UFC 115 Picks

Unfortunately, I'm likely to miss this one, so my post-fight analysis may be lacking, but I'm still gonna put in some picks.

Chuck Liddell vs Rich Franklin (light heavyweight)
This is a tough fight. It’s the end of the line for one of these two fighters. There’s very little upside. If Franklin wins, he beat the semi-retired Liddell and it does little to move him up the 205 ladder. If Chuck wins, he beat a guy who really hasn’t established himself as a light heavyweight so it probably doesn’t get him in title contention quickly enough to reclaim the belt before retirement claims him. It would also be devastating for Franklin’s career. His best hope after that would be to drop back down to 185 and hope Anderson Silva moves up to 205. This fight ends in one of two ways: Liddell KO or Franklin by decision. Any other way, and I’d be pretty shocked. Liddell’s style is poorly suited to getting enough points to score a decision and Franklin rarely KOs an opponent. Franklin managed to survive against the berserker attack of Wanderlei Silva, but Liddell is much more precise, patient striker. Can Liddell catch Franklin within 15 minutes? Tough call. Franklin doesn’t have the best chin, so one big shot might be enough. It’s 50/50 in my book, but I’ll pick…Liddell for fun (just 'cause if he loses, it's over).

Mirko Cro Cop Filipovic vs Pat Barry (heavyweight)
Cro Cop’s heart has seemingly disappeared, but for once he’s fighting a guy who is smaller than he is – that means he has a chance. But Barry has insane power. This ought to be fun. I’ll pick Barry.

Paulo Thiago vs Martin Kampmann (welterweight)
Could be Fight of the Night. These guys are smart, skilled and usually put on a good show. Thiago’s only loss is to Jon Fitch by decision – no shame there. He KO’d Koscheck who is now getting a title fight (how do you figure?). Kampmann also has a stellar record. I’m gonna pick Thiago.

Ben Rothwell vs Gilbert Yvel (heavyweight)
A battle of two underachievers. Rothwell was an IFL champ but has lost to Cain Velasquez in his UFC debut and Andrei Arlovski not long before that. Yvel has a decent record, but has fought lots of guys who were smaller than him (and lost some). He looked like garbage against Junior Dos Santos. These guys need to make an impression if they wanna stick around in the UFC. Look for the KO and look for Rothwell to get it.

Carlos Condit vs Rory MacDonald (welterweight)
Condit was a big deal in the WEC. So far, I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid. He represents a massive step up for MacDonald, though. Both guys have decent records and lots of submission victories. I hate to go against the Canadian, but I bet Condit the veteran finds a way to stay clamer and secure the submission. I’m picking Condit.

Tyson Griffin vs Evan Dunham (lightweight)
Both of these guys have a wrestling background, but Dunham has jiu jitsu to boot. They both have great records with impressive victories, but Dunham is undefeated and finishes fights whereas Griffin goes to a decision far too often. I’m picking Dunham.

Mac Danzig vs Matt Wiman (lightweight)
Danzig has some horseshoes up his butt to still be around in the UFC. But he’s a TUF darling, so it shouldn’t be that much of a surprise, I guess. Wiman was on the “TUF for losers” season, and came out looking pretty good, but he, too, is in danger of getting cut if he doesn’t get his act together. Both have lost to Jim Miller, with some nice wins and tough losses thrown in. I don’t know if Wiman can pull it off, but I’ll pulling for him ‘cause I’m sick of Danzig. I got Wiman.

David Loiseau vs Mario Miranda (middleweight)
I’m gonna be pulling for Loiseau, but let’s see if he has a chance. Miranda has a great record with a couple of notable wins but nothing too special. Loiseau has been doing well outside of the UFC but hasn’t had much success in the octagon lately. This is his big chance to make a splash in front of a partisan Canadian crowd. Miranda is a wrestler and jiu jitsu guy which is very dangerous and could mean a decision loss for Loiseau. Still, like I said, I’m pulling for him, so I got Loiseau.

James Wilks vs Peter Sobotta (welterweight)
Both have submissions skills but Sobotta also has power. Wilks seems slightly larger but that likely won’t be much of a factor. This could turn into a wrestling match, in which case Wilks’ muay thai could come into play. I’m gonna pick Wilks.

Ricardo Funch vs Claude Patrick (welterweight)
And now the silly picks. I don’t know much about either of these two. They have decent records but Patrick has loads of submissions. I’ll pick the Canadian and go with Patrick.

Mike Pyle vs Jesse Lennox (welterweight)
Despite a nice record, Pyle has lost just about every big fight he’s been in. Sure, he beat Jon Fitch, but that was in Fitch’s first pro fight and it was at 205 lbs. Of course Pyle’s first fight was against Rampage Jackson! Lennox, meanwhile has had only one semi-meaningful fight, losing to Rick Story. I’m picking the more experienced Pyle.

Could be a fun event, even though there aren't too many big names attached.