UFC 111 GSP vs Hardy Picks

UFC 111 takes place in Newark, NJ on Saturday. It features two title fights (kinda) and some sleeper fights in the undercard.

Let’s break it down:

Georges St-Pierre vs Dan Hardy (welterweight) – Hardy has a puncher’s chance. That’s it. GSP so ridiculously outclasses Hardy it isn’t funny. No way Hardy deserves this title shot, since he hasn’t fought anybody in the top five of the welterweight division. How do you get a title fight without fighting Fitch, Alves or even Koscheck? Hardy (barely) beat Marcus Davis (split decision) who, despite an 11-fight winning streak, appeared nowhere on the UFC’s title radar, and Mike Swick who hadn’t fought any tough guys himself. This is the sort of thing that makes you wonder about the UFC’s match making. Is Hardy getting the shot because of who he is (a colourful character) or what he is (a true contender – which he isn’t)? Still, Hardy has a chance of winning. Anybody can win on any given day. The point is, if he wins, has he earned it? I don’t think so. It’ll be Matt Serra all over again, with people salivating at the chance to un-seat Hardy who has shown no ground game. I think GSP ought to win, and I really, really hope he does since it would be a shame to repeat the Serra fiasco.

Frank Mir vs Shane Carwin (heavyweight) – Shane Carwin is a nice guy. He is also undefeated at 11-0. Good for him. But he is another guy who simply has not earned his shot. Who has he beaten? Gabriel Gonzaga? Great. Nice job. But Gonzaga was winning that fight and Gonzaga isn’t exactly setting the UFC on fire with losses to Randy Couture, Fabricio Werdum and Junior Dos Santos. Is Gonzaga really the guy that is the benchmark for heavyweight title contenders? I don’t think so. But that just goes to show how thin the heavyweight division has become. Get one big win and you’re in title contention. Why is the UFC bothering with this interim title crap if Lesnar is back? When his health was in doubt, ok, it made sense. But now? In the end, this fight is exactly what it should be – a contender’s fight. Whoever wins is probably deserving of a shot – at least, more deserving than they are now. Do we really wan to see Lesnar-Mir III, though? That would account for half of Lesnar’s matches… As for the fight at hand, I think Mir will win, but I’d like to see Carwin pull it off, so I’ll bet on Carwin.

Kurt Pellegrino vs Fabricio Camoes (lightweight) – Why is this fight on the main card? I’ve never been a big fan of Pellegrino and who the hell is Camoes? There are better fights on the card. Camoes makes his UFC debut, while Pellegrino is 6-3 in the UFC. Both of these guys tend to win by submission, with Pellegrino having more experience and tougher fights. I’ll pick Pellegrino.

Jon Fitch vs Been Saunders (welterweight) – Thiago Alves had to pull out of his rematch with Fitch (again) due to injury (again). So instead, we get Saunders who was supposed to fight Jake Ellenberger (I guess the UFC really wanted Fitch on the card) and is coming off a devastating win over Marcus Davis. Saunders is a nice guy and is obviously talented, but he’s out of his league with Fitch. Fitch is unstoppable and has a crazy record; his only loss in his last 20 fights was to GSP and while the champ pushed him around for five rounds, Fitch refused to quit. Although Fitch hasn’t prepared for Saunders (who has a completely different style than Alves) I’ll pick Fitch.

Jim Miller vs Mark Bocek (lightweight) – Both of these guys are impressive and both have lost to Frank Edgar (no shame there). Both seem to like submissions. Tough one to call. I’ll cheer for the Canadian, I guess: Bocek.

Nate Diaz vs Rory Markham (welterweight) – Diaz makes his debut at 170, which to me is an odd move (although, having lost 3 of 4, perhaps he was hoping the move would extend his life span in the UFC). It seems to me his style is much better suited to lightweight, where his reach was formidable. At 170 he’ll be facing even stronger guys who will be able to lay and pray. Diaz’s weak point is clearly his game plans. He either needs a new coach or he needs to smarten up. You can’t win if you stay on your back unless you submit your opponent. Markham is a KO specialist who will try to keep this one on its feet. Look for Diaz’s chin to be tested. I’ll pick Markham if he can keep this on its feet.

Ricardo Almeida vs Matt Brown (welterweight) – Almeida is making his debut at 170 as well. He’s a talented guy, but has gone to decision a few too many times for my liking. Not sure why he’s dropping down in weight when the middleweight division seems so thin. I like Brown but he is susceptible to submissions, which happens to be Almeida’s specialty. Anybody who can submit Nate Marquardt is impressive. I don’t like Brown’s chances. I’ll pick Almeida.

Rodney Wallace vs Jared Hamman (light heavyweight) – Who? Two former football players with similar records, both coming off losses in their UFC debuts. Wallace tends to go to decision while Hamman knocks guys out quick. I’ll pick Hamman.

Matthew Riddle vs Greg Soto (welterweight) – Another welterweight fight. Soto will be the hometown favourite in his UFC debut. He has a better record and more experience than Riddle who has shown some promise. I don’t like Riddle’s chances, though I’ll secretly be cheering for him. My head says Soto.

Man, I hope GSP is still champ come Monday…