UFC 131 Picks

Ok, I've been slacking off here. I got married about a month ago and have been sidetracked. Sorry, folks!

So let's get our 131 picks in before the event starts, shall we?

Junior Dos Santos vs. Shane Carwin (heavyweight)
This was supposed to be Dos Santos vs Lesnar, the battle of the two Ultimate Fighter coaches, but Lesnar's stomach problems flared up so he's out til the new year. In steps Carwin and this becomes arguably a better fight. Power vs power. Thing is, Carwin has power for one round, it seems, while Dos Santos can go longer. So the question is whether Dos Santos can get the fight beyond the first round and whether Carwin will have any gas if it does. Dos Santos is tough and has dynamite in his hands, but Carwin has plutonium in his. These guys have identical records and while Dos Santos is two inches taller, Carwin is 30lbs heavier and has a surprising two inch reach advantage. When these two throw bombs, those tiny two inches could make all the difference. I like both of these guys, and while I don’t like Carwin’s chances beyond the first round, I think this fight won’t last that long. I’m picking Carwin to either KO Dos Santos or use his wrestling to get the fight to the ground and pound his way to victory.

Kenny Florian vs. Diego Nunes (featherweight)

Florian makes his debut at 145lbs versus the WEC vet. Nunes is dangerous, with his only loss by decision – but that’s the thing: he often goes to decision. Florian does a much better job of finishing and will have the edge on the ground. They have similar styles, but Florian should have the size advantage. This is not an easy fight for Florian, but I guess he didn’t want to waste any time getting into title contention at 145. I’m picking Florian.

Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman (heavyweight)

This is the third ranked fight? Really? Not much of a card, I guess. Might explain the lack of a sell-out in Vancouver. Ok, based on Wikipedia, I’d say Einemo looks very impressive. Not a ton of experience, but he’s a very good BJJ guy who has made guys tap out due to strikes. Nice. Herman has a lot of experience, but nothing very notable. He knocks guys out fast. This could be fun. I was gonna pick the better BJJ guy, but Herman’s a wrestler, which means he ought to be able to avoid the ground and swing for the fences. I’ll pick Herman.

Demian Maia vs. Mark Munoz (middleweight)

Could be interesting, could be boring. Maia is a BJJ ace, while Munoz has power. Being a wrestler, Munoz might be able to avoid the ground where Maia is almost lights out. I don’t like Maia’s chances if he stands and boxes with Munoz. This style match-up would seem to favour Munoz. Maia is smart, though – I think he’ll find a way. I’ll pick Maia.

Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha (lightweight)

I like Cerrone. He always brings the fight. Rocha is a dangerous BJJ guy, but Cerrone will likely stand and bang out a victory. I’ll pick Cerrone.

Sam Stout vs. Yves Edwards (lightweight)

Stout is another entertaining fighter, though he’s a bit one dimensional these days. He pretty much just stands and bangs, without much KO power. Edwards has a crazy amount of experience but has won only 10 of his last 18 fights over 6 years. Not bad, not great. He’s dangerous on the ground, but I don’t imagine Stout will engage him there. This could be fight of the night. I’m gonna pick Edwards by submission.

Jesse Bongfeldt vs. Chris Weidman (middleweight)

Bongfeldt is Canadian and although he does not have a ton of accolades or international experience and is listed as a karate fighter, he has shown that he can finish guys on the ground. Weidman is still pretty green, though he does have a win over Alessio Sakara.I'll pick the Canadian - Bongfeldt.

Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Mike Massenzio (light heavyweight)

Soszynski needs this one. Massenzio is a replacement, fighting a bit above his weight. I'll pick Soszynski.

Nick Ring vs. James Head (middleweight)

Ring won a controversial one last time out, so he needs a clean win here to silence the critics. Head has a decent record, but is making his UFC debut while Ring has been there before. I'll pick Ring by decision.

Dustin Poirier vs. Jason Young (featherweight)

Poirier has the better record, better experience and can submit. I'll pick Poirier.

Joey Beltran vs. Aaron Rosa (heavyweight)

I'm not a fan of Beltran's. He has a decent record, but is coming off two losses and his last win was a controversial one over Tim Hague. Rosa, though, is green to the UFC and is a bit large so he may gas. I like his BJJ experience in this one, though. I'll pick Rosa for the upset.

Darren Elkins vs. Michihiro Omigawa (featherweight)

Not a big fan of Omigawa. I expect Elkins will lay and pray to victory. I'll pick Elkins.