Tuesday, September 13, 2011

UFC Fight Night Shields vs Ellenberger

Alright, let's whip off some predictions while we have a minute, shall we?

Jake Shields vs Jake Ellenberger (welterweight)
Would love to see Ellenberger win this, but Shields has better cred in all categories. Gotta take the favourite, I guess. Shields for the win.

Court McGee vs Dongi Yang (middleweight)
I like McGee, but Yang is no pushover and looked pretty good last time out. This should be a good fight. I'll pick McGee.

Jonathan Brookins vs Erik Koch (featherweight)
Brookins is coming off his TUF win, but it's been a while. Koch has thunder in his fists and has looked great. I'm gonna pick Koch.

Alan Belcher vs Jason MacDonald (middelweight)
This is the fight I want to see. Belcher has had mixed success against decent competition and is on the upswing. An impressive win would put him in contender status. Like MacDonald, he has BJJ experience but he also has some decent power and muay thai knowledge. On the other side, this is a big opportunity for MacDonald. Back in the UFC and coming off a win after a broken leg, this is his chance to stick around for a while. A win would be huge for him and put him back on the map. He has had mixed success against tougher opponents than Belcher's, so he's no slouch though he will come in as the underdog. If he fights smart, he can take it. But he HAS to fight smart - something he hasn't always done. If he stays on his feet, he has to use his reach - but he'd be much better off taking this to the ground. I don't like his chances, but I'm picking MacDonald anyway.

Cody McKenzie vs Vogner Rocha (lightweight)
McKenzie is a guillotine machine. He's also VERY good on the ground, though he got a bit overconfident in his last fight and ended up getting submitted. He's a purple belt while Vogner is a black belt. These guys might end up keeping this standing. Still, I'll pick McKenzie.

Evan Dunham vs Shamar Bailey (lightweight)
Dunham has looked great in the past and was on his way to a title shot when he got seriously derailed by Melvin Guillard after a tough decision loss to Sean Sherk. Both of these guys have wrestling pedigrees, but Dunham is the more complete package. I'm picking Dunham.

Matthew Riddle vs Lance Benoist (welterweight)
Riddle has improved significantly since his stint on TUF. He still doesn't have a lot of experience, but Benoist has ZERO UFC experience despite a perfect record. He is submission artist and finishes guys fast, whereas Riddle tends to go to decision. I could see Riddle getting submitted here. I'll pick Benoist.

Ken Stone vs Donny Walker (bantamweight)
After starting 8-0, Stone has gone 1-for-4 since. Walker started off slowly, but has had more success recently, though he lost his UFC debut. Both are BJJ guys, but Walker has some muay thai and Stone has been KO'd a couple of times recently. I'll pick Walker.

Clay Harvison vs Seth Baczynski (welterweights)
Both of these guys finish fights fast. This could be a bonus money fight, for sure. Seth has more experience, but more mixed results. Bit of a toss up, this one. I'm gonna pick Baczynski.

TJ Waldburger vs Mike Stumpf (welterweight)
Where are the big boys on this card? Stumpf is a no name who used to fight at 185 it seems. Good record, but against nobodies and there are more decisions recently. Waldburger is more experienced and has faced tougher opponents. I'll pick Waldburger.

Mike Lullo vs Robert Peralta (featherweight)
Lullo is largely a submissions guy, while Peralta is largely unknown but has a very decent record. He scored an upset over the current DREAM champ at a Strikeforce event. That's no joke. I'll pick Peralta.

Justin Edwards vs Jorge Lopez (welterweight)
Clearly the UFC is looking to boost the lighter divisions, including welterweight where no one can seem to beat GSP. Edwards is big on submissions while Lopez is big on decisions. I don't like taking the boring guy, so I'll pic Edwards.

12 fights. That's a lot. I wonder how many we'll actually get to see....?

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