFC 137 Picks

I'm exhausted for some bizarre reason and not thinking straight, but wanted to get my picks in for tomorrow's event out of principle. If I get half of these right it'll be a miracle.

BJ Penn vs Nick Diaz (welterweight)
Penn back at welterweight, talking title run. As if he deserves to face GSP after losing to him twice already, having lost his last two fights at a lower weight class and his only win since his return to welterweight was against a guy well past his prime who has not beaten a decent opponent in over 5 years. Right. Then there's Nick Diaz, who has been lighting them up since he was rejected by the UFC and moved to Strikeforce.But let;s face it: he hasn't beaten anyone of calibre in over 6 years! Before that, he lost to Joe Riggs, Sean Sherk and Diego Sanchez, who were decent back then, but haven't come close to the welterweight title. So, who is this new Diaz? Is he the real deal or just smoke and mirrors, created out of the dust of a clearly inferior organization? Well, Penn makes for a pretty good test, I guess. If he beats Penn cleanly, it means he's for real. Does it mean he should get a title shot? Hells f***ing no, but the UFC will give him one anyway. I'm not sure who to cheer for 'cause I don't think either of these guys deserves a title shot as a result. I think that if Penn wins, though, the UFC will have a harder time selling a GSP match-up which means MAYBE it won't happen. So that's reason enough to cheer for Penn I guess. This is a very even match-up, with both guys possessing BJJ skills and good stand-up. It may come down to cardio, in which case Diaz wins. I may pull for Penn to win, but my head just doesn't see it happening. I think Diaz will use his jab and eke out a decision.

Cheick Kongo vs Matt Mitrione (heavyweight)
Another good match-up. Big guys who like to strike. Kongo has WAY more experience and that may make the difference. Mitrione has surprised me with his resilience and his ability to get the W, though, and he has yet to get knocked down decisively. I'm gonan go with the upset and pick Mitrione.

Mirko Filipovic vs Roy Nelson (heavyweight)
This one is another intriguiing match-up. Cro Cop is well past his prime and is often dwarfed in the heavyweight division. But this time he's fighting a guy who is actually shorter, though he weights about 40 pounds more. This fight will prove once and for all if Cro Cop has anything left. Nelson will be a big, fat target. If Cro Cop can't head kick him, then that's it for the former tough guy. Nelson's best chance of winning this fight is to get Cro Cop to the ground and use his bulk to cripple his opponent while raining down some ground and pound. I actually think that'll happen. I just can't bet on Cro Cop these days. I'm picking Nelson.

Scott Jorgensen vs Jeff Curran (bantamweight)
Jorgensen is a top level guy while Curran is a vet with lots of experience. Unfortunately for him, most of the recent stuff isn't all that good. I'm picking Jorgensen.

Hatsu Hioki vs George Roop (featherweight)
The UFC really needs to update it's fighter profiles with some pictures. Roop has been around for a while, making an appearance on TUF and having mixed results since. Hioki has a very good record, but none of it in the UFC. I don't normally like to pick Japanese fighters making their UFC debuts, but his record is swaying me. I like Roop and he should have a good reach advantage, but I'm gonna pick the dark horse and go with Hioki.

Dennis Siver vs Donald Cerrone (lightweight)
This could be a very good fight. Siver is on the fringe of the elite and has impressed at times, while Cerrone is a top dog from WEC looking to make a name for himself in the UFC. The key for Cerrone is getting this fight to the ground where he should have the edge, despite Siver's credentials. I'm picking Cerrone.

Tyson Griffin vs Bart Palaszewski (lightweight)
Griffin is a UFC veteran while Bart is making his UFC debut after decent success in WEC. Bart has power on his side, while Griffin will have the wrestling advantage and may be able to get a decision. I like to cheer for a finish, so I'll go with Palaszewski.

Brandon Vera vs Eliot Marshall (light heavyweight)
Is this a loser-goes-home match? Maybe. After making a big splash. Vera has seriously disappointed in recent fights, granted against top guys. Marshall has a decent record, but has not exactly lit the UFC on fire and is coming off a loss. If Vera loses he definitely goes home unless he's sleeping with a UFC executive. A win would likely keep Marshall around for at least another fight. Vera ought to win this fight easily, but it all depends on his heart. I can't believe Vera could have fallen THIS far. I'm picking Vera.

Ramsey Nijem vs Dan Downes (lightweight)
Nijem did fairly well on TUF. Never heard of Downes but he has a better record and can knock guys out - something Nijem is familiar with following his TUF finale loss. I like Nijem, but I like Downes to win this fight.

Chris Camozzi vs Francis Carmont (middleweight)
Camozzi is a TUF competitor who has a decent record but no big wins. Carmont is a newcomer who trains with GSP and finishes fights fast one way or the other. I'm gonan pick the dark horse once again and go with Carmont for fun.

Dustin Jacoby vs Clifford Starks (middleweight)
Newcomers, I guess. This could be fun, though, as both guys are undefeated and have perfect records with lots of KO/TKOs. I'm gonna go with the bigger guy - Jacoby.

UFC 136 Results

Let's have a look...

Frankie Edgar def. Gray Maynard (TKO 4)
Looks like Maynard had Edgar in trouble in the first once again and, yet again, could not finish him. Edgar clipped Maynard in the fourth and managed to get the job done. (0-1)

Jose Aldo def. Kenny Florian (unanimous)
Florian was game, but Aldo was better. (1-1)

Chael Sonnen def. Brian Stann (sub 2)
Big win for Sonnen puts him right back in the title picture. (2-1)

Joe Lauzon def. Melvin Guillard (sub 1)
So much for Guillard's title run. A loss to a guy who is arguably just outside the top ten is a big setback. A loss in under a minute? Fuggetaboutit. (3-1)

Nam Phan def. Leonard Garcia (unanimous)
Phan came out of the right side of this one. LOTS of punches thrown. (4-1)

Demian Maia def. Jorge Santiago (unanimous)
They stayed on their feet until Maia decided to wrestle Santiago to the ground. Not a very interesting fight. (5-1)

Anthony Pettis def. Jeremy Stevens (split)
Decent stand up fight. But Pettis was better. (6-1)

Stipe Miocic def. Joey Beltran (unanimous)
Upset special! (7-1)

Darren Elkins def. Tiequan Zhang (unanimous)
Looks like Zhang couldn't get the KO shot he hunts for. (7-2)

Aaron Simpson def. Eric Schafer (uanimous)
Looks like Shafer may be on his way out again. (8-2)

Mike Massenzio def. Steve Cantwell (unanimous)
Loser goes home? (8-3)

Lots of decisions in this one. Not a very entertaining night, it seems; at least on the undercard. Still, 8-3? I'll take that!

UFC 136 Edgar vs Maynard III Picks

Here we go again!

These two put on a good show, so I'm not complaining. Who's gonna win? Let's find out.

Frankie Edgar vs Gray Maynard (lightweight)
Third time's a charm, right? So by that rationale, Edgar ought to take this... These guys are pretty evenly matched, with Edgar having the edge in speed and Maynard the edge in power. What will be different this time? Probably not much. Maynard could certainly fight smarter. He had Edgar at his mercy last time out, but instead of finishing off the champ with precision punches and elbows or even a choke, he threw punches in bunches and tired himself out without doing enough damage to end the fight. Lots of guys make this mistake when they have a guy on the ropes. If he fights smarter, I have Maynard taking it. If not, Edgar will take the decision. I'm picking Maynard.

Jose Aldo vs Kenny Florian (featherweight)
It's hard to go against Kenny. He's a smart fighter and knows what he has to do to win. But this is only his second fight at featherweight and he is taking on a very game champ. They are both BJJ/Muay Thai/boxing guys, with Aldo having the edge in power and Kenny having a slight reach/size advantage. Can Aldo knock out Kenny? Can Kenny choke out Aldo? Honestly, I don't like Kenny's chances here. He doesn't have featherweight speed. I could see him gassing or getting caught by a big punch. I'd like to pick him, but it wouldn't be smart. I'm picking Aldo.

Chael Sonnen vs Brian Stann (middleweight)
These two are very evenly matched as well, but Sonnen is the smarter fighter and has more to prove. ...But he hasn't fought in a year. Stann has two fights this calendar year alone. Impressive as they were, they were both against guys willing to bang. I don't see Sonnen being that stupid. He'll take Stann down and work him from there. Stann has proven in the past to have trouble off his back. A year ago, I would have picked Sonnen hands down. Now I'm not so sure. A year off is a long time. Still, I'll pick Sonnen.

Melvin Guillard vs Joe Lauzon (lightweight)
This ought to be interesting. A true clash of styles. Guillard is lightning fast with incredible power. Lauzon is a tactician with great submissions skills. Can Lauzon get Guillard to the ground? If he does, he takes it. If he doesn't, he's toast. I could see Lauzon getting KTFO or taking it easily by submission in the first round. I like Lauzon, while Guillard still comes off as a child in a man's body. I'll pick Lauzon.

Leonard Garcia vs Nam Phan (featherweight)
The rematch. Garcia got the decision the first time while Phan got robbed. He deserved the decision, but somehow the judges saw it differently. It was an ugly fight and this one probably won't be much prettier. Garcia is a wild man. He throws looping punches with abandon. Phan will be more technical and the winner will likely be determined by which judges are sitting octagon-side. While Phan did well on TUF he is hardly a top-notch fighter. He has lost his last two fights, 4 of his last 5, 5 of 7, and 7 of 11. Garcia, for his part, is hit and miss, but at least has faced decent opponents. He just can't beat any of them. His claim to fame is a controversial (again) win over the Korean Zombie as well as a KO win over an over-ripe Jens Pulver. So who takes this one? Let's go with Phan for fun.

Demian Maia vs Jorge Santiago (middleweight)
I like Maia. As long as he takes the fight to the ground. Recently, he has been relying a bit too much on his standup and taking fights to a decision. Santiago lost to Brian Stann the last time out and seems to have trouble inside the octagon in general. He has also lost fights to Diego Sanchez and Manvel Gamburyan (a 0:21 KO!). He has a lot of experience, but Maia is a top-notch BJJ fighter and I sense Santiago isn't quite up to his level. I'm picking Maia.

Anthony Pettis vs Jeremy Stevens (lightweight)
Could be fight of the night. Pettis is the former WEC lightweight champ and might have been UFC lightweight champ had he not dropped the ball against the always tough Clay Guida. Stevens is always game, always shows up to fight - he just tends to come out on the short end of decisions against top-flight competition. Pettis is definitely top flight. I'm picking Pettis.

Joey Beltran vs Stipe Miocic (heavyweight)
Beltran is hit and miss. You never know what you're going to get. He isn't fancy, but he's tough. But...Stipe who? Exactly. But guess what: this guy is a former Golden Gloves champ and NCAA Div I wrestler. He's also 6-0 with KO wins and a submission by LEG KICKS. His resume seems weird, though, with wins over guys named Gregory Maynard (not Gray), Jeremy Holm (not Horn) and Paul Barry (not Pat). Assuming this isn't a gag, this guy could prove to be very tough. Let's hope for fireworks. I've never been a big fan of Beltran's, so I'm gonna go with the dark horse upset special here and pick Miocic.

Tiequan Zhang vs Darren Elkins (featherweight)
Elkins is a wrestler with KO power and submission skills. Very dangerous. Zhang finishes guys fast and has only one loss - by decision. This could be over quick. Zhang has some wrestling in his background but he is definitely a submissions guy. If Elkins tries to take this to the ground, it could get very interesting. I'll pick Zhang.

Aaron Simpson vs Eric Schafer (middleweight)
Both of these guys are mid-carders looking for a break. Both tend to lose against top guys but have otherwise been impressive. Schafer is getting a second chance with the UFC as an injury replacement after being cut a year and a half ago. Simpson is 5-2 in the UFC and in no immediate danger of being cut, it seems. So will desperation lead to a win for Schafer? I don't see it that way. I'm picking Simpson.

Steve Cantwell vs Mike Massenzio (middleweight)
I'm not quite sure why this fight is on the card. Cantwell has lost three in a row and is dropping down to middleweight. Massenzio is often cannon fodder as well, having lost 3 of 4 and 5 of 7. I assume the loser goes home in this one. I don't like the looks of either of these guys but Cantwell is a former WEC champ and Masenzio has a loss to CB effing Dollaway on his resume. I'm picking Cantwell.

Too bad I'm gonna miss this event due to Thanksgiving. Most of the card looks great.

UFC Live Cruz vs Johnson Results

Ok, let's see how I did...

Dominick Cruz def. Demetrious Johnson (unanimous)
This was a lobsided decision, but I was very impressed with Johnson. That guy has an insane gas tank. He might give Clay Guida a run for his money. He couldn't handle Cruz's wrestling and size and that was the difference. If they ever make a 125 lb division, Johnson might dominate that. (1-0)

Stefan Struve def. Pat Barry (sub 2)
Barry never did get inside and made the massive mistake of going to the ground with Struve. The submission came quickly, despite a very impressive slam. Barry should have used his kicks more - they were working. (1-1)

Anthony Johnson def. Charlie Brenneman (TKO 1)
No question, Johnson was kicking Brenneman's ass, but this was an early stoppage. It was a massive head kick and Brenneman went down, but he was clearly not out. It should have gone a bit longer to see if Johnson could finish him. Fights shouldn't be stopped because a guy is in trouble; they should be stopped when the guy is DEFEATED. Johnson looked good. (2-1)

Matt Wiman def. Mac Danzig (unanimous)
Close fight. The first round was iffy, but I scored it the same way - 29-28 Wiman, with him taking the first and third rounds. Entertaining fight. Chosen as "Fight of the Night". (3-1)

Yves Edwards def. Rafaello Oliveira (TKO 2)
Oliveira looked good until he got caught. He was far more aggressive, with Edwards barely throwing any leather. He got a bit careless on a series of strikes and ate a big knee. He wasn't the same after that and Edwards caught him again with big shots, putting him down and eventually forcing the ref to step in. (4-1)

Paul Sass def. Michael Johnson (sub 1)
Yup - as predicted, the submission skills were the difference. Sounds like Johnson was overmatched. Dunno if he'll stick around long. (5-1)

Mike Easton def. Byron Bloodworth (TKO 2)
Sounds like this one was a war. (6-1)

TJ GRant def. Shane Roller (sub 3)
Didn't see it. Apparently, Grant was winning the fight, taking the first two rounds. Good for him. Nice feather. (7-1)

Josh Neer def. Keith Wisniewski (TKO 2)
Sounds like Neer carved up Wisniewski and the doctor had to stop it. (8-1)

Walel Watson def. Joseph Sandoval (TKO 1)
Lots of stoppages in the undercard. Sounds like it was a good night for those in attendance. Good night for me, too! (9-1)

NICE!!!

UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson Picks

Is it my imagination or is there a UFC event every weekend these days?

Dominick Cruz vs Demetrious Johnson (bantamweight)
I know sweet FA about Johnson, other than he is tiny - even for a bantamweight. He's a wrestler, while Cruz is very well rounded. Both of these guys tend to go to decision recently. I'm gonna pick Cruz.

Pat Barry vs Stefan Struve (heavyweight)
I like both of these guys. On paper, Struve has a crazy advantage thanks to his reach. Both have KO power, but Bary has SERIOUS KO power. Struve's chin is questionable, though while Barry has yet to be KO'd (other than by fluke vs Kongo). I could see this as being a replay of Struve's loss to Travis Browne or Roy Nelson where the smaller guy finally gets inside and lands the big shot to the glass jaw. I also see Barry chopping down the giant with leg kicks. I'm picking Barry.

Anthony Johnson vs Charlie Brenneman (welterweight)
I like Brenneman, but I do not like his chances in this fight. Johnson is an up and comer who has shown great talent and would be contending for the title had it not been for an iffy loss to Josh Koshcheck and the phantom knee strike. Brenneman has the better record, but Johnson has tougher fights under his belt. Both tend to go to decision. Both are wrestlers, but Johnson has some striking pedigree as well. I'm picking Johnson.

Matt Wiman vs Mac Danzig (lightweight)
Could be an interesting fight. Both of these guys are far form having secure places with the company. Mid-carders, essentially, who show little threat for the lightweight belt. Wiman is popular, but has not won any of the big fights he's been in. Danzig is a TUF champ who showed lots of promise but then fell on hard times, losing 3 straight to tough competitors. He is 2-1 since then, including a loss to the same Matt Wiman. It was a controversial stoppage, though, with the ref stepping in to break up a submission despite the fact Danzig had not tapped or been rendered unconscious. Danzig will be looking for revenge, which should give him an edge. Still, I'm gonna pick the more well-rounded Wiman.

Yves Edwards vs Rafaello Oliveira (lightweight)
Edwards has been fighting forever. He's a journeyman who has never really impressed in the UFC. Oliveira has a fine record but loses all of his significant fights. Is this a battle of losers? Tough pick. I think I'll pick Edwards.

Michael Johnson vs Paul Sass (lightweight)
Johnson was a TUF competitor from whom great things were expected. So far, though, he has shown that he is a diamond in the rough at best. He has also shown he can be submitted. Sass has a perfect record, though he has only one UFC fight. He is a submissions ninja, with a penchant for triangle chokes. I'm picking Sass.

Mike Easton vs Byron Bloodworth (bantamweight)
Who? Don't know these guys. Mystery bantamweights. I can't wait for this season of TUF to be over so that we'll have some more recognizable faces in the division. Easton has a good record, including a win over the supposedly well-known Chase Beebe. Easton is a champion (UWC) while Bloodworth doesn't have a Wikipedia page and is an injury replacement. I'm picking Easton.

Shane Roller vs TJ Grant (lightweight)
Could be a good fight. Roller is a well-rounded wrestler who contended for a belt not so long ago, but seems to drop the ball in the really big fights. Grant is a Canadian with very well rounded skills, but has dropped some decisions lately at 170. He's dropping down in weight here, so who knows what kind of effect it'll have. If he cuts right, he ought to have a slight size advantage over Roller and ought to be able to nullify any wrestling. I'd give Grant the edge on the feet, so I'm picking Grant.

Josh Neer vs Keith Wisniewski (welterweight)
After two years away, Neer is back in the UFC, this time at welterweight. He has had success at that weight away from the UFC. Wisniewski is a nobody but has a TON of fights over a 13-year career. The guy has fought in just about every organization and even has a loss to Shonie Carter via spinning back fist! I don't lie his chances here, though, so I'm picking Neer.

Walel Watson vs Joseph Sandoval (bantamweight)
No idea. Watson is a submissions machine, it seems. Very tall for a bantamweight (5'11"). Sandoval is undefeated and has some power, it seems. I hate decisions, though, so let's hope Watson submits him. I'm picking Watson.

UFC 135 Results

Didn't get to see this event - just a couple of fights on the web or in the prelim show. Let's see how ugly it got.

Jon Jones def. Rampage Jackson (sub 4)
Rampage is ridiculously one-dimensional, and despite his claims of being better prepared and in great shape, he demonstrated once again that he is a one-trick pony. Stay away from the big punches and you can pretty much guarantee yourself a win over Jackson. Jones used his reach to score and finally ended the fight with a rear naked choke. No surprise. (1-0)

Josh Koshcheck def. Matt Hughes (KO 1)
Honestly, is anyone still interested in seeing Hughes fight? Once again HUghes got knocked out early by a decent opponent. If Hughes isn't facing a has been or never was, that's pretty much the tune these days. Time to retire, Matt. Seriously. (2-0)

Travis Browne def. Rob Broughton (unanimous)
Didn't see it. (3-0)

Nate Diaz def. Takanori Gomi (sub 1)
Gomi had 4 punches land. FOUR. GTFO of the UFC, man. Why is Gomi around? (4-0)

Mark Hunt def. Ben Rothwell (unanimous)
Looks like this one might have been surprisingly one-sided. Rothwell is really stalling in the UFC. Hunt wins again? (4-1)

Tony Ferguson def. Aaron Riley (TKO 1)
Ferguson looked good. Broke Riley's jaw, forcing a stoppage after round one. Too bad. (5-1)

Tim Boetsch def. Nick Ring (unanimous)
Not sure what Ring's game plan was here. He backed away from Boetsch all night long. Was he trying to tire him out? Boetsch seemed better in all categories and Ring had nothing. (5-2)

Junior Assuncao def. Eddie Yagin (unanimous)
Didn't see it. (6-2)

Takeya Mizugaki def. Cole Escovedo (KO 2)
Didn't see it. (6-3)

James Te Huna def. Ricardo Romero (KO 1)
Romero...WTF? He looked AWFUL. Poor takedown attempts lead to him getting hammer fisted into unconsciousness. Brutal. I imagine he'll get cut. (6-4)

So 6-4. Not bad. 7-3 really, if you count the fact I actually called Boetsch's win but chose not to go against the Canadian. :P Doesn't that count for something?

UFC 135 Picks

This looks like an ok card. Not great.

Rampage Jackson vs Jon Jones (light heavyweight)
Rampage seems like an interesting, decent guy, but he is WAY beyond his prime and has never impressed me in a UFC fight. He is terribly one-dimensional and not even that good at the one thing he does best: stand-up. Sure, he has great knock out power, but he has to connect first. Jones won't give him that chance. Expect a lot of kicks and takedowns and Rampage to lose a very lopsided decision. I'm taking Jones.

Matt Hughes vs Josh Koshcheck (welterweight)
Hughes is another one who is way past his best-before date. he might have a couple of ok fights left in him, but he is getting outclassed badly by anyone of any talent (Penn, GSP, Alves) and getting wins against has-beens and never-weres (Serra, Gracie, Almeida). He hasn't had an impressive win in 4 years. That's a long time, folks. Hughes is a better fighter than Koscheck who is generally overrated, but Koscheck ought to be much faster. I think that'll make the difference. I expect this one to stay on the feet and Koscheck to clip Hughes sometime within 15 minutes. Expect Hughes to reconsider his career after this one. I'm taking Koscheck.

Travis Browne vs Rob Broughton (heavyweight)
This is the third ranked fight? Yikes. Broughton is a Brit with some submission skills, but Browne is a BJJ guy with power. Browne has also faced MUCH tougher competition. I'm taking Browne.

Nate Diaz vs Takanori Gomi (lightweight)
A battle of underachievers. Diaz has talent but lacks brains and a game plan. Gomi came into the UFC with much fanfare but has not impressed me. He is 1-2 in the UFC and prone to submissions. You know who is great at submissions? Diaz. But he has to get him down first. If Diaz stays on his feet he might be in trouble and if it goes to a decision expect it to go Gomi's way. Diaz is 3-5 in his last eight, all losses by decision, all wins by submission. By all accounts Diaz is a douche; but he's a talented douche. Gomi appears to be neither. I'll take Diaz.

Ben Rothwell vs Mark Hunt (heavyweight)
More big boys. Rothwell is a former IFL champ who hasn't done much in the UFC, though his 2009 loss was to future champ Cain Velasquez (which may or may not have been stopped early). He's 31-7 but only 29 and has some big names on his resume. Hunt had an impressive win his last time out after I had written him off. Still, the guys has LOSING RECORD in MMA. How is he in the UFC? Sure, he has a better kickboxing record, but even that is only hit and miss. He has split decision wins over Cro Cop and Wanderlei Silva but those guys are tiny in comparison and that was 7 years ago. I can't pick this guy. I'm picking Rothwell.

Tony Ferguson vs Aaron Riley (lightweight)
I like Ferguson, a TUF champ, but he may be in over his head here. Riley has an impressive record, but can't seem to get the big wins. This is a test for Ferguson. Riley usually goes to decision, while Ferguson has only gone the distance twice in this 13-fight career. I'm picking Ferguson.

Nick Ring vs Tim Boetsch (middleweight)
Ring has a perfect record (though that includes a bizarre win over Riki Fukuda) but Boetsch has way more experience and much bigger names on his resume. At 13-4, Boetsch is no pushover. I think Boetsch is gonna take this one, but I don't wanna bet against the Canadian, so I'll take Ring.

Junior Assuncao vs Eddie Yagin (featherweight)
Assuncao is dropping down for this one. This marks his return to the UFC after a four year and eight fight absence. Both of these guys have decent records and like submissions. Assuncao is much taller, though and should have the advantage on the feet. I'll take Assuncao.

Takeya Mizugaki vs Cole Escovedo (bantamweight)
I can't remember the last time I weighed 135... High school? Escovedo is a former WEC featherweight champ but has fallen on harder times since and has lost three of his last four. Mizugaki did well in Japan, but had a harder time in the WEC. He has won against so-so guys, lost to all the top guys. Is Escovedo a top guy? Not anymore, but I like his chances better. I'm picking Escovedo.

James Te Huna vs Ricardo Romero (light heavyweight)
Te Huna is a submissoins guy who seems to prefer striking these days. Romero is a talented up and comer who lost quickly and badly his last time out. This is a tough one to pick as both guys show potential and are well matched. Te Huna is the wrestler, though, and that would normally give the edge. I'm gonna buck that trend, though, and pick Romero.

UFC Fight Night Results - the Two Jakes

Some surprising results in this one! Let's see how I did. (not well, I wager)

Jake Ellenberger def. Jake Shields (KO 1)
Wow. This one will have repercussions. Shields came over to the UFC from Strikeforce and it was assumed he would get a title shot. Then he narrowly defeats Martin Kampmann (who proved to be not-quite-ready-for-primetime himself) before getting smoked by GSP. Now he loses to Ellenberger? Not exactly the splash he was hoping to make, I'm sure. This is a huge win for Ellenberger and puts him on the title contender route. I imagine he'll get one more significant test before that happens, though. Despite what Shields says, this was NOT an early stoppage. His hands went limp. (0-1)

Court McGee def. Dongi Yang (unanimous)
Meh. Not a great fight. McGee outpointed him, I guess. (1-1)

Erik Koch def. Jonathan Brookins (unanimous)
Awful fight. Boring as hell. Lots of non-committal stand-up followed by half-assed takedown attempts. Not good for either guy. Brookins is wasting his post-TUF momentum. (2-1)

Alan Belcher def. Jason MacDonald (sub 1)
A verbal tap-out due to strikes? Never a good thing. Haven't heard if MacDonald is injured, but quitting is never a good sign. Unfortunately, this was another poor showing by MacDonald and demonstrated bad strategy once again. Someone needs to show him some wrestling pointers. His single leg takedown attempts are pathetic, frankly. When MacDonald fell backwards trying to take Belcher down, he sealed his fate. It was so early in the fight that Belcher was able to swing away and caught MacDonald with some solid shots, causing the big Canadian to turtle. It was just sad to watch from then on as MacDonald made no use of his legs to push his opponent away. Awful. (2-2)

Vogner Rocha def. Cody McKenzie (sub 2)
McKenzie got submitted again? Ugh. (2-3)

Evan Dunham def. Shamar Bailey (unanimous)
Dunham dominated, it seems. (3-3)

Lance Benoist def. Matthew Riddle (unanimous)
Closer fight than it seems, with it being scored 29-28 across the board. (4-3)

Ken Stone def. Donny Walker (sub 1)
Didn't see it. (4-4)

Seth Baczynski def. Clay Harvison (sub 2)
Nope. (5-4)

TJ Waldburger def. Mike Stumpf (sub 1)
Getting submitted in the first round always sucks. (6-4)

Robert Peralta def. Mike Lullo (unanimous)
Is Peralta for real? (7-4)

Justin Edwards vs Jorge Lopez (unanimous)
Fluke for me. (8-4)

Boy: 8-4 would normally have me grinning, but I didn't see half these fights or know most of these guys. Still, I'll pat myself on the back for my research skills!

UFC Fight Night Shields vs Ellenberger

Alright, let's whip off some predictions while we have a minute, shall we?

Jake Shields vs Jake Ellenberger (welterweight)
Would love to see Ellenberger win this, but Shields has better cred in all categories. Gotta take the favourite, I guess. Shields for the win.

Court McGee vs Dongi Yang (middleweight)
I like McGee, but Yang is no pushover and looked pretty good last time out. This should be a good fight. I'll pick McGee.

Jonathan Brookins vs Erik Koch (featherweight)
Brookins is coming off his TUF win, but it's been a while. Koch has thunder in his fists and has looked great. I'm gonna pick Koch.

Alan Belcher vs Jason MacDonald (middelweight)
This is the fight I want to see. Belcher has had mixed success against decent competition and is on the upswing. An impressive win would put him in contender status. Like MacDonald, he has BJJ experience but he also has some decent power and muay thai knowledge. On the other side, this is a big opportunity for MacDonald. Back in the UFC and coming off a win after a broken leg, this is his chance to stick around for a while. A win would be huge for him and put him back on the map. He has had mixed success against tougher opponents than Belcher's, so he's no slouch though he will come in as the underdog. If he fights smart, he can take it. But he HAS to fight smart - something he hasn't always done. If he stays on his feet, he has to use his reach - but he'd be much better off taking this to the ground. I don't like his chances, but I'm picking MacDonald anyway.

Cody McKenzie vs Vogner Rocha (lightweight)
McKenzie is a guillotine machine. He's also VERY good on the ground, though he got a bit overconfident in his last fight and ended up getting submitted. He's a purple belt while Vogner is a black belt. These guys might end up keeping this standing. Still, I'll pick McKenzie.

Evan Dunham vs Shamar Bailey (lightweight)
Dunham has looked great in the past and was on his way to a title shot when he got seriously derailed by Melvin Guillard after a tough decision loss to Sean Sherk. Both of these guys have wrestling pedigrees, but Dunham is the more complete package. I'm picking Dunham.

Matthew Riddle vs Lance Benoist (welterweight)
Riddle has improved significantly since his stint on TUF. He still doesn't have a lot of experience, but Benoist has ZERO UFC experience despite a perfect record. He is submission artist and finishes guys fast, whereas Riddle tends to go to decision. I could see Riddle getting submitted here. I'll pick Benoist.

Ken Stone vs Donny Walker (bantamweight)
After starting 8-0, Stone has gone 1-for-4 since. Walker started off slowly, but has had more success recently, though he lost his UFC debut. Both are BJJ guys, but Walker has some muay thai and Stone has been KO'd a couple of times recently. I'll pick Walker.

Clay Harvison vs Seth Baczynski (welterweights)
Both of these guys finish fights fast. This could be a bonus money fight, for sure. Seth has more experience, but more mixed results. Bit of a toss up, this one. I'm gonna pick Baczynski.

TJ Waldburger vs Mike Stumpf (welterweight)
Where are the big boys on this card? Stumpf is a no name who used to fight at 185 it seems. Good record, but against nobodies and there are more decisions recently. Waldburger is more experienced and has faced tougher opponents. I'll pick Waldburger.

Mike Lullo vs Robert Peralta (featherweight)
Lullo is largely a submissions guy, while Peralta is largely unknown but has a very decent record. He scored an upset over the current DREAM champ at a Strikeforce event. That's no joke. I'll pick Peralta.

Justin Edwards vs Jorge Lopez (welterweight)
Clearly the UFC is looking to boost the lighter divisions, including welterweight where no one can seem to beat GSP. Edwards is big on submissions while Lopez is big on decisions. I don't like taking the boring guy, so I'll pic Edwards.

12 fights. That's a lot. I wonder how many we'll actually get to see....?

UFC Rio (134) Results

Hm. Think I took a bath on this one... Let's see.

Anderson Silva def. Yushin Okami (KO 2)
Honestly. What are these guys thinking? I'm big, I'm a wrestler, I think I'll stand and bang with Anderson Silva. Are you f***ing retarded? Think. We know wrestling works against Silva - why do people insist on standing back and waiting to be knocked out? Ridiculous. Waste of a fight. (1-0)

Mauricio Rua def. Forrest Griffin (KO 1)
Again, what was this guy thinking? Griffin should have taken down Rua fast and worn him out, but instead stands with another heavy hitter and gets put on his ass. Way to go. Anyone else think Forrest might retire soon? Although I'm not sure what else he'd do... (1-1)

Minotauro Nogueira def. Brendan Schaub (KO 1)
Schaub had Nogueira hurt but couldn't finish before getting caught. Schaub doesn't make the leap into the top echelon of the division, but still looked like he could hang with Nogueira. (1-2)

Edson Barboza def. Ross Pearson (split)
Finally an upset that paid off. Pearson pressed the action, but Barboza had the more effective strikes, I thought. I gave it to him on a thin decision. (2-2)

Stanislav Nedkov def. Luiz Cane (TKO 1)
Cane looked good early and had Nedkov on the ropes but did not finish and got caught. (2-3)

Thiago Tavares def. Spencer Fisher (TKO 2)
Fisher is in trouble, dropping too many of these fights. The stoppage may have been premature, what with Fisher taking no damage (though he was turtled), but he wasn't exactly lighting up Tavares. (2-4)

Rousimar Palhares def. Dan Miller (unanimous)
Palhares looked as good as you can without finishing a fight. He didn't seem to go for too many submissions but he beat the crap out of Miller for most of the fight and got either two 10-8s or an unheard-of 10-7 from one judge. (3-4)

Paulo Thiago def. David Mitchell (unanimous)
Didn't see it, but it sounds like Thiago dominated. (4-4)

Raphael Assuncao def. Johnny Eduardo (unanimous)
Assuncao didn't impress much, it seems, but got the nod in the end. The fight might have been closer than the scorecards suggested. These failed upsets are killing me! (4-5)

Yuri Alcantara def. Felipe Arantes (unanimous)
Whatever. (5-5)

Yves Jabouin def. Ian Loveland (split)
This fight was close, it seems, with Loveland providing wrestling while Jabouin looked for highlight finishes. Strangely, Jabouin gets the decision despite one judge giving all three rounds to Loveland. (6-5)

Somehow I missed the Erick Silva vs Luis Ramos fight in my picks. This had a wicked KO with Silva getting the win.

So, 6-5 is not terrible and better than I thought I was going to do, considering many of my upsets didn't pan out. I'm not gonna celebrate, though. :P

UFC Rio picks

So apparently this event is so cool that they aren't giving it a number? Whatever. (It's UFC 134) Let's get to the picks.

Anderson Silva vs Yushin Okami (middleweight)
It's nearly impossible to go against Silva these days, especially because few fighters in the division have the tools to beat him. Sonnen is at least one fight away, so Silva gets another sacrifice. Does Okami have a chance? Sure, if he presses the action. But I bet he gets KTFO before he gets close. I'm picking Silva.

Forrest Griffin vs Mauricio Rua (light heavyweight)
I hate betting against Griffin, but I don't like his chances in this one. Rua is coming off big fights while Griffin has been MIA promoting books and such. Still, I'll pick Forrest just so that I don't root against him.

Brendan Schaub vs Minotauro Nogueira (heavyweight)
Schaub has KO power and that's his key to victory. He won't outwrestle Nogueira and he certainly can't BJJ the guy. Can Nog get Schaub down? Maybe. But I think Nogueira is way past his prime these days and Schaub will connect. I'm picking Schaub in the upset.

Ross Pearson vs Edson Barboza (lightweight)
I like Pearson, but he isn't god's gift to MMA. Barboza is relatively unknown but TKO's guys with kicks! That's crazy. This ought to be a slugfest and I'm picking Barboza.

Luiz Cane vs Stanislav Nedkov (heavyweight)
Stanislov who? The guy hasn't fought in over a year and was rarely fighting before that. Great record, but you'd think he'd need more seasoning... Anyhow, he's a BJJ black belt and knocks guys out fast. But with the ring rust... Cane is dangerous but has underperformed in the past. He, too, is a BJJ black belt with KO power. Not sure where to go here. I'll pick experience and go with Cane.

Thiago Tavares vs Spencer Fisher (lightweight)
Could be fight of the night. Both of these guys were impressive a few years ago, but have fallen on hard times since. I expect this to go to decision with Fisher getting the nod.

Rousimar Palhares vs Dan Miller (middleweight)
Both of these guys have black belts in BJJ but Palhares is on a different level. His kneebars and ankle locks are sick. Can Miller avoid them? We'll see. I'll pick Palhares.

Paulo Thiago vs David Mitchell (welterweight)
Thiago was a rising star not so long ago, but has lost two in a row - usually signifying a must win match. Mitchell is a submissions guy who won a decision in his UFC debut. I think he's being thrown to the wolves here, though - I'll pick Thiago.

Raphael Assuncao vs Johnny Eduardo (featherweight)
Assuncao is a bit of a name, though he has lost a few recently. Eduardo is a nobody but has a string of victories and is used to fighting in Brazil. Neither of these guys blows me away. I'll go with the upset again and pick Eduardo.

Yuri Alcantara vs Felipe Arantes (featherweight)
This is getting ridiculous. The UFC featherweight division is so thin that neither of these guys has a profile on the website. Alcantara has a sick record and finishes guys fast. Arantes doesn't even appear on Wikipedia. Fuck that guy, I'm picking Alcantara.

Yves Jabouin vs Ian Loveland (bantamweight)
Loveland has been doing well recently and has some power, but gets submitted easily. Good thing for him, Jabouin is a striker, too. Jabouin really needs a win. Since I hate going against Canadians, even transplanted ones, I'll pick Jabouin.

UFC 133 Results

I didn’t get a chance to get my picks in for this one, but let’s recap anyway.

Rashad Evans def. Tito Ortiz (TKO 2)

This was one of those fights where one guy had nothing to gain and everything to lose. Unlike many of those past fights, though, the guy still won. Rashad dominated Ortiz for the most part – the exception being the seemingly tight guillotine choke from which Evans escaped. Ortiz was given this fight thanks to a late notice injury. Frankly, he did not deserve it otherwise. Sure, he beat Ryan Bader but that was more of a Matt Serra-like fluke. Ortiz simply is not in the same class as these top guys he’s been allowed to fight. Hell, even Bader is overrated and has flaws. I’m not sure where Ortiz goes from here, but based on his Bader win and popularity, he’s likely to be given at least one more decent fight.

Vitor Belfort def. Yoshihiro Akiyama (KO 1)

No way Akiyama deserved this fight. With the exception of his loss to Anderson Silva, Belfort has been a monster while “Sexyama” has been mediocre at best. Getting submitted by Chris Leben should not get you into Belfort’s sights. But the division is pretty thin and good fights are scarce. The right guy won and won in highlight reel fashion.

Brian Ebersole def. Dennis Hallman (TKO 1)

I would have been tempted to pick Hallman in this one, but he has disappointed me in the past. Both of these guys have insane records, but haven’t really made splashes in the UFC. That seems to be changing for Ebersole who now has had a couple of impressive wins.

Constantinos Philippou def. Jorge Rivera (split)

I would have been tempted to pick the rejuvenated Rivera, but he, too, has disappointed me in the past. I didn’t watch this fight too closely, but what I did see of it led me to believe the right decision was made. In fact, Rivera survived to a decision thanks to some generous refereeing, I believe.

Rory McDonald def. Mike Pyle (KO 1)

Wow. McDonald is looking impressive. Good for the young Canadian. Let’s hope he gets some bigger fights.

Alexander Gustafsson def. Matt Hamill (KO 2)

Despite a decent record, Hamill has been unimpressive of late. His retirement announcement on Monday seems to confirm that his heart just wasn’t in it anymore. Congrats to him for making the UFC and having a decent career, but, yes, it was probably the right time and the right decision.

Chad Mendes def. Rani Yahya (unanimous)

Didn’t watch it too closely, but this appeared to be the right decision.

Ivan Menjivar def. Nick Pace (unanimous)

Didn’t see it.

Johny Hendricks def. Mike Pierce (split)

Didn’t see it. Good for Hendricks, but the split makes me wonder how impressive he was. He’s usually pretty stellar.

Mike Brown def. Nam Phan (unanimous)

Surprised this one wasn’t on the main card, considering how weak the card was and the names involved. Looks like this one was a blowout, though. Not sure Phan is ready for former champs yet.

Rafael Natal def. Paul Bradley (unanimous)

Another decision. Looks like the undercard kinda sucked. Didn’t see this one.

Hm. Think I might have gone 8-2 in this one had I got my picks in. Darn.

UFC 132 Results

Another UFC event on a long weekend means yet another MISSED UFC event. Sorry, but the cottage takes precedent and there's nowhere to watch the event anywhere nearby. Too bad - I thought this might be a good event and it looks like it was.

Dominic Cruz def. Urijah Faber (unanimous)
This division has seen the belt change hands a lot, but Cruz is finally giving it a bit of stability. His win over perennial contender Faber clearly establishes him as the top dog. Faber represents a troubling trend in the UFC, as far as I am concerned. How many title shots is this for him? Sure, I understand it's at bantamweight, but, still, he seems to get title shots every other fight. Deserved? I dunno... He lost this fight cleanly according to the judges (50-45, 49-46, 48-47) but I'm not sure how Cruz would have won that first round. "Dancing around" was not a judging element last time I looked. In the second and third rounds Faber seemed to get the more significant strikes in and even a couple of takedowns, but at least two of the judges saw Cruz having the edge. If the scores are announced with one judge having it 50-45 and no one knows who won until the announcer actually says the guy's name - you have a problem. This fight ws definitely closer than 50-45. (1-0)

Chris Leben def. Wanderlei Silva (KO 1)
Wow. Quick fight. Just what the fans wanted, but perhaps a little TOO short. Wanderlei doesn't have the chin to stand up to guys like Leben anymore. Is he done? Maybe. He still represents a bit of a stepping stone for up-and-comers but he's no longer anywhere near the top. Leben took a hard shot and then gave it right back to Wanderlei in spades. (1-1)

Tito Ortiz def. Ryan Bader (sub 1)
Huh. I didn't give Ortiz much of a chance in this one, but he caught Bader and then threw on the guillotine. Bader looked hesitant and surprisingly smaller than Ortiz. Bader might have won had it lasted longer than a round, but that's what you get in MMA. Ortiz will wanna parlay this into some kind of title contention, but I think this just goes to show how ridiculous it was for Jones to get a title fight after beating Bader. Bader is good, but not that good. (1-2)

Carlos Condit def. Dong Hyun Kim (TKO 1)
Condit is climbing the ranks. He looked pretty good here, though it was a short fight. He has power, for sure. Nice flying knee. (2-2)

Dennis Siver def. Matt Wiman (unanimous)
I heard this one was controversial, but I don't get it. Wiman CLEARLY won the second round, but other than that, all he did was go for weak takedowns. He got one at the end of the first and midway through the third, but Siver was FAR more active on the standup. Takedown attempts should not count for anything, especially if it's a weak ass single leg. This was the right decision. (3-2)

Melvin Guillard def. Shane Roller (KO 1)
Guillard just looked way faster. This is one of those "yeah you're good - WEC good. Welcome to the UFC" kind of fights. (4-2)

Rafael dos Anjos def. George Sotiropoulos (KO 1)
Quick fight. Disappointing for George who was in the title hunt. He just got caught. (4-3)

Brian Bowles def. Takeya Mizugaki (unanimous)
Didn't see it. (5-3)

Aaron Simpson def. Brad Tavares (unanimous)
Didn't see it. (5-4)

Anthony Njokuani def. Andre Winner (unanimous)
Winner looked pretty one-dimensional. You won't win too many MMA fights that way. He hasn't grown since TUF. (5-5)

Jeff Hougland def. Donny Walker (unanimous)
Both of these guys looked good. Good fight. We'll see them again. (5-6)

Good event, but man did I get creamed. Surprising results.

UFC 132 Picks

Not a lot of time, so just quick picks:

Cruz

Wanderlei

Bader

Condit

Siver

Guillard

Sotiropoulos

Bowles

Tavares

Winner

Walker

This actually looks like a decent event. Too bad I'll miss it this cottage weekend.

UFC on Versus 4 Results

What a crazy event this turned out to be. There were some really great fights with spectacular finishes, but the big news was Nate Marquardt not being medically cleared and being cut from the UFC. What the heck did he do? Other fighters have tested positive for drugs and not been banned, so what could possibly be the reasoning here? We'll find out Tuesday, supposedly.

Let's get to the results:

Rick Story vs. Nate Marquardt (no fight)
This fight didn't happen, as I've said. Instead we got Charlie Brenneman filling in for Marquardt at the last minute.

Charlie Brenneman def. Rick Story (unanimous)

Brenneman had seen his own fight disappear when TJ Grant got hurt. Wonder how Story felt about this? And remember - Story was himself a late replacement for Anthony Rumble Johnson. Story had nothing to gain from this fight and everything to lose. As is the custom in these UFC situations, the guy with everything to lose did in fact lose. This put Brenneman on the map but seriously derailed Story's title aspirations. Despite the victory, Brenneman did not look good. He took Story down a couple of times and laid and prayed his way to the decision. He benefited from a generous ref who did not stand them up despite a lack of action. This is one area where the game has to change. Oh, and since the event took place in Pennsylvania, there were newbie refs for some fights - and it showed. One ref was simply awful, allowing one fighter to take too much abuse and he is the same one who let Brenneman steal his fight.

Cheick Kongo def. Pat Barry (KO 1)
Wow. CRAZY ending. Barry had this fight sewn up, charged in for the kill and got caught by Kongo for the massive come from behind KO. It was shocking, really, that the fight had not been stopped sooner. Kongo was clearly not defending himself, with his hands at his sides and wide open for abuse, but Barry woke him up with punches instead of putting him away. The ref did in fact put his hands on Barry when he was pummeling Kongo as if to stop it, but quickly took them off. I dunno...as soon as a ref puts his hands on a fighter, that ought to be it. The fighter is actually SUPPOSED to relent at that point. But the ref was Dan Miragliotta - the same guy who let the Lesnar-Carwin fight go, allowing Lesnar to recover and win the fight. Barry should have won this fight - but he didn't. Like Sell-Smith, this will be on the highlight reels forever. (0-1)

Matt Brown def. John Howard (unanimous)
This fight was boring as hell. Not sure what the heck Howard was thinking - he tried to take Brown down and gassed out in the process. Stupid. Brown got the win that he desperately needed, but, like Brenneman, he did not impress. He'll probably keep his job, though. (0-2)

Matt Mitrione def. Christian Morecraft (KO 2)
Great fight, as anticipated. These guys threw bombs and Mitrione proved he is a force to be reckoned with. He put Morecraft on his ass a few times but the ref let it go (he really should have stopped the fight sooner). This was the same ref as the Brenneman-Story fight, though. Let's hope Mitrione sees better opponents in the future. Pat Barry, maybe? (1-2)

Tyson Griffin def. Manny Gamburyan (majority)
Did not see it, but after a slow start it seems Griffin dominated the fight. (2-2)

Javier Vazquez def. Joe Stevenson (unanimous)
SURELY Joe Daddy will be cut after this. I mean, come on! He has not evolved since TUF and has shown he cannot hang with the big boys. Apparently he was dominated in this one. This loss means he is 3-7 in his last ten. That's disgusting. (3-2)

Joe Lauzon def. Curt Warburton (sub 1)
Apparently Lauzon put on anopther sick clinic. Dunno how he looked so bad against Sotiropoulos, but let's hope this is the beginning of a comeback. (4-2)

Rich Attonito def. Daniel Roberts (unanimous)
Apparently Roberts gassed and could not recover. (4-3)

Charles Oliveira def. Nik Lentz (sub 2)
We might see a rematch or no contest out of this one as the end apparently came as a result of an illegal knee that the ref missed. That allowed Oliveira to get the rear naked choke to finish what was till then a very entertaining fight, I hear. (5-3)

Ricardo Lamas def. Matt Grice (TKO 1)
Maybe the weight cut hurt Grice. (5-4)

Michael Johnson def. Edward Faaloloto (KO 1)
I hear Johnson looked decent. (6-4)

Meh. A winning record, but not so great. I hope I get to see some of those undercard fights on Unleashed.

UFC Live on Versus Picks

Rick Story vs. Nate Marquardt (welterweight)
This ought to be interesting because it marks the debut of Marquardt at welterweight - the same division as his training partner, GSP. If Marquardt wins, he'll move up the ladder quickly and could be in line for a title shot soon. Would he fight GSP? It would probably be a good challenge for the champ. Story is good, but I'm gonna pick Marquardt.

Pat Barry vs Cheick Congo (heavyweight)
Congo kinda sucks. His stand up is decent, but his ground game is atrocious. Good thing for him that Barry has no ground game either. In fact, Congo might look to take Barry down. Congo will enjoy a massive size advantage and it remains to be seen if Barry can get inside and hit the big guy. If these guys were the same size I'd pick Barry in a heartbeat. But with this size differential? It's tough. I think Congo will squeeze out a boring decision, but I hate pulling for that, so I'll pick Barry by TKO.

John Howard vs Matt Brown (welterweight)
I like Brown, but he's not really an elite MMA guy. He's a scrapper who would put on a good show in smaller promotions. He's a bit outclassed in the UFC. But he has a size advantage in this fight, which might make the difference. ...But I don't think so - I'll pick Howard. If Brown loses, he'll get cut for sure.

Matt Mitrione vs Christian Morecraft (heavyweight)
This ought to be fun. Both have significant power. Surprisingly enough, I'd say Mitrione is in better shape, so if he can get this past the first round his odds of winning increase. Morecraft finishes fights quick but we have yet to see Mitrione get knocked done. I'll pick Mitrione.

Manny Gamburyan vs Tyson Griffin (featherweight)
I was a fan of Manny's until he pulled the ultimate douche move in the Cox fight (striking when the opponent went to touch gloves). He's talented but small and does not have the best chin. Tyson was looking great for a while with some big wins and having lost only to champions. But he has lost three in a row, including one to has-been (and overrated) Takanori Gomi. Tyson needs this one badly or he might get cut. This fight also marks his return to featherweight. It could be a really good fight with two evenly-matched fighters who usually put on a good show. If Griffin tries to wrestle, Gamburyan might use his judo to throw Griffin around. Tough call. I'll pick Griffin.

Joe Stevenson vs Javier Vazquez (featherweight)
Another fight that features a move in weight class. This time it's UFC darling Joe Stevenson dropping to featherweight. Surely this is Joe Daddy's last kick at the can, his last chance to remain at all relevant. The guy has lost 6 of his last 9 fights, including 3 in a row and 5 of 7. Nice guy, but not UFC material - not anymore. The UFC must be in his corner, throwing him a bone in the form of Vazquez who has lost 3 of 5. I can't say I like either fighter in terms of UFC potential, but for this fight I'll pick Vazquez by submission.

Joe Lauzon vs Curt Warburton (lightweight)
Not sure what's going on here. Maybe Warburton is on the way up and Lauzon need a rebound fight, but I don't really see how this fight was put together. Lauzon has far more experience and having him fight a British guy form the Wolfslair is a bit of a mismatch. Warburton has a puncher's chance, but otherwise I see Lauzon ending this in the first by submission.

Daniel Roberts vs Rich Attonito (welterweight)
Two guys whose specialties are BJJ and wrestling. If that means a stand up war, I'll pick Attonito. But I see Roberts getting the advantage and taking this to the ground where he has the edge. I'll pick Roberts.

Nik Lentz vs Charles Oliveira (lightweight)
Boy I hope this one is on TV. This could be another great one. Lentz has a crazy record, but Oliveira has insane BJJ (even though he is only a brown belt). If it goes to decision, it'll be Lentz for sure. If not, it's Oliveira by submission. I hate rooting for decisions, so I'll pick Oliveira.

Ricardo Lamas vs Matt Grice (featherweight)
Yet another featherweight debut - this time it's Grice. Lamas looks but so does Grice. Grice is a wrestler but has a number of submission wins, usually by guillotine. I'm gonna pick randomly and go with Grice.

Michael Johnson vs Edward Faaloloto (lightweight)
Johnson is a former TUF finalist, losing to Johnathan Brookins. Johnson looked ok, but not great. Faaloloto is a nobody who somehow managed to get a UFC fight. Maybe it's 'cause he trains with Chris Leben? Who knows. The UFC site has him listed at 5-1 while Sherdog (and every other site) has him at 2-1. So he's a bit of a mystery and quite unproven. He looks decent, but he's so raw that I can't pick him. I'll pick Johnson.