UFC 104 Predictions

Time for predictions once again. I can't say this card fascinates me, but I still wouldn't wanna miss it.

Lyoto Machida Vs. Mauricio Rua - I'm blown away that this fight is even happening for the light heavyweight belt. Machida got his shot without fighting any real top flight competition (Ortiz before he left? untested Silva?) in his weight class (he has wins over Rich Franklin and BJ Penn) and Rua has received an even easier road to the title. Rua lost to Griffin, was crap against geriatric Mark Coleman, and beat Chuck Liddell at a time in his career where he was SO dangerous that Dana White promptly retired him after the fight. Honestly: what the f*ck? The light heavy division is stacked with talent and yet these guys get byes to the top. I call bullshit. Anyhow, I pick Machida to beat Rua.

Cain Velasquez Vs. Ben Rothwell - This fight could be boring as hell if it turns into a wrestling match. It could also end in dramatic fashion if Rothwell can catch Velasquez and tag the chin that Cheick Kongo exposed. Neither is deserving of a title shot, of course, though Velasquez is the latest UFC poster boy. Rothwell has a lot of experience and could pull off the "upset". He's certainly the biggest test of Velasquez's short career. I'll pick Rothwell to shatter Dana White's dreams.

Gleison Tibau Vs. Josh Neer - Both of these fighters have good reputations, but haven't been able to break into the top ranks of MMA, due to disappointing losses to upper-middle guys. Both have submission skills but Neer has more KO power. That could be the difference. My gut says Tibau, but my head says Neer. I usually go wrong when I don't go with my heart... I'll go with my head again. I'll pick Neer.

Joe Stevenson Vs. Spencer Fisher - I used to quite like Joe "Daddy" Stevenson but he just hasn't evolved and has never lived up to the potential he showed in TUF. Fisher is a warrior. I'll pick Fisher.

Anthony Johnson Vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida - Yoshida has only beaten some so-so guys and got blasted by Josh Koscheck. Johnson is one scary dude. I'll pick Johnson.

Ryan Bader Vs. Eric Schafer - This could be another boring one. Bader is badass but is a pretty straight forward wrestler. Eric "The Red" is riding a four fight win streak but has always been one of those guys who just hasn't lived up to the hype. He might have the experience to outsmart Bader, though. Tough call. I like Bader, so I'll take him.

Antoni Hardonk Vs. Pat Barry - Hardonk is another underachiever. He has lost to McCully, Kongo and Mir, while beating no one of significance. Like Hardonk, Barry has a kickboxing background and has finished opponents with kicks. He isn't very experienced, but he seems like a scary guy. I'll pick Barry in another "upset". I just can't pick Hardonk.

Yushin Okami Vs. Chael Sonnen - both guys came in with big buzz but haven't quite lived up to the hype. Okami has at least pulled out some ugly victories, but Sonnen has been the poster boy for those who dismissed the WEC as a farm team organization. The guy just doesn't do it for me. I'll pick Okami in another boring decision.

Jorge Rivera Vs. Rob Kimmons - Why Rivera keeps getting face time in the UFC is a bit of a mystery. He really isn't all that good; inconsistent to say the least. He seems to alternate wins and losses, sometimes beating middle of the road guys, but often losing to anyone decent. Kimmons has an impressive record, but seems to lose all of his biggest matches. He has a crazy number of submissions on his resume, though, and so I'll give him the edge against the average Rivera. I'll pick Kimmons.

Kyle Kingsbury Vs. Razak Al-Hassan - Two guys trying to make names for themselves in the UFC and in danger of getting cut if they don't. Kingsbury was a TUF 8 cast member, but didn't impress. Al-Hassan is also making his second appearance in the UFC, after a spectacular loss almost a year ago to Steve Cantwell in which Al-Hassan had his arm broken...and still didn't tap. It was nasty. This one is a toss-up to me, but I'll pick Al-Hassan just 'cause of his guts.

Stefan Struve Vs. Chase Gormley - I can't wait to see this giant fight again to see just what he has to offer. He's 6'11"!! That's nuts. Gormley is making his UFC debut and that usually does not bode well, perfect record or not. Struve is a submission machine while Gormley seems more well-rounded. Another pick-'em, so I'll go with Struve for fun.

This doesn't appear to be an exciting card. I hope that I'll be pleasantly surprised.