Diego Sanchez vs Martin Kampmann (welterweight)
There's a lot on the line in the match-up. Two guys who have been highly touted in the past but who are not on the way up and can't seem to win the big fights to get into title contendership. Sure, Sanchez fought for the title, but that was at lightweight where he was a monster. He got beaten up badly by BJ Penn, and yet he has decided to return to welterweight - a bad decision if you ask me. Earlier, he had lost big welterweight fights to Josh Koshcheck (did he even show up?) and Jon Fitch (split decision), and lost his return to welterweight against John Hathaway (unanimous decision). If he were a lightweight, he'd be a top 5 guy. At welterweight, he probably isn't top ten. That could change if he can upset Kampmann who is another dangerous guy who is snake-bitten when it comes to big fights. He lost spectacularly to Paul Daley, a win that earned Daley a #1 contenders bought against Josh Koshcheck. Then, after rebounding with a pair of victories, he lost a controversial split decision to Jake Shields - a win that earned Shields a title shot. If Kampmann loses, it'll be another big step backwards when he seems to be on the cusp of a title fight. If Sanchez loses, I think he'd have to consider a return to lightweight, especially now that Penn is not the champ and seems to be on the verge of retirement. Sanchez's best hopes of a title are at lightweight. In this fight, I'm picking Kampmann.
CB Dollaway vs Mark Munoz (middleweight)
Munoz is kind of a small middleweight - at least in stature. He has size around his waist. He also has heavy hands. Dollaway, on the other hand, is a talented guy with a brain problem - he just does not have the right attitude and does not fight smart, it seems. He is good at submissions, though, and can finish guys off quick. Munoz is a BJJ guy, though, so Dollaway won't be able to take advantage of his opponent's ignorance in this department. Though their records are similar, Munoz has faced tougher opposition. I could see Munoz getting a TKO, or Dollaway getting a decision. Will it go the distance? Let's hope not. I'll pick Munoz.
Alessio Sakara vs Chris Weidman (middleweight)
Weidman comes in as an injury replacement. He is only 4-0 so this is a BIG step up. Sakara is ok, but not great. He seems to have problems with power punchers (with the exception of James Irvin) and Weidman seems to fit the bill. Sakara has fought some tough opposition, but no one in the top ten. What do you say we go for the massive upset in this one and pick Weidman?
Brian Bowles vs Damacio Page (bantamweight)
Don't know much about these WEC guys, other than Bowles was champion at one point. Strangely, this is a rematch of a fight Bowles won easily in the first round. So why fight again? Dunno. Doesn't seem as though Page has earned it. I'm picking Bowles.
Joe Stevenson vs Danny Castillo (lightweight)
How is it that Joe Daddy still has a job with the UFC? Only 3 wins in his last 8 fights and two straight losses. Surely this is yet another "last chance". It might work out for him, though, as he fights a former WEC guy who will no doubt be a bit intimidated by the big show (though this is only a Fight Night Live). Styles match up well, too, as both are wrestlers who like to stand and fight. Castillo seems to have better KO power, but Stevenson is hard to take out. I like Stevenson in this one.
Steve Cantwell vs Cyrille Diabate (light heavyweight)
This could be fun. Diabate is a tall guy who can finish guys off fast, but he seems to lack aggressiveness - he relies on his opponents making a mistake. He looked great in his debut, awful in his sophomore fight. I'm gonna pick Diabate in this one and hope he picks up his game.
Thiago Tavares vs Shane Roller (lightweight)
Another UFC versus WEC match-up. Roller has a rep, but this is still a step up. Tavares' three losses were all Fight of the Night and he has faced tougher competition. Roller has faced the best of the WEC with mixed success. Roller is very dangerous, though, and can finish guys fast. Both like submissions, but Roller is a wrestler while Tavares is a BJJ guy. That should mean Roller will decide where this fight takes place. On the feet, Roller seems more dangerous. Dunno if it's an upset, but I'll pick Roller.
Takeya Mizugaki vs Reuben Duran (bantamweight)
Who? Hm... Ok, Mizugaki has WEC experience, but with mixed results. Duran doesn't even have a Wikipedia page. When in doubt, go with the known guy. But... Mizugaki goes to decision way too often. Duran is a finisher. I'll pick Duran. Underdog again!
Rob Kimmons vs Dongi Yang (middleweight)
Well, I've heard of Kimmons... He has a decent record but zero significant wins. Yang has decent power, it seems, but lost to Chris Camozzi in his UFC debut. Not good. Still, in the night of upsets, I'll pick Yang.
Rousimar Palhares vs Dave Branch (middleweight)
Palhares gets no respect. This guy is INSANELY dangerous on the ground. Branch is a bigger guy and is also a BJJ black belt. But is he on the same level as Palhares? I doubt it. Look for Branch to keep it standing and hope for a decision. He should have a significant reach advantage. Still, I'll pick Palhares.
Igor Pokrajac vs Todd Brown (light heavyweight)
Pokrajac has one win in 4 UFC fights yet still has a job. Brown is 15-2 but no significant fights except a loss in his UFC debut. Who to pick....? Toss up. I'll go with the fitter looking Pokrajac.
Ok, maybe it isn't such a great card. Let's hope it surprises us!
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