UFC 123 Picks

Alright, some quick picks on the Rampage-Machida card:

Rampage Jackson vs Lyoto Machida (light heavyweight)
This is finesse versus the rabid dog; and it could get embarrassing. I could see Machida easily dodging Rampage's attacks and countering effectively, frustrating Jackson and eventually putting him away or winning a lopsided decision. But, make no mistake, Jackson has a puncher's chance. He may possess Shogun Rua's power, but unless he can move like Rua, it's hard to imagine him getting the KO. I'm picking Machida.

Matt Hughes vs BJ Penn (welterweight)
Penn moves back up to welterweight to settle the score in this rubber match. Is Hughes too old to catch Penn and take him down like he did last time? Is Penn going to use his skills to submit Hughes like he did the first time or will he stand and jab his way to a decision? Hughes hasn't been relevant since he lost his belt, mostly due to a long layoff and a couple of less-than-stellar since his return. (don't get me started on that Almeida fiasco) Hughes isn't the fighter he was, in my eyes, while Penn has been battling top-notch lightweights as champ. Both fighters are on the decline, but Hughes has the head start. I'm picking Penn.

Gerald Harris vs Maiquel Falcao (middleweight)
This has Knock Out of the Night written all over it. These two guys like to bang hard. Falcao is a nobody with an insane record and a mile-long list of first round KOs. I was gonna pick Harris, but this Falcao's record has me second guessing myself. Still, I'll go with the guy who has been under the big lights before - Harris.

Phil Davis vs Tim Boetsch (light heavyweight)
I wish Tim well, but there's NO WAY I'm going against Davis. Forget it. The guy is a machine. I'm picking...Davis.

George Sotiropoulos vs Joe Lauzon (lightweight)
This has Fight of the Night written all over it and I would suggest the winner will be knocking on the Title Shot door. Bot are favourites of mine and possess crazy jiu jitsu skills. But will they respect each other's strengths and choose to box instead? I hope not. I like Joe, but he had his shot at the #1 contendership with his disappointing fight against Florian - I'm cheering for Sotiropoulos.

Matt Brown vs Brian Foster (welterweight)
If Brown loses, I think this might be the last we see of him for a while. Foster has had some tough fights and beaten some decent opponents. I might cheer for Brown, but I'll bet on Foster.

Aaron Simpson vs Mark Munoz (middleweight)
Munoz is a very decent fighter who is much more suited to the middleweight division than his previous status as a light heavyweight. Simpson is a strong wrestler with KO power, which may give him the edge in this fight. I'm picking Simpson.

Karo Parisyan vs Dennis Hallman (welterweight)
Karo (hopefully) makes his return to the octagon against the man who has beaten Matt Hughes twice and never lost (which gives him a leg up over 2-1 GSP). Hallman has VERY good jiu itsu skills with a number of quick submission wins. Can he get Karo to the ground and submit him? Karo has an impressive record himself, but seems to lose big fights just when he's on the cusp of a title shot. He has way too many decision wins for my taste. This is only his second fight in almost two years. I like Karo, but I'll bet on Hallman.

Edson Barboza vs Mike Lullo (lightweight)
Ok, time to make some guesses. Lullo has no profile on Wikipedia and no big fights. Submission skills, though. Barboza is undefeated and knocks guys out. He does have one submission win, so he must have some skills. I'll pick Barboza.

Paul Kelly vs TJ O'Brien (lightweight)
Paul Kelly is a very decent fighter who dropped down to lightweight after a so-so welterweight career. So far he's...so-so. TJ O'Brien is a nobody but has a crazy submission victory record. It's his UFC debut, so Kelly will have a huge experience advantage, but I'll pick the tall, lanky kid to surprise everybody: O'Brien.

Tyson Griffin vs Nik Lentz (lightweight)
The undercard for this event is insane. Is this a dark match? Huh. Lentz is a wrestler who tends to win by decision - a lot of wins, mind you. Griffin is a former contender who is coming off two very disappointing loses. I'll pick the taller Lentz.