UFC 128 Picks

Alright, quick and dirty. I'm gonna miss this event, too. Damn social life!

Mauricio Rua vs Jon Jones (light heavyweight)
This is a funny match-up to me 'cause it features two guys who shouldn't be where they are. Rua was gifted a title shot (two, actually!) against Machida, a guy who, in turn, had not beaten any top 10 fighters to get HIS title shot (Silva was on the cusp). Sure, he won the belt against Rashad Evans, the last real top ten contender, but anyone can win on any night in this sport. Rua got his shot after getting schooled by Forrest Griffin, beating a geriatric Mark Coleman (who he had previously lost to) and then a way-past his-prime Chuck Liddell (who Dana White promptly tried to retire). That's pathetic. Jones is getting his shot because Rashad is injured, they need a last minute replacement, and all the other top dogs are busy or on medical suspension. Sure, he looks pretty good, but he hasn't faced any established top ten guys. Bader? Bader wasn't established either! This shot should have gone to Griffin, Rampage, Couture, Anderson Silva, Thiago Silva or even Machida - theoretically - before Jones got a shot. But this makes for a sexy fight and the UFC is all about making sexy fights for the almighty PPVs. If Jones wins, though, the belt once again spins into chaos with no true champion in sight. Rua has a change of giving the division some stability if he can beat a couple of true contenders, but that all goes out the window if the young buck can pull it off. Something tells me a smart vet could find a hole in Jones' game and exploit it. I wouldn't bet too much on him retaining the belt for long if he wins. And on we merrily go. As for my pick, well, I like Rua's smarts, but he's a stand and bang guy. Jones can stand and bang and he's faster. And he's a wrestler. Rua didn't do so well against Griffin in that department. Can Rus submit Jones? Dunno about that. Rua is by FAR the toughest opponent Jones has faced and is in a different league than Matyushenko, Bonnar and Vera. Can Rua reach Jones? How good is Jones' chin? These questions are what make this fight intriguing. I'm not that impressed with Rua, so I'm gonna go with the challenger in this one: Jones.

Urijah Faber vs Eddie Wineland (bantamweight)
Faber is the golden child, but he hasn't impressed me that much. Lately he seems to be more flash than substance. He's the former WEC featherweight champ and is now facing a former WEC bantamweight champ in the weight class. Wineland is obviously decent, but is susceptible to submissions. Both fighters are making their UFC debuts, though the spotlight is nothing new for Faber. I'll pick Faber.

Jim Miller vs Kamal Shalorus (lightweight)
If Miller wins, look for him to be the next lightweight title challenger (after Aldo, of course). He has the wins under his belt, having only lost to the champ and the #1 contender. Miller has twice the resume Shalorus has. I'm picking Miller.

Nate Marquardt vs Dan Miller (middleweight)
Marquardt is very good, but not "Great" as his nickname suggests. He needs to pull off some clutch wins. Still, he would represent a big notch in Miller's belt, seeing as MIller can't seem to beat anyone of any significant calibre. He has losses to Bisping, Maia and Sonnen and has only beaten mid-carders. Should be a decent fight, but I'll pick Marquardt.

Mirko Filipovic vs Brendan Schaub (heavyweight)
Can't Cro Cop make light heavy? Why does he insist on fighting at heavyweight where he is significantly outsized? If the UFC had a 205-220 division, he might be ok, but against 6'4" 240 Schaub? I dunno. Cro Cop has a shot if Schaub stands and bangs, which is likely. Against a wrestler, Cro Cop would be dead meat. I think a Cro Cop/Couture fight might be fun, but that's for another day. Is Cro Cop being fed to Schaub as a notch in his belt? Maybe. Is it gonna happen? Depends on Schaub's strategy. I'll pick Schaub.

Luiz Cane vs Eliot Marshall (light heavyweight)
Both of these guys have shown promise but have not quite delivered or have suffered big setbacks. Cane is coming off two losses, but against guys with power. Marshall is back on a slow rise after a disappointing loss to Matyushenko. Still, he hasn't exactly faced top dogs. Marshall's skills are his BJJ, but Cane is a black belt himself. The different here lies in Cane's power. I could see him getting the TKO. I'm picking Cane.

Edson Barboza vs Anthony Njokuani (lightweight)
...Who? Njokuani has some significant wins, and has only lost to top dogs. Barboza is undefeated and has power, but no significant opponents yet. Barboza has more belts and is more well-rounded. Njokuani is susceptible to submissions. I'll pick Barboza.

Ricardo Almeida vs Mike Pyle (welterweight)
Almeida is one of those guys who drives me nuts. You think he's on the cusp and then he lays an egg, like he did against Matt Hughes. That loss really killed his buzz. Pyle has lots of submissions, but, on paper, Almeida is the more dangerous BJJ guy. Almeida's wrestling skills may serve him well here. I'll pick Almeida by decision.

Kurt Pellegrino vs Gleison Tibau (lightweight)
This could be a good fight. They have similar styles, similar success in the octagon. I think Tibau has been short-changed at times. Pellegrino is a warrior. Tough call. I'm gonna pick Tibau.

Joseph Benavidez vs Ian Loveland (bantamweight)
The little boys again. I've heard of Benavidez, not so much Loveland. Benavidez is a small guy but has lots of heart and more prestige than Loveland. Loveland is coming off 7 straight wins after going 7-7 before that. No names in there, from what I can tell. I'm not sure how he'll do it, but I'll pick Benavidez.

Erik Koch vs Raphael Assuncao (featherweight)
Koch has been bounced around a bit, with opponents dropping out or switching fights. He looks tough, though and he's significantly bigger than Assuncao. Still, Assuncao should be the favourite as he has more prime time experience. Not a lot of info on Koch, but still he seems to have a record of finishing guys off quick, while Assuncao goes to decision these days. I'll pick Koch.

Nick Catone vs Constantinos Philippou (middleweight)
Isn't Nick Catone from N'Sync or something? He has mixed success in the UFC, losing to names, beating nobodies. Philippou is a ROC guy with a decent record and some quick KOs. Screw it: I'll pick Philippou for fun.

Who you got?