UFC 138 Picks

Coming very quickly on the heels of UFC 137 and just before the UFC makes its big splash on network TV comes this forgotten PPV. Except it really isn't a PPV because it's airing for free over here - dunno if the English are being hosed for this Birmingham-based event. Consider that Chris Leben and Mark Munoz are the main event and it gives you some idea of how ugly this little stepchild is. Anyhow, let's get to the picks.

Chris Leben vs Mark Munoz (middleweight)
Both of these guys show some promise but are frustratingly inconsistent. Leben has a great chin and can throw bombs, but tends to lose the big fights. In fact, he's coming off a big loss to Brian Stann - a fight that propelled Stann into a #1 contenders fight - followed by an impressive and quick win over aging vet Wanderlei Silva. Munoz is a wrestler with power who is perhaps bets known for getting KTFO by Matt Hamill back in 2009. Turns out that that KO is one of only two losses on his resume, though, so he's doing pretty well. I could see Munoz taking Leben down and getting the decision, though this is scheduled to go five rounds (the first non-title five rounder in UFC history). Can Munoz really avoid standing a trading with Leben for five rounds? If they trade, who comes out on top? Do either of these guys have the gas tank to go five rounds? See, that's where the difference lies. I think Munoz can handle a longer fight, while Leben tends to gas. If Munoz fights smart and takes Leben down, he stands an even better chance of wearing out the Crippler. I'm taking Munoz.

Brad Pickett vs Renan Barao (bantamweight)
Ok, bad sign: I don't recognize either of these guys and it's the co-main event. Sure, they're bantamweights, but... Pickett is a veteran with a good record. Barao has little UFC experience but is undefeated in 26 straight! That's insane, even if he is fighting meatheads. Both claim to have BJJ skills, but something tells me Barao's is a bit more legit. Pickett will have the stand-up advantage, one would think, but Barao has a few KO's himself. Pickett seems like the wise choice, but I'm gonna go with another upset and pick Barao.

Thiago Alves vs Papy Abedi (welterweight)
I guess Alves has fallen on hard times - never heard of his opponent. Abedi may have a perfect 8-0 record, but he doesn't have a single name on his resume. I just can't pick him even though Alves is struggling. I'm picking Alves.

Terry Etim vs Edward Faaloloto (lightweight)
I'm not sure what Faaloloto is doing in the UFC or why he is fighting a guy like Etim. Etim ought to wipe the floor with this guy and send him packing. Faaloloto winning would certainly be the upset of the night. I'm picking Etim.

Cyrille Diabate vs Anthony Perosh (light heavyweight)
Perosh doesn't look like much, but he ain't bad. Diabate shows promise when he's aggressive. Perosh has a habit of getting KO'd against bangers and that's Diabate's style. I'm picking Diabate.

John Maguire vs Justin Edwards (welterweight)
Tough call. I know very little about Maguire who is making his UFC debut other than he has been a champ in other promotions but has fought a bunch of nobodys. He has a good record, though. Edwards is relatively new to the game but is doing well at 7-1. He has had a harder time against the top competition since graduating to the UFC, but that's one step further than Maguire. Dunno if it's an upset, but I'll pick Edwards.

Michihiro Omigawa vs Jason Young (featherweight)
Neither of these guys is impressive. Omigawa loses lots of decisions and Young is susceptible to submissions. Omigawa has more experience, but a lower winning percentage. He can't seem to beat anyone who has competed in the UFC. I'll pick the young guy - Young.

Rob Broughton vs Phil De Vries (heavyweight)
I like Broughton but De Vries looks a bit scary for a heavyweight. He's British but seems to have sick submissions skills. WTF is a "brabo choke"? (oh - looks like an anaconda choke) I'm gonan go with the dark horse again and pick De Vries.

Chris Cope vs Che Mills (welterweight)
Cope did alright on TUF while Mills is a nobody. This card is stacked with them. Some eagle-eyed folk might recognize Mills from TUF US vs UK where he lost an elimination fight on the debut episode and never got into the house. He lost to eventual winner James Wilkes, though, so perhaps that bodes well. He actually had Wilkes on his back, but got caught in a leg lock. Since then, he has done alright. I predict this'll be a free swinging affair, but I like Mills' chances. I'm picking Mills.

Chris Cariaso vs Vaughan Lee (bantamweight)
Neither of these guys seems all that impressive. Go figure on this card. I'll pick the guy with experience - Cariaso.

Man, this card is UGLY. Let's hope it's a good show.