UFC 137 Picks

I'm exhausted for some bizarre reason and not thinking straight, but wanted to get my picks in for tomorrow's event out of principle. If I get half of these right it'll be a miracle.

BJ Penn vs Nick Diaz (welterweight)
Penn back at welterweight, talking title run. As if he deserves to face GSP after losing to him twice already, having lost his last two fights at a lower weight class and his only win since his return to welterweight was against a guy well past his prime who has not beaten a decent opponent in over 5 years. Right. Then there's Nick Diaz, who has been lighting them up since he was rejected by the UFC and moved to Strikeforce.But let;s face it: he hasn't beaten anyone of calibre in over 6 years! Before that, he lost to Joe Riggs, Sean Sherk and Diego Sanchez, who were decent back then, but haven't come close to the welterweight title. So, who is this new Diaz? Is he the real deal or just smoke and mirrors, created out of the dust of a clearly inferior organization? Well, Penn makes for a pretty good test, I guess. If he beats Penn cleanly, it means he's for real. Does it mean he should get a title shot? Hells f***ing no, but the UFC will give him one anyway. I'm not sure who to cheer for 'cause I don't think either of these guys deserves a title shot as a result. I think that if Penn wins, though, the UFC will have a harder time selling a GSP match-up which means MAYBE it won't happen. So that's reason enough to cheer for Penn I guess. This is a very even match-up, with both guys possessing BJJ skills and good stand-up. It may come down to cardio, in which case Diaz wins. I may pull for Penn to win, but my head just doesn't see it happening. I think Diaz will use his jab and eke out a decision.

Cheick Kongo vs Matt Mitrione (heavyweight)
Another good match-up. Big guys who like to strike. Kongo has WAY more experience and that may make the difference. Mitrione has surprised me with his resilience and his ability to get the W, though, and he has yet to get knocked down decisively. I'm gonan go with the upset and pick Mitrione.

Mirko Filipovic vs Roy Nelson (heavyweight)
This one is another intriguiing match-up. Cro Cop is well past his prime and is often dwarfed in the heavyweight division. But this time he's fighting a guy who is actually shorter, though he weights about 40 pounds more. This fight will prove once and for all if Cro Cop has anything left. Nelson will be a big, fat target. If Cro Cop can't head kick him, then that's it for the former tough guy. Nelson's best chance of winning this fight is to get Cro Cop to the ground and use his bulk to cripple his opponent while raining down some ground and pound. I actually think that'll happen. I just can't bet on Cro Cop these days. I'm picking Nelson.

Scott Jorgensen vs Jeff Curran (bantamweight)
Jorgensen is a top level guy while Curran is a vet with lots of experience. Unfortunately for him, most of the recent stuff isn't all that good. I'm picking Jorgensen.

Hatsu Hioki vs George Roop (featherweight)
The UFC really needs to update it's fighter profiles with some pictures. Roop has been around for a while, making an appearance on TUF and having mixed results since. Hioki has a very good record, but none of it in the UFC. I don't normally like to pick Japanese fighters making their UFC debuts, but his record is swaying me. I like Roop and he should have a good reach advantage, but I'm gonna pick the dark horse and go with Hioki.

Dennis Siver vs Donald Cerrone (lightweight)
This could be a very good fight. Siver is on the fringe of the elite and has impressed at times, while Cerrone is a top dog from WEC looking to make a name for himself in the UFC. The key for Cerrone is getting this fight to the ground where he should have the edge, despite Siver's credentials. I'm picking Cerrone.

Tyson Griffin vs Bart Palaszewski (lightweight)
Griffin is a UFC veteran while Bart is making his UFC debut after decent success in WEC. Bart has power on his side, while Griffin will have the wrestling advantage and may be able to get a decision. I like to cheer for a finish, so I'll go with Palaszewski.

Brandon Vera vs Eliot Marshall (light heavyweight)
Is this a loser-goes-home match? Maybe. After making a big splash. Vera has seriously disappointed in recent fights, granted against top guys. Marshall has a decent record, but has not exactly lit the UFC on fire and is coming off a loss. If Vera loses he definitely goes home unless he's sleeping with a UFC executive. A win would likely keep Marshall around for at least another fight. Vera ought to win this fight easily, but it all depends on his heart. I can't believe Vera could have fallen THIS far. I'm picking Vera.

Ramsey Nijem vs Dan Downes (lightweight)
Nijem did fairly well on TUF. Never heard of Downes but he has a better record and can knock guys out - something Nijem is familiar with following his TUF finale loss. I like Nijem, but I like Downes to win this fight.

Chris Camozzi vs Francis Carmont (middleweight)
Camozzi is a TUF competitor who has a decent record but no big wins. Carmont is a newcomer who trains with GSP and finishes fights fast one way or the other. I'm gonan pick the dark horse once again and go with Carmont for fun.

Dustin Jacoby vs Clifford Starks (middleweight)
Newcomers, I guess. This could be fun, though, as both guys are undefeated and have perfect records with lots of KO/TKOs. I'm gonna go with the bigger guy - Jacoby.