UFC 126 Picks

Ok, here we go - back to predictions.

UFC 126 has a fairly decent card, with some interesting fights in the main events.

Anderson Silva vs Vitor Belfort (middleweight)
Anderson Silva has dominated the middleweight division for some time. But let's face it: it's a pretty weak division. Has he really faced the level of competition that other title holders have? For the most part, he has faced guys who are tailor-made for this style: stand-up guys with little knock-out power or jiu-jitsu guys with little to no wrestling ability. Not hard for a guy with crazy reach and KO power to dodge. Wrestlers have given him a harder time. Travis Lutter looked decent until he gassed and fell into a triangle. Chael Sonnen was kicking Silva's ass for 4.5 rounds until he also had a brain fart and got caught with a punch from the back followed by a triangle. I sense someone like Randy Couture could beat Silva. Even GSP, if he could get inside. But this is the first time Silva will face a guy with crazy KO power. We've seen Silva get stunned by punches before and not by powerful guys. If Belfort can crack Silva just once, that might be the end of it. Question is: can he get close enough to the champ? Belfort has only been TKO'd twice - by Randy Couture, a guy who grounded and pounded him to death first. That's not Silva's style. This is a great match-up, as both guys will be looking to bang. It'll be a matter of who connects best, first. Don't be surprised if Vitor KO's the champ. Still, I don't like the way his career has been up-and-down, and I'm not quite convinced he has earned this title shot. But, like I said, it's a weak division. I'm picking Silva, but I'll be cheering for Belfort.

Forrest Griffin vs Rich Franklin (light heavyweight)
Another interesting match-up. These two have very similar styles - stand-up guys, with not the greatest KO power. Franklin has the edge in the KO potential department, while Griffin will have a size advantage which may help if he plays it smart and takes Franklin down. I like both of these guys, but I've always been a big Forrest fan. I can't bet against him, even though I sense Franklin might get the TKO. I'm picking Forrest by decision.

Ryan Bader vs Jon Jones (light heavyweight)
Yet another fascinating match-up. The flashy, powerful Jones versus the powerful wrestler Bader. Two young guns with perfect records (forget that Matt Hamill nonsense) looking to move up the ladder in the UFC's deepest division. Can Bader get inside and take Jones down? Will Jones pull off some crazy move for the highlight-reel victory? Jones dominated Hamill, so why should this fight be any different? Bader has been impressive, but he hasn't faced someone with Jones' skills. This will be a big win for one of these fighters, moving them into the upper tier and perhaps two fights away from a title shot. I really like Bader, but my money's on Jones.

Jake Ellenberger vs Carlos Eduardo Rocha (welterweight)
Ellenberger is a wrestler with a very good record, though not huge wins. Rocha is a Brazilian jiu jitsu guy with a perfect record and zero important wins. He's super dangerous on the ground it seems, but he has very little experience. So should we believe the hype or will he fold to the veteran? One would think that the wrestler would avoid the ground and rely on his KO power. I'm guessing Ellenberger's not an idiot, so I'll pick him. Ellenberger by TKO.

Miguel Angel Torres vs Antonio Banuelos (bantamweight)
A WEC import fight. Personally, I'm a bit disappointed that the UFC has folded the WEC into the main house, since it means featuring the bigger guys less and making name recognition just that much more difficult. I can't say I know too many of these light guys, and it'll take some time to make them household names - at the expense of up-and-coming big men. Torres was the man at bantamweight for a while, of course, seemingly unbeatable - until he lost. Twice. Banuelos is known for some big fights in WEC as well as an early appearance on the TapouT talent hunt show. His record would suggest he's not quite in the same class as Torres, but he does have some fight in him, form what I recall. Still, I'm picking Torres to get his career back on track now that he's in the big show.

Donald Cerrone vs Paul Kelly (lightweight)
Should be a good fight. Both of these guys are active, stand-up guys, but Cerrone likes the ground, too. Kelly keeps surprising me, but I haven't seen his recent fights to know how he has handled himself. Cerrone is a guy who tends to stand more than he should. He has very dangerous ground skills which should serve him well in this fight. I'm picking Cerrone by submission.

Chad Mendes vs Michihiro Omigawa (featherweight)
9-0 versus 12-8? Seems like an obvious pick, right? Omigawa doesn't have the best record, but that's deceptive - most of his losses came early in his career and he's on a pretty good run right now. He also has power, which is unusual at that weight. But I'm not convinced that the Pride fighters are able to adapt to the octagon. Omigawa has fought twice in the UFC before, both losses. Mendes is a wrestler and has a perfect record. That's it: I'm picking Mendes.

Norifumi Yamamoto vs Demetrious Johnson (bantamweight)
Johnson is a wrestler with submission skills. Yamamoto is a wrestler with muay thai skills. That means Yamamoto ought to be able to keep this on the feet and use his power advantage. I'm gonna go against the grain and pick Yamamoto.

Paul Taylor vs Gabe Ruediger (lightweight)
Not sure why Ruediger is getting yet another fight in the UFC. He has shown nothing. Despite the fact that he has lost 5 of 7, Taylor sticks around because he goes all out and gets Fight of the Night honours. I'm picking the bigger Taylor to knock Ruediger out. I bet the loser gets cut.

Kyle Kingsbury vs Ricardo Romero (light heavyweight)
Kingsbury was a TUF competitor and has had mixed results since, but is coming off a FotN win. Romero, though, is no joke. He essentially has a perfect record, his only loss being a DQ when he soccer kicked a downed opponent. I'm picking Romero.

Mike Pierce vs Kenny Robertson (welterweight)
Pierce is a wrestler who almost always goes to decision. Boring, but he's 13-3. Robertson (no Wikipedia page) has a perfect record and submission skills. Let's hope he can put them to good use and show the wrestler that fans don't like boring. I'm picking Robertson.