UFC 141 Picks

Alright, quick and dirty. I'm on vacation and thinking hurts my brain.

Brock Lesnar vs Alistair Overeem (heavyweight)

Lesnar has very little chance in this one, I figure. Sure, he may get Overeem down and pound him, but I think it far more likely Overeem will punch Lesnar in the jaw and it'll be over. Overeem has way too much experience to get overwhelmed by Lesnar. I'm picking Overeem.

Nate Diaz vs Donald Cerrone (lightweight)

This could be a great scrap. I see Cerrone taking it though since he's the smarter fighter. A win here ought to put him in the title picture. An upset by Diaz would be huge for him, I think. I'm picking Cerrone.

Jon Fitch vs Johny Hendricks (welterweight)

The long layoff could really hurt Fitch in what ought to be a great fight. I like both of these guys, but Fitch is a machine. Assuming he comes back 100%, I think he gets the better of the very game Hendricks. I'm picking Fitch.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs Alexander Gustafson (light heavyweight)

Every time I count the Janitor out he surprises me. But Gustafson has a promising career ahead of him and this is a good test. I'm picking Gustafson.

Nam Phan vs Jimy Hettes (featherweight)

Jimy who? You might think that, but this guy is actually undefeated and is a submissions machine. Phan is decent but has flaws. He has way more experience but I'm gonna bet he underestimates his opponent and gets submitted. That's my upset special of the night. I'm picking Hettes.

Ross Pearson vs Junior Assuncao (featherweight)

I like Pearson and Asuncao has disappointed me in the past. But this is a featherweight fight. Pearson ought to have the standup advantage but if Assuncao can get this to the ground, he has a very good chance. This is a tough call. I'm gonna pick Assuncao in a bit of an upset.

Anthony Njokuani vs Danny Castillo (lightweight)

I'm getting tired. I'm picking Njokuani.

Dong Hyun Kim vs Sean Pierson (welterweight)

Hate going against the Canadian, but... I'm picking Kim.

Jacob Volkmann vs Efrain Escudero (lightweight)

Escudero has stumbled a bit since winning TUF8, even getting cut from the UFC. He is a replacement for an injured fighter in this one. Volkmann has disappointed me in the past. This is a matchup of wrestlers, but I could see Volkmann getting the submission. I'm picking Volkmann.

Matthew Riddle vs Luis Ramos (welterweight)

Ramos is essentially a nobody, but he has a better record than Riddle. With 3 losses in his last 5 fights, this could be do or die for Riddle in the UFC. I think he dies. I'm picking Ramos.

Manny Gamburyan vs Diego Nunes (featherweight)

Gamburyan lost my respect with that BS with Jeff Cox so I like it when he fights good fighters - it means I can pick against him. I'm picking Nunes.

UFC 139 Results

This was a great card and from what I saw it did not disappoint.

Dan Henderson def. Maurcio Rua (unanimous)
What's a UFC event without controversy? Dan Henderson did very well for the first three rounds and then proceeded to shut it down and get his ass handed to him by Shogun Rua for the next ten minutes. Fortunately for him, the judges gave him 3 out of the 5 rounds and he got the unanimous decision. So where's the controversy? Well, if there was EVER an argument for a 10-8 (or even 10-7) round, Rua's utter dominance of Hendo in round #5 was it. Rua SLAUGHTERED Henderson for five full minutes. Shame on Rua for not finding a way to end it (submission, anyone?) but you HAD to give him 10-8 or better. Not ONE judge gave him the 10-8 margin, though, which would have made all the difference. I had it 47-47 and a draw - a fitting end to a fight that was so evenly matched overall. These guys deserve to go at it again. A win for Hendo was a bit disgraceful, considering how pathetic he looked for the final two rounds. And if he gets a TITLE SHOT after this?! Please. No one tuning in half way through could have possibly imagined the man on the bottom, getting relentlessly pummeled, could have POSSIBLY won that fight. Chalk another on up to bizarre judging. (0-1)

Wanderlei Silva def. Cung Le (TKO 2)
Wow. This was awesome. Silva looked tentative and nervous at first, and hung out on the periphery while Le measured him. But then Silva started letting his shots go and the tide turned quickly. Le has a questionable gas tank and Silva exploited it in the second round. In the end, Silva was just too much and Le was messed up. Great fight between two free swingers. (1-1)

Urijah Faber def. Brian Bowles (sub 2)
Give Faber credit for getting the submission against a tough opponent. Thanks to this, Faber will get YET ANOTHER title shot. Is there a fighter in MMA who gets more credit for wins than Faber? I dunno. Maybe other guys should get a shot once in a while? (1-2)

Martin Kampmann def. Rick Story (split)
Controversy again, in my mind. Story MAY have won round one, but who in their right mind had him winning one of the last two rounds? Kampmann clearly won those two. A split decision does not do Kampmann's win justice. This should have been at least 29-28 across the board. (2-2)

Stephan Bonnar def. Kyle Kingsbury (unanimous)
Bonnar fought smart (but dull) while Kingsbury honestly just did not show up. I thought Kingsbury would have an advantage in the wrestling department, but Bonnar flat-out schooled his less experienced opponent. Once Bonnar got on top, he used his underrated jiujitsu to secure the win. This was a big step back for Kingsbury. (2-3)

Ryan Bader def. Jason Brilz (KO 1)
Quick fight. Bader used his power, clipped Brilz behind the ear and it was all over. Puts Bader back on track. Look for him to get put back on the fast track with a much tougher opponent. (3-3)

Michael McDonald def. Alex Soto (KO 1)
McDonald looked great. He used his stand-up effectively and Soto got KTFO in under one minute. Things are looking up for the youngster. (4-3)

Chris Weidman def. Tom Lawlor (sub 1)
Weidman continues to surprise and look good. Lawlor is no push over, but Weidman seemed to finish him with ease. This kid has lots of potential. (5-3)

Gleison Tibau def. Rafael Dos Anjos (split)
Didn't see it. Fight metrics show Tibau got in more shots and a couple of take downs. (6-3)

Miguel Angel Torres def. Nick Pace (unanimous)
Didn't see it. Looks like it may have been the mismatch I expected. (7-3)

Seth Baczynski def. Matt Brown (sub 2)
This wasn't pretty, but it went the way I thought it would. Brown likes to swing and throw knees inside but he doesn't seem to have the complete game that is needed. He tends to get caught somehow and he did here, once again. Too bad. (8-3)

Danny Castillo def. Shamar Bailey (TKO 1)
Debatable early stoppage - especially with 8 seconds left in the round - but Bailey was pulling the turtle and was warned by the ref to fight back. Castillo pretty much dominated. (9-3)

Not bad!

UFC 139 Picks

I didn't bother making picks for UFC on Fox. It was a pretty crap card aside from the main event and the Henderson-Guida fight, which was awesome. Some people didn't give Dos Santos much of a chance against Velasquez, but it came as no surprise to me that he won. Velasquez had never really had his chin tested, except a bit against Kongo when he got rocked but recovered. I knew that if Dos Santos could stuff the takedowns he'd have a pretty good chance. Turns out he only had to stuff one before getting the big KO.

But now it's on to a real card - UFC 139. Let's get to it.

Dan Henderson vs. Maurcio Rua (light heavyweight)
So Hendo is back in the UFC and still can't seem to settle on a weight class. I think he'd have more success as a middleweight, personally, but if he wants to take on bigger guys, good for him. This is a huge fight for him. If he wins, he's right back in the title picture. If he loses, though, a lot of people will say he has lost it and point to his loss to Jake Shields as proof, despite his more recent victory over previously highly-touted Fedor Emelianenko. Rua is coming off his gimme win over Forrest Griffin (another no-win scenario fight for Griffin to take) and is looking to get back in the title hunt after getting smoked by current champ Jon Bones Jones. Both of these guys have power. Hendo has wrestling going for him, which appears to be a bit of a weakness for Rua. But Rua is smarter, more skilled, and has BJJ on his side. Can Hendo get Rua down? I dunno. I see this as a stand up war. I see Rua getting the decision. I'm picking Rua.

Cung Lee vs Wanderlei Silva (middleweight)
Silva has lost 6 of 8. Normally, that would get you kicked out of the UFC, but the UFC likes keeping legends around. This, again, falls into the category of guys getting fights for who they are not what they are. But Lee is not exactly a top level opponent at this time, so he has a chance. Lee has been away from MMA, pursuing an acting career. Frankly, the only reason we know his name is because he was a big fish in the small Strikeforce pond. For the most part, he has fought guys who couldn't cut it in the UFC. Sure, his record is good, but it's inflated, much like Fedor's. He's flashy and can throw punches and kicks from crazy angles, but can he withstand a Silva berserker attack. Silva isn't exactly known for fighting smart, so it remains to be seen if he can execute a proper gameplan. I could see Lee getting a decision, but Silva getting a KO. I don't like Silva's chances, but I'm gonna pick him anyway. I'm going with Silva.

Brian Bowles vs Urijah Faber (bantamweight)
This could be fight of the night. Talented, relentless guys in a speedy weight class. Faber is the name, but Bowles is the favourite in my mind. Frankly, I think Faber is overrated. Sure, he puts in the effort, but he seems to worry too much about putting on a good show and not enough about winning smart. I'm picking Bowles.

Martin Kampmann vs Rick Story (welterweight)
Another good fight. Both of these guys have done well and were on the rise before getting derailed. On paper, Kampmann is the more talented, well-rounded fighter. Story has shown, though, that he can overcome odds and upset favoured opponents. Still, I think Kampmann will fight smart and get the W. I'm picking Kampmann.

Stephan Bonnar vs Kyle Kingsbury (light heavyweight)
Another terrific match-up. This could be a war. Kingsbury is a beast, but does not necessarily fight smart. Bonnar is a relentless machine who takes punishment and keeps coming. This is not likely to be the prettiest fight of the night, but it's another FOTN candidate. If Kingsbury is smart, this could be a walk in the park - he just needs to take Bonnar down and keep him there. Boxing would be a mistake. I like Bonnar and all, but I'm picking Kingsbury in a disappointingly dull decision.

Ryan Bader vs Jason Brilz (light heavyweight)
How the mighty have fallen. Bader was considered a very strong up-and-comer until he ran into current champ Jon Jones and got slaughtered. Then the got submitted by a very fortunate Tito Ortiz and suddenly he's on the undercard. On paper, this is a mismatch in Bader's favour. He has more skills than Brilz, a better record, and he has beaten guys Brilz has lost to. So, no surprise, I'm picking Bader.

Michael McDonald vs Alex Soto (bantamweight)
Alex Soto is a replacement for Johnny Eduardo and is in tough against the more experienced McDonald. I'm picking McDonald.

Tom Lawlor vs Chris Weidman (middleweight)
Weidman is pretty raw, but has been impressive. Lawlor has talent, but has been upset more than once. Lawlor should have the experience edge, but he's fighting a guy who is also a wrestler, so he can't really rely on his top strength. I'm gonna go with the upset and pick Weidman.

Gleison Tibau vs Rafael Dos Anjos (lightweight)
Tibau is back again. I never know what to make of this guy. Sometimes he looks great, other times he looks awful. Dos Anjos is super talented at BJJ, but Tibau has some skills, too. Tibau is likely better ion the feet, though, which is where this fight will likely remain. Tough call. I'll pick the more experienced Tibau.

Miguel Angel Torres vs Nick Pace (bantamweight)
Speaking of fallen mighties...Holy cow. Torres was a big shot in WEC and a champ they thought would be on top forever. Suddenly he's near the bottom of the undercard? I guess losing 3 of 5 will do that. And how does a guys who is 38-4 get a fight against a guy who is 6-2? I thought they had commissions for this very reason. If Pace wins, I think it'll be a serious upset and perhaps the beginning of the end for Torres' long career. I'm picking Torres.

Matt Brown vs Seth Baczynski (welterweight)
Brown is a likable guy, but to be honest he simply isn't that good. After losing three in a row, he avoided being cut and got a win over John Howard. Baczynski is bigger than Brown and knows submissions - something by which Brown is prone to getting defeated. I'm picking Baczynski.

Shamar Bailey vs Danny Castillo (lightweight)
Bailey is known to TUF fans where he was favoured but did not reach the finals. Castillo does not have Bailey's celebrity, but he does have a more impressive resume, having fought some of the top dogs in the lightweight division. In fact, his only losses are against top guys, with the exception perhaps of Jacob Volkmann to whom he lost 29-28 on all cards. Both are wrestlers, but Castillo is also a striker. I'm gonna pick the upset and take Castillo.

Great card. I hope I get to see it!

UFC 138 Results

Ok, let's check the results...

Mark Munoz def. Chris Leben (TKO 2)
Cut or no cut, you could tell Leben's heart was not in this one. He said afterwards that he just didn't have the mad-on for Munoz like he normally does because he likes Munoz too much. Leben could have continued, surely - Koscheck fought for 4 rounds with a busted orbital bone - but he quit. Based on his comments after the fight, Leben is considering retirement. (1-0)

Renan Barao def. Brad Pickett (sub1)
Pickett was chucking leather, but Barao was more accurate. When he finally clipped Pickett with the big knee, it was just a matter of time before he found a way to finish the fight. Barao looked pretty good. (2-0)

Thiago Alves def. Papy Abedi (sub 1)
Another one where big shots led to a submission. Alves didn't look great but he got the win. Abedi didn't look bad, he just bit off more than he could chew in his UFC debut. (3-0)

Terry Etim def. Edward Faaloloto (sub 1)
Mismatch. Etim was the much better, smarter fighter and won easily. (4-0)

Anthony Perosh def. Cyrille Diabate (sub 2)
Neither one of these guys looked good. Diabate was doing well in the stand up, but once it went to the ground he was lost. (4-1)

John Maguire def. Justin Edwards (unanimous)
Ugly, boring fight. Maguire laid and prayed to victory. Boring as hell. (4-2)

Michihiro Omigawa def. Jason Young (unanimous)
Another boring fight dominated by wrestling and position. Omigawa did little, but Young did less. (4-3)

Phil De Vries def. Rob Broughton (unanimous)
Missed most of this one, but De Vries looked dominant. (5-3)

Che Mills def. Chris Cope (TKO 1)
Mills looked great against an admittedly mediocre Cope. We will see more of Mills. (6-3)

Chris Cariaso def. Vaughan Lee (split)
Didn't see it. (7-3)

Not bad.

UFC 138 Picks

Coming very quickly on the heels of UFC 137 and just before the UFC makes its big splash on network TV comes this forgotten PPV. Except it really isn't a PPV because it's airing for free over here - dunno if the English are being hosed for this Birmingham-based event. Consider that Chris Leben and Mark Munoz are the main event and it gives you some idea of how ugly this little stepchild is. Anyhow, let's get to the picks.

Chris Leben vs Mark Munoz (middleweight)
Both of these guys show some promise but are frustratingly inconsistent. Leben has a great chin and can throw bombs, but tends to lose the big fights. In fact, he's coming off a big loss to Brian Stann - a fight that propelled Stann into a #1 contenders fight - followed by an impressive and quick win over aging vet Wanderlei Silva. Munoz is a wrestler with power who is perhaps bets known for getting KTFO by Matt Hamill back in 2009. Turns out that that KO is one of only two losses on his resume, though, so he's doing pretty well. I could see Munoz taking Leben down and getting the decision, though this is scheduled to go five rounds (the first non-title five rounder in UFC history). Can Munoz really avoid standing a trading with Leben for five rounds? If they trade, who comes out on top? Do either of these guys have the gas tank to go five rounds? See, that's where the difference lies. I think Munoz can handle a longer fight, while Leben tends to gas. If Munoz fights smart and takes Leben down, he stands an even better chance of wearing out the Crippler. I'm taking Munoz.

Brad Pickett vs Renan Barao (bantamweight)
Ok, bad sign: I don't recognize either of these guys and it's the co-main event. Sure, they're bantamweights, but... Pickett is a veteran with a good record. Barao has little UFC experience but is undefeated in 26 straight! That's insane, even if he is fighting meatheads. Both claim to have BJJ skills, but something tells me Barao's is a bit more legit. Pickett will have the stand-up advantage, one would think, but Barao has a few KO's himself. Pickett seems like the wise choice, but I'm gonna go with another upset and pick Barao.

Thiago Alves vs Papy Abedi (welterweight)
I guess Alves has fallen on hard times - never heard of his opponent. Abedi may have a perfect 8-0 record, but he doesn't have a single name on his resume. I just can't pick him even though Alves is struggling. I'm picking Alves.

Terry Etim vs Edward Faaloloto (lightweight)
I'm not sure what Faaloloto is doing in the UFC or why he is fighting a guy like Etim. Etim ought to wipe the floor with this guy and send him packing. Faaloloto winning would certainly be the upset of the night. I'm picking Etim.

Cyrille Diabate vs Anthony Perosh (light heavyweight)
Perosh doesn't look like much, but he ain't bad. Diabate shows promise when he's aggressive. Perosh has a habit of getting KO'd against bangers and that's Diabate's style. I'm picking Diabate.

John Maguire vs Justin Edwards (welterweight)
Tough call. I know very little about Maguire who is making his UFC debut other than he has been a champ in other promotions but has fought a bunch of nobodys. He has a good record, though. Edwards is relatively new to the game but is doing well at 7-1. He has had a harder time against the top competition since graduating to the UFC, but that's one step further than Maguire. Dunno if it's an upset, but I'll pick Edwards.

Michihiro Omigawa vs Jason Young (featherweight)
Neither of these guys is impressive. Omigawa loses lots of decisions and Young is susceptible to submissions. Omigawa has more experience, but a lower winning percentage. He can't seem to beat anyone who has competed in the UFC. I'll pick the young guy - Young.

Rob Broughton vs Phil De Vries (heavyweight)
I like Broughton but De Vries looks a bit scary for a heavyweight. He's British but seems to have sick submissions skills. WTF is a "brabo choke"? (oh - looks like an anaconda choke) I'm gonan go with the dark horse again and pick De Vries.

Chris Cope vs Che Mills (welterweight)
Cope did alright on TUF while Mills is a nobody. This card is stacked with them. Some eagle-eyed folk might recognize Mills from TUF US vs UK where he lost an elimination fight on the debut episode and never got into the house. He lost to eventual winner James Wilkes, though, so perhaps that bodes well. He actually had Wilkes on his back, but got caught in a leg lock. Since then, he has done alright. I predict this'll be a free swinging affair, but I like Mills' chances. I'm picking Mills.

Chris Cariaso vs Vaughan Lee (bantamweight)
Neither of these guys seems all that impressive. Go figure on this card. I'll pick the guy with experience - Cariaso.

Man, this card is UGLY. Let's hope it's a good show.

UFC 137 Results

Missed almost all of this event, catching only the end of the Mitrione/Kongo snoozefest and the main event. I catch the Sportsnet prelims, though.

Nick Diaz def. BJ Penn (unanimous)
Penn looked ok in the first round, but wilted as he is apt to doing and Diaz pummeled him for the next two rounds. Both looked pretty messed up afterwards, but Diaz clearly earned the nod. As a bonus for shooting his mouth off, Diaz gets a title shot against GSP. Makes sense, right? I didn't think so, either. But see, this is marketing for you. A GSP/Diaz fight will garner more PPV buys than GSP/Condit. But is that the way the UFC should be conducting business? Shouldn't the top contender get the shot every time? Is Diaz the top contender? Dana White says Condit stepped aside, but I sense that might not be 100% accurate. Time will tell, I guess. (1-0)

Cheick Kongo def. Matt Mitrione (unanimous)
Seems this was boring as hell. All I saw was the third round where Kongo laid and prayed. Woopie. Seems Kongo didn't bring the heat. Surprised? Me neither. I was hoping Mitrione woudl score the upset, but it wasn't to be. Another boring win for Kongo. (1-1)

Roy Nelson def. Mirko Filipovic (TKO 3)
Like Penn, Cro Cop may be done. Let's hope so. He has nothing left in the tank. That much is obvious. He can't deal with the cage or his age. (2-1)

Scott Jorgensen def. Jeff Curran (unanimous)
Looks like Jorgensen did well. (3-1)

Hatsu Hioki def. George Roop (split)
Controversial. Came down to the first round. Roop did well in the stand-up, but got taken down hard. Guess two of the judges saw that as more significant. (4-1)

Donald Cerrone def. Dennis Siver (TKO 1)
Boy did Cerrone look good. I'm stunned he put Siver on the mat with power, but he did and then choked him out as I expected. (4-1)

Bart Palaszewski def. Tyson Griffin (TKO 1)
Griffin missed weight. By a lot. He was sick, apparently, and let's hope so 'cause this looked bad. I bet he'll get cut. He no-showed on this one. (5-1)

Brandon Vera def. Eliot Marshall (unanimous)
Neither of these guys looked all that impressive, but Vera certainly earned the nod. He almost had his arm broken in the process, as Marshall caught him in a late arm bar. I guess Vera will stick around a while longer. (6-1)

Ramsey Nijem def. Dan Downes (unanimous)
Didn't see it. (6-2)

Francis Carmont def. Chris Camozzi (unanimous)
Good start for Canadian? (7-2)

Clifford Starks def. Dustin Jacoby (unanimous)
Didn't see it. (7-3)

Hey 7-3 is not bad.

UFC 137 Picks

I'm exhausted for some bizarre reason and not thinking straight, but wanted to get my picks in for tomorrow's event out of principle. If I get half of these right it'll be a miracle.

BJ Penn vs Nick Diaz (welterweight)
Penn back at welterweight, talking title run. As if he deserves to face GSP after losing to him twice already, having lost his last two fights at a lower weight class and his only win since his return to welterweight was against a guy well past his prime who has not beaten a decent opponent in over 5 years. Right. Then there's Nick Diaz, who has been lighting them up since he was rejected by the UFC and moved to Strikeforce.But let;s face it: he hasn't beaten anyone of calibre in over 6 years! Before that, he lost to Joe Riggs, Sean Sherk and Diego Sanchez, who were decent back then, but haven't come close to the welterweight title. So, who is this new Diaz? Is he the real deal or just smoke and mirrors, created out of the dust of a clearly inferior organization? Well, Penn makes for a pretty good test, I guess. If he beats Penn cleanly, it means he's for real. Does it mean he should get a title shot? Hells f***ing no, but the UFC will give him one anyway. I'm not sure who to cheer for 'cause I don't think either of these guys deserves a title shot as a result. I think that if Penn wins, though, the UFC will have a harder time selling a GSP match-up which means MAYBE it won't happen. So that's reason enough to cheer for Penn I guess. This is a very even match-up, with both guys possessing BJJ skills and good stand-up. It may come down to cardio, in which case Diaz wins. I may pull for Penn to win, but my head just doesn't see it happening. I think Diaz will use his jab and eke out a decision.

Cheick Kongo vs Matt Mitrione (heavyweight)
Another good match-up. Big guys who like to strike. Kongo has WAY more experience and that may make the difference. Mitrione has surprised me with his resilience and his ability to get the W, though, and he has yet to get knocked down decisively. I'm gonan go with the upset and pick Mitrione.

Mirko Filipovic vs Roy Nelson (heavyweight)
This one is another intriguiing match-up. Cro Cop is well past his prime and is often dwarfed in the heavyweight division. But this time he's fighting a guy who is actually shorter, though he weights about 40 pounds more. This fight will prove once and for all if Cro Cop has anything left. Nelson will be a big, fat target. If Cro Cop can't head kick him, then that's it for the former tough guy. Nelson's best chance of winning this fight is to get Cro Cop to the ground and use his bulk to cripple his opponent while raining down some ground and pound. I actually think that'll happen. I just can't bet on Cro Cop these days. I'm picking Nelson.

Scott Jorgensen vs Jeff Curran (bantamweight)
Jorgensen is a top level guy while Curran is a vet with lots of experience. Unfortunately for him, most of the recent stuff isn't all that good. I'm picking Jorgensen.

Hatsu Hioki vs George Roop (featherweight)
The UFC really needs to update it's fighter profiles with some pictures. Roop has been around for a while, making an appearance on TUF and having mixed results since. Hioki has a very good record, but none of it in the UFC. I don't normally like to pick Japanese fighters making their UFC debuts, but his record is swaying me. I like Roop and he should have a good reach advantage, but I'm gonna pick the dark horse and go with Hioki.

Dennis Siver vs Donald Cerrone (lightweight)
This could be a very good fight. Siver is on the fringe of the elite and has impressed at times, while Cerrone is a top dog from WEC looking to make a name for himself in the UFC. The key for Cerrone is getting this fight to the ground where he should have the edge, despite Siver's credentials. I'm picking Cerrone.

Tyson Griffin vs Bart Palaszewski (lightweight)
Griffin is a UFC veteran while Bart is making his UFC debut after decent success in WEC. Bart has power on his side, while Griffin will have the wrestling advantage and may be able to get a decision. I like to cheer for a finish, so I'll go with Palaszewski.

Brandon Vera vs Eliot Marshall (light heavyweight)
Is this a loser-goes-home match? Maybe. After making a big splash. Vera has seriously disappointed in recent fights, granted against top guys. Marshall has a decent record, but has not exactly lit the UFC on fire and is coming off a loss. If Vera loses he definitely goes home unless he's sleeping with a UFC executive. A win would likely keep Marshall around for at least another fight. Vera ought to win this fight easily, but it all depends on his heart. I can't believe Vera could have fallen THIS far. I'm picking Vera.

Ramsey Nijem vs Dan Downes (lightweight)
Nijem did fairly well on TUF. Never heard of Downes but he has a better record and can knock guys out - something Nijem is familiar with following his TUF finale loss. I like Nijem, but I like Downes to win this fight.

Chris Camozzi vs Francis Carmont (middleweight)
Camozzi is a TUF competitor who has a decent record but no big wins. Carmont is a newcomer who trains with GSP and finishes fights fast one way or the other. I'm gonan pick the dark horse once again and go with Carmont for fun.

Dustin Jacoby vs Clifford Starks (middleweight)
Newcomers, I guess. This could be fun, though, as both guys are undefeated and have perfect records with lots of KO/TKOs. I'm gonna go with the bigger guy - Jacoby.