UFC 116 Picks

I can’t believe I might actually miss this one… Biggest heavyweight fight ever.

Brock Lesnar vs Shane Carwin (heavyweight)

This is a very tough call. See, these guys are both monsters and it may depend on two things: can Lesnar get Carwin down, and can Carwin catch Lesnar with a solid punch. We haven’t seen Lesnar get caught with a solid shot yet so we have no idea what his chin is like. Carwin, on the other hand, hasn’t had his gas tank tested – so if Lesnar can smother him into the second round… Both of these guys are relatively untested, which makes predicting the outcome that much more difficult. In the end, though, I think Carwin will clock Lesnar but I’m pulling for Lesnar anyway.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs Chris Leben (middleweight)

Chris Leben as the co-main event? And this isn’t a TUF season finale or an Ultimate Fight Night Live? What gives? Well, that’s what happens when Leben subs in for Wanderlei Silva. I don’t know if this fight will still be second to last, but it certainly has lost a good amount of hype. Yoshihiro Akiyama has beaten Denis Kang and Alan Belcher, no slouches in the division. He’s 13-1, and that lone loss came in his second pro fight against a guy who was almost twice his size. Akiyama has good stand up, but his best bet here is to get Leben to the ground and use his mat skills to submit the man with the granite chin. I’ll pick Akiyama.

Chris Lytle vs Matt Brown (welterweight)

I quite like Matt Brown and this is sure to be an entertaining fight as long as it’s on the feet, but this is a poor match-up for Brown. Lytle is also a stand-up fighter, but has a very good ground game. I don’t see Brown knocking out Lytle, and I can see Lytle fighting smart and getting the decision or submission. I’ll pick Lytle.

Krzysztof Soszynski vs Stephan Bonnar (light heavyweight)

The rematch. Maybe it was a head butt last time out, so this fight was required before the Polish Experiment could claim the next rung up the ladder. I’m pulling for the adopted Canadian, but Bonnar may have more to fight for. As we’ve seen recently with Keith Jardine, no one is immune from getting cut by the UFC, and although Dana White has called both Bonnar and Forrest Griffin his children, Bonnar has lost his last three fights and five of his last seven (granted, three against former or future champs). Bonnar simply isn’t improving his game the way his contemporaries (like Griffin) have. He’s firmly established as a gatekeeper: if you can’t beat him, you probably don’t deserve to stick around. Krzysztof, on the other hand, has looked great since coming onto the set of the the Ultimate Fighter, but needs to fight smarter if he wants to move up. I’m picking Soszynski.

George Sotiropoulos vs Kurt Pellegrino (lightweight)

Could be fight of the night. Both are talented, with Sotiropoulos as the up-and-comer and Pellegrino as the established vet looking to climb the ladder before it’s all over. This is a big fight for George, as a win would move him into the upper echelons of the weight division. I’m pulling for Sotiropoulos.

Brendan Schaub vs Chris Tuchscherer (heavyweight)

Expect a slugfest. The UFC seems to want big things out of Schaub and this may be a bit of a stepping stone for him, especially if Tuchscherer lays an egg like he did against Tim Hague. But it won’t be easy. Schaub has great power and none of his fights have gone beyond the first round. I’ll pick Schaub.

Seth Petruzelli vs Ricardo Romero (light heavyweight)

Is it a coincidence that as Kimbo leaves the UFC, the Kimboslayer returns? The man who single-handedly brought down Elite XC returns to the UFC where he pretty much bombed three years ago, in the hopes of making the best of a second chance. The UFC has arguably spoon fed him a win by matching him up against a guy who has only fought in the Ring of Combat organization and has no big name wins – and no photo on the UFC website. He does have an impressive record, though (10-1) with his lone loss a DQ for an illegal soccer kick. Ouch! You know what? I’ll pick the new guy – Romero.

Kendall Grove vs Goran Reljic (middleweight)

Grove is another fighter with nine lives. He has looked impressive at times, but he has a bit of a glass jaw, which has been exposed a number of times in spectacular fashion. He has lost four of his last seven, but I don’t expect him to get cut, even if he loses. Goran Reljic has a good record and a win over Wilson Gouveia, but he has alos lost to CB effing Dollaway, for Pete’s sake. Both have ground skills, but Reljic does have KO power. I’ll pick Reljic.

Gerald Harris vs Dave Branch (middleweight)

Who? Harris was apparently on TUF, but I don’t remember him at all. And I guess I missed his two previous UFC fights. Branch is 6-0, so one assumes he’s no pushover. I’ll take the guy with UFC experience and KO power, though. I’m picking Harris.

Daniel Roberts vs Forrest Petz (welterweight)

Roberts has a good record with a load of submission wins, including two by strikes. Petz has a load of experience including five UFC fights a while back (2-3). Roberts is a submission king and Petz has a habit of losing by submission. I’ll pick Roberts.

Jon Madsen vs Karlos Vemola (heavyweight)

Madsen, a former TUF competitor, is significantly heavier than the somewhat unknown Vemola. Vemola looks like a beast on paper, though, amassing a perfect 7-0 record, all ending in the first round by TKO or rear naked choke (meaning the opponent essentially turtled at some point). Granted, all of those fights took place in the UK, away from the bright UFC lights. Will the big stage scare the big man? I’m picking Vemola.