UFC 100 - Predictions

Brock Lesnar vs Frank Mir (heavyweight)

Lesnar has to learn how to finish. He can be overwhelming early, but if he has to go 25 minutes with Mir, odds are good Mir will find a way to submit the big man somehow. Mir won’t be surprised by Lesnar’s speed and power again, and ought to be able to weather the early storm.

My money’s on: Mir. I like Lesnar and hope he wins, but I just think Mir is smart enough to find some way to submit the monster.

Georges St. Pierre vs Thiago Alves (welterweight)

This ought to be interesting. Alves is powerful and that’s usually GSP’s game. GSP will use his reach and boxing to keep Thiago at bay and then maybe throw him on his ass when he has the advantage. It’ll be interesting to see if Thiago can take GSP down.

My money’s on: GSP. No way I bet against him. He’s too smart and too good. He only loses by fluke.

Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping (middleweight)

This could have been a main event fight, but with this being UFC 100, well… This is of course the Ultimate Fighter coaches match. Team UK clearly won the show, but who will win the final battle? Henderson is the vet but he really hasn’t been very impressive since coming over from Pride where he was a champ in two weight classes.

My money’s on: Bisping. I’ve been back and forth on this one. I think Henderson would have won if he were 5 years younger, but he just seems to have lost a step. I see Bisping winning a decision if it stays on the feet. Could be a pretty boring fight. Hope I’m wrong.

John Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago (welterweight)

I don’t know too much about Thiago, but Fitch is a beast. He was humbled by GSP, but who hasn’t been recently?

My money’s on: Fitch. He’s a warrior.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Alan Belcher (middleweight)

Akiyama has an impressive record, but Belcher has been the guy in the UFC trenches. He also enjoys a significant size advantage. The UFC will want Akiyama to get the nod so that they can start building him up. Both have beaten Denis Kang, which is no small feat.

My money’s on: Belcher. It’s about time he stepped up and lived up to the rep.

UNDERCARD

Mark Coleman vs. Stephan Bonnar (light heavyweight) - If Bonnar doesn’t win, he ought to quit. I mean, come on, Coleman? He’s ancient! I’m picking Bonnar. Could be a war.

Mac Danzig vs. Jim Miller (lightweight) – Danzig had momentum coming off the TUF win, but he’s been less than stellar since, to be honest. I’ll pick Miller.

Jon Jones vs. Jake O’Brien (light heavyweight) – Both have had impressive outings. I’ll go with the Martian Manhunter – Jones.

Dong Hyun Kim vs. TJ Grant (welterweight) – Don’t know too much about these guys, but Kim has been impressive and is undefeated. Anyone who can go to a split decision with Karo Parisyan deserves respect. I’ll pick Kim, even though Grant is Canadian.

CB Dollaway vs. Tom Lawlor (middleweight) – Features two TUF grads. On paper, Dollaway ought to be favoured, but he usually finds a way to make fights closer than they ought to be. Lawlor wasn’t impressive on the show. I’ll pick Dollaway in this one.

Matt Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty (lightweight) – Don’t know these guys. Normally I’d go with the height advantage or better record, but they’re not that different. Grice’s UFC results aren’t very impressive while Gugerty went almost three rounds with Spencer Fisher. I’ll take Gugerty.