UFC 102 Predictions

OK, a little busy, but have to get my predictions in before the event on Saturday (which I’m going to miss – darn it!).

Randy Couture Vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (heavyweight)

Both are aging warriors, but Nogueira seems to be showing his age more than Captain America. Neither has looked spectacular in recent showings, though Couture lost to Lesnar (no shame there) while Nogeira hasn’t looked sharp in the octagon at all. Both are known for pulling off victories despite the odds. On paper Nogueira seems to have the edge in size and skill, but I can never count Randy out. He seems to always come in with a good game plan and I think he’ll find a way to squeeze this one out.

My money’s on: Couture.

Keith Jardine Vs. Thiago Silva (light heavyweight)

Frankly, I can’t believe people still talk about Jardine being “in the title mix”. He’s beaten some good fighters but he’s lost more than his fair share of fights and to guys one would expect an elite fighter to beat. He seems like a nice guy and I used to be a fan, but I’m getting a little tired of the unwarranted hype. I’m almost hoping Silva sends him packing to clear up the light heavy division. I can see Silva knocking Jardine out.

My money’s on: Silva.

Chris Leben Vs. Jake Rosholt (middleweight)

Leben is a psycho but a tough son of a gun. He’s always willing to bang, but can easily be outsmarted by a good game plan. Rosholt doesn’t seem like much, so if Leben wants to stick around, he had better find a way to knock this guy out.

My money’s on: Leben.

Nate Marquardt Vs. Demian Maia (middleweight)

Could be fight of the night. Probably the two most skilled guys on the card. I like Marquardt but for whatever reason he seems to come up a bit short in big fights. This is a doozy as it will probably be a #1 contenders fight. Maia is talented but has some holes – had Jason MacDonald fought a smarter fight against him, Maia probably would have lost. I don’t see Marquardt getting submitted.

My money’s on: Marquardt.

Brandon Vera Vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (light heavyweight)

I’m peeved I’m gonna miss this one. This could be great. I’m a fan of “The Polish Experiment” and like his style and humour. Vera got a big push when he first came to the UFC but has suffered some massive setbacks since. Is he once again ready for prime time? If he loses, he may very well be shown the door. I’m hoping Krzysztof pulls it off and keeps his streak alive.

My money’s on: Soszynski.

Ed Herman Vs. Aaron Simpson (middleweight)

Herman is talented but needs to learn greater discipline. He’s got the tools but needs to get his head straight and in the game. Don’t know much about this Simpson guy, but apparently he has some killer knockout power, winning all of his fights by KO/TKO. Look for Herman to shoot and test Simpson’s ground game.

My money’s on: Herman (if he’s smart).

Gabriel Gonzaga Vs. Chris Tuchscherer (heavyweight)

Gonzaga is another guy who got a big push early thanks to a big win over Cro Cop but has not been stellar since. His opponent has a terrific record (17-1) and will probably get an equally large push if he defeats Napao. I think this fight may come down to where it takes place. I’d give Gonzaga the edge on the ground, Tuchscherer the edge standing up.

My money’s on: Tuchscherer in a tough one – if he can overcome first UFC fight nerves.

Justin McCully Vs. Mike Russow (heavyweight) – Could be interesting. Both of these guys seem to have a good amount of submission wins, which is rare for heavyweights. I’ll pick Russow to pull it off in his UFC debut.

Tim Hague Vs. Todd Duffee (heavyweight) – No way I’m banking against the Canadian who had an impressive victory last time out. Duffee is undefeated in only 4 fights, but his last victory was over Assuerio Silva who is no slouch. I’m still picking Hague.

Nick Catone Vs. Mark Munoz (middleweight) – Looks like Munoz is looking to drop a weight class. Catone has lost to Tim Credeur while Munoz got bulldozed by Matt Hamill. What effect will the weight cut have on Munoz? The answer to that will probably determine the winner. I’ll bet on Munoz.

Marcus Aurelio Vs. Evan Dunham (lightweight) – Aurelio has gotten lots of praise coming into the UFC, but he’s lost against all the top guys he’s faced (Guida, Franca, Tyson Griffin). Once again, I’m picking the new guy, Dunham, to pull off the upset.