UFC 136 Edgar vs Maynard III Picks

Here we go again!

These two put on a good show, so I'm not complaining. Who's gonna win? Let's find out.

Frankie Edgar vs Gray Maynard (lightweight)
Third time's a charm, right? So by that rationale, Edgar ought to take this... These guys are pretty evenly matched, with Edgar having the edge in speed and Maynard the edge in power. What will be different this time? Probably not much. Maynard could certainly fight smarter. He had Edgar at his mercy last time out, but instead of finishing off the champ with precision punches and elbows or even a choke, he threw punches in bunches and tired himself out without doing enough damage to end the fight. Lots of guys make this mistake when they have a guy on the ropes. If he fights smarter, I have Maynard taking it. If not, Edgar will take the decision. I'm picking Maynard.

Jose Aldo vs Kenny Florian (featherweight)
It's hard to go against Kenny. He's a smart fighter and knows what he has to do to win. But this is only his second fight at featherweight and he is taking on a very game champ. They are both BJJ/Muay Thai/boxing guys, with Aldo having the edge in power and Kenny having a slight reach/size advantage. Can Aldo knock out Kenny? Can Kenny choke out Aldo? Honestly, I don't like Kenny's chances here. He doesn't have featherweight speed. I could see him gassing or getting caught by a big punch. I'd like to pick him, but it wouldn't be smart. I'm picking Aldo.

Chael Sonnen vs Brian Stann (middleweight)
These two are very evenly matched as well, but Sonnen is the smarter fighter and has more to prove. ...But he hasn't fought in a year. Stann has two fights this calendar year alone. Impressive as they were, they were both against guys willing to bang. I don't see Sonnen being that stupid. He'll take Stann down and work him from there. Stann has proven in the past to have trouble off his back. A year ago, I would have picked Sonnen hands down. Now I'm not so sure. A year off is a long time. Still, I'll pick Sonnen.

Melvin Guillard vs Joe Lauzon (lightweight)
This ought to be interesting. A true clash of styles. Guillard is lightning fast with incredible power. Lauzon is a tactician with great submissions skills. Can Lauzon get Guillard to the ground? If he does, he takes it. If he doesn't, he's toast. I could see Lauzon getting KTFO or taking it easily by submission in the first round. I like Lauzon, while Guillard still comes off as a child in a man's body. I'll pick Lauzon.

Leonard Garcia vs Nam Phan (featherweight)
The rematch. Garcia got the decision the first time while Phan got robbed. He deserved the decision, but somehow the judges saw it differently. It was an ugly fight and this one probably won't be much prettier. Garcia is a wild man. He throws looping punches with abandon. Phan will be more technical and the winner will likely be determined by which judges are sitting octagon-side. While Phan did well on TUF he is hardly a top-notch fighter. He has lost his last two fights, 4 of his last 5, 5 of 7, and 7 of 11. Garcia, for his part, is hit and miss, but at least has faced decent opponents. He just can't beat any of them. His claim to fame is a controversial (again) win over the Korean Zombie as well as a KO win over an over-ripe Jens Pulver. So who takes this one? Let's go with Phan for fun.

Demian Maia vs Jorge Santiago (middleweight)
I like Maia. As long as he takes the fight to the ground. Recently, he has been relying a bit too much on his standup and taking fights to a decision. Santiago lost to Brian Stann the last time out and seems to have trouble inside the octagon in general. He has also lost fights to Diego Sanchez and Manvel Gamburyan (a 0:21 KO!). He has a lot of experience, but Maia is a top-notch BJJ fighter and I sense Santiago isn't quite up to his level. I'm picking Maia.

Anthony Pettis vs Jeremy Stevens (lightweight)
Could be fight of the night. Pettis is the former WEC lightweight champ and might have been UFC lightweight champ had he not dropped the ball against the always tough Clay Guida. Stevens is always game, always shows up to fight - he just tends to come out on the short end of decisions against top-flight competition. Pettis is definitely top flight. I'm picking Pettis.

Joey Beltran vs Stipe Miocic (heavyweight)
Beltran is hit and miss. You never know what you're going to get. He isn't fancy, but he's tough. But...Stipe who? Exactly. But guess what: this guy is a former Golden Gloves champ and NCAA Div I wrestler. He's also 6-0 with KO wins and a submission by LEG KICKS. His resume seems weird, though, with wins over guys named Gregory Maynard (not Gray), Jeremy Holm (not Horn) and Paul Barry (not Pat). Assuming this isn't a gag, this guy could prove to be very tough. Let's hope for fireworks. I've never been a big fan of Beltran's, so I'm gonna go with the dark horse upset special here and pick Miocic.

Tiequan Zhang vs Darren Elkins (featherweight)
Elkins is a wrestler with KO power and submission skills. Very dangerous. Zhang finishes guys fast and has only one loss - by decision. This could be over quick. Zhang has some wrestling in his background but he is definitely a submissions guy. If Elkins tries to take this to the ground, it could get very interesting. I'll pick Zhang.

Aaron Simpson vs Eric Schafer (middleweight)
Both of these guys are mid-carders looking for a break. Both tend to lose against top guys but have otherwise been impressive. Schafer is getting a second chance with the UFC as an injury replacement after being cut a year and a half ago. Simpson is 5-2 in the UFC and in no immediate danger of being cut, it seems. So will desperation lead to a win for Schafer? I don't see it that way. I'm picking Simpson.

Steve Cantwell vs Mike Massenzio (middleweight)
I'm not quite sure why this fight is on the card. Cantwell has lost three in a row and is dropping down to middleweight. Massenzio is often cannon fodder as well, having lost 3 of 4 and 5 of 7. I assume the loser goes home in this one. I don't like the looks of either of these guys but Cantwell is a former WEC champ and Masenzio has a loss to CB effing Dollaway on his resume. I'm picking Cantwell.

Too bad I'm gonna miss this event due to Thanksgiving. Most of the card looks great.