Thursday, September 29, 2011

UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson Picks

Is it my imagination or is there a UFC event every weekend these days?

Dominick Cruz vs Demetrious Johnson (bantamweight)
I know sweet FA about Johnson, other than he is tiny - even for a bantamweight. He's a wrestler, while Cruz is very well rounded. Both of these guys tend to go to decision recently. I'm gonna pick Cruz.

Pat Barry vs Stefan Struve (heavyweight)
I like both of these guys. On paper, Struve has a crazy advantage thanks to his reach. Both have KO power, but Bary has SERIOUS KO power. Struve's chin is questionable, though while Barry has yet to be KO'd (other than by fluke vs Kongo). I could see this as being a replay of Struve's loss to Travis Browne or Roy Nelson where the smaller guy finally gets inside and lands the big shot to the glass jaw. I also see Barry chopping down the giant with leg kicks. I'm picking Barry.

Anthony Johnson vs Charlie Brenneman (welterweight)
I like Brenneman, but I do not like his chances in this fight. Johnson is an up and comer who has shown great talent and would be contending for the title had it not been for an iffy loss to Josh Koshcheck and the phantom knee strike. Brenneman has the better record, but Johnson has tougher fights under his belt. Both tend to go to decision. Both are wrestlers, but Johnson has some striking pedigree as well. I'm picking Johnson.

Matt Wiman vs Mac Danzig (lightweight)
Could be an interesting fight. Both of these guys are far form having secure places with the company. Mid-carders, essentially, who show little threat for the lightweight belt. Wiman is popular, but has not won any of the big fights he's been in. Danzig is a TUF champ who showed lots of promise but then fell on hard times, losing 3 straight to tough competitors. He is 2-1 since then, including a loss to the same Matt Wiman. It was a controversial stoppage, though, with the ref stepping in to break up a submission despite the fact Danzig had not tapped or been rendered unconscious. Danzig will be looking for revenge, which should give him an edge. Still, I'm gonna pick the more well-rounded Wiman.

Yves Edwards vs Rafaello Oliveira (lightweight)
Edwards has been fighting forever. He's a journeyman who has never really impressed in the UFC. Oliveira has a fine record but loses all of his significant fights. Is this a battle of losers? Tough pick. I think I'll pick Edwards.

Michael Johnson vs Paul Sass (lightweight)
Johnson was a TUF competitor from whom great things were expected. So far, though, he has shown that he is a diamond in the rough at best. He has also shown he can be submitted. Sass has a perfect record, though he has only one UFC fight. He is a submissions ninja, with a penchant for triangle chokes. I'm picking Sass.

Mike Easton vs Byron Bloodworth (bantamweight)
Who? Don't know these guys. Mystery bantamweights. I can't wait for this season of TUF to be over so that we'll have some more recognizable faces in the division. Easton has a good record, including a win over the supposedly well-known Chase Beebe. Easton is a champion (UWC) while Bloodworth doesn't have a Wikipedia page and is an injury replacement. I'm picking Easton.

Shane Roller vs TJ Grant (lightweight)
Could be a good fight. Roller is a well-rounded wrestler who contended for a belt not so long ago, but seems to drop the ball in the really big fights. Grant is a Canadian with very well rounded skills, but has dropped some decisions lately at 170. He's dropping down in weight here, so who knows what kind of effect it'll have. If he cuts right, he ought to have a slight size advantage over Roller and ought to be able to nullify any wrestling. I'd give Grant the edge on the feet, so I'm picking Grant.

Josh Neer vs Keith Wisniewski (welterweight)
After two years away, Neer is back in the UFC, this time at welterweight. He has had success at that weight away from the UFC. Wisniewski is a nobody but has a TON of fights over a 13-year career. The guy has fought in just about every organization and even has a loss to Shonie Carter via spinning back fist! I don't lie his chances here, though, so I'm picking Neer.

Walel Watson vs Joseph Sandoval (bantamweight)
No idea. Watson is a submissions machine, it seems. Very tall for a bantamweight (5'11"). Sandoval is undefeated and has some power, it seems. I hate decisions, though, so let's hope Watson submits him. I'm picking Watson.

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