UFC 116 Picks

I can’t believe I might actually miss this one… Biggest heavyweight fight ever.

Brock Lesnar vs Shane Carwin (heavyweight)

This is a very tough call. See, these guys are both monsters and it may depend on two things: can Lesnar get Carwin down, and can Carwin catch Lesnar with a solid punch. We haven’t seen Lesnar get caught with a solid shot yet so we have no idea what his chin is like. Carwin, on the other hand, hasn’t had his gas tank tested – so if Lesnar can smother him into the second round… Both of these guys are relatively untested, which makes predicting the outcome that much more difficult. In the end, though, I think Carwin will clock Lesnar but I’m pulling for Lesnar anyway.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs Chris Leben (middleweight)

Chris Leben as the co-main event? And this isn’t a TUF season finale or an Ultimate Fight Night Live? What gives? Well, that’s what happens when Leben subs in for Wanderlei Silva. I don’t know if this fight will still be second to last, but it certainly has lost a good amount of hype. Yoshihiro Akiyama has beaten Denis Kang and Alan Belcher, no slouches in the division. He’s 13-1, and that lone loss came in his second pro fight against a guy who was almost twice his size. Akiyama has good stand up, but his best bet here is to get Leben to the ground and use his mat skills to submit the man with the granite chin. I’ll pick Akiyama.

Chris Lytle vs Matt Brown (welterweight)

I quite like Matt Brown and this is sure to be an entertaining fight as long as it’s on the feet, but this is a poor match-up for Brown. Lytle is also a stand-up fighter, but has a very good ground game. I don’t see Brown knocking out Lytle, and I can see Lytle fighting smart and getting the decision or submission. I’ll pick Lytle.

Krzysztof Soszynski vs Stephan Bonnar (light heavyweight)

The rematch. Maybe it was a head butt last time out, so this fight was required before the Polish Experiment could claim the next rung up the ladder. I’m pulling for the adopted Canadian, but Bonnar may have more to fight for. As we’ve seen recently with Keith Jardine, no one is immune from getting cut by the UFC, and although Dana White has called both Bonnar and Forrest Griffin his children, Bonnar has lost his last three fights and five of his last seven (granted, three against former or future champs). Bonnar simply isn’t improving his game the way his contemporaries (like Griffin) have. He’s firmly established as a gatekeeper: if you can’t beat him, you probably don’t deserve to stick around. Krzysztof, on the other hand, has looked great since coming onto the set of the the Ultimate Fighter, but needs to fight smarter if he wants to move up. I’m picking Soszynski.

George Sotiropoulos vs Kurt Pellegrino (lightweight)

Could be fight of the night. Both are talented, with Sotiropoulos as the up-and-comer and Pellegrino as the established vet looking to climb the ladder before it’s all over. This is a big fight for George, as a win would move him into the upper echelons of the weight division. I’m pulling for Sotiropoulos.

Brendan Schaub vs Chris Tuchscherer (heavyweight)

Expect a slugfest. The UFC seems to want big things out of Schaub and this may be a bit of a stepping stone for him, especially if Tuchscherer lays an egg like he did against Tim Hague. But it won’t be easy. Schaub has great power and none of his fights have gone beyond the first round. I’ll pick Schaub.

Seth Petruzelli vs Ricardo Romero (light heavyweight)

Is it a coincidence that as Kimbo leaves the UFC, the Kimboslayer returns? The man who single-handedly brought down Elite XC returns to the UFC where he pretty much bombed three years ago, in the hopes of making the best of a second chance. The UFC has arguably spoon fed him a win by matching him up against a guy who has only fought in the Ring of Combat organization and has no big name wins – and no photo on the UFC website. He does have an impressive record, though (10-1) with his lone loss a DQ for an illegal soccer kick. Ouch! You know what? I’ll pick the new guy – Romero.

Kendall Grove vs Goran Reljic (middleweight)

Grove is another fighter with nine lives. He has looked impressive at times, but he has a bit of a glass jaw, which has been exposed a number of times in spectacular fashion. He has lost four of his last seven, but I don’t expect him to get cut, even if he loses. Goran Reljic has a good record and a win over Wilson Gouveia, but he has alos lost to CB effing Dollaway, for Pete’s sake. Both have ground skills, but Reljic does have KO power. I’ll pick Reljic.

Gerald Harris vs Dave Branch (middleweight)

Who? Harris was apparently on TUF, but I don’t remember him at all. And I guess I missed his two previous UFC fights. Branch is 6-0, so one assumes he’s no pushover. I’ll take the guy with UFC experience and KO power, though. I’m picking Harris.

Daniel Roberts vs Forrest Petz (welterweight)

Roberts has a good record with a load of submission wins, including two by strikes. Petz has a load of experience including five UFC fights a while back (2-3). Roberts is a submission king and Petz has a habit of losing by submission. I’ll pick Roberts.

Jon Madsen vs Karlos Vemola (heavyweight)

Madsen, a former TUF competitor, is significantly heavier than the somewhat unknown Vemola. Vemola looks like a beast on paper, though, amassing a perfect 7-0 record, all ending in the first round by TKO or rear naked choke (meaning the opponent essentially turtled at some point). Granted, all of those fights took place in the UK, away from the bright UFC lights. Will the big stage scare the big man? I’m picking Vemola.

The Emperor Falls

Fedor lost on Saturday night.

That was the big MMA headline from the weekend and it will have repercussions for many months to come. No longer can Fedor fanboys claim their man is invincible. No longer will Fedor have that mystique about him that may have helped contribute to some of his victories, as opponents psyched themselves out. Now, he's human. Now he'll have to earn his crown back.

Is he the #1 heavyweight? Maybe, but now it isn't just the "he hasn't fought in the UFC yet," argument that spearheads the nays, but a new "he lost to a UFC cast-off" argument has taken the lead.

Werdum is a very good fighter. At one time, he seemed to be a scary up-and-comer in the UFC. Then he lost a couple of fights and was somewhat harshly discarded by the organization. He went into his fight with Fedor as an 8-1 underdog, though. Was the betting line justified? Or was this an example of money setting the line? How many people were really betting on Werdum?

I'm not sure that I was. He had lost to power before, after all, in the form of Junior Dos Santos. That KO is on highlight reels. But I had always felt Fedor was overrated or, at least, that there were holes in his game. I haven't seen too many of his fights, but the ones I have seen showed a fighter who could knock you out at any moment, but who looked somewhat clumsy in the interim. Clumsy is the lifeblood of Brazilian jiu-jitsu; make a mistake and it's over.

Sure enough, Fedor looked very clumsy as he pounced on a fallen Werdum in the hopes of a quick finish, but it was Werdum who would end the fight with a triangle choke/armbar combination. Fedor was even given an earlier opportunity to second-guess his attack as Werdum almost caught him in a triangle seconds earlier. But Fedor fell right back into position.

Clumsy.

So what now? Fedor has one more fight on his contract. That third fight was supposed to be for the belt and, ideally, a big fat new contract as champ. But unless Fedor waits the better part of a year for his next fight, that's not going to happen. Werdum will get Overeem first.

Was this M-1's miscalculation? Were they banking on the third fight being the title fight? It seems odd, doesn't it, that the "greatest heavyweight in the world" was not getting a title fight sooner?

And what does this mean for Strikeforce? Is the organization screwed, like Elite XC was when Kimbo lost, or is this actually healthy for the organization as it gives other fighters in the division more credibility?

Time will tell, I guess. Strikeforce will have to do more work to sell their product, one presumes, as they are more reliant upon a single face than is the UFC (Silva? GSP? Penn? Lesnar? Couture? Chuck, even?).

The next few months will go a long way to determine whether Strikeforce will survive in the long term.

In the meantime, check out reactions to Fedor's loss here.

UFC 115 Results

I missed this one, but let's see how I did.

Rich Franklin def. Chuck Liddell (KO 1)
I switched my pick and chose Liddell 'cause I didn't wanna root for his demise. But it came, and in surprising fashion as Franklin got the KO. Liddell's chin is glass now and he ought to retire. Too bad. (0-1)

Mirko Cro Cop Filipovic def. Pat Barry (sub 3)
Shocking ending as Cro Cop gets a submission. It looks like this was an entertaining fight, though, with the sluggers doing just that for the majority of the three rounds. Eventually, it was Barry who withered and the vet took over. Good for him. Barry will rebound. (0-2)

Martin Kampmann def. Paulo Thiago (unanimous)
Ouch. (0-3)

Ben Rothwell def. Gilbert Yvel (unanimous)
Finally - a win! (1-3)

Carlos Condit def. Rory MacDonald (TKO 3)
Apparently MacDonald was winning until he got finished in the third with 7 seconds left! Ouch. (2-3)

Evan Dunham def. Tyson Griffin (split)
I'm sorry I missed these fights. (3-3)

Matt Wiman def. Mac Danzig (sub 1)
Controversy here as Danzig didn't tap. Yves Lavigne thought Danzig was out, but the guillotine was only covering one side. The thing is, though, that Danzig did not respond when Lavigne tried to determine whether he was unconcious. That lack of response prompted Lavigne to watch out for the fighter's safety and he stopped the fight. A rematch is in the works for sure, giving Danzig a reprieve from the chopping block. He's clearly not a top-notch fighter, though. (4-3)

Mario Miranda def. David Loiseau (TKO 2)
Again, I was pulling for a guy who wasn't likely to win. Too bad for Loiseau. (4-4)

James Wilks def. Peter Sobotta (unanimous)
Didn't see it. (5-4)

Claude Patrick def. Ricardo Funch (sub 2)
Patrick looked pretty good, I have to say. (6-4)

Mike Pyle def. Jesse Lennox (sub 3)
Didn't see it. (7-4)

Didn't do well on the main card, but not bad overall.

UFC 115 Picks

Unfortunately, I'm likely to miss this one, so my post-fight analysis may be lacking, but I'm still gonna put in some picks.

Chuck Liddell vs Rich Franklin (light heavyweight)
This is a tough fight. It’s the end of the line for one of these two fighters. There’s very little upside. If Franklin wins, he beat the semi-retired Liddell and it does little to move him up the 205 ladder. If Chuck wins, he beat a guy who really hasn’t established himself as a light heavyweight so it probably doesn’t get him in title contention quickly enough to reclaim the belt before retirement claims him. It would also be devastating for Franklin’s career. His best hope after that would be to drop back down to 185 and hope Anderson Silva moves up to 205. This fight ends in one of two ways: Liddell KO or Franklin by decision. Any other way, and I’d be pretty shocked. Liddell’s style is poorly suited to getting enough points to score a decision and Franklin rarely KOs an opponent. Franklin managed to survive against the berserker attack of Wanderlei Silva, but Liddell is much more precise, patient striker. Can Liddell catch Franklin within 15 minutes? Tough call. Franklin doesn’t have the best chin, so one big shot might be enough. It’s 50/50 in my book, but I’ll pick…Liddell for fun (just 'cause if he loses, it's over).

Mirko Cro Cop Filipovic vs Pat Barry (heavyweight)
Cro Cop’s heart has seemingly disappeared, but for once he’s fighting a guy who is smaller than he is – that means he has a chance. But Barry has insane power. This ought to be fun. I’ll pick Barry.

Paulo Thiago vs Martin Kampmann (welterweight)
Could be Fight of the Night. These guys are smart, skilled and usually put on a good show. Thiago’s only loss is to Jon Fitch by decision – no shame there. He KO’d Koscheck who is now getting a title fight (how do you figure?). Kampmann also has a stellar record. I’m gonna pick Thiago.

Ben Rothwell vs Gilbert Yvel (heavyweight)
A battle of two underachievers. Rothwell was an IFL champ but has lost to Cain Velasquez in his UFC debut and Andrei Arlovski not long before that. Yvel has a decent record, but has fought lots of guys who were smaller than him (and lost some). He looked like garbage against Junior Dos Santos. These guys need to make an impression if they wanna stick around in the UFC. Look for the KO and look for Rothwell to get it.

Carlos Condit vs Rory MacDonald (welterweight)
Condit was a big deal in the WEC. So far, I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid. He represents a massive step up for MacDonald, though. Both guys have decent records and lots of submission victories. I hate to go against the Canadian, but I bet Condit the veteran finds a way to stay clamer and secure the submission. I’m picking Condit.

Tyson Griffin vs Evan Dunham (lightweight)
Both of these guys have a wrestling background, but Dunham has jiu jitsu to boot. They both have great records with impressive victories, but Dunham is undefeated and finishes fights whereas Griffin goes to a decision far too often. I’m picking Dunham.

Mac Danzig vs Matt Wiman (lightweight)
Danzig has some horseshoes up his butt to still be around in the UFC. But he’s a TUF darling, so it shouldn’t be that much of a surprise, I guess. Wiman was on the “TUF for losers” season, and came out looking pretty good, but he, too, is in danger of getting cut if he doesn’t get his act together. Both have lost to Jim Miller, with some nice wins and tough losses thrown in. I don’t know if Wiman can pull it off, but I’ll pulling for him ‘cause I’m sick of Danzig. I got Wiman.

David Loiseau vs Mario Miranda (middleweight)
I’m gonna be pulling for Loiseau, but let’s see if he has a chance. Miranda has a great record with a couple of notable wins but nothing too special. Loiseau has been doing well outside of the UFC but hasn’t had much success in the octagon lately. This is his big chance to make a splash in front of a partisan Canadian crowd. Miranda is a wrestler and jiu jitsu guy which is very dangerous and could mean a decision loss for Loiseau. Still, like I said, I’m pulling for him, so I got Loiseau.

James Wilks vs Peter Sobotta (welterweight)
Both have submissions skills but Sobotta also has power. Wilks seems slightly larger but that likely won’t be much of a factor. This could turn into a wrestling match, in which case Wilks’ muay thai could come into play. I’m gonna pick Wilks.

Ricardo Funch vs Claude Patrick (welterweight)
And now the silly picks. I don’t know much about either of these two. They have decent records but Patrick has loads of submissions. I’ll pick the Canadian and go with Patrick.

Mike Pyle vs Jesse Lennox (welterweight)
Despite a nice record, Pyle has lost just about every big fight he’s been in. Sure, he beat Jon Fitch, but that was in Fitch’s first pro fight and it was at 205 lbs. Of course Pyle’s first fight was against Rampage Jackson! Lennox, meanwhile has had only one semi-meaningful fight, losing to Rick Story. I’m picking the more experienced Pyle.

Could be a fun event, even though there aren't too many big names attached.