UFC Live: Vera vs Jones picks

This is an event availble on regular cable tv (at least in Canada) whihc is pretty sweet, 'cause it's a decent card, unlike most Fight Night Live cards which feature TUF guys and one ok fight as a main event.

Let's get to the picks:

Brandon Vera vs Jon Jones (light heavyweight) - Remember when Vera was the next big thing? When he had a great record, was a young up and comer and appeared to be a threat in the heavyweight and light heavyweight divisions? Well, after some lackluster performances in his last - what - 5 fights, that seems like a long time ago. Now it's Jones who is the up and comer with the great record and appears to be a rising darling with the UFC. This fight could represent a transition in both fighters' careers. If Jones wins, we could see him move into the top flight of the UFC, ready to take on some of the contenders. Vera would be looking at his second straight loss, his fifth in nine fights, and 3-3 since moving to light heavyweight. I don't think he'd be in danger of getting cut, but his star would seriously lack some shine. He ought to be the favourite in this fight and yet fans have him as a 2-1 underdog. Is it over for Vera? It all depends on which Vera shows up. If Smart Vera shows up, he'll find the weaknesses in Jones' game and secure a takedown and submission. If Silly Vera shows up, he'll stand and bang and get knocked out. This is a tough one to call. Jones is scary, but we haven't seen Vera's chin tested and I don't know if Jones can handle Vera on the ground. I think this one might actually turn into a snooze fest after the first round, with Jones winning by decision after some modest ground and pound.

Junior Dos Santos vs Gabriel Gonzaga (heavyweight) - Gonzaga needs to get this one to the mat. If he stands and bangs I don't like his chances one bit. Dos Santos has tremendous power in his fists, moreso than Gonzaga who is no slouch himself. I'm picking Dos Santos by KO.

Cheick Kongo vs Paul Buentello (heavyweight) - I've never been a big fans of Buentello's. He's a guy who swings for the fences with his big gut sticking out and seems to lay eggs in the big fights. He's susceptible to submissions, but he's fortunate that his opponent on Sunday has no ground game whatsoever. Cheick Kongo is a big dude who made a splash upon his arrival in the UFC, but has also been unimpressive in recent fights (even in victory). Neither one of these guys strikes me as true MMA fighters or heavyweight contenders. Buentello might get the KO, but I'll pick Kongo to bore us with a decision. The loser should be halfway to the door.

Alessio Sakara vs James Irvin (middleweight) - This is a battle of returning fighters. Sakara's been away since August 2009 while Irvin's been away a month longer thanks to injury and a drug suspension. It also features Irvin's debut at 185, which is a bit of a surprise as that's Anderson Silva's weight class - the guy who clubbed him last time out. Both fighters need the win after so-so careers in the cage. Both seem to like to stand and trade, in which case I'd give Irvin the edge. It'll be interesting to see if Irvin can handle the weight drop, though. Still, I'll pull for him. Irvin by KO.

Clay Guida vs Shannon Gugerty (lightweight) - after an 18-3 start, Guida is 7-8 in his last 15. That's not good. But three times he's won Fight Of The Night honours and he's had lots of tough opposition. This guy simply does not stop. I can't see him losing to Gugerty who has a far less impressive resume and is simply filling in for Sean Sherk. I'm picking Guida.

Eliot Marshall vs Vladimir Matyushenko (light heavyweight) - I like Marshall, but I fear he may be outclassed by Matyushenko. The man from Belarus has a very impressive resume while Marshall is still pretty new to the game and has yet to face top competition. Clearly this is a test for Marshall, and I think his only hope is to outlast the older (39) Matyushenko. If this goes to the ground, it'll be interesting to see what Marshall's jiu-jitsu can do against the old wrestler. I see Matyushenko by dull decision.

Duane Ludwig vs Darren Elkins (lightweight?) - Elkins is listed as a welterweight on the UFC site...Not sure what class this is being fought in. Lightweight, I think. Ludwig is a capable fighter while Elkins is making his UFC debut. I'll take the experienced Ludwig.

John Howard vs Daniel Roberts (welterweight) - I've never heard of Roberts, but the guy is a submission machine. Howard is no slouch, either. He's on a 6 fight win streak, 3 in the UFC. This could be the best fight of the night. Howard tends to go to decision, though, while Roberts is a first round finisher. I'll pick the new guy, Roberts.

Brendan Schaub vs Chase Gormley (heavyweight) - Schaub will be looking to make up for his highlight reel loss to Roy Nelson in the TUF finale. Can't say I know much about Gormley. I like Schaub, so I'll pick him.

Mike Pierce vs Julio Paulino (welterweight) - although his record doesn't show it, Pierce has a much better resulme than Paulino, who seems to spend a lot of time fighting in Alaska. I'll pick Pierce.

Eric Schafer vs Jason Brilz (light heavyweight) - Schafer is good but has laid some eggs. Brilz is coming off a loss but is a wrestler with submission skills. That's always good. 17-2 is also good, though granted not against top flight competition. Still, I'll pick Brilz for fun.