Friday, January 20, 2012

UFC on FX 1 Results

Man, just watched 5 hours of live fights on free tv. Sweet!

Jim Miller def. Melvin Guillard (sub 1)
Pretty much what you'd expect. Melvin couldn't KO Miller so Miller got the sub. Melvin really needs to work on sub defence...really...again. (1-0)

Josh Neer def. Duane Ludwig (sub 1)
Ludwig had the better of the stand up but once it went to the ground, it didn't take long for Neer to lock in a guillotine. If it had stayed standing, I think it would have been a different story. (2-0)

Mike Easton def. Jared Papzian (majority)
Fast-paced but largely ineffective striking. The fact that neither guy went down says less about the granite in the chins and more about the lack of real power. The fight stayed standing, so it came down to who the judges thought got the better shots in. From my point of view, Easton got some good shots, but Papzian got more shots and at least comparable quality shots. Close, but I might have given it to Papzian 29-28. As it was, it was 29-28, 30-27, 29-29 Easton. (3-0)

Pat Barry def. Christian Morecraft (KO 1)
Morecraft almost got the submission, but Barry defended well, and once it was on the feet, Barry had the edge. After a couple of big shots, Barry managed to get the W and avoid the axe. I expect Morecraft to get his walking papers. (4-0)

Jorge Rivera def. Eric Schafer (TKO 2)
Nice to see Rivera win his swan song fight. He has surprised me in the past and he did again. Schafer appeared to suffer from the weight cut and had nothing left in the tank after a dominant first round. Once Rivera got on top, it was over, as Schafer turtled and offered no resistance. (4-1)

Khabib Nurmagomedov def. Kamal Shalorus (sub 3)
Shalorus got clipped in the first and was not the same thereafter. Between rounds he was confused about what round was ahead, a clear sign he was out of it. H eventually tapped out to an awkward rear naked choke - again, perhaps indicative he was not all there. (4-2)

Charlie Brenneman def. Daniel Roberts (unanimous)
No sure how one judge gave it 29-28 - this was one way almost all the way. Roberts did try a couple of nice submissions, but Brenneman dominated. Strange reffing, as Herb Dean insisted on standing them up even though Brenneman was working. (5-2)

Fabricio Camoes def. Tommy Hayden (sub 1)
Hayden was doing alright, but Camoes was too much. (5-3)

Daniel Pineda def. Pat Schilling (sub 1)
This was a mismatch. Schilling had a decent record (5-0) but was clearly untested. Pineda took advantage and schooled the UFC newcomer. (6-3)

Nick Denis def. Joseph Sandoval (KO 1)
The Canadian made a big splash. Caught Sandoval with some crisp shots and then finished with some crazy standing elbows. (7-3)

Not bad, I guess.

UFC on FX 1

Only have about 15 minutes, so I don't have time for a full analysis of this relatively thin card; I'll just tell you who I like rather than making studied picks.

Jim Miller over Melvin Guillard
Josh Neer over Duane Ludwig
Mike Easton over Jared Papzian (I guess)
Pat Barry over Christian Morecraft (loser goes home)
Eric Schafer over Jorge Rivera
Kamal Shalorus over Khabib Nurmagomedov
Charlie Brenneman over Daniel Roberts
Tommy Hayden over Fabricio Camoes
Daniel Pineda over Pat Schilling
Nick Denis over Joseph Sandoval

Thursday, January 5, 2012

UFC 141 Results

Alistair Overeem def. Brock Lesnar (TKO 1)
Not sure what Brock's game plan was. He made one half-assed attempt at a takedown, but otherwise stood with the striker and paid for it. Brock can't take a punch, we all know that, but apparently the kicks were too much to handle as well. Didn't necessarily make Overeem look good, but we'll find out soon enough when he fights Junior Dos Santos for the belt. (1-0)

Nate Diaz def. Donald Cerrone (unanimous)
W.T.F....? What was Cerrone thinking? He took out Diaz's legs numerous times but refused to go to the ground with the BJJ guy. Was he THAT afraid? Or was he just pig-headed? Diaz has lost numerous fights by going to the ground but not being able to finish. Surely Cerrone could have avoided getting submitted, so... This should have been a walk for Cerrone, but he totally and utterly blew it. Brutal. (1-1)

Johny Hendricks def. Jon Fitch (KO 1)
Don't think anyone saw this coming. Hendrick is talented, but knocking out Fitch with his first punch? Not so much. Tough break for Fitch. This was obviously a fluke, but it still counts. Does it make Hendricks the #1 contender? Maybe. Not sure who else deserves it. Fitch would have been in that spot had he won, so... (1-2)

Alexander Gustafson def. Vladimir Matyushenko (KO 1)
Another quick one. Gustafson has power for a tall, lanky guy. Keep an eye on him. (2-2)

Jimy Hettes def. Nam Phan (unanimous)
Wow. Hettes dominated Phan and made him look like a child. I'm not sure Phan is a top guy, but Hettes certainly looked great. Multiple 10-8 rounds. Glad I picked him. (3-2)

Ross Pearson def. Junior Assuncao (unanimous)
Assuncao simply didn't show up. A poor performance. (3-3)

Danny Castillo def. Anthony Njokuani (split)
Takedowns won the day. Castillo didn't do much, just laid and prayed. Boring fight. (3-4)

Dong Hyun Kim def. Sean Pierson (unanimous)
Pierson is a nice guy, but perhaps not UFC calibre. Kim clearly won. (4-4)

Jacob Volkmann def. Efrain Escudero (unanimous)
Missed it. Looks like Volkmann dominated. (5-4)

Matthew Riddle vs Luis Ramos (welterweight)
This fight didn't happen as Riddle took ill just before the fight.

Diego Nunes def. Manny Gamburyan (unanimous)
Looks like Nunes dominated. (6-4)

Not the most entertaining night ever as lots of guys just didn't come prepared, it seemed. Lesnar, Cerrone, Assuncao just didn't have the right game plans.

Thursday, December 29, 2011

UFC 141 Picks

Alright, quick and dirty. I'm on vacation and thinking hurts my brain.

Brock Lesnar vs Alistair Overeem (heavyweight)
Lesnar has very little chance in this one, I figure. Sure, he may get Overeem down and pound him, but I think it far more likely Overeem will punch Lesnar in the jaw and it'll be over. Overeem has way too much experience to get overwhelmed by Lesnar. I'm picking Overeem.

Nate Diaz vs Donald Cerrone (lightweight)
This could be a great scrap. I see Cerrone taking it though since he's the smarter fighter. A win here ought to put him in the title picture. An upset by Diaz would be huge for him, I think. I'm picking Cerrone.

Jon Fitch vs Johny Hendricks (welterweight)
The long layoff could really hurt Fitch in what ought to be a great fight. I like both of these guys, but Fitch is a machine. Assuming he comes back 100%, I think he gets the better of the very game Hendricks. I'm picking Fitch.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs Alexander Gustafson (light heavyweight)
Every time I count the Janitor out he surprises me. But Gustafson has a promising career ahead of him and this is a good test. I'm picking Gustafson.

Nam Phan vs Jimy Hettes (featherweight)
Jimy who? You might think that, but this guy is actually undefeated and is a submissions machine. Phan is decent but has flaws. He has way more experience but I'm gonna bet he underestimates his opponent and gets submitted. That's my upset special of the night. I'm picking Hettes.

Ross Pearson vs Junior Assuncao (featherweight)
I like Pearson and Asuncao has disappointed me in the past. But this is a featherweight fight. Pearson ought to have the standup advantage but if Assuncao can get this to the ground, he has a very good chance. This is a tough call. I'm gonna pick Assuncao in a bit of an upset.

Anthony Njokuani vs Danny Castillo (lightweight)
I'm getting tired. I'm picking Njokuani.

Dong Hyun Kim vs Sean Pierson (welterweight)
Hate going against the Canadian, but... I'm picking Kim.

Jacob Volkmann vs Efrain Escudero (lightweight)
Escudero has stumbled a bit since winning TUF8, even getting cut from the UFC. He is a replacement for an injured fighter in this one. Volkmann has disappointed me in the past. This is a matchup of wrestlers, but I could see Volkmann getting the submission. I'm picking Volkmann.

Matthew Riddle vs Luis Ramos (welterweight)
Ramos is essentially a nobody, but he has a better record than Riddle. With 3 losses in his last 5 fights, this could be do or die for Riddle in the UFC. I think he dies. I'm picking Ramos.

Manny Gamburyan vs Diego Nunes (featherweight)
Gamburyan lost my respect with that BS with Jeff Cox so I like it when he fights good fighters - it means I can pick against him. I'm picking Nunes.

Monday, November 21, 2011

UFC 139 Results

This was a great card and from what I saw it did not disappoint.

Dan Henderson def. Maurcio Rua (unanimous)
What's a UFC event without controversy? Dan Henderson did very well for the first three rounds and then proceeded to shut it down and get his ass handed to him by Shogun Rua for the next ten minutes. Fortunately for him, the judges gave him 3 out of the 5 rounds and he got the unanimous decision. So where's the controversy? Well, if there was EVER an argument for a 10-8 (or even 10-7) round, Rua's utter dominance of Hendo in round #5 was it. Rua SLAUGHTERED Henderson for five full minutes. Shame on Rua for not finding a way to end it (submission, anyone?) but you HAD to give him 10-8 or better. Not ONE judge gave him the 10-8 margin, though, which would have made all the difference. I had it 47-47 and a draw - a fitting end to a fight that was so evenly matched overall. These guys deserve to go at it again. A win for Hendo was a bit disgraceful, considering how pathetic he looked for the final two rounds. And if he gets a TITLE SHOT after this?! Please. No one tuning in half way through could have possibly imagined the man on the bottom, getting relentlessly pummeled, could have POSSIBLY won that fight. Chalk another on up to bizarre judging. (0-1)

Wanderlei Silva def. Cung Le (TKO 2)
Wow. This was awesome. Silva looked tentative and nervous at first, and hung out on the periphery while Le measured him. But then Silva started letting his shots go and the tide turned quickly. Le has a questionable gas tank and Silva exploited it in the second round. In the end, Silva was just too much and Le was messed up. Great fight between two free swingers. (1-1)

Urijah Faber def. Brian Bowles (sub 2)
Give Faber credit for getting the submission against a tough opponent. Thanks to this, Faber will get YET ANOTHER title shot. Is there a fighter in MMA who gets more credit for wins than Faber? I dunno. Maybe other guys should get a shot once in a while? (1-2)

Martin Kampmann def. Rick Story (split)
Controversy again, in my mind. Story MAY have won round one, but who in their right mind had him winning one of the last two rounds? Kampmann clearly won those two. A split decision does not do Kampmann's win justice. This should have been at least 29-28 across the board. (2-2)

Stephan Bonnar def. Kyle Kingsbury (unanimous)
Bonnar fought smart (but dull) while Kingsbury honestly just did not show up. I thought Kingsbury would have an advantage in the wrestling department, but Bonnar flat-out schooled his less experienced opponent. Once Bonnar got on top, he used his underrated jiujitsu to secure the win. This was a big step back for Kingsbury. (2-3)

Ryan Bader def. Jason Brilz (KO 1)
Quick fight. Bader used his power, clipped Brilz behind the ear and it was all over. Puts Bader back on track. Look for him to get put back on the fast track with a much tougher opponent. (3-3)

Michael McDonald def. Alex Soto (KO 1)
McDonald looked great. He used his stand-up effectively and Soto got KTFO in under one minute. Things are looking up for the youngster. (4-3)

Chris Weidman def. Tom Lawlor (sub 1)
Weidman continues to surprise and look good. Lawlor is no push over, but Weidman seemed to finish him with ease. This kid has lots of potential. (5-3)

Gleison Tibau def. Rafael Dos Anjos (split)
Didn't see it. Fight metrics show Tibau got in more shots and a couple of take downs. (6-3)

Miguel Angel Torres def. Nick Pace (unanimous)
Didn't see it. Looks like it may have been the mismatch I expected. (7-3)

Seth Baczynski def. Matt Brown (sub 2)
This wasn't pretty, but it went the way I thought it would. Brown likes to swing and throw knees inside but he doesn't seem to have the complete game that is needed. He tends to get caught somehow and he did here, once again. Too bad. (8-3)

Danny Castillo def. Shamar Bailey (TKO 1)
Debatable early stoppage - especially with 8 seconds left in the round - but Bailey was pulling the turtle and was warned by the ref to fight back. Castillo pretty much dominated. (9-3)

Not bad!

Thursday, November 17, 2011

UFC 139 Picks

I didn't bother making picks for UFC on Fox. It was a pretty crap card aside from the main event and the Henderson-Guida fight, which was awesome. Some people didn't give Dos Santos much of a chance against Velasquez, but it came as no surprise to me that he won. Velasquez had never really had his chin tested, except a bit against Kongo when he got rocked but recovered. I knew that if Dos Santos could stuff the takedowns he'd have a pretty good chance. Turns out he only had to stuff one before getting the big KO.

But now it's on to a real card - UFC 139. Let's get to it.

Dan Henderson vs. Maurcio Rua (light heavyweight)
So Hendo is back in the UFC and still can't seem to settle on a weight class. I think he'd have more success as a middleweight, personally, but if he wants to take on bigger guys, good for him. This is a huge fight for him. If he wins, he's right back in the title picture. If he loses, though, a lot of people will say he has lost it and point to his loss to Jake Shields as proof, despite his more recent victory over previously highly-touted Fedor Emelianenko. Rua is coming off his gimme win over Forrest Griffin (another no-win scenario fight for Griffin to take) and is looking to get back in the title hunt after getting smoked by current champ Jon Bones Jones. Both of these guys have power. Hendo has wrestling going for him, which appears to be a bit of a weakness for Rua. But Rua is smarter, more skilled, and has BJJ on his side. Can Hendo get Rua down? I dunno. I see this as a stand up war. I see Rua getting the decision. I'm picking Rua.

Cung Lee vs Wanderlei Silva (middleweight)
Silva has lost 6 of 8. Normally, that would get you kicked out of the UFC, but the UFC likes keeping legends around. This, again, falls into the category of guys getting fights for who they are not what they are. But Lee is not exactly a top level opponent at this time, so he has a chance. Lee has been away from MMA, pursuing an acting career. Frankly, the only reason we know his name is because he was a big fish in the small Strikeforce pond. For the most part, he has fought guys who couldn't cut it in the UFC. Sure, his record is good, but it's inflated, much like Fedor's. He's flashy and can throw punches and kicks from crazy angles, but can he withstand a Silva berserker attack. Silva isn't exactly known for fighting smart, so it remains to be seen if he can execute a proper gameplan. I could see Lee getting a decision, but Silva getting a KO. I don't like Silva's chances, but I'm gonna pick him anyway. I'm going with Silva.

Brian Bowles vs Urijah Faber (bantamweight)
This could be fight of the night. Talented, relentless guys in a speedy weight class. Faber is the name, but Bowles is the favourite in my mind. Frankly, I think Faber is overrated. Sure, he puts in the effort, but he seems to worry too much about putting on a good show and not enough about winning smart. I'm picking Bowles.

Martin Kampmann vs Rick Story (welterweight)
Another good fight. Both of these guys have done well and were on the rise before getting derailed. On paper, Kampmann is the more talented, well-rounded fighter. Story has shown, though, that he can overcome odds and upset favoured opponents. Still, I think Kampmann will fight smart and get the W. I'm picking Kampmann.

Stephan Bonnar vs Kyle Kingsbury (light heavyweight)
Another terrific match-up. This could be a war. Kingsbury is a beast, but does not necessarily fight smart. Bonnar is a relentless machine who takes punishment and keeps coming. This is not likely to be the prettiest fight of the night, but it's another FOTN candidate. If Kingsbury is smart, this could be a walk in the park - he just needs to take Bonnar down and keep him there. Boxing would be a mistake. I like Bonnar and all, but I'm picking Kingsbury in a disappointingly dull decision.

Ryan Bader vs Jason Brilz (light heavyweight)
How the mighty have fallen. Bader was considered a very strong up-and-comer until he ran into current champ Jon Jones and got slaughtered. Then the got submitted by a very fortunate Tito Ortiz and suddenly he's on the undercard. On paper, this is a mismatch in Bader's favour. He has more skills than Brilz, a better record, and he has beaten guys Brilz has lost to. So, no surprise, I'm picking Bader.

Michael McDonald vs Alex Soto (bantamweight)
Alex Soto is a replacement for Johnny Eduardo and is in tough against the more experienced McDonald. I'm picking McDonald.

Tom Lawlor vs Chris Weidman (middleweight)
Weidman is pretty raw, but has been impressive. Lawlor has talent, but has been upset more than once. Lawlor should have the experience edge, but he's fighting a guy who is also a wrestler, so he can't really rely on his top strength. I'm gonna go with the upset and pick Weidman.

Gleison Tibau vs Rafael Dos Anjos (lightweight)
Tibau is back again. I never know what to make of this guy. Sometimes he looks great, other times he looks awful. Dos Anjos is super talented at BJJ, but Tibau has some skills, too. Tibau is likely better ion the feet, though, which is where this fight will likely remain. Tough call. I'll pick the more experienced Tibau.

Miguel Angel Torres vs Nick Pace (bantamweight)
Speaking of fallen mighties...Holy cow. Torres was a big shot in WEC and a champ they thought would be on top forever. Suddenly he's near the bottom of the undercard? I guess losing 3 of 5 will do that. And how does a guys who is 38-4 get a fight against a guy who is 6-2? I thought they had commissions for this very reason. If Pace wins, I think it'll be a serious upset and perhaps the beginning of the end for Torres' long career. I'm picking Torres.

Matt Brown vs Seth Baczynski (welterweight)
Brown is a likable guy, but to be honest he simply isn't that good. After losing three in a row, he avoided being cut and got a win over John Howard. Baczynski is bigger than Brown and knows submissions - something by which Brown is prone to getting defeated. I'm picking Baczynski.

Shamar Bailey vs Danny Castillo (lightweight)
Bailey is known to TUF fans where he was favoured but did not reach the finals. Castillo does not have Bailey's celebrity, but he does have a more impressive resume, having fought some of the top dogs in the lightweight division. In fact, his only losses are against top guys, with the exception perhaps of Jacob Volkmann to whom he lost 29-28 on all cards. Both are wrestlers, but Castillo is also a striker. I'm gonna pick the upset and take Castillo.

Great card. I hope I get to see it!

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

UFC 138 Results

Ok, let's check the results...

Mark Munoz def. Chris Leben (TKO 2)
Cut or no cut, you could tell Leben's heart was not in this one. He said afterwards that he just didn't have the mad-on for Munoz like he normally does because he likes Munoz too much. Leben could have continued, surely - Koscheck fought for 4 rounds with a busted orbital bone - but he quit. Based on his comments after the fight, Leben is considering retirement. (1-0)

Renan Barao def. Brad Pickett (sub1)
Pickett was chucking leather, but Barao was more accurate. When he finally clipped Pickett with the big knee, it was just a matter of time before he found a way to finish the fight. Barao looked pretty good. (2-0)

Thiago Alves def. Papy Abedi (sub 1)
Another one where big shots led to a submission. Alves didn't look great but he got the win. Abedi didn't look bad, he just bit off more than he could chew in his UFC debut. (3-0)

Terry Etim def. Edward Faaloloto (sub 1)
Mismatch. Etim was the much better, smarter fighter and won easily. (4-0)

Anthony Perosh def. Cyrille Diabate (sub 2)
Neither one of these guys looked good. Diabate was doing well in the stand up, but once it went to the ground he was lost. (4-1)

John Maguire def. Justin Edwards (unanimous)
Ugly, boring fight. Maguire laid and prayed to victory. Boring as hell. (4-2)

Michihiro Omigawa def. Jason Young (unanimous)
Another boring fight dominated by wrestling and position. Omigawa did little, but Young did less. (4-3)

Phil De Vries def. Rob Broughton (unanimous)
Missed most of this one, but De Vries looked dominant. (5-3)

Che Mills def. Chris Cope (TKO 1)
Mills looked great against an admittedly mediocre Cope. We will see more of Mills. (6-3)

Chris Cariaso def. Vaughan Lee (split)
Didn't see it. (7-3)

Not bad.