UFC 132 Picks

Not a lot of time, so just quick picks:

Cruz

Wanderlei

Bader

Condit

Siver

Guillard

Sotiropoulos

Bowles

Tavares

Winner

Walker

This actually looks like a decent event. Too bad I'll miss it this cottage weekend.

UFC on Versus 4 Results

What a crazy event this turned out to be. There were some really great fights with spectacular finishes, but the big news was Nate Marquardt not being medically cleared and being cut from the UFC. What the heck did he do? Other fighters have tested positive for drugs and not been banned, so what could possibly be the reasoning here? We'll find out Tuesday, supposedly.

Let's get to the results:

Rick Story vs. Nate Marquardt (no fight)
This fight didn't happen, as I've said. Instead we got Charlie Brenneman filling in for Marquardt at the last minute.

Charlie Brenneman def. Rick Story (unanimous)

Brenneman had seen his own fight disappear when TJ Grant got hurt. Wonder how Story felt about this? And remember - Story was himself a late replacement for Anthony Rumble Johnson. Story had nothing to gain from this fight and everything to lose. As is the custom in these UFC situations, the guy with everything to lose did in fact lose. This put Brenneman on the map but seriously derailed Story's title aspirations. Despite the victory, Brenneman did not look good. He took Story down a couple of times and laid and prayed his way to the decision. He benefited from a generous ref who did not stand them up despite a lack of action. This is one area where the game has to change. Oh, and since the event took place in Pennsylvania, there were newbie refs for some fights - and it showed. One ref was simply awful, allowing one fighter to take too much abuse and he is the same one who let Brenneman steal his fight.

Cheick Kongo def. Pat Barry (KO 1)
Wow. CRAZY ending. Barry had this fight sewn up, charged in for the kill and got caught by Kongo for the massive come from behind KO. It was shocking, really, that the fight had not been stopped sooner. Kongo was clearly not defending himself, with his hands at his sides and wide open for abuse, but Barry woke him up with punches instead of putting him away. The ref did in fact put his hands on Barry when he was pummeling Kongo as if to stop it, but quickly took them off. I dunno...as soon as a ref puts his hands on a fighter, that ought to be it. The fighter is actually SUPPOSED to relent at that point. But the ref was Dan Miragliotta - the same guy who let the Lesnar-Carwin fight go, allowing Lesnar to recover and win the fight. Barry should have won this fight - but he didn't. Like Sell-Smith, this will be on the highlight reels forever. (0-1)

Matt Brown def. John Howard (unanimous)
This fight was boring as hell. Not sure what the heck Howard was thinking - he tried to take Brown down and gassed out in the process. Stupid. Brown got the win that he desperately needed, but, like Brenneman, he did not impress. He'll probably keep his job, though. (0-2)

Matt Mitrione def. Christian Morecraft (KO 2)
Great fight, as anticipated. These guys threw bombs and Mitrione proved he is a force to be reckoned with. He put Morecraft on his ass a few times but the ref let it go (he really should have stopped the fight sooner). This was the same ref as the Brenneman-Story fight, though. Let's hope Mitrione sees better opponents in the future. Pat Barry, maybe? (1-2)

Tyson Griffin def. Manny Gamburyan (majority)
Did not see it, but after a slow start it seems Griffin dominated the fight. (2-2)

Javier Vazquez def. Joe Stevenson (unanimous)
SURELY Joe Daddy will be cut after this. I mean, come on! He has not evolved since TUF and has shown he cannot hang with the big boys. Apparently he was dominated in this one. This loss means he is 3-7 in his last ten. That's disgusting. (3-2)

Joe Lauzon def. Curt Warburton (sub 1)
Apparently Lauzon put on anopther sick clinic. Dunno how he looked so bad against Sotiropoulos, but let's hope this is the beginning of a comeback. (4-2)

Rich Attonito def. Daniel Roberts (unanimous)
Apparently Roberts gassed and could not recover. (4-3)

Charles Oliveira def. Nik Lentz (sub 2)
We might see a rematch or no contest out of this one as the end apparently came as a result of an illegal knee that the ref missed. That allowed Oliveira to get the rear naked choke to finish what was till then a very entertaining fight, I hear. (5-3)

Ricardo Lamas def. Matt Grice (TKO 1)
Maybe the weight cut hurt Grice. (5-4)

Michael Johnson def. Edward Faaloloto (KO 1)
I hear Johnson looked decent. (6-4)

Meh. A winning record, but not so great. I hope I get to see some of those undercard fights on Unleashed.

UFC Live on Versus Picks

Rick Story vs. Nate Marquardt (welterweight)
This ought to be interesting because it marks the debut of Marquardt at welterweight - the same division as his training partner, GSP. If Marquardt wins, he'll move up the ladder quickly and could be in line for a title shot soon. Would he fight GSP? It would probably be a good challenge for the champ. Story is good, but I'm gonna pick Marquardt.

Pat Barry vs Cheick Congo (heavyweight)
Congo kinda sucks. His stand up is decent, but his ground game is atrocious. Good thing for him that Barry has no ground game either. In fact, Congo might look to take Barry down. Congo will enjoy a massive size advantage and it remains to be seen if Barry can get inside and hit the big guy. If these guys were the same size I'd pick Barry in a heartbeat. But with this size differential? It's tough. I think Congo will squeeze out a boring decision, but I hate pulling for that, so I'll pick Barry by TKO.

John Howard vs Matt Brown (welterweight)
I like Brown, but he's not really an elite MMA guy. He's a scrapper who would put on a good show in smaller promotions. He's a bit outclassed in the UFC. But he has a size advantage in this fight, which might make the difference. ...But I don't think so - I'll pick Howard. If Brown loses, he'll get cut for sure.

Matt Mitrione vs Christian Morecraft (heavyweight)
This ought to be fun. Both have significant power. Surprisingly enough, I'd say Mitrione is in better shape, so if he can get this past the first round his odds of winning increase. Morecraft finishes fights quick but we have yet to see Mitrione get knocked done. I'll pick Mitrione.

Manny Gamburyan vs Tyson Griffin (featherweight)
I was a fan of Manny's until he pulled the ultimate douche move in the Cox fight (striking when the opponent went to touch gloves). He's talented but small and does not have the best chin. Tyson was looking great for a while with some big wins and having lost only to champions. But he has lost three in a row, including one to has-been (and overrated) Takanori Gomi. Tyson needs this one badly or he might get cut. This fight also marks his return to featherweight. It could be a really good fight with two evenly-matched fighters who usually put on a good show. If Griffin tries to wrestle, Gamburyan might use his judo to throw Griffin around. Tough call. I'll pick Griffin.

Joe Stevenson vs Javier Vazquez (featherweight)
Another fight that features a move in weight class. This time it's UFC darling Joe Stevenson dropping to featherweight. Surely this is Joe Daddy's last kick at the can, his last chance to remain at all relevant. The guy has lost 6 of his last 9 fights, including 3 in a row and 5 of 7. Nice guy, but not UFC material - not anymore. The UFC must be in his corner, throwing him a bone in the form of Vazquez who has lost 3 of 5. I can't say I like either fighter in terms of UFC potential, but for this fight I'll pick Vazquez by submission.

Joe Lauzon vs Curt Warburton (lightweight)
Not sure what's going on here. Maybe Warburton is on the way up and Lauzon need a rebound fight, but I don't really see how this fight was put together. Lauzon has far more experience and having him fight a British guy form the Wolfslair is a bit of a mismatch. Warburton has a puncher's chance, but otherwise I see Lauzon ending this in the first by submission.

Daniel Roberts vs Rich Attonito (welterweight)
Two guys whose specialties are BJJ and wrestling. If that means a stand up war, I'll pick Attonito. But I see Roberts getting the advantage and taking this to the ground where he has the edge. I'll pick Roberts.

Nik Lentz vs Charles Oliveira (lightweight)
Boy I hope this one is on TV. This could be another great one. Lentz has a crazy record, but Oliveira has insane BJJ (even though he is only a brown belt). If it goes to decision, it'll be Lentz for sure. If not, it's Oliveira by submission. I hate rooting for decisions, so I'll pick Oliveira.

Ricardo Lamas vs Matt Grice (featherweight)
Yet another featherweight debut - this time it's Grice. Lamas looks but so does Grice. Grice is a wrestler but has a number of submission wins, usually by guillotine. I'm gonna pick randomly and go with Grice.

Michael Johnson vs Edward Faaloloto (lightweight)
Johnson is a former TUF finalist, losing to Johnathan Brookins. Johnson looked ok, but not great. Faaloloto is a nobody who somehow managed to get a UFC fight. Maybe it's 'cause he trains with Chris Leben? Who knows. The UFC site has him listed at 5-1 while Sherdog (and every other site) has him at 2-1. So he's a bit of a mystery and quite unproven. He looks decent, but he's so raw that I can't pick him. I'll pick Johnson.

UFC 131 Results

Missed the event - again. Ugh. My schedule is a mess.

Well, let's see how I did.

Junior Dos Santos def. Shane Carwin (unanimous)
Everyone expected this to end quick, but both fighters showed they have strong chins. And it helped that they didn't really engage all that much. Junior had Carwin down late in the first and really should have ended it, but backed off perhaps for fear of gassing himself out. he might have been able to get a sub though. Carwin showed much better cardio this time. He also used his wrestling a bit more, but still not enough. It cost him. (0-1)

Kenny Florian def. Diego Nunes (unanimous)
Didn't see much of this, but it appears that Florian simply frustrated Nunes and wore him down. (1-1)

Dave Herman def. Jon Olav Einemo (TKO 3)
From the highlights, it appeared Einemo was winning the fight until he got swarmed and caved. It was a good fight and Herman rallied for the win. (2-1)

Mark Munoz def. Demian Maia (unanimous)
I knew this was a bad match-up for Maia. I thought he might be able to find a way, due to his experience, but Munoz held firm, avoided the submissions and once Maia had blown his wad on the stand-up, Munoz took over. (2-2)

Donald Cerrone def. Vagner Rocha (unanimous)
Rocha took the fight on short notice, so good for him. But Cerrone needs top notch competition. He's a top dog. This was a tune-up. (3-2)

Sam Stout def. Yves Edwards (KO 1)
MASSIVE knock out. This one will be on the highlight reels for years to come. Edwrads hit Stout with a big shot and then got clocked in return. Stout showed an iron chin and stone fists. he also showed class in not hitting Edwards once he was out. I'm looking at you, Dan Henderson. (3-3)

Chris Weidman def. Jesse Bongfeldt (sub 1)
Bongfeldt was doing well until he got caught and stuck his neck out too far. (3-4)

Krzysztof Soszynski def. Mike Massenzio (unanimous)
Soszynski got the win he needed. Back on track. (4-4)

Nick Ring def. James Head (sub 3)
Ring won cleanly, which is good for him and may shed some of the heat he took for his last decision. (5-4)

Dustin Poirier def. Jason Young (unanimous)
Didn't see it. Yet another decision. (6-4)

Joey Beltran def. Aaron Rosa (heavyweight)
I didn't know much about Rosa before this. Now I've learned he's a big fat f**k who needs to stop eating burgers. Dude, seriously, lose some weight - you're a middleweight in a heavyweight's body. This guy made BELTRAN look like he had a six pack. Sad. Give these guys credit for swinging for the fences, but these guys are not exactly contenders. This was a bar fight. (6-5)

Darren Elkins def. Michihiro Omigawa (unanimous)
Despite the unanimous decision, this one was apparently controversial. Dana White tweeted that Omigawa was "robbed". Didn't see it. (7-5)

Hm. 7-5. Not great.

UFC 131 Picks

Ok, I've been slacking off here. I got married about a month ago and have been sidetracked. Sorry, folks!

So let's get our 131 picks in before the event starts, shall we?

Junior Dos Santos vs. Shane Carwin (heavyweight)
This was supposed to be Dos Santos vs Lesnar, the battle of the two Ultimate Fighter coaches, but Lesnar's stomach problems flared up so he's out til the new year. In steps Carwin and this becomes arguably a better fight. Power vs power. Thing is, Carwin has power for one round, it seems, while Dos Santos can go longer. So the question is whether Dos Santos can get the fight beyond the first round and whether Carwin will have any gas if it does. Dos Santos is tough and has dynamite in his hands, but Carwin has plutonium in his. These guys have identical records and while Dos Santos is two inches taller, Carwin is 30lbs heavier and has a surprising two inch reach advantage. When these two throw bombs, those tiny two inches could make all the difference. I like both of these guys, and while I don’t like Carwin’s chances beyond the first round, I think this fight won’t last that long. I’m picking Carwin to either KO Dos Santos or use his wrestling to get the fight to the ground and pound his way to victory.

Kenny Florian vs. Diego Nunes (featherweight)

Florian makes his debut at 145lbs versus the WEC vet. Nunes is dangerous, with his only loss by decision – but that’s the thing: he often goes to decision. Florian does a much better job of finishing and will have the edge on the ground. They have similar styles, but Florian should have the size advantage. This is not an easy fight for Florian, but I guess he didn’t want to waste any time getting into title contention at 145. I’m picking Florian.

Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman (heavyweight)

This is the third ranked fight? Really? Not much of a card, I guess. Might explain the lack of a sell-out in Vancouver. Ok, based on Wikipedia, I’d say Einemo looks very impressive. Not a ton of experience, but he’s a very good BJJ guy who has made guys tap out due to strikes. Nice. Herman has a lot of experience, but nothing very notable. He knocks guys out fast. This could be fun. I was gonna pick the better BJJ guy, but Herman’s a wrestler, which means he ought to be able to avoid the ground and swing for the fences. I’ll pick Herman.

Demian Maia vs. Mark Munoz (middleweight)

Could be interesting, could be boring. Maia is a BJJ ace, while Munoz has power. Being a wrestler, Munoz might be able to avoid the ground where Maia is almost lights out. I don’t like Maia’s chances if he stands and boxes with Munoz. This style match-up would seem to favour Munoz. Maia is smart, though – I think he’ll find a way. I’ll pick Maia.

Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha (lightweight)

I like Cerrone. He always brings the fight. Rocha is a dangerous BJJ guy, but Cerrone will likely stand and bang out a victory. I’ll pick Cerrone.

Sam Stout vs. Yves Edwards (lightweight)

Stout is another entertaining fighter, though he’s a bit one dimensional these days. He pretty much just stands and bangs, without much KO power. Edwards has a crazy amount of experience but has won only 10 of his last 18 fights over 6 years. Not bad, not great. He’s dangerous on the ground, but I don’t imagine Stout will engage him there. This could be fight of the night. I’m gonna pick Edwards by submission.

Jesse Bongfeldt vs. Chris Weidman (middleweight)

Bongfeldt is Canadian and although he does not have a ton of accolades or international experience and is listed as a karate fighter, he has shown that he can finish guys on the ground. Weidman is still pretty green, though he does have a win over Alessio Sakara.I'll pick the Canadian - Bongfeldt.

Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Mike Massenzio (light heavyweight)

Soszynski needs this one. Massenzio is a replacement, fighting a bit above his weight. I'll pick Soszynski.

Nick Ring vs. James Head (middleweight)

Ring won a controversial one last time out, so he needs a clean win here to silence the critics. Head has a decent record, but is making his UFC debut while Ring has been there before. I'll pick Ring by decision.

Dustin Poirier vs. Jason Young (featherweight)

Poirier has the better record, better experience and can submit. I'll pick Poirier.

Joey Beltran vs. Aaron Rosa (heavyweight)

I'm not a fan of Beltran's. He has a decent record, but is coming off two losses and his last win was a controversial one over Tim Hague. Rosa, though, is green to the UFC and is a bit large so he may gas. I like his BJJ experience in this one, though. I'll pick Rosa for the upset.

Darren Elkins vs. Michihiro Omigawa (featherweight)

Not a big fan of Omigawa. I expect Elkins will lay and pray to victory. I'll pick Elkins.