UFC 112 : Silva vs Maia in Abu Dhabi

This has been an insanely busy few weeks for the UFC, and it all culminates with UFC 112 in Abu Dhabi.

This is going to be an open air event, which ought to pose some new and interesting challenges for some of the fighters. It will be a 7pm local start time, so it’s hard to say if the sun will be a factor – even a bright reflection could be distracting. Temperature and humidity may also play a part in these fights. This could turn into something out of a Pro Line commercial.

Alright, let’s get to the picks.

Anderson Silva vs Demian Maia (middleweight) – Anyone who tells you they think Maia will win is lying or an imbecile. Sure, Maia has a chance, but there’s no way anyone would bet on it without some serious odds – and even then a win would be like wining the lottery. We’ve seen what Silva does with jiu jitsu guys: he stands and bangs and when they fall down to try to lure him into their guard, Silva politely invites them to stand back up. The last jiu jitsu guy to try that got booted out of the UFC soon afterwards for one of the most lacklustre efforts ever seen (with the notable exception of Kalib Starnes, of course). Add in the fact that Maia’s chin has previously been exposed thanks to Nate Marquardt and this has all the makings of a walk in the park for Silva and a very very boring fight. Silva will win.

BJ Penn vs Frankie Edgar (lightweight) – Another fight featuring a massive underdog but in this one he has at least a puncher’s chance. Edgar is an up-tempo spirited fighter but I’m not sure he’s anywhere near ready for the likes of BJ Penn. He has beaten some great fighters (Mark Bocek, Jim Miller, Spencer Fisher, Tyson Griffin, Sean Sherk), with his only loss against Gray Maynard – the guy most likely to get the next shot (and probably should have gotten this one). Penn is a well-rounded fighter looking to get yet another re-match against GSP for the welterweight crown when, really, he should be focusing on the belt he has. It’s sad that people are already talking about Penn having “cleaned out” the lightweight division when he has only defeated Kenny Florian, Diego Sanchez and Sean Sherk since earning the crown. Is that all the lightweight division has to offer? Sure, Sanchez and Florian are top dogs, but 3 defenses do not make for a “cleaning out” if you ask me. The problem is that Florian is acting as a bodyguard, protecting Penn from challenges by the likes of Clay Guida, Roger Huerta and even Takanori Gomi by defeating these guys before they can get their hands on Penn. Personally, I’d love to see a Penn-Guida fight to see if Penn could handle the intensity. For now, while I’d love to see Edgar take the Ego from Hilo down a notch, I’m picking Penn to win.

Matt Hughes vs Renzo Gracie (welterweight) – This is strictly a stunt fight. That’s to say that it was made not because these guys are on equal footing but because of their names and rivalry. Hughes defeated a geriatric Royce Gracie back in 2006 and now I guess cousin Renzo is out for revenge. Good luck with that. If Hughes, once dubbed the most dominant welterweight champion in UFC history, can’t defeat the likes of Renzo Gracie then he ought to retire. Renzo hasn’t fought in 3 years and has only 6 fights since 2001. He’s riding a three fight win streak, but against has-beens Pat Miletich and Carlos Newton and a DQ win over Frank Shamrock. Before that, he’d lost 6 of 7. I don’t know what Hughes thinks of these fights the UFC has been giving him (one fight per year?) since he lost his belt to GSP, but they certainly aren’t the ones that will get him back in contention. I’m picking Hughes to ground and pound his way to a decision.

Terry Etim vs Rafael Dos Anjos (lightweight) – This could be a very good fight and might steal the show. Dos Anjos has dangerous jiu jitsu while Etim is a well-rounded fighter with, I feel, a more impressive history. I imagine this will be fast-paced and lots of fun. I’m picking Etim.

Kendall Grove vs Mark Munoz (middleweight) – I like Grove, but he has always been one of those “on the bubble” fighters to me. He looks great in some fights and absolutely horrendous in others. He’s susceptible to knockouts and that’s Munoz’s game. I gotta say I like Munoz in this one if he can get inside.

Alexander Gustafsson vs Phil Davis (light heavyweight) – This is another candidate for fight of the night and features a battle of the unbeatens. I’m betting this one ends in a TKO early. Davis is the only one with a name on his record (a very impressive mauling of Brian Stann) but Gustafsson has more fights and tends to end them faster. Not to mention that he, too, has a wrestling background and ought to be able to defend against any Davis takedown attempts. I’ll pick Gustafsson.

Paul Taylor vs John Gunderson (welterweight?) – Can’t say I know much about Gunderson (listed as a lightweight), but Taylor always puts on a good performance (he has earned Fight of the Night three times in eight UFC fights). While he has an impressive record, Gunderson’s only fight of note is a loss to Bart Palaszewski three years ago. Taylor is susceptible to submissions, though, and Gunderson is a sub specialist. Tough call… I like Taylor, but I’ll pick Gunderson for the upset.

Nick Osipczak vs Rick Story (welterweight) – Nick doesn’t have many fights on his record, but he was impressive at times on The Ultimate Fighter. Story has been fairly impressive so far in the UFC and his wrestling background may prove to be the difference. I like Nick, but I’m going to pick the more experienced Story.

DeMarques Johnson vs Brad Blackburn (welterweight) – This is a tough one to pick because neither one of these fighters has been particularly impressive. Johnson famously lost the TUF finale to James Wilks while Blackburn has a mediocre record including a loss to Amir Sadollah. Johnson ought to pose similar problems as Sadollah did for Blackburn, with perhaps even better jiu jitsu. I’ll take Johnson.

Paul Kelly vs Matt Veach (lightweight) – Kelly is another Brit who puts on good shows. In fact, he defeated Paul Taylor in a Fight of the Night match-up a couple of years ago. He has had mixed success in the UFC, though, losing to Marcus Davis and, in his last fight, Dennis Siver via highlight spinning back kick. Veach was undefeated until he ran into Paul Kelly in his last fight. SO Kelly beat Taylor who beat Veach. Does that make Kelly the favourite? Probably. Kelly tends to go to decision, though, whereas Veach is a finisher. I’m gonna go against the odds and pick Veach in this one.

Jon Madsen vs Mostapha Al Turk (heavyweight) – The only heavyweight fight on the card and it’s a dark match. This is another tough one to call. Al Turk has more experience, but has had mediocre outings recently, losing to Cheick Kongo and Mirko Cro Cop (thanks to a poke in the eye). Madsen was only so-so on TUF. Both like to bang, but Madsen has a wrestling background and would be wise to use it. If Turk loses, surely it will mean his exit from the UFC, thin division or no. Against my better judgement, I’ll pick Al Turk to redeem himself and earn a reprieve.

Whoa - 11 fights, including two title fights. That's one packed card. Will it be a boring, predictable one, or will one of these underdogs shock the world?