UFC 114 Picks

Weird card. This is one of those cards that doesn't look like much on the surface, but I'm betting will actually surprise some folks and provide decent entertainment.

Quinton Rampage Jackson vs Rashad Evans (light heavyweight)
This is the long-awaited fight stemming from The Ultimate Fighter season where these two acted as coaches. The fight was delayed 'cause Jackson took a role in the A-Team movie, much to the disgust and chagrin of the UFC who had gone to the trouble of booking the event in Memphis, Jackson's hometown. Who will win the fight? Hard to say. Both guys have power, Rashad has wrestling skills and speed, so he should get the nod. But Jackson is one of those guys who can end the night with one quick punch as we saw against Wanderlei and others. Jackson has been off for a long time, though, so there's no telling what kind fo shape he'll be in. I can see this fight being dull as hell if Evans can take Jackson down and stay on top. I could also see this fight ending with a highlight-reel knockout. There's a lot on the line here, as the winner is expected to get the first shot at champion Rua. For that reason, I bet Rashad plays it smart, keeps his distance, then takes Jackson down with a quick shot. Jackson, as we saw against Griffin, has zero ability to get off his back. Rashad will do that for 15 minutes and get the nod. Boring, but effective. I'm picking Evans.

Michael Bisping vs Dan Miller (middleweight)
Michael Bisping is the favourite, having had bigger fights and having been a star on TUF. Don't count Miller out, though. Sure, he's coming off two losses, but they were to Demian Maia and Chael Sonnen who are title contenders. Bisping isn't quite in that class, despite what he might think. Before that, Miller had reeled off three straight wins to kick off his UFC career, two by first round submission. We haven't seen Bisping on his back much (at least not conscious) so it's hard to say how he'd fare if Miller got him down. I'm going with the upset. I bet Miller, who can push the pace just like Bisping, gets Bisping down and submits him or earns the decision. I'll take Miller.

Todd Duffee vs Mike Russow (heavyweight)
Duffee holds the UFC record for fastest knockout (7 seconds) and it may not have been a fluke. He has a 15-second win and a 16-second win. Wow. This guy has crazy power. Russow, though, has a great record himself and tends to submit guys in the first round. So the question may be whether Russow can get Duffee on the ground. I'm gonna say...yes. Again, I'm gonna pick the dog and go with Russow by submission. I bet experience pays off in this one.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs Jason Brilz (light heavyweight)
This one is a bit of a disappointment, of course, as it was supposed to be Nogueira versus Forrest Griffin. Nogueira is one of the UFC's new darlings and he hasn't disappointed yet. He has a terrific record (18-3) including wins over Dan Henderson, Luiz Cane, Vladimir Matyushenko, and two over Strikeforce Heavyweight champ Alistair Overeem. Brilz, on the other hand, is no pushover. He's at 18-2, though his fights have been mostly agianst mid-carders. This could be a great fight. If Brilz wins, it'd be a huge launching pad for him. But I don't see it happeneing. I'm picking Nogueira.

Diego Sanchez vs John Hathaway (welterweight)
I have no idea why Diego is back at welterweight. Lightweight seemed perfect for him and he was clearly on the rise there. A loss to BJ Penn is no tragedy and he might have been right back in the mix if the UFC staged a Sanchez-Florian rematch. Inexplicably, he has jumped back up to welterweight where he is a small fish in a very big pond, ruled by the biggest shark in the aquarium, GSP. Honestly, WTF? Diego seems to have lost a bit of steam recently, going to decision far too often after previously overwhleming his opponents. Hathaway has a perfect record, but hasn't fought anyone anywhere near Diego's status. This is a huge fight for him. If he wins, he'll be in title contention quick. If Diego wins, I'm not sure the same holds true (unless the UFC is desperate for new opponents for GSP). If Diego loses...well...zoinks, yo. I'm betting Diego finds a way to win this one, if only by experience.

Amir Sadollah vs Dong Hyun Kim (welterweight)
Amir was the surprising winner of TUF 7 and has gone 2-1 since with some impressive cardio work. Kim is "The Stun Gun" and although he was impressive in his debut, has been less than spectacular since. His loss to Karo Parisyan was overtruned after Karo tested positive for banned painkillers, so he maintains his undefeated record (12-0-1 [1]). Still, I'm gonna bet Kim finds a way to overwhelm Sadollah and finish him before it reaches a decision. I'm picking Kim.

Efrain Escudero vs Dan Lauzon (lightweight)
Another TUF winner in Escudero. He has looked pretty good, but is coming off a loss. Lauzon is the brother of TUF competitor Joe Lauzon, but hasn't impressed me all tnat much, despite his record. Both of these fighters are known for their submission skills and ending fights early. This could be the fight of the night. I'll pick Escudero.

Melvin Guillard vs Waylon Rowe (lightweight)
Guillard was a rising star once upon a time. Rowe doesn't even have a Wikipedia page. That gives you some idea how much Guillard's stock has fallen. Both of these guys are known for their KO power. This could be a barnburner and over quick. Since Guillard doesn't have to worry about submissions, he may actually win this one (and not undeservedly, like he did against Ronnys Torres). I'll pick Guillard.

Luiz Cane vs Cyrille Diabate (light heavyweight)
Cane will be looking to rebound form his loss to Little Nog. I'd never heard of Diabate, but he has a good record and has fought some big names (and lost, mind you). Still, I'm gonna pick Cane.

Aaron Riley vs Joe Brammer (lightweight)
Riley is one of those fighters who is tough to peg. He looks good once, then crap the next. Brammer has a nice record to start his career but has lost to the only name he's faced. I'm gonna pick Riley on experience.

Jesse Forbes vs Ryan Jensen (middleweight?)
A lot was expected from Forbes as he competed in TUF 3, but he hasn't lived up to the hype (certainly not his own!). He's been fighting in the smaller circuits for a while, ammassing a respectable record (13-4). Jensen has had a rough go recently, going 3-5 after being 11-1. But he was thrown to the wolves in his early UFC days, losing to Demian Maia and Thales Leites. I'm not sure how he has managed to stick around this second time around, going 1-2 in his last three UFC fights. This is one of those fights where the winner earns a reprieve and the loser goes home, I bet. Neither of these guys is used to going the distance, so this could be another quick one. I'll pick...Jensen.

Who you got?